What would an independent Katanga be like?

[Tsochar]

Katanga, the breakaway nation that existed in what is now the DRC from 1960 to 1963, is a bit of an oddity. The independence of the region was essentially sponsored by the Belgian mining company that operated in the area, and it had a sizable White minority, but unlike Rhodesia and South Africa, it embraced majority rule; it even took up nationalist rhetoric linking itself to some pre-colonial kingdoms.

With that said, it was still a nasty place. The Baluba, one of several ethnic groups native to the region, were against independence and led an insurgency against it, and the president had a habit of imprisoning political opponents. Its military was built around a core of Rhodesian and South African mercenaries, and it had no qualms with working alongside Ian Smith and other white supremacists in the region.

Ultimately, Katanga failed to gain western support; the left-leaning Lumumba in Congo was ousted by the infamous Mobutu with CIA support in 1961, so Katanga's mineral wealth was no longer threatened by the Soviets.

So, what if Mobutu was killed and Lumumba went hard towards the Soviets, leading to the west semi-officially supporting Katanga? Could it survive its insurgencies and maintain itself without falling into segregationism? Probably not, on both counts, but it's still fun to speculate.

 

[GorillaTheater]

It would be a pariah state, at least in Black Africa, which it could probably weather until the Portuguese get kicked out of Angola.

After that things get pretty dicey.

 

[PNWKing]

There was a somewhat famous timeline that had Katanga taken over by a bunch of Objectivists lead by Ayn Rand herself.

 

[walmart]

It would be a pariah state, at least in Black Africa,

Why would it be a pariah state ?

 

[Enigmajones]

There was a somewhat famous timeline that had Katanga taken over by a bunch of Objectivists lead by Ayn Rand herself.

I was going to mention that, though it is sadly unfinished.

 

[GorillaTheater]

Why would it be a pariah state ?

Because it was OTL for its brief existence. The Rhodesian and South African mercenaries were a large part of it. That, and the rather obvious sponsorship of European mining companies.

ETA: Also, the fact that it was a secessionist state in the first place. Black Africa wasn't going to encourage that sort of thing in the slightest.

 

[walmart]

The Rhodesian and South African mercenaries were a large part of it.

So what the Congo along with Biafra used white mercenaries as well at various points

That, and the rather obvious sponsorship of European mining companies.

Same could be said of many of France’s former African colonies along with Biafra.

 

[walmart]

ETA: Also, the fact that it was a secessionist state in the first place. Black Africa wasn't going to encourage that sort of thing in the slightest.

A couple of African nations did recognize Biafra while it was still fighting Nigeria. There no reason why a longer lived Katanga can’t pick up international recognition

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biafra

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

It would be a pariah state, at least in Black Africa,

At first, after a decade or so I'm sure most African states would accept it as just another Malawi (another black state which was fairly cozy with Portugal, South Africa, and Rhodesia).

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

along with Biafra.

And Nigeria, very strongly supported by BP durring the civil war.

 

[Whiteshore]

How would Katangan independence affect Biafra's fight for independence, I may ask?

 

[Rattigan]

I tend to think that the problem with Katanga was really the two-camp situation of the Cold War. So you could embrace the Soviets but that upsets your economic basis (not necessarily permanently - see post-independence Angola - but it's certainly not good). Or you could embrace the mining conglomerates and South African/Rhodesian/general Western aid but that upsets your political instincts (again, not necessarily permanently but it's still a problem). (The other issue was the UN taking a more active role in the Congo after Thant became General Secretary.) I don't particularly see why Katanga couldn't have become an independent nation or received international support, at least in the long term. If Hammarskjold doesn't die and keeps the UN's light-touch policy on the Congo, I could see him being part of negotiating a deal which would have separated Katanga. It just would have required the political leadership of Katanga to choose one of the above geopolitical options. Assuming Tshombe is still around, I could see him going for the second.

 

[kernals12]

Their mineral wealth would be spread over a smaller number of people. And they would almost certainly be more stable than OTL Congo.

