What would the impact be on Spain be if the new world was discovered much later?

[Xenophonte]

in Spain lack of overseas domains would start mattering around the time of the War of the League of Cognac, as Charles would have to find something other than Venezuela to pawn for loans

In this scenario, it would be probably to butterflied OTL Habsburg interest on Castile and/or if not at very least it would mean that wouldn't be the American source of income so as well as that the ressources and the adventurers/fortune seekers energies spent in the Caribbean/Mesoamerica, these would be spent or redirected in other directions... Perhaps, as suggested, in a more Mediterranean/N. African, strategy...

They would probably interact with the natives enough over time to learn about maize, cassava and sweet potato from them, which they can all grow in other places. In any permanent stations on Brazil's coast they would plant cane plants for sugar, the main challenge would be keeping up a labor supply to cut and process it.

Still, would be the highly valued Tree Pau Brasil or Brazilwood, that by itself would grant that the Portuguese would lay claim on Brazil and at least set some extractive settlement there for get/cut it and ship it back to Europe...

 

[holycookie]

it's likely the portuguese still discover Brazil, but see little point in penetrating much further west, thus slowing down their exploration of south america sgnfcntly

This is unlikely to happen, if the Portuguese do not try to secure Brazil they will lose it to France. Who was disputing the region with the Portuguese. At the same time it is interesting with the Portuguese advancing further into Asia.

the northern and southern landmasses are likely to get two different names

Hardly, The American continent got its name from Americo Vespucci. It may have another name, that is very likely. But it will hardly have two separate names.

Very interesting, do you think it takes the Inca all the way up through Colombia, to Panama, and the Caribbean coast?

The Incas must first reform their government, and then expand. Their goverment form weakened the new emperor too much, forcing him to conquer new territories to strengthen himself. But their power base has always been the Andes mountains. So in theory they would continue to try to expand in this mountain range. How far they will go is difficult to say. But to be honest, they conquered the part of the region that really mattered, most likely they tried to consolidate the territories. Similar to the Roman Empire. A period of expansion followed by a period focused on consolidation and reform.

What about the other direction, do they extend down from the Andes to the Chaco, the Pampas, and the La Plata river to the Atlantic

They have to deal with the Mapuche and Tupiniquim first. Both groups are difficult to deal with. During the Spanish invasion of the OTL the Mapuche and the Incas were at war or at least raiding each other.

 

[raharris1973]

i agree w/ pretty much everything. imo portuguese exploration of the americas is going to be quite delayed, but not at all avoided
what I think would happen is that a "less glamorous" colonization w/ more trade and exploration rather than outright conquest of fabulously wealthy empires would (over a longer period of time) prbbly attract less attention international attention, less people overall and (maybe) a different kind of people too: more Vespucci than Cortez

As soon as the Portuguese touch the Inca, and maybe even the gold bejeweled Muisca, it is getting "glamorous". It's just all those Tupi, Caribs, Guarani, and Mapuche on other parts of the coast who really are not that glamorous.

 

[Aluma]

This is unlikely to happen, if the Portuguese do not try to secure Brazil they will lose it to France. Who was disputing the region with the Portuguese. At the same time it is interesting with the Portuguese advancing further into Asia

It keeps resetting to a french world doesnt it?

Kurt be like:
I am inevitable

 

[DJ03]

Hardly, The American continent got its name from Americo Vespucci. It may have another name, that is very likely. But it will hardly have two separate names.

quite the opposite instead. if north and south america get discovered (as i suppose) by different people, from different countries, in different periods, before the fact they are connected by Mesoamerica becomes common knowledge, they're very likely to get two different names: America for the southern and idkw for the northern

