chankljp
Donor
For those who don't know, on 1975, Valery Sablin, the political commissar onboard the Soviet frigate Storozhevoy, a committed communist, being disillusioned with the rampant corruption and stagnation under Brezhnev's USSR, talked most of the crew into staging a mutiny onboard the ship while it was docked at Riga. His plan being to sail the ship right into Leningrad, and make a nationwide broadcast to the Soviet people, calling upon them to revive the Russian Revolution's Leninist principles, and stand up against the ruling authorities.
In OTL, he never made it that far, with the ship being stopped at the Baltics in full view of the Swedish territorial waters, and his attempted 'Second October Revolution' being covered up as an attempt of him to defect to the West, with the truth not being made public under after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Now, obviously, even IF Sablin managed to sail into Leningrad and made his radio broadcast, he would not be able to trigger a nation-wide uprising, and would have simply ended up getting stomped by marine commandos ASAP the moment the authorities realized what he was doing.... However, the butterfly effect from even this might have all sort of long-lasting consequences. Case in point: Mathias Rust's landing in Red Square in 1987, a complete accident and seemingly insignificant move by a single man which enabled Gorbachev the pretext to purge Soviet military of strongest opponents to his reforms, which arguably contributed to the fall of the USSR.
So, what would have been the greatest amount of impact that Valery Sablin could have realistically achieve? Would such a blatant display of opposition to the Soviet government done in the name of Leninism, in a manner that cannot be hidden from the public, resulted in say, the removal of Brezhnev, and a reformer being put into power earlier? Would the Soviet government double down on their repression? And would the West see this as a sign that irreparably damaged the image of the Soviet Union's internal stability early on, resulting in different actions being taken towards the end of the Cold War?
In OTL, he never made it that far, with the ship being stopped at the Baltics in full view of the Swedish territorial waters, and his attempted 'Second October Revolution' being covered up as an attempt of him to defect to the West, with the truth not being made public under after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Now, obviously, even IF Sablin managed to sail into Leningrad and made his radio broadcast, he would not be able to trigger a nation-wide uprising, and would have simply ended up getting stomped by marine commandos ASAP the moment the authorities realized what he was doing.... However, the butterfly effect from even this might have all sort of long-lasting consequences. Case in point: Mathias Rust's landing in Red Square in 1987, a complete accident and seemingly insignificant move by a single man which enabled Gorbachev the pretext to purge Soviet military of strongest opponents to his reforms, which arguably contributed to the fall of the USSR.
So, what would have been the greatest amount of impact that Valery Sablin could have realistically achieve? Would such a blatant display of opposition to the Soviet government done in the name of Leninism, in a manner that cannot be hidden from the public, resulted in say, the removal of Brezhnev, and a reformer being put into power earlier? Would the Soviet government double down on their repression? And would the West see this as a sign that irreparably damaged the image of the Soviet Union's internal stability early on, resulting in different actions being taken towards the end of the Cold War?
