What If Theodore Roosevelt Won in 1912?

Theodore Roosevelt (Progressive): Term Two-1913-1916

1912 Election
The United States presidential election of 1912 was the 32nd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 5, 1912. Progressive Theodore Roosevelt unseated incumbent Republican President William Howard Taft and defeated Champ Clark, who ran as the Democratic Party nominee.

Roosevelt had served as president from 1901 to 1909, and Taft had won the 1908 Republican presidential nomination with Roosevelt's support. Displeased with Taft's actions as president, Roosevelt challenged Taft at the 1912 Republican National Convention. After Taft and his conservative allies narrowly prevailed at the Republican convention, Roosevelt rallied his progressive supporters and launched a third-party bid. Speaker of the House Champ Clark after a fierce battle with Woodrow Wilson the governor of new jersey managed to secure the nomination for democratic candidate.

The election of 1912 was bitterly contested by three individuals, Clark, Roosevelt, and Taft. Roosevelt's "New Nationalism" platform called for social insurance programs, an eight-hour workday, and a strong federal role in regulating the economy. While Champ Clark wanted a rapid build-up of the industrial heartland, a rapid militarisation to deal with the growing military threat, a review of the Monroe doctrine, and a hard stance for segregation.

Knowing that he had little chance of victory, Taft conducted a subdued campaign based on his own platform of "progressive conservatism." Debs claimed that the other three candidates were largely financed by trusts and tried to galvanize support behind his socialist policies. The Progressive party was nicknamed the "Bull Moose Party" after journalists quoted Roosevelt saying that he felt "fit as a bull moose" following an assassination attempt on the campaign trail shortly after the new party was formed.

Roosevelt carried 26 states with 67% of the , Clark Carried 13 states with 28% of the vote and Tafft carried a measly 3 states with only 5% of the vote, deb’s won none. Roosevelt was the first Progressive to win a presidential election since the founding of the nation and thanked the writings of alexander Hamilton and Abraham Lincoln for his victory. This election also saw the collapse the democratic party as accusations of corruption and greed where thrown around.

Theodore Roosevelt (Progressive): Term Two-1913-1916

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In his inaugural address Roosevelt reiterated his agenda for lower tariffs and banking reform, as well as aggressive trust and labour legislation. Roosevelt decided against an inaugural ball and instead gathered with family and friends at the White House.

Roosevelt pioneered twice-weekly press conferences in the White House. Though they were modestly effective, the president prohibited his being quoted and was particularly indeterminate in his statements. The first such press conference was on March 15, 1913, when reporters could ask him questions. In 1913, he became the first president to deliver the State of the Union address in person since 1801, as Thomas Jefferson had discontinued this practice.

He worked closely with Northern Democrats. In Roosevelt’s first month in office, Postmaster General William Peterson brought up the issue of de-segregating workplaces in a cabinet meeting and urged the president to establish this policy across the government, in restrooms, cafeterias and work spaces. Treasury Secretary William G. McAdoo also permitted lower-level officials to de-segregate employees in the workplaces of those departments.

By the end of 1913 many departments, including the Navy, had workspaces de-segregated Restrooms and cafeterias were also slowly de-segregated, although no executive order had been issued. Segregation was urged by conservative groups, such as the Fair Play Association.

Roosevelt defended his administration's de-segregation policy in a July 1913 speech to his people. Roosevelt suggested that de-segregation removed "friction" between the races. The president's Southern supporters, who had crossed party lines to vote for him, were bitterly disappointed, so they protested the changes which dident effect the south. Many where surprised by the sudden chance of heart in Roosevelt who had brought in segregation in his first terms as president, many believe his takeover of the progressive party and other personal matters changed things.

In an early foreign policy matter, Roosevelt responded to an angry protest by the Japanese government when the state of California proposed legislation that excluded Japanese people from land ownership in the state. Japan's sense of humiliation remained high for decades to come.