This is unlikely to happen, if the Portuguese do not try to secure Brazil they will lose it to France. Who was disputing the region with the Portuguese. At the same time it is interesting with the Portuguese advancing further into Asia

my scenario was more of a short-to-mid-term one (before large, wealthy empires and precious metals get discovered), long term I agree Brazil is going to attract unwanted competition, possibly even from France, but before the New World demonstrates any serious economic potential besides brazilwood, i believe european military adventursim would be lacking
the long term is a different issue: by the late XVI the trade and plantations revenues would dfntly attract french, english, or whoever else might be interested

In this scenario, it would be probably to butterflied OTL Habsburg interest on Castile and/or if not at very least it would mean that wouldn't be the American source of income so as well as that the ressources and the adventurers/fortune seekers energies spent in the Caribbean/Mesoamerica, these would be spent or redirected in other directions... Perhaps, as suggested, in a more Mediterranean/N. African, strategy...

i doubt the resources that were poured in the americas between 1492 and 1526 would be enough to make a radical difference on french or spanish war planning.
we could make the argument that many of otl's conquistadors &co would end up as soldiers in some european/ mediterranean conflict (heck, Cortés was part of the Algiers expedition iotl), but their presence introduces too many unknowns and, when making a general scenario, I prefer to avoid them and stick conservatively close to otl

 

[Pelranius]

I think the neccessity to split the empire (most importantly the Netherlands) becomes more prominent as without American money flowing in, any potential rebellion within a already hostile Europe (Schmalkaldic war, France) is almost impossible to surpress.

Thus I think Spain overstretches itself. However if the Habsburg branches simply manage to get along, or the Spanish Habsburgs to produce more healthy sons, it is very easy to bestow the wasp's nest called the Burgundian inheritance onto some second son (or as dowry for a Spanish Habsburg princess and Austrian Habsburg prince).

However the long run I think Spain is better off; A Spain merely confined to the Iberian peninsula and Napels (either ex or including Portugal) can solely focus on the Ottoman threat and expanding in Italy and reconquista-ing North Africa. 'Let the HRE and their Lutherans sort out themselves' will be the likely approach. Preventing several bankruptcies. And with American money bound to flow in some time after 1550 (as I cant see Spain not competing in America after its eventual discovery) I think they could be highly succesfull in countering the Ottomans (not losing Tunis, etc.).

Spain won't make much headway in North Africa, since firstly, it's not a very good rate of return in dickering around in the Atlas Mountains, and more importantly, Italian adventures means competition with France, which takes a LOT of resources.

 

[DocJamore]

Spain becoming a European power was not decided by the discovery of the Americas but the marriages of the royal family (especially into the Habsburgs). Even without Columbus most of European history would be mostly the same up to the election of Charles V. Though after that point it would start to diverge rather quickly from OTL I would say.

I remember reading somewhere on the site that Spain could have tried to over pay off its loans by allowing German bankers to collect taxes on their behalf. Maybe not in all of Spain but at least in Italy. I always thought that was an interesting idea.

 

[Xenophonte]

i doubt the resources that were poured in the americas between 1492 and 1526 would be enough to make a radical difference on french or spanish war planning.
we could make the argument that many of otl's conquistadors &co would end up as soldiers in some european/ mediterranean conflict (heck, Cortés was part of the Algiers expedition iotl), but their presence introduces too many unknowns and, when making a general scenario, I prefer to avoid them and stick conservatively close to otl

I think that you may be underestimating both the scope of the settling and exploring activity that was developed by the Crown, in the first decade following Colon's coming back and the amount of human and financial resources spent/invested on it...
As way of example, short after Columbus's third travel, was sent the five hundred men expedition of Fco. de Bobadilla, (to investigate and judge to the Columbus brothers). And before Columbus's fourth one, was sent the bigger one of N. de Ovando (the first governor of the Hispaniola /St. Domingo) that transported 2500 people in a fleet of thirty ships to America. Meanwhile Vespucio exploration/cartographic travels were being organized, financed and carried out. All, of which meant a enormous financial investment without mention a bigger one logistical effort for one still quite mediaeval Castilian Kingdom economy and royal administration/government.

