What if the Vietnam War never happened?

[Marklin]

To be specific, this should be called "What if the Second Indochina War never happened" but most people know it as the Vietnam War. Basically what the title says, but to make this interesting, I have two scenarios in mind:

1. The Referendum is successful overwhelmingly (and legitimately, as unlikely as this is) for one of the two sides, leading to Vietnam being united under either Ngo or Ho. What would a Vietnam without the war unified under one of these two men look like?

2. Vietnam remains divided like Korea and no war breaks out. How does this affect the cold war in the region and in general?

In terms of my thoughts, I think this would result in something akin to a longer 50s in the US, but I still think the major social changes sweeping the nation in the 50s would occur around the time anyways. I think it would also see the POTUS visiting China be pushed back by at least a decade. LBJ's reputation would probably be associated with Civil Rights rather than the war.

As for the two vietnams, I'm not truly informed on what the two vietnam's governments were like or how they would evolve differently. From what I can tell, the South was a kleptocracy, so the best case scenario is that it would evolve into a corrupt democracy or fall into military dictatorship. The North I doubt goes down the path of the DPRK, but would market reforms still happen? I can see the regime being more pragmatic given (to my knowledge) Ho Chi Minh was more interested in the anti-imperial aspect of Communism rather than the economics, although his regime did implement a lot of standard Communist Schtick.

But what are y'alls thoughts?

 

[cra0422]

Personally I think the best chance to avoid the Vietnam War was for the US to recognize Vietnamese independence right after WW2. American OSS officer Archimedes Patti considered Ho Chi Minh to be a "good communist" who had been a staunch ally against Japan. Ho was first and foremost driven by independence for his country and FDR had made it clear that he had no intention of giving Indochina back to France. Unfortunately Harry Truman didn't share that sentiment.

If the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, which Ho Chi Minh proclaimed on September 2, 1945 after French puppet Emperor Bao Dai abdicated, was granted autonomy (or even just promised by the US that the French wouldn't come back to oppress them), Ho would feel obligated to remain on good terms with the U.S. if only to keep the French out. By being officially communist, China under Mao Zedong would be satisfied so long as Ho didn't seek territorial expansion. Also if China decided to move in, the Vietnamese would fight against their enemy of 2000+ years with American covert support.

France would probably sulk over losing their colonies and refuse to support the rearming of Germany, which might have made the Cold War more difficult, but not that much because the US military wouldn't be distracted in Southeast Asia. France might try to retake it's former colony but would fail without support from the US which would have been support Ho.

Internationally, peace in Vietnam would have promoted stability throughout all of Southeast Asia. Cambodia's monarchy wouldn't have been overthrown and Pol Pot would never have come to power, thus preventing the deaths of 2 million Cambodian people. Domestically the US would have $120 billion dollars to modernize it's defenses, which would like shorten the Cold War because the USSR didn't have budget to keep up technologically with the US. There would have been no runaway inflation or probably no Arab oil embargo. There'd still be the Civil Rights Movement but it would most likely not be as intense without unpopular war to protest as well.

 

[marathag]

France would probably sulk over losing their colonies and refuse to support the rearming of Germany, which might have made the Cold War more difficult,

After the Iron Curtain went up, WWIII was seen as a disaster to be avoided by showing strength and unity in the West, and the US needed every Ally it could get.
That included France
Their Price was wanting to keep their Colonies

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Easy. Have someone with Eisenhower's trust know about sino-vietnamese relations due to say reading up on their history. Ike ditches south vietnam and the area is reunified by 1960.

Worse sino-soviet relations with Vietnam as a bilateral issue between the two communist giants.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

After the Iron Curtain went up, WWIII was seen as a disaster to be avoided by showing strength and unity in the West, and the US needed every Ally it could get.
That included France
Their Price was wanting to keep their Colonies

The US had no problem telling Britain and France to shove it during the Suez Crisis.

 

[EarthmanNoEarth]

Would a successful Bay of Pigs Invasion and America going all in on Cuba prevent direct intervention in Vietnam?

 

[marathag]

The US had no problem telling Britain and France to shove it during the Suez Crisis.

