What is the most territory Germany could get away with after unconditional surrender in WW2?

After being nuked, and lost Sakhalin and Taiwan. And Japanese were ethnically cleansed from lost territories.

And Korea, which they occupied since 1910.

Why are we assuming Germany hasn't been nuked here?

And there is a difference between expelling people from territory where they are a minority (at least at a national level in the case of Czechoslovakia) or have only had a brief occupation and with annexing a large chunk of foreign territory almost entirely populated by another population and then expelling them. The Soviets could obviously do that in OTL but I'm not convinced Poland would have had the capability or will to do so.
 
With a POD of the Fall of France, what is the most territory Germany could hold by the modern day after still suffering total defeat in WW2?

For example, what lands that they did not get OTL are merely difficult to keep, and what lands are absolutely off the table? Austria, Silesia, and Pomerania are of particular interest. Is it ASB for Germany to keep, for example, its Treaty of Versailles borders minus East Prussia and concessions in Silesia? I'm assuming a worse Soviet performance is necessary, correct?
From my research at best Stettin. A tiny bit more of the divided Island north of Stettin and if the 1953 crisis goes BAD, them maybe the German speaking community could be brought back.
But anything like the west cis oder parts of Silesia would need at least a Jalta POD with a stronger Anglo American voice or weaker willed Stalin that day.

PS: Only now saw the Fall of France POD. Well then I would imagine at very best everything Pre 37 outside of East Prussia. But probably some more loses to Poland in Pomerania, the loss of Upper Silesia, probably The Saar basin and maybe some small parts to Denmark and the Benelux.
 
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Why are we assuming Germany hasn't been nuked here?

And there is a difference between expelling people from territory where they are a minority (at least at a national level in the case of Czechoslovakia) or have only had a brief occupation and with annexing a large chunk of foreign territory almost entirely populated by another population and then expelling them. The Soviets could obviously do that in OTL but I'm not convinced Poland would have had the capability or will to do so.
Poles were around half the population of the Allenstein district and has significant minorities in adjacent areas. So the issue may not be as challenging as you'd think.
 
Poles were around half the population of the Allenstein district and has significant minorities in adjacent areas. So the issue may not be as challenging as you'd think.
More Polish speakers than Poles. But still, Polish speakers are likely to be allowed to stay.
 
Japan surrendered unconditionally without Allied boots on the main islands

Japan was effectively starved anjd bombed to ruins and its two cities were wiped temporaly from map with dropping only one bomb to both cities. Futhermore Soviets were taking Sakhalin and Taiwan was already lost. Japan had only just Home Islands. There just wasn't any hope left.
 
Depends on _who_ is surrendering unconditionally. If it's the USSR or UK surrendering, germany can get away with more territory than if it's germany surrendering.
 
Problem is, when Germany's situation is good enough to request 1939 borders Germany would not look for surrender, even conditional one.
The obvious thing, looking back with 20-20 hindsight, is for Hitler not to start WW II by keeping out of Poland. In the time between when a war starts and when someone obtains victory, somebody will have conditions to a peace.
 
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