 

[LostInNewDelhi]

(link to map)

Here's a map of Katanga. Its two main cities are Lubumbashi (formerly Elizabethville) and Kolwezi. Both cities, along with the Congo copperbelt in general, lie along the Zambian border. Zambia will be an independent country in 1964, with black-majority rule. It will go on to sponsor the MPLA (which had its offices in Lusaka until the Carnation Revolution) and the ANC's militant wing, supplying both with space to train troops and with Soviet/Chinese weapons.

If Katanga gets caught up in the communist/colonialist Africabowl, geography really isn't in its favor-- while Katanga can be resupplied endlessly by air, 3 of its neighbors (Zambia, Tanzania, DRC) aren't against the prospect of sponsoring rebel movements against Tshombe/CONAKAT and the 4th neighbor Angola is going to be independent and Soviet-aligned in another decade. Meanwhile, Zambia is a competitor with Katanga in the copper market so they will likely be economic rivals no matter what. If a crisis along any of the borders erupts and its neighbors turn against it, Katanga is in trouble. And how's Rhodesia supposed to help-- invading Zambia? Not likely, especially after the Bush War gets going.

Of course, Katanga might avoid such trouble on the basis of 1) not being that bad for Africans and 2) not being that hostile to neighbors. For all its friendliness with western mining conglomerates, CONAKAT isn't going to oversee an importation of apartheid into its nation-building project. Belgian colonists/South African imports are going to be part of the economic elite/military cream-of-the-crop for a while but the partners in the state are still black, and that dominance will likely be cemented with time and stability. And while its ties with Belgium would likely make it unpopular with the anti-imperialist crop of leaders at first, that same crop of leaders is on its way out. Sankara, Nyerere, etc. are going or gone by the 80s-- and they're being replaced by leaders like Malawi's Hastings Banda, who won't really care about your exact alignment as long as you don't fuck with them. I mean, I don't think the former French colonies had any trouble joining in African diplomacy/unity efforts and France had some measure of influence in nearly all of them, ranging from the more even-handed partnerships with Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Cameroon to the all-out protectorate deals with weak governments in early Mauritania (which needed the French to defend its iron-exporting railway until it got an army of its own), Chad, and the Central African Republic.

So basically, If Katanga can escape the worst of neocolonialism and just be a black-ruled country with loose labor laws and foreign military protection (e.g. Chad with diamonds), Zambia might rattle sabers but leave it at that. If Katanga actually turns into a weird experiment to reintroduce white-minority rule or fold the area back into Belgium... Le Armee Lumumbiste de Liberation Katangaise sends its regards from a training camp on the Zambezi. But as public support for South Africa/Portugal drops through the 70s and 80s the mining companies (for all their famed lack of ethics) probably won't push that hard for an overt return to colonialism, letting CONAKAT have some leverage and maybe have a peaceful transition of power (!) Now they just gotta ride it out until the Congo Civil Wars, which are probably gonna be just as bad. Expect Katanga to either a direct participant trying to smoke the West Katangan Luba rebels from their DRC bases or a beleaguered neutral-- either way, it's still going to have to deal with trying to integrate tens of thousands of East-Congolese refugees who may not speak French or Swahili (I imagine Copperbelt Swahili being a sort of second national language in Katanga) and keep exiled DRC rebels from establishing shadow governments in the bush.

The real question is whether South Kasai, a Luba rebel state, survives despite having all the same problems as Katanga and the turmoil of its "republican" political leader Kalonji declaring himself Mulopwe in the style on the old Luba emperors. Hell, maybe Katanga can just sell its western districts to South Kasai and rid itself of the trouble. And then South Kasai can get folded back into the DRC for all Katanga cares.

 

[Tsochar]

If Katanga gets caught up in the communist/colonialist Africabowl, geography really isn't in its favor-- while Katanga can be resupplied endlessly by air, 3 of its neighbors (Zambia, Tanzania, DRC) aren't against the prospect of sponsoring rebel movements against Tshombe/CONAKAT and the 4th neighbor Angola is going to be independent and Soviet-aligned in another decade. Meanwhile, Zambia is a competitor with Katanga in the copper market so they will likely be economic rivals no matter what. If a crisis along any of the borders erupts and its neighbors turn against it, Katanga is in trouble. And how's Rhodesia supposed to help-- invading Zambia? Not likely, especially after the Bush War gets going.