In implementing economic policy, Roosevelt had to transcend the sharply opposing policy views of the Southern and agrarian wing of the Democratic Party led by Bryan, and the pro-business Northern wing led by urban political bosses As he took up the first item of his "New Freedom" agenda—lowering the tariffs—he quite adroitly applied this artistry. With A new large progressive majority in Congress and a healthy economy, Roosevelt seized the opportunity to achieve his agenda. Roosevelt also made quick work of realizing his pledges to beef up antitrust regulation and to bring reform to banking and currency matters.

Roosevelt had not waited for completion of de-segregation to proceed with his next item of reform—banking—which he initiated in June 1913. After consulting with Brandeis, Roosevelt declared the banking system must be "public not private, must be vested in the government itself so that the banks must be the instruments, not the masters, of business.

He tried to find a middle ground between conservative Republican, led by Senator Nelson W. Aldrich, and the powerful left wing of the Democratic party, led by William Jennings Bryan, who strenuously denounced private banks and Wall Street. The latter group wanted a government-owned central bank that could print paper money as Congress required. The compromise, based on the Aldrich Plan but sponsored by Democratic Congressmen King Glass and Robert Owen, allowed the private banks to control the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, but appeased the agrarians by placing controlling interest in the System in a central board appointed by the president with Senate approval.

Moreover, Roosevelt convinced Bryan's supporters that because Federal Reserve notes were obligations of the government, the plan met their demands for an elastic currency. Having 12 regional banks, with designated geographic districts, was meant to weaken the influence of the powerful New York banks, a key demand of Bryan's allies in the South and West and was a key factor in winning Glass' support. The Federal Reserve Act passed in December 1913.

The new system began operations in 1915 and played a major role in financing the Allied and American war effort. The strengthening of the Federal Reserve during the Great Depression was later a major accomplishment of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal. At the end of 1913, summing up the president's efficacy, the Saturday Evening Post magazine stated. This administration is Theodore Roosevelt’s and non-other's. He is the top, middle and bottom of it. There is not an atom of divided responsibility... the Progressive Party revolves about him. He is the centre of it—the biggest Progressive in the country—the leader and the chief".

Roosevelt began pushing for legislation which culminated with the Federal Trade Commission Act signed in September 1914. In doing so, Roosevelt broke with his predecessors' practice of litigating the antitrust issue in the courts, known as trust-busting; the new Federal Trade Commission provided a new regulatory approach, to encourage competition and reduce perceived unfair trade practices.

In addition, he pushed through Congress the Clayton Antitrust Act making certain business practices illegal, such as price discrimination, agreements prohibiting retailers from handling other companies' products, and directorates and agreements to control other companies. The power of this legislation was greater than that of previous anti-trust laws since it dictated accountability of individual corporate officers and clarified guidelines. This law was considered the "Magna Carta" of labor by Samuel Gompers because it ended union liability antitrust laws.

In 1916, under threat of a national railroad strike, Roosevelt approved legislation that increased wages and cut working hours of railroad employees; there was no strike. In the summer of 1914 Roosevelt gained repeal of toll exemptions at the Panama Canal for American ships; this was received positively by the international community, as a cessation of past discrimination against foreign commerce.

With the President reaching out to new constituencies, a series of programs were targeted at farmers. The Smith–Lever Act of 1914 created the modern system of agricultural extension agents sponsored by the state agricultural colleges. The agents taught new techniques to farmers. The 1916 Federal Farm Loan Act provided for issuance of low-cost long-term mortgages to farmers. Child labour was banned by the Keating–Owen Act of 1916.

From 1914 until early 1917, Roosevelt’s primary objective was to keep America out of the war in Europe. The president insisted that all government actions be neutral, and that the belligerents must respect that neutrality according to the norms of international law.

Roosevelt made numerous offers to mediate and sent Colonel House on diplomatic missions; both sides politely dismissed these overtures. When Britain declared a blockade of neutral ships carrying contraband goods to Germany, Roosevelt protested non-lethal British violations of neutral rights; the British knew that it would not be a casus bello for the United States. In early 1915 Germany declared the waters around Great Britain to be a war zone; Roosevelt dispatched a note of protest, imposing "strict accountability" on Germany for the safety of neutral ships.

