What would be the effects of a French revolution 20 years early or later?

[Socrates]

Hi all,

I just wanted some brainstorming about what the effects would be if the French had better or worse levels of reform, and the crisis hit in (a) 1769 or (b) 1809?

What are the implications, short term and long term, for:

(a) French economic development
(b) French military capability (on land and at sea)
(c) French alliance systems
(d) How radical the revolution would be
(e) any important category I haven't thought of

 

[BigDestiny]

I'd think earlier would be better for the monarchy, before France spent all that money on the American Revolution. The 13 colonies would be screwed, but the financial crisis would be less serious.

 

[GeographyDude]

Different might be better.

Especially if there are fewer executions.

Better yet, some of the main influential revolutionaries are a little more savvy, realize they need to demonstrate a cleaner break from the past, and call for a moratorium on executions, even for the time being on plain old criminal cases.

 

[Socrates]

I'd think earlier would be better for the monarchy, before France spent all that money on the American Revolution. The 13 colonies would be screwed, but the financial crisis would be less serious.

Wouldn't you need a serious financial crisis earlier to get an earlier revolution?

 

[unprincipled peter]

the difference is in the actors. earlier, you have a different king, so he's going to react differently, and there are different leaders for both sides. Later, some of the actors have either died, or have had their careers massively altered (ie, Napoleon may have withered away as a junior officer if he hadn't had his moment to shine).

predating the AR is only 'good' (it's never good for a monarch to be in a revolution) if it allows the monarch to rally a faction (s) to his side. OTL, Louis xvi was used by various factions, but all were basically aligned against him. debt is still on the table in '69, also not as massive as post AR, so if Louis xv doesn't attempt to tax the privileged he might be able to keep them truly on his side. I'm guessing pretty much every faction is still going to use the revolution to turn the king into a toady for their side. Don't know whether XV has enough political clout to command a faction.

 

[Petete123123]

In 1769 Rousseau and Voltaire would be alive. That surely would have an effect. As I dont really know the history here, I wont comment how that might go.