What if there was no Lithuanian expansion into the southern Rus

[kotchium]

Surprised that there isn't much discussion about this, at least none i can find. Given the depopulation of the southern Rus, would a different external power such as Poland or Muscovy conquer the region instead? or could a local kingdom such as Galicia–Volhynia fill the power vacuum in that area? There's also the question of what happens to Lithuania itself, perhaps it would fall to the Livonians or Poland.

 

[raharris1973]

Given the depopulation of the southern Rus, would a different external power such as Poland or Muscovy conquer the region instead?

I imagine Poland could. I cannot imagine what could give Muscovy or nearby cities like Vladimir-Suzdal or Tver an opportunity to make such moves any earlier than OTL in the face of the Golden Horde strength that was the source of so much depopulation. Another candidate state to expand into this region might be Hungary. I don't think newly emerging Moldavia could pull it off.

or could a local kingdom such as Galicia–Volhynia fill the power vacuum in that area?

Perhaps by default, and if not restrained by Hungarian or Polish overlordship

There's also the question of what happens to Lithuania itself, perhaps it would fall to the Livonians or Poland.

Not sure what is causing the Lithuanians to sink so completely into ruin, even in their demographic-linguistic heartland. The Poles would be I suppose the nearest cohesive nation state, and then the Teutonic Order.

Of which Livonians do you speak, Baltic natives, or Germanic Knights of the Livonia Order? Not sure what would give any other kind of Baltic native an edge over Lithuanians.

 

[Augenis]

Surprised that there isn't much discussion about this, at least none i can find. Given the depopulation of the southern Rus, would a different external power such as Poland or Muscovy conquer the region instead? or could a local kingdom such as Galicia–Volhynia fill the power vacuum in that area? There's also the question of what happens to Lithuania itself, perhaps it would fall to the Livonians or Poland.

Well in this period Poland was a bit of a punching bag, fragmented since the 12th century or so and losing territory from every side (Pomerelia, Pomerania, Silesia, Halych, etc.). It could only really start on eastern expansion in the mid 14th century, at which point I doubt the situation in the southern Kievan Rus would be as advantageous as it was during the 13th. Moscow is in a similar boat I'd say, if anything it unified later.

Halich-Volhynia is possible. Their eventual disintegration in the 14th century was kind of luck dependant, since it took both of their princes (presumably) dying to the Tatars in the same battle to start their succession crisis and partition. Just the fact that Lithuania isn't there pressuring from the north and plotting with Polish kings to control Halich-Volhynia would give them a boost, although it's still possible for them to end up in some unfortunate succession and then lose out to Poland and Hungary pressure.

 

[raharris1973]

I wonder if Halych/Galitz/Galicia left alone without succession crises and left in a battered state by the Tatars and absorbed by the Lithuanians, and surviving any moves by the Poles could itself have preempted the emergence of the Vlach controlled state of Moldavia, but instead occupied all of its land up to at least the Siret river (as in Kievan Rus times) or all the way to the Hungarian/Carpathian border and Wallachian border and Danube?

 

[kotchium]

I imagine Poland could. I cannot imagine what could give Muscovy or nearby cities like Vladimir-Suzdal or Tver an opportunity to make such moves any earlier than OTL in the face of the Golden Horde strength that was the source of so much depopulation. Another candidate state to expand into this region might be Hungary. I don't think newly emerging Moldavia could pull it off.


Perhaps by default, and if not restrained by Hungarian or Polish overlordship


Not sure what is causing the Lithuanians to sink so completely into ruin, even in their demographic-linguistic heartland. The Poles would be I suppose the nearest cohesive nation state, and then the Teutonic Order.

Of which Livonians do you speak, Baltic natives, or Germanic Knights of the Livonia Order? Not sure what would give any other kind of Baltic native an edge over Lithuanians.

When referring to the Livonians i meant the German order, not sure why i implied Lithuania would definitely fall there. Maybe a Lithuanian expansion into German Livonia?

Well in this period Poland was a bit of a punching bag, fragmented since the 12th century or so and losing territory from every side (Pomerelia, Pomerania, Silesia, Halych, etc.). It could only really start on eastern expansion in the mid 14th century, at which point I doubt the situation in the southern Kievan Rus would be as advantageous as it was during the 13th. Moscow is in a similar boat I'd say, if anything it unified later.

Halich-Volhynia is possible. Their eventual disintegration in the 14th century was kind of luck dependant, since it took both of their princes (presumably) dying to the Tatars in the same battle to start their succession crisis and partition. Just the fact that Lithuania isn't there pressuring from the north and plotting with Polish kings to control Halich-Volhynia would give them a boost, although it's still possible for them to end up in some unfortunate succession and then lose out to Poland and Hungary pressure.

Almost forgot about the Polish fragmentation, seems like the most likely outcome is a local Ruthenian dynasty arising in the South. Hungary expanding in is a very interesting prospect but I don't think they'd be geographically well positioned to hold it.

Thanks for the answers