That was 1956, a different President, a different World from 1949 with a brand new NATO, and China went Red and Soviets popped off a bomb of their own

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

That was 1956, a different President, a different World from 1949 with a brand new NATO, and China went Red and Soviets popped off a bomb of their own

Truman doesn't have to be the president at the time. Having FDR live a bit longer would probably do it, and the POD doesn't have to be in 1949.

 

[marathag]

Truman doesn't have to be the president at the time. Having FDR live a bit longer would probably do it, and the POD doesn't have to be in 1949.

FDR was on borrowed time as it was. Having him last to 1946 or 47 doesn't change what is going on in Europe.

FDR still trying to be friendly with Uncle Joe as the Iron Curtain goes up, just sinks Truman in '48, and might even keep Dewey from getting the Nod for the Rs, as Stassen was running far to his Right over Communism.

By 1948, it's obvious that the West half of Germany will be needed to be brought back into the fold, that that also means you need to keep France on board

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Killing FDR as soon as truman is confirmed VP is how you get less stupid postwar arrangements so assuming a longer life for FDR would *help* does not seem realistic. If anything, him living as long as he did OTL was why china and eastern europe was lost to the reds.

 

[Sam R.]

I think that the PRC and Soviet Union had something to do with the formal liberation and substantive enslavement of the peasants and workers of their regions respectively. Finding a stop line further East without tens to hundreds of thousands of Americans winning fabulous prizes is interesting. Finding a stop line in China without proving MacArthur horrifically correct is an even more interesting proposition.

 

[ECavalier]

Personally I think the best chance to avoid the Vietnam War was for the US to recognize Vietnamese independence right after WW2. American OSS officer Archimedes Patti considered Ho Chi Minh to be a "good communist" who had been a staunch ally against Japan. Ho was first and foremost driven by independence for his country and FDR had made it clear that he had no intention of giving Indochina back to France. Unfortunately Harry Truman didn't share that sentiment.

Of course this sort of assessment was made incorrectly plenty of times during the Cold War: Forbes Burnham

 

[HistoryGunsFreedom1776]

Would a successful Bay of Pigs Invasion and America going all in on Cuba prevent direct intervention in Vietnam?

No, arguably not in the slightest with Kennedy's support of flexible response and flexible response was becoming gospel OTL after 1958 or so due to, well, flexibility instead of inevitably escalating to total nuclear war. I would like to also note that concurrent with the first troops being sent to directly intervene in Vietnam was Operation: Powerpack under the purview of LBJ in which elements of the 2nd Marine Division as well as the 82nd Airborne were sent to the Dominican Republic.

Cuba is not in Southeast Asia but near Florida and Cuba wouldn't be a distraction for the nephews of Uncle Sam but rather a irritation for a time until the Castro holdouts who are cutoff from any resupply by the USSR are hunted down and dealt with. The United States of America could deal with Cuba and either refocus the rollback in Vietnam due to what the public sees as a success or do it concurrent albeit arguably with proportionally less boots needed on the ground.

 

[Leonidas]

One consequence, assuming the US doesn’t get into a conflict of similar magnitude, would be that research into PTSD continues to be delayed. People knew that soldiers in both World Wars came back with “shell shock,” but the government funding for studies inevitably dried up during peacetime. However, the combination of controversy surrounding the Vietnam War and the second wave feminist movement drawing attention to another major group of traumatized people, women who were raped or experienced domestic violence, made this field of study popular again. Without the combination of these pressures, PTSD might not be understood by psychologists to the same extent.

 

[RanulfC]

Killing FDR as soon as truman is confirmed VP is how you get less stupid postwar arrangements so assuming a longer life for FDR would *help* does not seem realistic. If anything, him living as long as he did OTL was why china and eastern europe was lost to the reds.