Regarding racial tension, it bears noting that Zambia had (and still has) its own white community about 70,000 strong - Lusaka in 1966 was about 14% white - and its own segregation laws weren't actually repealed until 1963, although it's speculated that they had stopped enforcing them in the late '50s. Article.

 

[Michel Van]

The new state of Katanga, would be a mess.

"Official" a Democratic State under President Moïse Kapenda Tshombe
It's a puppet state controlled by the Belgian mining company and Belgium Socialist party (political Mafia) supported by Rhodesian and South African.
Were Democratic and human rights are trample under foot, for the profit of Belgium industrials and politicans

The biggest problem for the State is isolated geographically, mean no rail access to Ocean harbors, depending on other African Nation
Easy option is that Belgium get deal with Portugal and to lease The Benguela Railway that connects Katanga railway with Angola harbor of Lobito
A other that Bush War end in favor south Rhodesian meaning no Zambia (difficult to accomplish)

 

[kernals12]

The new state of Katanga, would be a mess.

"Official" a Democratic State under President Moïse Kapenda Tshombe
It's a puppet state controlled by the Belgian mining company and Belgium Socialist party (political Mafia) supported by Rhodesian and South African.
Were Democratic and human rights are trample under foot, for the profit of Belgium industrials and politicans

The biggest problem for the State is isolated geographically, mean no rail access to Ocean harbors, depending on other African Nation
Easy option is that Belgium get deal with Portugal and to lease The Benguela Railway that connects Katanga railway with Angola harbor of Lobito
A other that Bush War end in favor south Rhodesian meaning no Zambia (difficult to accomplish)

I didn't know anything about that.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The new state of Katanga, would be a mess.

"Official" a Democratic State under President Moïse Kapenda Tshombe
It's a puppet state controlled by the Belgian mining company and Belgium Socialist party (political Mafia) supported by Rhodesian and South African.
Were Democratic and human rights are trample under foot, for the profit of Belgium industrials and politicans

Where as Zaire was a bastion of freedom and industrial progress with no economic or military ties to Europe/America?

A other that Bush War end in favor south Rhodesian meaning no Zambia

Since when did the Rhodesians want to annex Zambia? They weren't even at war...

 

[InfernoMole]

How would Katangan independence affect Biafra's fight for independence, I may ask?

Just barely - there would be a bit more Belgian, Portuguese, South African and Katangan mercenaries and aid on Biafra's side, but Katangan support would piss off the Congolese government and likely taint Biafra's image among anti-imperialists and a good chunk of Black Africa.

 

[Tsochar]

I found a paper on the history of Katanga leading up to the declaration of independence and am summarizing. As a warning, this summary contains a LOT of proper nouns, so here's a glossary:

