What if there was no Battle of Gettysburg?

[ejpsan]

As I understand it the Battle of Gettysburg was an accidental battle, the plan was for the Army of Northern Virginia to move north to Harrisburg, PA then to Philadelphia and finally to move south to threaten Washington D.C..
The Army of Northern Virginia had stopped in Gettysburg to replenish their boots when units of the Union Army caught up with them and blocked their movement out of the area.
So what if the Army of Northern Virginia was able to continue their march north unimpeded?
The main goal was to panic the North and shift the Union Army from the Vicksburg area of operations to the Potomac to cover Washington D.C.

 

[Kevin Renner]

If not Gettysburg then there will be a fight somewhere else. All it takes is for Meade to get in a position to block Lee's lines of communication and retreat. Most likely somewhere around Harrisburg

 

[Arnold d.c]

The Army of Northern Virginia had stopped in Gettysburg to replenish their boots when units of the Union Army caught up with them and blocked their movement out of the area.

That’s a post-war myth by Heth to excuse his excursion to Gettysburg. Pettigrew and his brigade had been at Gettysburg yesterday and reported that a force from the Army of the Potomac (actually Buford’s Cavalry Division) was occupying Gettysburg. A.P. Hill and Heth saw an easy win by chasing out whatever was there, and it was completely within acceptable bounds for them to do so, given the army's pending concentration in the area. Heth didn't go storming back there with his full division, followed up by Hill's corps, to look for shoes; you'd burn up more shoe leather than you could possibly find in a town of that size marching that many troops.The disastrous aftermath of the battle gave everyone involved plenty of reason to downplay the combativeness of Confederate intentions on July 1. By the time he wrote his memoirs, Heth probably believed it himself.

Assuming that Pettigrew left before he could see Buford, Lee, A.P. Hill and Longstreet would have most likely stayed at Cashtown, where the army was supposed to concentrate. In turn, this means that Ewell would be marching to Cashtown instead of Gettysburg. By the end of July 1, the Army of Northern Virginia’s infantry corps would have been concentrated around Cashtown while the Army of the Potomac was divided, but well within reach of each other.

By the next day, Buford should probably be probing Cashtown, perhaps provoking Lee to take a look at Gettysburg. Lee’s objective was not just to draw Union armies away from Vicksburg, but to gather supplies from Pennsylvania and inflict a fatal blow to the Army of the Potomac. Neither of these objectives can be achieved if the Army of the Potomac was left alone. Fighting was on Lee’s mind and here was the enemy.

 

[ejpsan]

That’s a post-war myth by Heth to excuse his excursion to Gettysburg.

Thank you for clearing that up for me, I know that one of the goals was for Lee to gather up supplies and also to strike at the will of the North to continue the war.
But I have thought that Lee wanted to avoid any unnecessary clashes with the Union Army until he reach Harrisburg, which is why Stuart's Calvary ride around the Union forces and not staying in contact with Lee was one of the reason that the battle happened at Gettysburg because Lee didn't know where the Union Army was.
But my main point of my question was that what would have happened if the Army of Northern Virginia was much farther North if and when they fought the Union Army?
When I first saw where Gettysburg was on the map, I was surprised that it was relatively close to Virginia.
Another thing is a question about the massive storm that hit the area after the battle which some have said that it gave Lee a break in getting his forces back before they could have been blocked, what if the AoNV was much further north would that have trapped them deeper inside Pennsylvania?

 

[Mikestone8]

what if the AoNV was much further north would that have trapped them deeper inside Pennsylvania?

Very possibly, esp if they are caught with their back to the Susquehanna. Lee has a lot further to go back to Virginia.

If the ANV has to surrender at the same time as Vicksburg, can the Confederacy survive this double whammy?

