What if the US Invasion of Grenada escalated into something bigger?

[Thehappyvampire]

What if the troops of the Grenada People's Revolutionary Government and the Cuban presence in Grenada were considerably more determined and fanatical in their goals thus resulting in higher US causalities?

Perhaps Hudson Austin and Fidel Castro felt considerably emotional and inspired to continue a conflict against the United States of America and its coalition of Caribbean allies. Maybe hoping to obtain international sympathies.

Instead of the US Invasion of Grenada simply being a small part of American-related conflicts, it created the Caribbean War.

How would the Ronald Reagan administration handle an all-out war against the Grenada PRG and the Republic of Cuba? How long could this conflict last? How would the international community react to this? Would the Caribbean Peace Corps stick with the US? Could this war lead to World War 3?

 

[Lalli]

There is really small chances for WW3. Soviets are not going to help Cuba or Grenadan communists since they know that it would has really bad consueqences. It just would state that Cuba and Grenada can just blame themselves over war in Caribbean.

 

[Clandango]

Are the Cubans landing on loads of islands? It would be interesting to see the French and British navies and air forces involved if they attack their territory and Crown Colonies. Also, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are likely large enough and in the way of the Lesser Antilles that they put up a decent fight against the Cubans, if they should try to land. Might be better to hav the Cubans supporting Puerto Rican nationalists. As Puerto Ricans both tried to assassinate the American President and got into Congress and fired off weapons that hit five Representatives, you might be able to find some radical supporters for them to claim to help, or to support them landing. Granted it was President Truman and the shooting was in 1953, so it had been quite some time.

 

[SunilTanna]

How?

On Grenada itself, the US can easily isolate the tiny island and then overwhelm with numbers. Tougher resistance means slightly higher US casualties. Not strategically significant.

If Castro wants to open a new front elsewhere outside of Cuba, he is just sending forces to their doom.

Maybe a bit of terrorism type stuff? That's really all he can do. Since Cuba is doing that anyway, does the US really notice the difference? No strategic impact. Anyway.

 

[racevedo88]

Are the Cubans landing on loads of islands? It would be interesting to see the French and British navies and air forces involved if they attack their territory and Crown Colonies. Also, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are likely large enough and in the way of the Lesser Antilles that they put up a decent fight against the Cubans, if they should try to land. Might be better to hav the Cubans supporting Puerto Rican nationalists. As Puerto Ricans both tried to assassinate the American President and got d in Cubainto Congress and fired off weapons that hit five Representatives, you might be able to find some radical supporters for them to claim to help, or to support them landing. Granted it was President Truman and the shooting was in 1953, so it had been quite some time.

Actually, they did. the leader of the Fuerzas Armadas de Col in the KGB and have been trained in Cuba. Their weapons supplies ran from the Soviet Union through Cuba to them. But in reality it was a very small group who never amounted to more than 2000 people

 

[njslim]

What if the troops of the Grenada People's Revolutionary Government and the Cuban presence in Grenada were considerably more determined and fanatical in their goals thus resulting in higher US causalities?

Perhaps Hudson Austin and Fidel Castro felt considerably emotional and inspired to continue a conflict against the United States of America and its coalition of Caribbean allies. Maybe hoping to obtain international sympathies.

Instead of the US Invasion of Grenada simply being a small part of American-related conflicts, it created the Caribbean War.

How would the Ronald Reagan administration handle an all-out war against the Grenada PRG and the Republic of Cuba? How long could this conflict last? How would the international community react to this? Would the Caribbean Peace Corps stick with the US? Could this war lead to World War 3?

I was in DC the week the Grenada operation went down Went out to Andres and checked out the captured weapons There were 1600 AK type rifles, 4000 SKS semi auto rifles, 1000 obsolete Czech Type 52 semi auto, several thousand Mosin Type 44 bolt actions several hundred submachine guns (PPS, Czech type 23) . , 12 APC (BRDM/BT60), Crew served dual 23 mm and quad 12.7 AAA along with RPG 2 grenade launchers All on island of 100.000 people

 

[Monk78]

Are the Cubans landing on loads of islands? It would be interesting to see the French and British navies and air forces involved if they attack their territory and Crown Colonies. Also, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are likely large enough and in the way of the Lesser Antilles that they put up a decent fight against the Cubans, if they should try to land. Might be better to hav the Cubans supporting Puerto Rican nationalists. As Puerto Ricans both tried to assassinate the American President and got into Congress and fired off weapons that hit five Representatives, you might be able to find some radical supporters for them to claim to help, or to support them landing. Granted it was President Truman and the shooting was in 1953, so it had been quite some time.

Do Cubans even have a sea lift capability? I’m not sure

 

[Matt Wiser]

The Cubans might have tried striking Florida: the Cuban AF's Chief of Operations flew a MiG to NAS Key West a few years later and told his debriefers that after the invasion, Fidel had his Air Force Operations people draw up plans for attacking targets in South Florida-including the Turkey Creek Nuclear Plant. When the Russians got wind of this, they told the Cubans, in no uncertain terms: "If you do this, you are at war with the U.S., and we will do nothing to support you. Soviet forces in Cuba will stay out, and you will be on your own."

Fidel, in this case, might just do it anyway-he wanted a final confrontation with the U.S., and hitting a target in Florida-even if not the Nuclear Plant, would have gotten him what he wanted.

 

[Gillan1220]

Do Cubans even have a sea lift capability? I’m not sure

No, the Cubans don't and what limited barges they can offer can be sunk by the U.S. Navy or the Coast Guard.

The Soviets were not going to risk World War III for a tiny island far from its shores. They were already humiliated in Cuba, they won't do it again for the second time in just 21 years.

