What would North Korea be like today if the Cold War never ended?

[Reflection]

North Korea being a dystopian totalitarian hellhole today needs almost no explanation, as it's so infamous for being one of the worst countries to be in that everyone looks to it thanks their god they weren't born there. Especially people in South Korea, or America for that matter. However, it wasn't always like that. North Korea was once looked upon by the Third World as an example of how a country could prosper from communism, and was once the better Korea to be in with South Korea being an impoverished military dictatorship.

Despite the core ideology of Juche (self-reliance) being the ideology of the DPRK, ironically North Korea prospered specifically because it played off the two rival powers of the Eastern Bloc: the Soviet Union and China. They got substantial food and material imports and aid from both of them, and North Koreans enjoyed a high standard of living, and they could actually travel abroad (to other Eastern Bloc countries at least), with it being common for students and workers from North Korea to be in places like Moscow, Beijing, East Berlin and the like. They also exported goods to other Eastern Bloc countries, most prominently their vast oil and gas reserves. Basically, the leadership was able to greatly benefit North Korea by exploiting both China and the USSR to their advantage and playing them against each other (they weren't unaware of what was happening, but found it preferable to losing influence to the other side).

Of course, it all came crashing down in the early 1990s, when suddenly the Cold War ended and there was no USSR to support North Korea. Without the critical aid they received that allowed them to prosper, the entire country collapsed in on itself and turned into the total dystopia we know it as today.

So I wonder what North Korea would be like today if the USSR was still around and the Cold War was still ongoing. What would North Korea be like compared to South Korea (which started its liberalization towards the end of the Cold War), what would its status be on the world stage, and could it still fall into a dystopian state just by the insane Kim dynasty that runs it, even with all the backing by the Soviets and the Chinese?

 

[GSD310]

In OTL, Gorbachev visited China in 1989 and Sino-Soviet relations were heading for rapprochement or at the very least a relaxation of tensions. I wonder if the USSR was to survive, whether the handling of DPRK would become an item on the agenda as relations got better. Perhaps the USSR and China jointly making aid to the DPRK conditional on the DPRK undertaking economic reforms?

 

[RedSword12]

North Korea could still collapse into a third-world hellhole hermit state, or it could reform into a relatively successful capitalist dictatorship like its bigger cousin. Or it could collapse and successfully liberalize, or it could collapse and become an oligarchical hellhole like Russia became under Yeltsin and his chosen successor Putin. The possibilities are endless, in no small part because the Cold War lasting longer would require a substantially different situation than OTL, which makes predicting how this affects North Korea extremely difficult.

 

[Sport25ing]

less hungry people + more "richer" + more modern equipment (plus no nukes due to be under Chinese and Soviet umbrela - or at least less powerfull ones)

 

[FlyingSquirrel]

Are older North Koreans who remember life during the Cold War likely to be more skeptical of the government's propaganda? For that matter, are there many North Koreans who *do* believe most of it, or are they mostly just playing along to stay out of the regime's sights?

 

[arrowiv]

Soviet/NK relations were never really that cordial at all, actually. In 1956, both the USSR and China actually attempted to remove Kim Senior and replace him with a more moderate and pragmatic leader. Unfortunately, Kim Senior outsmarted them all. Also in 1968, the Soviets strongly criticized the DPRK for capturing the USS Pueblo and Chinese Red Guards even called Kim Senior "a fat pig"!

 

[HanEmpire]

If USSR survives then the cheap Soviet chemical fertilizer aid to North Korea will continue, and the Arduous March won't take place. Not suffering a mass famine and breakdown of the entire economy would certainly improve the place.

 

[athgtq16129]

or it could collapse and become an oligarchical hellhole like Russia became under Yeltsin and his chosen successor Putin.

