What if? What if Mussolini never gained power in Italy, But Italy still supported Hitler? Perhaps they would have given their soldiers more time to prepare, and had a half-decent army?
Have to agree that the butterflies of no Mussolini would have a huge effect on the Nazi party; at the very least, it would remove the Beer Hall Putsch, which was directly inspired by Mussolini's successful March on Rome. Without the example of a (seemingly) quite effective fascist state in Italy, Fascist parties won't seem nearly as acceptable as they became in the OTL 1930's, so Germany's conservative establishment would be far more wary of the Nazis. Even if the Nazis do manage to still take power in Germany, they will have to take a very different path from OTL, which would have a major effect on the party's development and possibly its leadership.Without Mussolini, Hitler would likely have never gained power.
Up until the Ethiopian war, Italy was a good member of the Western Allies, and almost went to war with Germany in 1934.
With out Mussolini, whe probably don't have a Ethiopian war, Italy stays in the Allies camp.
Italy has ALOT of problems ranging from lack of coal, regional strife, illiteratency and a poor population.
Yet they could have had less.
Sometime in the early 30´s they decided to go from 30 triangular to 80 binary infantry divisions. That meant an increase of 70 infantry regiments(+77%) and 50 artillery regiments(+166%). Producing that much additional weapons and equipment was simply beyond Italy´s capability.
If Italy had added another ten triangular divisions only a 1/3 increase in infantry/artillery regiments and weapons for them would have been required. But I´d like to have more than an additional 1/3 of artillery. Artillery was the biggest weak spot of Italian divisions. They had two dozen 75mm guns and one dozen 100mm guns, while a UK division had six dozen 25pdrs.
I don´t know how much artillery the Italian industry had provided but it wasn´t enough for 80 regiments IOTL. Let´s say 60. That would give each of the 40 divisions 1.5 artillery regiments, a 50% increase. Now factor in that the Italian industry needs to make far less small arms than IOTL and they could have made more artillery guns. And you can always economize. Italy´s northern borders were well protected by high mountain ranges. They could have been defended by divisions with less than average artillery and last but not least there is always the poor man´s artillery: infantry mortars.
That way you should be able to get at least ten triangular divisions with the same level of firepower as an allied division.
Luke Dalton and Markus make worthwhile points.
If you wish to take a little more long-view PoD, a good way to make sure Itay gets serious about its WWII committments, notwithstanding the political leadership, is to make Italy side with the CP in WWI, but make the CP lose (say due to early US intervention for the Entente). Peace treaty losses would not harm Italy overmuch (most likely akin to OTL 1947, plus Aosta at worst), it would be able to rearm when Germany does, Germany would be seen as natural ally, the divisive presence of Ausitra-Hungary would still be gone, and there would be a rather stronger national committment to revanchism, which would easily ensure better military preparation for a rematch. During the rearmament, the Italian Army would be rebuilt from scratch with innovative weapons and tactics. Of course, it would be a different strategic role of Italy in WWII, since there would be no African colonies and a Navy as small as the German one (although quite possibly rebuilt in a more innovative way, like the Japanese did), and war effort would be more land-oriented, say a successful Italian invasion of Yugoslavia while Germany is offing Poland, then an effective combined Italo-German effort against France.
Italy would not have Dalmatia, South Tyrol, or Istria. They would need to argue with the Germans over that, as Germany would still want to unify with Austria.
You also need to remember that the alliance the Italians had with Austria-Hungary and Germany was a defensive one, and Austria and Germany were technically responisble due to their invasions.
Was it Mussolini or just Italy in general who had been moving closer to Austria, Hungary, and Bulgaria? Less for the symbolism of the Central Powers perhaps and more for the sake for having the Balkans as their hegemony. What where the "Albanian disasters" out of curiosuty? I havnt't heard of them. I certainly agree with the part on their anger at Dalmatia and the two Free Cities, while they may also have been annoyed at how they lost the chance for a sphereofinflucne/colony in Turkey. I have to agree to a certain extent about Yugoslavia, as I do believe they are partially responsible for the war by murdering an Austrian politician so that his planned positive policies to the Serbs would prevent them from their own empire. Along with them annexing their ally of Montenegro. Why did they even join the war on Serbia's side?
True, but something like Austria accepting to cede Trento (not South Tyrol), Gorizia-Gradisca (not Trieste) and optionally at most perhaps a western Istria exclave (none of such cessions harming Austria in any significant way), plus a solid German guarantee about fulfillment of Italian irredentist claims on France at the peace table (Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Tunisia) may get Italy on the CP boat.
What if? What if Mussolini never gained power in Italy, But Italy still supported Hitler? Perhaps they would have given their soldiers more time to prepare, and had a half-decent army?
True, but something like Austria accepting to cede Trento (not South Tyrol), Gorizia-Gradisca (not Trieste) and optionally at most perhaps a western Istria exclave (none of such cessions harming Austria in any significant way), plus a solid German guarantee about fulfillment of Italian irredentist claims on France at the peace table (Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Tunisia) may get Italy on the CP boat.
Only if the entire Austro-Hungary leadership is stroke by a lighting and suddenly become reasonable and logical
True, but something like Austria accepting to cede Trento (not South Tyrol), Gorizia-Gradisca (not Trieste) and optionally at most perhaps a western Istria exclave (none of such cessions harming Austria in any significant way), plus a solid German guarantee about fulfillment of Italian irredentist claims on France at the peace table (Savoy, Nice, Corsica, Tunisia) may get Italy on the CP boat.