 

[raharris1973]

If the continents get two different names, by the Portuguese and English, they *still* might end up very similar: Brasil after pau-brasil or brazilwood for South America, and Brasil, for the legendary western land of Hy-Braseal for North America. Maybe Brasil and Braseal to differentiate?

Or the English label Newfoundland might stick to the whole North American continent , not just the island? That would be very “anglisc”.

 

[holycookie]

It keeps resetting to a french world doesnt it?

Kurt be like:
I am inevitable

It has more to do with the fact that if there are two groups competing for an area and one of them loses or is not interested, the other will obviously win. The same thing in India, if the UK is weaker there is a greater chance of India being French for example. In relation to the world being French, to be honest, France almost became hegemonic in Europe a few times at least.

they're very likely to get two different names: America for the southern and idkw for the northern

They may have different local names, but the continental mass as a whole will have a single name.

but before the New World demonstrates any serious economic potential besides brazilwood, i believe european military adventursim would be lacking

the problem is intention. France, or rather the naval and merchant nobility, wanted the region to extract brazilwood. This was the first reason for this exploration. So even if the Incas and Aztecs hadn't been discovered, the region would still be super attractive for the French. Now who would be super interested in the Incas and Aztecs would be Portugal. In relation to European military adventursim, I think it's likely that remains strong, they were exploring the world at large. And even assuming it was weak, the region of Brazil did not need an army to be colonized. The region is not Mexico or Pero.

Or the English label Newfoundland might stick to the whole North American continent , not just the island? That would be very “anglisc”.

Maybe England will use a specific name for it, but that will hardly be the name used by the rest.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

If the continents get two different names, by the Portuguese and English, they *still* might end up very similar: Brasil after pau-brasil or brazilwood for South America, and Brasil, for the legendary western land of Hy-Braseal for North America. Maybe Brasil and Braseal to differentiate?

Hy Brasil and Low Brasil.

 

[raharris1973]

In relation to the world being French, to be honest, France almost became hegemonic in Europe a few times at least.

Not a bad point. I have said multiple times, that if you go back to the firm establishment of the Frankish Empire of the Merovingians, or certainly the Carolingians, and you made 100 timelines or 1000, there would be about as many where Western Europe is a stable French hegemony as there are where it is divided between a balance of power between smaller states.

 

[holycookie]

Not a bad point. I have said multiple times, that if you go back to the firm establishment of the Frankish Empire of the Merovingians, or certainly the Carolingians, and you made 100 timelines or 1000, there would be about as many where Western Europe is a stable French hegemony as there are where it is divided between a balance of power between smaller states.

To be honest, until basically the Napoleonic era, France had the chance to be hegemonic or at least hegemonic in Western Europe. Balance of power is something much more recent than people think. It's from the 18th century. Before that, the idea of a balance of power as we think of it did not exist.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Given the important role the Gold and Silver played in the Spanish Habsburgs, there would be some major differences of Spain without them. People have rightly talked about how Charles V actually sponsored most of his wars with German and Italian bankers alongside Castilian taxes, meaning that outside of a few times where he will be in bigger debt, the reign of Charles is likely to continue undisturbed.


The problem comes with the start of the reign of Phillip II who will have to deal with not only a resurgent France(that won't got through the death of Henry II given how wild it was) that more than proved itself in the final Italian wars, but also the Dutch revolt and the bankruptcy and debts the kingdom he inherited from his father, except that unlike OTL, he doesn't have the boatloads of silver and gold from the New World to bail Spain out and that's where things get interesting as France will definitely intervene in the Dutch revolt and there won't be a decisive battle like Lepanto, instead skirmishes and raids are much more likely as Spain will have to deal with many places at once but won't have the money for it all.

 

[raharris1973]

It's from the 18th century. Before that, the idea of a balance of power as we think of it did not exist.

It existed, it's just the British/English were rarely pulling their weight in it [although, gotta say, 100 Years War was a big exception, and its resemblance to 'balance of power' vs. France may be no more than a coincidence], the Spanish and HRE were balancing France instead.