An overlooked scenario was discussed about the fate of North Korea in the Death of Russia timeline, where the Kim leadership is overthrown by China, who appoints a puppet leader and reforms the country after itself, now the latter scenario that I will describe did not happened in that timeline, but comments speculated that after North Korea having economic reforms while remaining un-democratic like China, it could become a haven for organized crime syndicates to operate in and out of, similar to OTL Albania and Russia.

This also reminds me of the extremely outdated book The Coming War with Japan (1991) by George Friedman and Meredith LeBard, which took the 1980s "Japan is the future" pop culture predictions to its logical conclusion, where Japan becomes an expansionist great power and rebels against the United States, in it, North Korea is shown as an ally of this Neo-Imperial Japan(!?), implying that Friedman in the late 1980s expected some kind of socio-economic reforms to have occurred in North Korea by the 2000s.

I have been working on a hobby timeline set in an outdated, retro-futuristic world seen from 1980s cyberpunk and sci-fi (especially cyberpunk anime), where the Cold War doesn't really "never ends", but it slowly evolves into something different, with Japan forming its own independent faction in the conflict, and the borders of the 1980s more or less staying the same (i.e. the USSR, East Germany, Apartheid South Africa + Bantustans still exist well into the 21st century, and etc.)

I don't know why, but I find the idea of a reformed North Korea allied to a Neo-Imperialist superpower Japan, while being an organized crime-ridden corrupt state under the influence of the kkangpae, yakuza, and triads is such a cool scenario to me, I can imagine a Black Lagoon-analogue in this TL, where it is set in North Korea instead of Thailand, so much potential for the unique cinema, anime, manga, and pop culture that would be inspired by the situation of this alt-North Korea, as well as the potential for North Korea itself to import its media and culture abroad more efficiently.

Another thing that comes to mind will be how this will affect the Korean diaspora if the country permits its citizens to leave and immigrate abroad, creating a lot of emigration similar with what happened following the OTL fall of the Eastern Bloc, with many of its workforce leaving for Western Europe and leaving their home countries economically and demographically behind, how would the North and South Korean diaspora communities treat one another? would they get along well and consider themselves a single nation, strengthening the calls for unification, or ironically, cause a bigger divergence in identity between the north and south?

 

[phoenixdefender]

It'd probably manage to avoid the total economic collapse that took place in the 1990s. I'd say it'd just be a pretty mediocre place to live in, even if we consider the DPRK taking up economic reforms. Kim Jong Un has been doing market reforms since pretty early on in his reign, but do we think it's any more of a good place to live in? Rural poverty would still be very widespread. That said, Songun politics would be de-emphasized, and maybe the efforts at Korean reunification in the early 1990s could be more extensive.

 

[LeX]

An overlooked scenario was discussed about the fate of North Korea in the Death of Russia timeline, where the Kim leadership is overthrown by China, who appoints a puppet leader and reforms the country after itself, now the latter scenario that I will describe did not happened in that timeline, but comments speculated that after North Korea having economic reforms while remaining un-democratic like China, it could become a haven for organized crime syndicates to operate in and out of, similar to OTL Albania and Russia.

This also reminds me of the extremely outdated book The Coming War with Japan (1991) by George Friedman and Meredith LeBard, which took the 1980s "Japan is the future" pop culture predictions to its logical conclusion, where Japan becomes an expansionist great power and rebels against the United States, in it, North Korea is shown as an ally of this Neo-Imperial Japan(!?), implying that Friedman in the late 1980s expected some kind of socio-economic reforms to have occurred in North Korea by the 2000s.

I have been working on a hobby timeline set in an outdated, retro-futuristic world seen from 1980s cyberpunk and sci-fi (especially cyberpunk anime), where the Cold War doesn't really "never ends", but it slowly evolves into something different, with Japan forming its own independent faction in the conflict, and the borders of the 1980s more or less staying the same (i.e. the USSR, East Germany, Apartheid South Africa + Bantustans still exist well into the 21st century, and etc.)