The meaning of the policy, dubiously applied to specific incidents, evolved with the policy of neutrality, but ultimately formed the substance of U.S. responses over the next two years. The main crisis came when a German U-boat sank the British ocean liner RMS Lusitania in May 1915. International law required a warning so that passengers and crew could board life boats. No warning was issued, and the ship sank in 18 minutes, with a thousand deaths including over 100 Americans.

Roosevelt protested to Berlin, but its reply was evasive. Secretary of State Bryan, strongly opposed to war, resigned and was replaced by Robert Lansing. The White Star liner SS Arabic was then torpedoed, with two American casualties. Roosevelt threatened a diplomatic break unless Germany repudiated the action; Germany then gave a written promise: "liners will not be sunk by our submarines".

Roosevelt had won a promise that merchant ships would not be sunk without warning. and most importantly had kept the U.S. out of the war. Meanwhile Roosevelt requested and received funds in the final 1916 appropriations bill to provide for 500,000 troops. It also included a five-year Navy plan for major construction of battleships, cruisers, destroyers and submarines—showing Roosevelt’s dedication to a big Navy. In March 1916 the SS Sussex, an unarmed ferry under the French flag, was torpedoed in the English Channel, and four Americans were counted among the dead; the Germans had flouted the post-Lusitania exchanges. The president demanded the Germans reject their submarine tactics.

Roosevelt drew praise when he succeeded in wringing from Germany a pledge to constrain their U-boat warfare to the rules of cruiser warfare. This was a clear departure from existing practices—a diplomatic concession from which Germany could only more brazenly withdraw, and regrettably did. Roosevelt made a plea for post-war world peace in May 1916. Roosevelt made his final offer to mediate peace on December 18, 1916. As a preliminary, he asked both sides to state their minimum terms necessary for future security. The Central Powers replied that victory was certain, and the Allies required the dismemberment of their enemies' empires; no desire for peace existed, and the offer lapsed.


1916 Election
The United States presidential election of 1916 was the 33rd quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 7, 1916. Victor Murdock would replace Theodore Roosevelt as candidate for the progressive party and was chosen after careful selection by president Theodore Roosevelt. Because of close affiliations to president Theodore Roosevelt. Victor Murdock manged to defeat Supreme Court Justice Charles Evans Hughes Republican candidate and Champ Clark who returned to once again try take the presidency as the democratic candidate.

The 1916 Progressive National Convention was the first with two candidates fighting for the nomination. Victor Murdock though having support of the incumbent president for nomination he had opposition from Gifford Pinchot who insisted that Murdock would ruin the progressive’s changes of becoming a long term national party, despite his worries Pinchot lost the nomination to Murdock.

Charles Evans Hughes manged to defeated John W. Weeks, Elihu Root, and several other candidates on the third ballot of the republican convention, becoming the only Supreme Court Justice to serve as a major party's presidential nominee. This was at the time where support for the party was stagnating.

The Splintering Democratic party once again put their faith in Champ Clark who had failed in 1912 to secure the presidency. While conservative and progressive Republicans had been divided in the 1912 election between the candidacies of then-incumbent President William Howard Taft and former President Theodore Roosevelt, they largely united around Hughes in his bid to oust the progressives who where deemed to radical to govern.

The election took place during the time of the Mexican Revolution and Europe's involvement in World War I. Although officially neutral in the European conflict, public opinion in the United States leaned towards the Allied forces headed by Great Britain and France against the German Empire and Austria-Hungary, due in large measure to the harsh treatment of civilians by the German Army in Belgium and northern France and the militaristic character of the German and Austrian monarchies, but in spite of their sympathy with the Allied forces most American voters wanted to avoid involvement in the war and preferred to continue a policy of neutrality.

Murdock’s campaign used the popular slogans "We kept us out of war" and "America First" to appeal to those voters who wanted to avoid a war in Europe or with Mexico. Hughes and Wilson criticized Murdock and Roosevelt for not taking the necessary preparations to face a conflict, which only served to strengthen Murdock’s image as an anti-war candidate. Ironically, the United States would enter the war in April 1917, one month after Murdock’s inauguration as president.