ABAKO: Alliance of the Bakongo. A Bakongo federalist party led by Joseph Kasa-Vubu
ATCAR: The Association of Tshokwe in Congo, Angola, and Rhodesia. Bajokwe political party.
Ba-: A prefix in many Bantu languages signifying people in the plural. Used for ethnic groups, but not individuals (usually Mu- or M-) or languages (usually Ki- or Tshi-).
Bajokwe/ Tshokwe/ Chokwe: Ethnic group in southwest Kasai and northeastern Angola. Not important here.
Bakongo: An ethnic group in the coastal area near the mouth of the Kongo. Not important here.
Baluba/ Luba: An ethnic group in northern Katanga and southern Kasai
BALUBAKAT: The Baluba political party in Katanga
Balunda/ Lunda: An ethnic group in southern Katanga
Beena Lulua/ Lulua: A Baluba tribe in southeastern Kasai, historically rivals to the other Baluba
Cartel: The Katangese Cartel. An alliance of BALUBAKAT, ATCAR, and FEDEKA in opposition to CONAKAT.
Colon: White colonists
CONAKAT: The Confederation of Tribal Associations in Katanga. The pro-independence, Balunda political party in Katanga
Congo: Here refers exclusively to Congo-Leopoldville, later Zaire and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Elisabethville: The capital of Katanga, now Lubumbashi
FEDEKA: The Federation of Kasaian and Katangese People. Part of its full name is actually misspelled in French.
Kalonji, Albert: President of South Kasai and later King of the Baluba. Luba, federalist.
Kalonji, Isaac: Leader of FEDEKA. Luba and Lulua, raised by whites for part of his childhood.
Kasa-Vubu, Joseph: First President of Congo. Leader of ABAKO Kongo ethnic group, Western-oriented, Right-leaning.
Leopoldville: Capital of Congo, now called Kinshasa
Lumumba, Patrice: First Prime Minister of Congo. Luba, Centralist/Anti-Federalist, Left-leaning
MNC: Mouvement-National Congolais/ Congolese National Movement. The largest political party in Congo. Interethnic, centralist.
Mobutu, Joseph-Desire: Army colonel, later dictator of Congo/Zaire. Ngbandi, Authoritarian.
Ngbandi: Ethnic group in northern Congo. Not important here.
Non-Originaire: People not from Katanga
Originaire: People from Katanga
Schoeller, Andre: Governor of Katanga, ex oficio Vice-Governor of Congo. Advocated Centralism for Congo.
Sendwe, Jason: Leader of BALUBAKAT
Tshombe, Moise: President of Katanga. Lunda, Pro-Western.


Apparently, there were 4 major native ethnic groups in Katanga: The Balunda, who lived in the south, the Baluba, who lived in the north, and the Kasaian Baluba, who lived further north in Kasai province. The major split was on Originaires (people native to Katanga) versus the Non-Originaires (people native to Kasai, who were recruited as mine workers in Katanga). The Baluba were present among both Originaires and Non-Originaires, and were disliked by the Balunda. Patrice Lumumba, the first president of Congo, was a Kasaian Baluba, so he was widely disliked by the indigenous southerners but not by the northern Baluba. The fourth group, the Colons, were white settlers and businessmen connected with the mines.

Katanga had always been autonomous within Belgian Congo, but the Belgian government and the succeeding Lumumba administration sought a unitary state without autonomies. This upset both the Katangese and the Belgian mining interests. So the Balunda political party, CONAKAT, which had previously called for the expulsion of whites, allied with the Colons in 1959, which was viewed by the Baluba as an act of treason and served to unite the Katanga and Kasai factions.

In 1960 elections were held in Katanga two months before independence. The CONAKAT party gained 25 seats out of 60, and the opposition party, the interethnic Cartel, gained 23. However, the national MNC, which theoretically represented all ethnicities of Congo, split between unitary and federalist wings, causing 6 independent members and one BALUBAKAT member to join CONAKAT. This was caused by a split between two Baluba leaders- the aforementioned Lumumba, and the more federalist Albert Kalonji, who himself declared "autonomy" as the leader of South Kasai. In reality, Kalonji and Lumumba's disagreement was not political, but personal- they hated one another.

Kalonji claimed the new Lumumba administration was anti-Baluba and pointed to erupting ethnic violence in Kasai as evidence. Kasai itself is split into ethnic groups- the Baluba in the south and the Beena Lulua in the east are the important ones here. The Beena Lulua, themselves, are an ethnically Baluba tribe but were excluded from the social structure of the Luba empire in the 18th and 19th centuries, and the decades-old rivalry led to the violence there. This is was convenient for Kalonji, who appears to have been a power-seeking authoritarian who later granted himself titles translating to King and God-Emperor.

In any case, the Balunda party now had 32 of 60 seats, giving them an outright majority. The Cartel suspected electoral fraud and walked out. In theory, this would make the new government invalid as there was a two-thirds quorum, but CONAKAT had the Belgian King and Parliament change that law - Congo wouldn't be independent for two weeks. The Cartel and its associated ethnicities then set up its own provincial government in opposition. Three weeks later, Katanga declared independence from Congo.