Not sure how that helps since a LOT of the post-war issues can already be laid at Truman's feet. He specifically didn't care about Asia and even though focused on Europe he wasn't really going out of his way to actively oppose Communist expansion. (He was busy drawing down the US military and expecting the atomic bomb and long range bombers to 'prevent' Communist spread. It didn't work btw)

In actually addressing what if the Vietnam war never happened I'll point out a couple of big items:
1) The US Military is a lot less 'prepared' for a war with the Soviets in the 80s as our 'kit' will be seriously out of date and generally 'aimed' in the wrong directions. (For example our ECM was very poor and it took Vietnam for it to radically improve. Similarly out air-to-air doctrine was unsound being based heavily on missiles when the technology for actual air-to-air engagement was still unready. Again it took the experience in Vietnam to change this trend and update the technology)

2) NASA is not going to have to compete with an ongoing war come the end of the Moon landings so there may be some budget available for post-Lunar programs unlike OTL.

Randy

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Thing is, the sandanistas in the late 70s plus other commies in central america seem like "perfect" candidates for an alt-vietnam in the late 70s and 1980s... That or Iran if you want.

 

[Sam R.]

>sandanistas
Maybe to 1965/66. I'm not sure they've got the staying power of the Vietnamese Workers Party. There are generational factors, factors in relative productive, military and social technology that allowed the VWP to behave as it did. And they almost emptied their well. On top of that there's a safe area bordering, two strong competing hegemonic New Class / Nomenklatura societies funding them, and an atypical generation of young men for states to murder.

I don't think Central America can get the US to 1974..

 

[Amadeus]

To be specific, this should be called "What if the Second Indochina War never happened" but most people know it as the Vietnam War. Basically what the title says, but to make this interesting, I have two scenarios in mind:

1. The Referendum is successful overwhelmingly (and legitimately, as unlikely as this is) for one of the two sides, leading to Vietnam being united under either Ngo or Ho. What would a Vietnam without the war unified under one of these two men look like?

2. Vietnam remains divided like Korea and no war breaks out. How does this affect the cold war in the region and in general?

In terms of my thoughts, I think this would result in something akin to a longer 50s in the US, but I still think the major social changes sweeping the nation in the 50s would occur around the time anyways. I think it would also see the POTUS visiting China be pushed back by at least a decade. LBJ's reputation would probably be associated with Civil Rights rather than the war.

As for the two vietnams, I'm not truly informed on what the two vietnam's governments were like or how they would evolve differently. From what I can tell, the South was a kleptocracy, so the best case scenario is that it would evolve into a corrupt democracy or fall into military dictatorship. The North I doubt goes down the path of the DPRK, but would market reforms still happen? I can see the regime being more pragmatic given (to my knowledge) Ho Chi Minh was more interested in the anti-imperial aspect of Communism rather than the economics, although his regime did implement a lot of standard Communist Schtick.

But what are y'alls thoughts?

I think there will be a war so long as Vietnam is divided. The North Vietnamese wanted a united Vietnam, and were willing to die by the millions to obtain it. The South Vietnamese government was perceived both by Ho and many in the Vietnamese countryside as a corrupt puppet state of a foreign power which did not want Vietnam to be truly independent.

The outcome in Indochina really depends upon alternative decisions being made by the Americans.
1. The Americans could have recognized Vietnamese independence following WWII.
2. The Americans could have allowed the elections to go as planned, resulting in a united Vietnam under Ho in 1956.
3. The Americans could decide not to put ground troops in Vietnam in 1965, which would likely result in the fall of Saigon sometime in the mid to late 1960s.

Either one of these scenarios would have at least prevented an American ground war in Vietnam, and the first two would have prevented the North-South war which began in 1959.

 

[raharris1973]

>sandanistas
Maybe to 1965/66. I'm not sure they've got the staying power of the Vietnamese Workers Party. There are generational factors, factors in relative productive, military and social technology that allowed the VWP to behave as it did. And they almost emptied their well. On top of that there's a safe area bordering, two strong competing hegemonic New Class / Nomenklatura societies funding them, and an atypical generation of young men for states to murder.

I don't think Central America can get the US to 1974..

And Iran?

America can’t necessarily saturate it with troops, firepower and money and make every local family have multiple war brides with access to yankee dollars for their families like would happen in any Central American war.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

The Moon Race still goes mostly as OTL: Russia fails because apparatchiks ran things, and the U.S. cancels Apollo after a few victory laps because Mars is too expensive even without Vietnam.