I don't know why, but I find the idea of a reformed North Korea allied to a Neo-Imperialist superpower Japan, while being an organized crime-ridden corrupt state under the influence of the kkangpae, yakuza, and triads is such a cool scenario to me, I can imagine a Black Lagoon-analogue in this TL, where it is set in North Korea instead of Thailand, so much potential for the unique cinema, anime, manga, and pop culture that would be inspired by the situation of this alt-North Korea, as well as the potential for North Korea itself to import its media and culture abroad more efficiently.

Another thing that comes to mind will be how this will affect the Korean diaspora if the country permits its citizens to leave and immigrate abroad, creating a lot of emigration similar with what happened following the OTL fall of the Eastern Bloc, with many of its workforce leaving for Western Europe and leaving their home countries economically and demographically behind, how would the North and South Korean diaspora communities treat one another? would they get along well and consider themselves a single nation, strengthening the calls for unification, or ironically, cause a bigger divergence in identity between the north and south?
View attachment 848895

I spent a minute looking at that map and wondering why the ROK existed in 1942. 😂 Then I realized it was an alternate year 2000.

This scenario is fascinating because North Korea is in some sense a spiritual successor to Imperial Japan. There is almost an esoteric affinity between the two and somehow one can see them as buddies or at least "strategic partners" in a post-Cold War situation.

Adding to your thoughts:

1980s: Following the example of the PRC, Kim Il Sung's technocrat son Kim Jong Il sets the country on the path of limited economic reforms, allowing citizens a measure of freedom to do business. At the macro level, Pyongyang encourages free(er) trade with China, the reforming Soviet Union, and other Asian countries.

1988-89: The Japanese Ministry of Finance preempts the attempts by the "princes of the yen" to launch their "economic coup," allowing Japan to maintain strong economic growth. The move towards greater state intervention in the Japanese economy is coupled with a growing conservative/nationalist streak in politics.

1989: Protests in Beijing and other cities across China are resolved by compromises by the central government, which blames the social unrest on the "disorderly and speculative" character of economic reforms. The PRC stays more socialist, resulting in slower economic development in the 1990s but less authoritarianism in the long term.

1987-1991: Hardliners in the Soviet regime sideline Gorbachev and roll back the nascent "glasnost." Attempts to maintain control over Eastern Europe are mixed, with the Soviet Army invading Poland to crush the Solidarity movement (resulting in an anti-communist insurgency), while lending full support to keep the SED in power in East Germany, to the point that the DDR is effectively run by the Stasi. However, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Romania manage to undergo democratic transitions, and the Soviets, already stretched to the limit in Poland, do not stop them.

1990s: Japan, seeking to offload its excess productive capacities abroad, engages in aggressive investments across Asia, including the Soviet Union. The LDP defies American geopolitical concerns, leading to a low-level rivalry between the world's two biggest economies.

To offset punitive measures from the US, Japan entertains closer relations with the Soviet Union, which despite the political crackdowns still adheres to the policies of perestroika as the CPSU recognizes the need to "accelerate" and try to play catch-up with the West. In the meantime, Japan and North Korea also signal the intent to trade with each other; this famously results in some South Korean products awkwardly ending up in North Korean markets after being exported to Japan or China.

There is no famine or Arduous March, given the continuation of Soviet aid and beginning of economic reforms. By the end of the 1990s, Japan is investing fairly heavily in North Korean resources and industry.

Relations between North and South Korea remain tense, becoming similar to the OTL situation between China and Taiwan. To maintain its regime, the North Korean government restricts emigration, allowing its citizens only to travel to the Soviet Union and China. However, as living standards in North Korea rise, the people accept the lack of freedom.

 

[classyjazzy55]

I spent a minute looking at that map and wondering why the ROK existed in 1942. 😂 Then I realized it was an alternate year 2000.

This scenario is fascinating because North Korea is in some sense a spiritual successor to Imperial Japan. There is almost an esoteric affinity between the two and somehow one can see them as buddies or at least "strategic partners" in a post-Cold War situation.