 

[Arnold d.c]

Thank you for clearing that up for me, I know that one of the goals was for Lee to gather up supplies and also to strike at the will of the North to continue the war.
But I have thought that Lee wanted to avoid any unnecessary clashes with the Union Army until he reach Harrisburg, which is why Stuart's Calvary ride around the Union forces and not staying in contact with Lee was one of the reason that the battle happened at Gettysburg because Lee didn't know where the Union Army was.
But my main point of my question was that what would have happened if the Army of Northern Virginia was much farther North if and when they fought the Union Army?
When I first saw where Gettysburg was on the map, I was surprised that it was relatively close to Virginia.
Another thing is a question about the massive storm that hit the area after the battle which some have said that it gave Lee a break in getting his forces back before they could have been blocked, what if the AoNV was much further north would that have trapped them deeper inside Pennsylvania?

Not quite. Harrisburg was more of a side objective for Lee. In his orders to Ewell, Harrisburg was to be captured if possible. Lee’s base goal was to spend the summer fighting in Pennsylvania, and this goal would be expanded when additional developments occurred.

That being said, if Lee was trapped north and destroyed the Confederates in the East (and therefore West) are finished. The Richmond Garrison, recovering wounded, and the remaining troops of the Army of Northern Virginia left behind are too small and weak to resist the invasion of Virginia. I can’t see the Union advance stopping until it at least reaches Suffolk or North Carolina where the Confederates could at least scrap up troops to halt the advance.

In the West, there is no reinforcements for Bragg’s Army. So there is chance of a victory at Chickamauga. The Confederacy collapses at summer of 1864 at most or the winter of 1863.

 

[Mikestone8]

Istr that after Vicksburg, Grant wanted to swing east and take Mobile, but was overruled. In this situation, with Bragg's now the only CS army ledt east of the Mississippi, does he get his way?

 

[Arnold d.c]

Istr that after Vicksburg, Grant wanted to swing east and take Mobile, but was overruled. In this situation, with Bragg's now the only CS army ledt east of the Mississippi, does he get his way?

Probably not. The problem is the Trans-Mississippi Theater. Lincoln was pretty concerned about retaking Texas and so Grant’s Army of the Tennessee was broken apart to reinforce the Army of the Gulf and watch over the Mississippi. It was not until the emergency at Chattanooga that the Army of the Tennessee returned to the field. Perhaps such a campaign would occur in 1864 as the Lincoln administration would see the Army of the Cumberland and the Ohio sufficient to deal with Bragg.

 

[BELFAST]

A lot depends on how any battle after that goes if Lee fight a defensive battle on ground of his choice as long street recommanded he might have a better chance a winning a large battle.
I not sure that it would to make a difference in the long run. Even a big win would not bring the British and French in on the CSA side.

 

[ejpsan]

Even a big win would not bring the British and French in on the CSA side.

That was one of the problems that the South had, they believed that they were very close to getting recognized by the European nations that all it took was just one big victory also they believed that with one big victory the North would have quit.

 

[Derek Pullem]

I have thought that Lee wanted to avoid any unnecessary clashes with the Union Army until he reach Harrisburg, which is why Stuart's Calvary ride around the Union forces and not staying in contact with Lee was one of the reason that the battle happened at Gettysburg because Lee didn't know where the Union Army was.

Lee was quite happy for Stewart to strike out on his raid - in fact his orders specifically allowed Stuart to do so. Lee had approx. 50% of Stuart's cavalry in any case so was hardly bereft of scouts. Stuart did get too far away from Lee, that is true. But Lee's inability to know the position of the Union forces was more down to his failings than Stuart's.

 

[Dave Howery]

well, Lee was looking for a fight (he really wanted to smack down the AotP), but beyond 'there would be a battle somewhere else'... it's hard to say... Gettysburg was a case where the Union got to all the good high ground first, stayed there, and Lee obliged them by attacking. It might not happen like that somewhere else... or it might. If the Confederate scouts get their act together and locate the Union forces, then Lee (with Longstreet urging him on) could find the high ground first and force the Union to attack him. If not, then it's anyone's guess...