 

[traminer]

I think a better pod would be all Columbus' ships being lost at sea and nobody making it back to Europe. The reason for this is that by the 1500s the portuguese and english seem just too likely to stumble into south and north america respectively to prevent the notion of lands beyond the Atlantic from spreading, but not the notion that said land is of any interest

w/o Columbus, we can remove the Caribbean (and by extension Mesoamerica) from the equation, which prevents the short to mid term discovery of large empires and/or gold and silver deposits

it's likely the portuguese still discover Brazil, but see little point in penetrating much further west, thus slowing down their exploration of south america sgnfcntly
if at some point someone other than fishermen were to stumble upon Newfoundland &co, they'd prbbly just report of a cold, lightly populated, forested backwater and not spark any interest in european courts

a funny butterfly of Columbus not making it across the Atlantic would be that, lacking the notion of a central America (even as a collection of islands), the northern and southern landmasses are likely to get two different names

A related possibility, with a much earlier PoD: have Ptolemy estimate the length of the Mediterranean, and with it the world's circumference, with greater accuracy. Part of Columbus' sales pitch (sails pitch?) was that, based on Ptolemy's calculations, India wasn't too far, after all.

Ptolemy was wrong, the Mediterranean was longer than he calculated. Columbus and those informing his pitch formed expectations based on flawed data. If the world were thought to be larger, the change in the expected effort to reach India westward would have made a "no" vastly likelier, and Columbus would have kept sailing down the African coast for Portugal instead.

 

[holycookie]

It existed, it's just the British/English were rarely pulling their weight in it [

In the 16th century, England had no real weight in the world. The fact that they rarely use it has more to do with the fact that they have no real power to compete. England rises much later. it was a secondary power. Weaker again than the great powers like the Habsburg Empire and the Ottomans, weaker than France. It was weaker than Portugal, during the 100 years Castile destroyed the English navy, so much so that they had to ask for Portuguese naval assistance.

although, gotta say, 100 Years War was a big exception, and its resemblance to 'balance of power' vs. France may be no more than a coincidence], the Spanish and HRE were balancing France instead.

The opposite in this era, the Habsburg empire was in charge of the world. That is why the title of universal monarchy was adopted by them. One monarchy that was a special supremacy over all other states. The only reason the they hadn't taken hold in Europe was France. But even so, France was in a bad position, they knew that. These various wars against the Habsburgs were primarily to break the siege they were suffering. France was strong at that time, but the Habsburg Empire, with the discovery of the new world, had infinite money. It´s alliance with the Ottomans was a demonstration of this. They needed help. This alliance was controversial to say the least, but they were desperate. Some things go wrong in the religious French civil war and France would be in the sphere of the universal empire and then the Habsburgs would command Europe. That's why in this era we see France trying to colonize the new world, the alliance with the Ottomans and many other things. They were throwing things against a wall and seeing what stuck.

@DJ03 : The colonization of the new world was pushed by the naval and commercial elite, the Admiralty of Rouen and the merchants/nobility of the city as a whole and set up an immense decoration representing the Brazilian lands with their forest, cutting and transport. burning wood, animals and “natural” fruits for the king of France. To try to convince the king to send more resources to the colonization of the region. There were dances, games and mock battles between Indians and Norman sailors, equally “all naked, tanned and bristling”. High point of the show: the attack on a Portuguese ship that was set on fire. The Indians were housed in a house called the Hôtel de l'Isle du Brazil, from which carved panels depicting scenes from the New World have been preserved. The Portuguese cared little about the colonization of Brazil (this only really changed with the discovery of gold. It was literally the place that no Portuguese immigrants wanted to go. There is literally a poem that says take me to Asia and Africa, not to Brazil), the French Atlantic merchants and navy wanted the colony with intensity. But they had bad luck in OTL and the colony had a violent civil war and soon after,it was invaded by the Portuguese.