1959:
January 4th: A riot in Leopoldville breaks out
January 13th: King Baudoin announces its intent to grant independence to Congo "Without delay, but without irresponsible rashness." The original intent is for a gradual process ending in 1965 or so.
April: The Congress of Congolese Parties meets in Leopoldville, and announces its intent to move towards centralization after independence.
May: The Colons and CONAKAT enter an alliance
July: In Leopoldville, Albert Kalonji's faction splits from the MNC
November: BALUBAKAT withdraws from its alliance with CONAKAT and forms the Cartel with ATCAR and Fedeka.
December: King Baudoin visits Congo and has rocks thrown at him by angry crowds demanding immediate independence.

Timeline of events:

1960:
January 20th: A series of round-table discussions in Brussels begins between Congolese leaders and Belgium parliament. Belgium quickly accepts all of Congo's demands. Elections are to be held in May and independence will be on June 30th.
May 16th: The round-table discussions come to a close.
May 22nd: Provincial and National elections are held in Belgian Congo. Of 60 seats in Katanga, CONAKAT gains 25 seats, the Cartel 23.
Late May: Tshombe announces he will abandon his plans for secession if his party is given ministerial positions and if the Defense and Interior Ministries is not given to Lumumba's party or to ABAKO.
May-June: A series of defections by independent Katangese parliament members gives CONAKAT 32 seats.
June 6th: Andre Schoeller, Katanga's governor, announces on the radio that all parties will abide by the election results.
June 7th: Due to an unrelated situation in Leopoldville, Belgian Parliament proposes to lower the quorum on provincial governments from two-thirds to simple majority.
June 10th: The Executive Assembly of Katanga holds its first meeting, and BALUBAKAT walks out. This leaves 38 members, short of the quorum of 40 needed.
June 15th: At the urging of Schoeller, the Belgian Parliament passes the quorum law.
June 16th: The Executive Assembly assigns all ministry positions except one to CONAKAT- the other one was assigned to a member of Kalonji's MNC faction
June 21st: The Cartel announces the formation of a provincial counter-government in Katanga
June 23rd, 2:45 PM: Lumumba presents his proposal for a council of ministers, excluding both ABAKO and Kalonji's faction. Several MPs are outraged.
June 23rd, 4:00 PM: Lumumba resumes negotiations for the council of ministers, primarily with Kasa-Vubu. He and Tshombe reach an agreement where the Ministry of Defence will be shared between several ministers but the Ministry of the Interior would go to ABAKO.
June 23rd, 10:00 PM: Lumumba presents his selections to the Lower Chamber of Parliament. In the final proposal, Lumumba appoints himself to the Ministry of Defense and one of his party members to the Ministry of the Interior, and appoints BALUBAKAT's leader Jason Sendwe as Katanga's provincial representative.
June 24th, 2:05 AM: After a lengthy, heated debate, the Lower Chamber votes: 74 for the government, 5 against, 1 abstention, and 57 voluntary absences.
June 29th: The Belgium-Congo Treaty of Friendship is signed
June 30th: Congo gains its independence. King Baudoin delivers an unabashedly pro-colonialist speech, praising Leopold II in particular. In response, Lumumba unexpectedly delivers a blistering anti-Belgium and anti-Colonialist speech.
July 5th: An army mutiny breaks out in Leopoldville and begins to spread.
July 8th: Five Europeans in Elisabethville are ambushed and killed, and the rest of the Europeans barricade themselves.
July 9th: Army mutinies have broken out throughout the country. Belgium announces it will send troops into the country, in contravention of the Friendship Treaty, to protect its citizens
July 10th: 6,000 Belgian troops arrive.
July 11th: Lumumba condones Belgium's intervention. Belgians begin to occupy cities around the country. Tshombe declares Katanga independent. Lumumba and Kasa-Vubu travel to Elisabethville but are denied permission to land. Whites migrate to Katanga.
July 14th: Lumumba and Kasa-Vubu break off relations with Belgium and asks for UN intervention instead. UN sends troops, but explains intervention is not in their mandate.
July 21st: Tshombe warns the UN that any intervention in Katanga would be met with force.
July 22nd: Lumumba travels to New York to speak with the UN. He would then travel to Washington. He is told they would only provide aid through the UN.
