The paper you linked and others that I am aware of all point to Chinese submarines not surface combatants. So yes, I agree that Chinese submarines can be operational in the Indian Ocean, but they will be limited in number and with little to no chance of rearming after an initial salvo. In such an scenario the only threat it poses is if they are SSBN armed with MRBMs. Which if used will ensure that conflict turn nuclear, something both sides will try to avoid.
I disagree with your statement on your second point. While these ports that China is constructing can be used for military purpose, it does not mean they will be used for military purposes. These bases are simply not enough to support a major Chinese fleet in wartime. China has little to gain from engaging the Indian Fleet in the Indian Ocean.
Moreover China has little to gain from fighting India at all.
You must understand that neither side wants to fight the other. War is not something most sane leaders wish for. For full-scale war between China and India to occur, there has to be a serious and direct reason for it to happen. Otherwise India will not be dragged into a war with China and vise versa.
No. The military bases that the US has in Okinawa and mainland Japan are not worth it for China to risk starting a war with Japan. Simply put, China has the means to engage the USN near its coastal waters without the need to engage targets within Japan. It's strike aircrafts, submarines, destroyers, and ballistic missiles were designed to repel a moving US carrier battlegroup, thus it is unlikely that they would resort to attacking US military bases in Japan. As for South Korean bases, they pose even less threat to China, the airbases in Korea are not worth it to start a diplomatic crisis.
However even if it does target US military targets within these military bases, Japan or Korea won't go to war with China. First lets talk about Japan. You have to think about this issue not from an American POV, but rather a Japanee POV.
The US military bases were never popular in Japan, it has caused alot of tension between the Japanese public and the government. While the Abe government is pushing for closer ties with the US, it would be foolish to believe that there are no opposition to this. Furthermore, Japan has little to gain, but out of any nation the most to lose in a war with China. Japan and China are extremely interconnceted, and a war with China will spell doom for Japan's economy.
Firstly, Japan's heavy reliance on Chinese Rare Earth Elements, and Russian oil is a key reason why they will not easily go to war with its much larger Asian neighbours. Secondly, Japanese companies have invested an enourmous amount of capital in China since the 1980's, this will be gone in an instant should war break out. Lastly, the majority of the Japanese public do not support American military bases in their country, would definitely not support the decision to go to war with both China and Russia over an American military base. An intelligent Japanese government would quickly realize that going to war with China over an American military base does not benefit Japan in any form or fashion, and could very possibly lose support from the Japanese voters. Similar reasons for Korea aswell.
China would certainly not want to extend the conflict with Japan or Korea. Nor would Korea or Japan want to go to war with China. There is simply nothing to be gained whatsoever.
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