 

[raharris1973]

@DJ03 : The colonization of the new world was pushed by the naval and commercial elite, the Admiralty of Rouen and the merchants/nobility of the city as a whole and set up an immense decoration representing the Brazilian lands with their forest, cutting and transport. burning wood, animals and “natural” fruits for the king of France. To try to convince the king to send more resources to the colonization of the region. There were dances, games and mock battles between Indians and Norman sailors, equally “all naked, tanned and bristling”. High point of the show: the attack on a Portuguese ship that was set on fire. The Indians were housed in a house called the Hôtel de l'Isle du Brazil, from which carved panels depicting scenes from the New World have been preserved. The Portuguese cared little about the colonization of Brazil (this only really changed with the discovery of gold. It was literally the place that no Portuguese immigrants wanted to go. There is literally a poem that says take me to Asia and Africa, not to Brazil), the French Atlantic merchants and navy wanted the colony with intensity. But they had bad luck in OTL and the colony had a violent civil war and soon after,it was invaded by the Portuguese.

What gives? Was red dye (from Brazilwood) that much more in fashion in France than in Portugal at the time? The French spelt Brazil with a "z", not and "s"?

 

[holycookie]

What gives? Was red dye (from Brazilwood) that much more in fashion in France than in Portugal at the time?

Well the answer is going to be long. Firstly, politics, you had a dispute between the Atlantic navy and the Mediterranean navy. Second, the Atlantic navy was very decentralized and this would provide the funds needed to reform and truly centralize that navy. When in otl this was only possible centuries in the future. Third french pride, France never accepted the Treaty of Tordesillas ( with it´s king asking to see Adam's will that would exclude France from the division of America), Brazil has been for France the land of all commerce: ""commerce of souls" for Protestants or Catholics ( from Fort Coligny, in Rio de Janeiro, to Fort Saint Louis, in Maranhão), "product trade" by smugglers, pirates or privateers (in Paraíba, São Vicente or Rio de Janeiro for Dugay Trouin, for example) and " trade of ideas” by scientists and artists (from La Condamine to the French Artistic Mission of 1816).

Every trip to Brazil was extremely profitable. Brazilian wood, in addition to being used for clothing, musical instruments and furniture of extreme high-quality , were used to dye paper sheets in the Rouen industry. Not just brazilwood, but animal skins, fruits and exotic seeds. Live animals such as monkeys and parrots (animals highly valued in Europe). Concern for France was so great that the Portuguese king, at the beginning of the 16th century, published a decree ordering all his subjects, under penalty of death, to sink all French ships leaving or arriving from Brazil. And that was not without reason, in 1540 nine ships from Rouen were send to Brazil; fifteen Dieppe ships and ships from Brittany are equipped for the same destination (24 in total). In 1541, thirty to forty ships left for South America and especially Brazil. In 1546, a fleet of twenty-eight ships left Le Havre bound for Brazil.

Fourth reason was geographical position, Brazil's vast coastline presented a very strategic advantage for France. It provided access to the Atlantic Ocean, which was crucial for trade and naval power projection. Not only that, but it would allow French privateers to attack any enemy ship that passed the Slave Coast. Disturbing Iberian Asian trade and preventing (or at least greatly increasing the danger) of expeditions from rival nations. In addition, in the future they could hinder the sale of slaves from Africa to the Caribbean or demand a protection tax. Also the control over Brazilian territories would give France would allow the establishment of further colonies ( In africa and asia for example).

*Parmentier complained that the King of France (did not take seriously the influence of the French among the inhabitants of Brazil: "If the King of France had wanted to free himself a little from the French traders in less than four or five years, they would have won the friendship and assured the obedience of the people of these new lands, and this without any other weapons than persuasion and procedures”. For the great captain, in the space of these four or five years “the French would have penetrated further into the interior of the country than the Portuguese in fifty years , and the inhabitants would probably persecute the latter” * - Barbosa, Mario de Lima, 1923, Les Français dans l’histoire du Brésil, Rio de Janeiro-Paris, Briguiet & Blanchard.