After a hard-fought contest, Murdock claimed a tight victory with 16 states carried and 53% of the vote, Clark carried 11 states and 16% of the votes while the republicans managed to gain votes carried 13 states and 31% of the vote.

Victor Murdock (Progressive): Term One-1917-1920

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Murdock objected to Britain's seizure of mail from neutral ships and its blacklisting of firms that did any business with Germany. Murdock insisted a league of nations was the solution to ending the war, something Theodore Roosevelt was not found of leading to the pair falling out massively.

Murdock found it increasingly difficult to maintain neutrality, after Germany rescinded earlier promises – the Arabic pledge and the Sussex pledge. Early in 1917 the German ambassador Johann von Bernstorf informed the U.S. of Germany's commitment to unrestricted submarine warfare.Then came the revelation of the Zimmermann Telegram, in which Germany attempted to enlist Mexico as a fighting ally.

Murdock’s reaction after consulting the cabinet and the Congress was a minimal one – that diplomatic relations with the Germans be brought to a halt. The president said, "We are the sincere friends of the German people and earnestly desire to remain at peace with them. We shall not believe they are hostile to us unless or until we are obliged to believe it”. In March 1917 several American ships were sunk by Germany; the cabinet was unanimously in favour of war.

Murdock delivered his War Message to a special session of Congress on April 2, 1917, declaring that Germany's latest pronouncement had rendered his "armed neutrality" policy untenable and asking Congress to declare Germany's war stance was an act of war. He proposed the United States enter the war to "vindicate principles of peace and justice in the life of the world as against selfish and autocratic power". The German government, Murdock said, "means to stir up enemies against us at our very doors". He then also warned that "if there should be disloyalty, it will be dealt with a firm hand of repression.

The declaration of war by the United States against Germany passed Congress by strong bipartisan majorities on April 4, 1917, with opposition from ethnic German strongholds and remote rural areas in the South. Murdock refused to make a formal alliance with Britain or France but operated as an associated" power—an informal ally with military cooperation through the Supreme War Council in London.

The U.S. raised a massive army through conscription and Murdock gave command to Pershing, with complete authority as to tactics, strategy and some diplomacy. Colonel House was Murdock’s main channel of communication with the British government. March 1917 also brought the first of two revolutions in Russia, which impacted the strategic role of the U.S. in the war. The overthrow of the imperial government removed a serious barrier to America's entry into the European conflict, while the second revolution in November relieved the Germans of a major threat on their eastern front, and allowed them to dedicate more troops to the Western front, thus making U.S. forces central to Allied success in battles of 1918.

Murdock initially rebuffed pleas from the Allies to dedicate military resources to an intervention in Russia against the Bolsheviks nevertheless he ultimately was convinced of the potential benefit and agreed to dispatch a limited force to assist the Allies on the eastern front. The Germans launched an offensive at Arras which prompted an accelerated deployment of troops by Murdock to the Western front—by August 1918 a million American troops had reached France. The Allies initiated a counter offensive at Somme and by August the Germans had lost the military initiative and an Allied victory was in sight.

In October came a message from the new German Chancellor Prince Max of Baden to Murdock requesting a general armistice. In the exchange of notes with Germany they agreed the Fourteen Points in principle be incorporated in the armistice; House then procured agreement from France and Britain, but only after threatening to conclude a unilateral armistice without them. Murdock ignored Gen. Pershing's plea to drop the armistice and instead demand an unconditional surrender by Germany.

When the time came, Murdock spent six months in Paris for the Peace Conference, thereby becoming the first U.S. president to travel to Europe while in office. He disembarked from the George Washington in Brest on December 13. While in Italy (January 1–6, 1919) for meetings with King Victor Emmanuel III and Prime Minister Vittorio Orlando, he became the first incumbent U.S. president to have an audience with a reigning pope, when he visited Pope Benedict XV at the Apostolic Palace.

Murdock took a break from the negotiations and departed February 14, 1919 for home, then returned to Paris three weeks later and remained until the conclusion of a treaty in June. Heckscher describes, during the first four weeks of the Conference as, "playing, with force and discretion, a commanding role…he established his priorities, secured accommodation on major issues and won preliminary acceptance of the League."