July 28th: Lumumba receives a telegram detailing a clash between Belgian and Congolese forces at Kolwezi, in southern Katanga. Frustrated, he begins traveling to other countries.
August 2nd: Lumumba travels to several African countries. All support him, but only Guinea and Ghana agree to support him directly.
Early August: Lumumba and Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana sign an agreement to make a Federation of African States with its capital at Leopoldville, and agree to meet at the end of the month to discuss the matter further.
August 9th: Lumumba returns to Leopoldville and declares a national state of emergency. Albert Kalonji, still in Katanga, declares South Kasai to be autonomous within Congo. Unofficially, the region is independent.
August 12th: UN personnel enter Elisabethville, but the UN affirms that it will not intervene in the conflict.
Mid-August: Lumumba sends 2000 troops into South Kasai to secure the railway to Katanga. During the offensive, the Congolese army would recruit Lulua and commit massacres against Baluba.
Late August: Kasa-Vubu declares that federalism is the only way for Congo to successfully govern itself. This signifies a break between the two.
August 25th: Lumumba calls a conference for African heads of state. None show up.
August 27th: Lumumba, with Soviet and UN support, secures Bakwanga, the capital of South Kasai.
August 27th: The Congolese Army launches a poorly-planned attack against Katanga and are driven back.
August: Throughout the month, Lumumba meets less and less with his ministers and more and more with his trusted allies. He becomes paranoid.
Late August: The continued offensive in South Kasai leads to a famine and smallpox outbreak, causing more than 135,000 Luba- 1 in 7- to seek refuge in both Bakwanga and Elisabethville.
September 5th, evening: Fearing that Lumumba would attempt a self-coup, Kasa-Vubu announces his dismissal of Lumumba, citing the massacres in South Kasai.
September 6th, 5:30 AM: Lumumba declares Kasa-Vubu's dismissal invalid and instead dismisses Kasa-Vubu.
September 6th, 4:00 PM: Kasa-Vubu obtains counter-signatures from two ministers, invalidating Lumumba's dismissal
September 6th, evening: Lumumba orders the arrest of the two ministers who counter-signed him.
September 7th: Parliament convenes to discuss the dismissals, eventually declaring both null and void.
September 8th: Parliament passes a vote of confidence for Lumumba's government.
September 9th: Lumumba announces he has taken command of the Congolese army. Kasa-Vubu tells parliament that Lumumba is becoming more authoritarian.
September 13th: Lumumba demands "full powers" to deal with the crisis. Parliament grants him emergency powers, despite lacking a quorum.
September 14th: Kasa-Vubu declares the previous day's session illegitimate and declares a one-month adjournment of Parliament. Parliament rejects the adjournment as the Speaker of the Senate had not been notified as prescribed in the Constitution.
September 14th: Mobutu announces a "peaceful revolution," neutralizing both Lumumba and Kasa-Vubu
September 14th, Evening: Lumumba travels to the military camp in Leopoldville to speak to Mobutu, and is attacked that night by Luba soldiers blaming him for the South Kasai massacres. A Ghanaian regiment rescues him.
September 15th: Lumumba returns the the Prime Minister's residence, where UN peacekeepers prevent Mobutu from arresting him. He eventually appoints a new government.
October 11th: Kasa-Vubu adjourns parliament and appoints a new body to govern. Lumumba claims it illegitimate.
October 16th: Tshombe cuts a deal with Mobutu to "Neutralize" Lumumba
November 24th: The UN recognizes Mobutu's government.
November 27th: Lumumba leaves Leopoldville for Stanleyville, on the other side of the country, with his wife and children.
December 1st: Lumumba and his family are captured by Mobutu's forces in South-Central Congo.
Date unknown: France sends infamous mercenary Bob Denard to Katanga in support of Tshombe.

1961:
January 16th: Belgium's Minister of African Affairs sends a confidential telegram to Mobutu asking him to send Lumumba to Katanga, as he feared Lumumba was too popular among the armed forces and might release him.
January 17th: Lumumba is flown to Katanga, where he is tortured to death.
January: The Cartel's counter-government announces itself the Province of North Katanga, with Jason Sendwe as its president.