What if there was no Operation Urgent Fury/Invasion of Grenada in 1983?

[Chris S]

Okay, so I looked around on the forum for threads dealing with the Urgent Fury/Invasion of Grenada operation and didn't find any that dealt with the consequences of there being no invasion (at least I didn't find any threads specifically about urgent fury that asked this question).

So...what would the effects be on the United States and the United States military in particular (and less particularly on global affairs) if there was no invasion of Grenada in 1983?

For those who would wish to know how this happened, I could think of two PODs:

- In 1976 Eric Gairy's rigging of the elections fails to secure him enough votes anyway for an electoral victory and he loses power to the "People's Alliance" of conservative and left-wing parties (including Maurice Bishop's New JEWEL Movement or NJM) opposed to his rule. Bishop ends up as part of a coalition government from 1976 and this probably butterflies away the NJM decision to form a "National Liberation Army" (which would later become the "People's Revolutionary Army") in the late 1970s in order to depose Gairy outside of the electoral system and thus butterflies away the 1979 Revolution and subsequent events of 1979-1983. Hence no need for an invasion. [Note: Even if the NJM still decided to form a NLA/PRA to seize power from the coalition government; unlike OTL 1979 such an attempted seizure of power might not enjoy popular support since Gairy would already be out of the picture and the other partners in the People's Alliance coalition enjoyed some real popularity and their supporters would not appreciate having them deposed illegally...so with a 1976 POD any attempt at Revolution in 1979/1980 might well fail and the outcome would still be the same for the purposes of this thread ---> no need for Operation Urgent Fury]

- In 1983 Bishop's supporters not only free Bishop from detention by Bernard Coard and Hudson Austin, but manage to keep him free and he rallies a counter-counter-revolution to Coard's attempt to seize power from him. Bishops 1979 government is restored and there is no military government. And no reason for the US to intervene for now.


So what happens for Reagan, the Republicans and the US military without Operation Urgent Fury in 1983? How does it affect later operations such as Just Cause in 1989 and Desert Storm in 1991?

 

[Orville_third]

Just Cause would likely have more screwups. The US would be out fewer Special Forces Personnel. The Goldwater-Nichols military organization act would likely not have passed. The Lebanon bombing would be more in the news. Thatcher would not have had a major disagreement with Reagan. Eileen Collins would not have had credit for serving in combat.

 

[joea64]

Just Cause would likely have more screwups. The US would be out fewer Special Forces Personnel. The Goldwater-Nichols military organization act would likely not have passed. The Lebanon bombing would be more in the news. Thatcher would not have had a major disagreement with Reagan. Eileen Collins would not have had credit for serving in combat.

Goldwater-Nichols not being enacted would probably have the biggest long-term effects. Actually, Just Cause would probably be the operation to bring the problems that G-N fixed to light in this TL, but whether there'd be any time to make substantial progress before Desert Shield/Desert Storm came along is another question entirely.

 

[Chris S]

Just Cause would likely have more screwups. The US would be out fewer Special Forces Personnel. The Goldwater-Nichols military organization act would likely not have passed. The Lebanon bombing would be more in the news. Thatcher would not have had a major disagreement with Reagan. Eileen Collins would not have had credit for serving in combat.

Goldwater-Nichols not being enacted would probably have the biggest long-term effects. Actually, Just Cause would probably be the operation to bring the problems that G-N fixed to light in this TL, but whether there'd be any time to make substantial progress before Desert Shield/Desert Storm came along is another question entirely.

Goldwater-Nichols was the result of Vietnam, the attempted SS Mayaguez rescue attempt after Vietnam, operation Eagle Claw, the Lebanon deployment and operation urgent fury. So Goldwater-Nichols will be passed. The other reforms to the military (such as the Packard Commission reforms) resulted in what this paper refers to as a "perfect storm" for reorganization of the US military.

What may change are the specific details of the Goldwater-Nichols act. I would be interested to know what any board members think would be such changes and how those changes would affect operation just cause and operation desert storm.

The Reagan-Thatcher relationship would be interesting to see in the event of no Grenada operation......