I want to see what people would think would happen if the Vietnam lasted longer than it did. What would happen to the USA? Would North Vietnam fall? What other unforeseen events would happen?
What if the Vietnam war lasted longer?
- Thread starter Mrfunnybones39
- Start date
@Sam R. made some pretty relevant posts in this thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-an-escalated-vietnam-war.384705/
Normally people don't let me speculate regarding "escalation," because I've very convincingly talked about what mobilisation and reduced consumer incomes due to industrial mobilisation cause. Normally I just get to talk about how the VWP was ready for 3 year rolling offensives until the bodies run out around 1990, but that the US wasn't ready to continuously support by major air reorganisation on a similar basis. There's also the Juicy possibility that in the 1978 offensive the Soviet Union loans *a lot* of air supremacy resources and the Vietnam war ends with the image of short tankodesantniki taking the US embassy, and of B52s falling to earth like damned angels.
While my estimate of the pace of social change in the US may have been a little fast in that thread, it mirrors the rapidity with which societies undergoing rapid crisis with "Hope" in the air change, Imperial Germany being the obvious model.
The failure of Coldfront and the New Farmers Labourers Democratic Party I think are a foregone conclusion. You can just hear them in IRA bars in the Republic, trying to raise money to send Armalites to Boston.
I'd like to think C— P— achieved the presidency via formally legal means. Like threatening to torture people's children (helicopter rides fits the Vietnam theme) until he's appointed to the succession and then threatening to torture more children (but only space for one of you on my helicopter) until everyone above him resigns. He's a big guy.
yours,
Sam R.
While my estimate of the pace of social change in the US may have been a little fast in that thread, it mirrors the rapidity with which societies undergoing rapid crisis with "Hope" in the air change, Imperial Germany being the obvious model.
The failure of Coldfront and the New Farmers Labourers Democratic Party I think are a foregone conclusion. You can just hear them in IRA bars in the Republic, trying to raise money to send Armalites to Boston.
I'd like to think C— P— achieved the presidency via formally legal means. Like threatening to torture people's children (helicopter rides fits the Vietnam theme) until he's appointed to the succession and then threatening to torture more children (but only space for one of you on my helicopter) until everyone above him resigns. He's a big guy.
yours,
Sam R.
Eh, I don't think the New Farmers Labourers Democratic Party is doomed to fail or the coup is inevitavle. Between the economic problems of the early 80s the republican elected in 1980(given unstable environment with both Iran in '79 and Vietnam in early 1980 falling obviously Reagan).
My guess is you see that party winning in 1984 with Business attempting extralegal shenanigans, think business plot or 1/6 with actual money behind them. My guess is you get sporadic rightwing terrorism in the 80s and 90s with the hard right using a martyred Reagan[1]. Reagan's VP, Goldwater or Ashbrook would accept the results of the 1984 election and not continue Shenanigans. You'd see the US moving economically "left" in certain ways.
Well, economically "left" in the sense of elites having to bribe people with things like national healthcare, an unconditional basic income and a guaranteed income for those adults who are employed/over 62/currently in education in the 70s[2], plus probably expansions of those in the 1980s under DFL. US would remain basically a capitalist society, difference is unions are stronger/workers have a bit more leverage and there's more redistribution. Well ok, there'd be some structural change in that the upper middle class/professional-managerial class is thrown to the wolves and it's members are proletarianized -- the 1%/owning class would want to minimize their losses as much as possible and gutting the PMC/upper middle class plus probably the more prosperous echelons of the white collar bits of the middle class is the alternative chosen. Certain white collar types losing out quite a bit and moves closer to social democracy isn't the radical shift DFL officeholders who win in 1984 envision but well, they get _something_.
[1] Shot dead by DC cops during an attempt to disrupt the electoral vote count in january 1985.
[2] HHH wins in 1968 without the image of failure. HHH was big on populist redistribution plus you know, you'd need to do something to appease the proles given the circumstances.
Would the Taiwanese get in on this? Fear of A P.R.C troop deployment had kept Chang and his comrades out of the Vietnam war directly. ITTL there might be an incentive to jack up participation.
What? Afaik the political environment wasn't that (for lack of a better word) insane at that point.
Sam R's million man vietnam escalation makes things more... "interesting".
I wonder what the butterflies will be worldwide. I think if the Vietnam War lasted longer like Afghanistan of the 21st century, then I guess you'd butterfly the boat people that went into Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.
We might see newer weapons such as the F-14, F-15, and F-16 be used in the Vietnam War by the time of the late 70s/early 80s.
Perhaps Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines never recognizes Hanoi just as he did in the final days of the war. This butterflies away the Philippine Navy getting the RVN's surplus warships that fled to Subic in the summer of 1975 (summer in the Philippines is March-June for those wondering).
Now this got me thinking about what happens to Iran and Afghanistan. Does a longer Vietnam War mean the the Iranian revolution is butterflied away? Will the Soviets still invade Afghanistan?
There's a lot of butterflies in this scenario.
We might see newer weapons such as the F-14, F-15, and F-16 be used in the Vietnam War by the time of the late 70s/early 80s.
Perhaps Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines never recognizes Hanoi just as he did in the final days of the war. This butterflies away the Philippine Navy getting the RVN's surplus warships that fled to Subic in the summer of 1975 (summer in the Philippines is March-June for those wondering).
Now this got me thinking about what happens to Iran and Afghanistan. Does a longer Vietnam War mean the the Iranian revolution is butterflied away? Will the Soviets still invade Afghanistan?
There's a lot of butterflies in this scenario.