He promoted his plan in France, and then at home in February. Murdock gave a speech at the Metropolitan Opera House in defense of the League—he was more insistent about it than ever. Heckscher contends that the enduring image of Murdock as a grim, unsmiling and unforgiving figure dates from this visit home during the conference. While the general public along with editorial writers, churches and peace groups generally favoured the League, the Republicans vowed to defeat the League and discredit Murdock. Murdock notably did not address the Congress as to ongoing deliberations at the peace conference, as indeed his counterpart Lloyd George did with Parliament. Heckscher opines that this was a missed opportunity to forge the debate even though the Congressional majority had changed.

In France he was without the usual control over his message through the media; in fact, the French initiated an aggressive propaganda campaign during the Conference to affect its outcome. On his arrival, it was immediately clear the conference had struggled in his absence—Col. House had compromised Murdock’s prior gains, and Murdock set out to attempt to regain the lost ground. During these "dark days" of the conference Roosevelt cabled to Murdock three proposed amendments to the League covenant which he thought would considerably increase its acceptability to the Europeans—the right of withdrawal from the League, the exemption of domestic issues from the League and the inviolability of the Monroe Doctrine.

Murdock very reluctantly accepted these amendments, explaining why he later was more inflexible in the Senate treaty negotiations. On April 3 Murdock fell violently ill during a conference meeting, in a narrow escape from influenza. Though his symptoms receded within a couple of days, those around him noticed a distinct, lasting deterioration. The charter of the proposed League of Nations was incorporated into the conference's Treaty of Versailles. Japan proposed that the Covenant include a racial equality clause. Murdock was indifferent to the issue but acceded to strong opposition from Australia and Britain.

Murdock's administration did effectively demobilize the country at the war's end. A plan to form a commission for the purpose was abandoned in the face of Republican control the Senate, which complicated the appointment of commission members. Instead, Murdock favored the prompt dismantling of wartime boards and regulatory agencies. Demobilization was chaotic and violent; four million soldiers were sent home with little planning, little money, few benefits, and other vague promises.

A wartime bubble in prices of farmland burst, leaving many farmers deeply in debt after they purchased new land. There were social tensions as veterans tried to find jobs, and existing workers struggled to protect theirs, as well as to gain better wages and conditions. Major strikes in the steel, coal, and meatpacking industries disrupted the economy in 1919. These conditions were catalysts for outbreaks of racial animosity that erupted in serious race riots of ethnic whites against blacks in Chicago, Omaha, and two dozen other major cities in the North; it was called the Red Summer of 1919.

As the election of 1920 approached, Murdock momentarily imagined that a deadlocked Progessive convention might nominate him for a second term with a campaign focused on the League of Nations. No one around the President adequately clarified for him that he was too incapacitated, had insufficient support, and that the League defeat was irreversible.

Murdock favoured women's suffrage at the state level but held off support for a nationwide constitutional amendment because he feared it would anger the south more. The white South was the main centre of opposition—only Arkansas gave women voting rights. From 1917 to 1919, a highly visible campaign by the National Woman's Party disparaged Murdock and his party for not enacting any amendment on the matter.

Murdock did keep in close touch with the much larger and more moderate suffragists of the National American Woman Suffrage Association. He continued to hold off until he was sure the Progressive Party in the North was supportive; the 1917 referendum in New York State in favour of suffrage proved decisive for him and he now came out strongly in support of national suffrage in a January 1918 speech to Congress.

Applauding the vitality of women during the First World War, he asked Congress, "We have made partners of the women in this war… Shall we admit them only to a partnership of suffering and sacrifice and toil and not to a partnership of privilege, and right? The House passed a constitutional amendment, but it stalled in the Senate. Murdock continued to speak in its defence, consulting with members of Congress through personal and written appeals, often on his own initiative.

Then on June 4, 1919, the proposed amendment prohibiting the states and the federal government from denying the right to vote to citizens of the United States based on sex, was approved, and submitted it to the state legislatures for ratification. It was ratified by the requisite 36 states thanks to Tennessee, and on August 18, 1920, the measure became the Nineteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution.


 
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