Adding to your thoughts:

1980s: Following the example of the PRC, Kim Il Sung's technocrat son Kim Jong Il sets the country on the path of limited economic reforms, allowing citizens a measure of freedom to do business. At the macro level, Pyongyang encourages free(er) trade with China, the reforming Soviet Union, and other Asian countries.

1988-89: The Japanese Ministry of Finance preempts the attempts by the "princes of the yen" to launch their "economic coup," allowing Japan to maintain strong economic growth. The move towards greater state intervention in the Japanese economy is coupled with a growing conservative/nationalist streak in politics.

1989: Protests in Beijing and other cities across China are resolved by compromises by the central government, which blames the social unrest on the "disorderly and speculative" character of economic reforms. The PRC stays more socialist, resulting in slower economic development in the 1990s but less authoritarianism in the long term.

1987-1991: Hardliners in the Soviet regime sideline Gorbachev and roll back the nascent "glasnost." Attempts to maintain control over Eastern Europe are mixed, with the Soviet Army invading Poland to crush the Solidarity movement (resulting in an anti-communist insurgency), while lending full support to keep the SED in power in East Germany, to the point that the DDR is effectively run by the Stasi. However, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Romania manage to undergo democratic transitions, and the Soviets, already stretched to the limit in Poland, do not stop them.

1990s: Japan, seeking to offload its excess productive capacities abroad, engages in aggressive investments across Asia, including the Soviet Union. The LDP defies American geopolitical concerns, leading to a low-level rivalry between the world's two biggest economies.

To offset punitive measures from the US, Japan entertains closer relations with the Soviet Union, which despite the political crackdowns still adheres to the policies of perestroika as the CPSU recognizes the need to "accelerate" and try to play catch-up with the West. In the meantime, Japan and North Korea also signal the intent to trade with each other; this famously results in some South Korean products awkwardly ending up in North Korean markets after being exported to Japan or China.

There is no famine or Arduous March, given the continuation of Soviet aid and beginning of economic reforms. By the end of the 1990s, Japan is investing fairly heavily in North Korean resources and industry.

Relations between North and South Korea remain tense, becoming similar to the OTL situation between China and Taiwan. To maintain its regime, the North Korean government restricts emigration, allowing its citizens only to travel to the Soviet Union and China. However, as living standards in North Korea rise, the people accept the lack of freedom.

Tbf, Poland wouldnt be worth the effort due to the fact it was always the hotbed of the warsaw pact, meanwhile the economic reforms in Hungary allowed it to prosper on its own rather than require too much funding from the USSR. Although with the fall of the USSR, North Korea would never have to deal with a massive famine, and it could probably not have to worry about rearming nuclear wise, due to the fact it has the backing of the USSR and China.

And also sanctions making it even more awful to live in.

 

[LeX]

Tbf, Poland wouldnt be worth the effort due to the fact it was always the hotbed of the warsaw pact, meanwhile the economic reforms in Hungary allowed it to prosper on its own rather than require too much funding from the USSR. Although with the fall of the USSR, North Korea would never have to deal with a massive famine, and it could probably not have to worry about rearming nuclear wise, due to the fact it has the backing of the USSR and China.

And also sanctions making it even more awful to live in.

My thinking was that the unrest begins in Poland (as IOTL) and by the time the USSR is invested in putting it down, it realizes it doesnt have the wherewithal to extend the same to the other Warsaw Pact countries.

Perhaps it's more plausible and interesting for @athgtq16129 's scenario that the USSR reforms along the New Union Treaty lines, China becomes a US-leaning democracy after 1989. That way Japan will have a pro-US frenemy in China, and the Soviet Union will still have perestroika-style economic development, making it a more likely partner for Japan/North Korea (which remains repressive in this scenario, though more like OTL China in its intensity).