The idea of colonizing this region comes primarily from Nicolas Durand de Villegaignon, born in Provins in 1510, gentleman and soldier, knight of Malta and vice-admiral of Brittany, whose classmate was Calvin at the University of Orleans. In 1553, he pleaded with Gaspard de Chatillon-Coligny, admiral of France, for a project to colonize Brazil. The latter quickly understood the political interest of such a colonial expansion that would consist in dealing a blow to Iberian hegemony in America, which easily convinced Henry II: “A young and strong France would emerge overseas" . Basically the idea of colonizing Brazil became a popular trend among the naval nobility and traders. It was the thing of the moment, the topic that never went away, a fever about a grand French empire over the world that would begin with the colonization of Brazil.

A curious thing was that while the Catholic French colonists mixed with the natives and had mixed children, the protestants (Calvinists and Lutherans) vehemently refused to have relations and contacts with the natives. A French philosopher and historian in the 20th century said: "French Calvinists who were all inflated and triumphant, tried to create an exclusively white colony in Brazil and left the country without leaving traces of colonization."

The French spelt Brazil with a "z", not and "s"?

Brésil

(edited after the message) PS: The intense French maritime activity is accompanied by numerous acts of piracy and aggression against the Portuguese to try to expel them from the region, both in Brazilian waters (the first French ship was boarded in Brazil in 1504, in the bay of the river Paraguaçu), as well as at mandatory crossing points on return routes (Azores, Ireland Sea and other important connections). The situation got so bad that the French Atlantic merchant and military navy was attacking any Portuguese ship they encountered on the way to Brazil. Basically this navy (France had two for each ocean, the Atlantic and Mediterranean) was in an open war with the Portuguese navy (even if France was not) That is why, in a spirit of appeasement, the French and Portuguese sovereigns, after signing a treaty of friendship in Lyon (July 14, 1536), they convened in Bayonne, in 1537, a Court of Awards, intended to resolve conflicts between French and Portuguese shipowners. This Court, however, did not bring any agreement, except that Francisco I undertook to prohibit his subjects from trading in Brazil. The Atlantic navy pretended to obey, but continued to act aggressively towards the Portuguese. This is something repetitive in this era, the Atlantic navy did not always obey the king. An gran admiral of the Atlantic navy even said that after the king he was the most powerful man in France. This is due to the search for financial sustainability of this navy, which was secondary to the Mediterranean navy and the fact that the ships did not belong to the king but rather to nobles who "lent" these ships to the king. So theoretically, if this group becomes stronge enough, the king will have to deal with a parallel state using the colonial empire to strengthen itself against the Mediterranean navy and royal decisions against their interests.

 

[raharris1973]

So theoretically, if this group becomes stronge enough, the king will have to deal with a parallel state using the colonial empire to strengthen itself against the Mediterranean navy and royal decisions against their interests.

Hmm, did this potential threat from a rogue, nobility sponsored fleet, and the colonial revenues it may capture, and not share entirely with the Royal fish, cause Henri II or later Kings to try to redirect resources away from it or starve it of royal/metropolitan resources, leading to things like zero follow up of the Verrazano expedition on the eastern North American coast and only very slow follow up of the Cartier voyages up the St. Lawrence?

Also, your whole explanation is great for explaining the French mania and enthusiasms. Why were the Portuguese, by contrast, so ho-hum and unimpressed with the same place and potentialities? Was it because they were overwhelmed by all the other successes falling into their lap, like West Africa, Kongo, the Persian Gulf, the *real* India, the *real* Indies, China, and Japan? And I guess, in the end, the Portuguese didn't let Brazil go. When challenged for it, first by the French, later by the Dutch, they rose to the challenge, invested in its defense, and threw them all out.