 

[Clandango]

The Cubans might have tried striking Florida: the Cuban AF's Chief of Operations flew a MiG to NAS Key West a few years later and told his debriefers that after the invasion, Fidel had his Air Force Operations people draw up plans for attacking targets in South Florida-including the Turkey Creek Nuclear Plant. When the Russians got wind of this, they told the Cubans, in no uncertain terms: "If you do this, you are at war with the U.S., and we will do nothing to support you. Soviet forces in Cuba will stay out, and you will be on your own."

Fidel, in this case, might just do it anyway-he wanted a final confrontation with the U.S., and hitting a target in Florida-even if not the Nuclear Plant, would have gotten him what he wanted.

No, the Cubans don't and what limited barges they can offer can be sunk by the U.S. Navy or the Coast Guard.

The Soviets were not going to risk World War III for a tiny island far from its shores. They were already humiliated in Cuba, they won't do it again for the second time in just 21 years.

Ahhh yes, while they did get the Americans to withdrawal nuclear missiles from Turkey and possibly Italy, it was a secret arrangement so the high and low of Russia bought Khrushchev caved in without getting anything out of it besides having the Americans publicly say they would not invade. The Soviets are going to be seething about the Cubans messing this up if they do invade or attack the United States directly, as it it will both nullify the one public concession they got from the Missile Crisis, but if the Cubans somehow make it that the Soviets feel obligated to enter... Well, I doubt they would, but it is bad press for them in the developing world if they do not back up these small countries or if their soldiers and citizens die without retribution against the Americans.

I suspect they would just not say the Americans did it (though the Americans are likely to just avoid hitting the Soviet embassies, so not a big deal) and either quietly leave or stay holed up in their embassies while looking for some other party they can support in the future for Cuba. Alas, Cuba is bound to go Condor Pact or something, though here it would be interesting as you would have so many people returning from the United States, so it might be the middle classes running things. Depends if they get their property back rather than the rich. It helps that, unlike in the French Revolution, property was not either given directly to peasants or sold to the wealthy. I think? I didn’t read much on what the communists did. Now, depending on if Cuba attacks Haiti or the Dominican Republic, we may also see even more- actually, whatever Cuba does is not going to change much of what the elites of Latin America think of communists, will it?

 

[West234]

The Cubans might have tried striking Florida: the Cuban AF's Chief of Operations flew a MiG to NAS Key West a few years later and told his debriefers that after the invasion, Fidel had his Air Force Operations people draw up plans for attacking targets in South Florida-including the Turkey Creek Nuclear Plant. When the Russians got wind of this, they told the Cubans, in no uncertain terms: "If you do this, you are at war with the U.S., and we will do nothing to support you. Soviet forces in Cuba will stay out, and you will be on your own."

Fidel, in this case, might just do it anyway-he wanted a final confrontation with the U.S., and hitting a target in Florida-even if not the Nuclear Plant, would have gotten him what he wanted.

Castro was an ideologue but he wasn’t stupid and he would have enough sense to not sign his own death wish by attacking America directly. The most I can see is him pulling like what he did in Angola and put in massive amounts of resources and men into Grenada. Not sure how helpful that would be as there is only so much you can do for a small island that will eventually be over run and surrounded he will also be sighing a death wish for any troops stuck on the island as escape will be impossible with American navel superiority

 

[Cryptic]

No, the Cubans don't and what limited barges they can offer can be sunk by the U.S. Navy or the Coast Guard.

The Soviets were not going to risk World War III for a tiny island far from its shores. They were already humiliated in Cuba, they won't do it again for the second time in just 21 years.

Though I agree that the USSR was not going to risk WWIII over Grenada, I think you are misinterpreting the the Soviet view of the Cuban missile crisis.

Though humiliated, the USSR were not intimidated. They then made a "Never again." type promise to themselves. In pursuit of that, they spend a generation building up their military to keep that promise. No amount of Soviet build up was going to keep Cuba communist- if the US, really, really wanted to take Cuba as an existential need.

But... the Soviets could trade Turkey for Cuba in regards to costly invasions and occupations. Sure, Turkey is NATO, but there were also plenty of NATO countries in the early 1980s whose NATO commitments would dwindle to "token" if they concluded that the USA had initiated an avoidable conflict.

Other targets of Soviet reaction could include an intervention followed by the installation of a left wing regime in Iran ( The Ayatollah had a left wing rival Ayatollah (assassiataed via a bomb in a mosque pulpit?). His movement was then violently squeezed out after the Shah fell. Heck, the USSR playbook might also include the occupation of sparsely populated northern Norway.

At the end of the day, there was no way that the 1980s Soviets were just going to concede Cuba by staying home.

 

[TimTurner]

I am asking myself, "if Castro did do this, does he want to give up aiding Angola?"
It's not like Castro's resources are unlimited.

 

[minhow]

Could it escalate and cause tension between US and Britain? Nothing major, but diplomatic problems? Grenada was still a commonweath country, despite of communism.

 

[TimTurner]

Could it escalate and cause tension between US and Britain? Nothing major, but diplomatic problems? Grenada was still a commonweath country, despite of communism.

I think there was tension OTL, right? Certainly we could see more of that ITTL if things go differently,

 

[njslim]

In Wikipedia page reference Osprey publication that 2 Soviets were wounded in the operation After island was secured the Grenada government expelled Soviets, North Korea, Libyan, East Germans from the island When there were leaving US Military searched their baggage before transporting them to Mexico for repatriation
Seized 3 dozen weapons , Wonder if these were KGB or Spetsnaz operatives caught up in fighting

"American officials said the departure of the diplomats to Mexico was delayed because they tried to ''smuggle'' out a small arsenal of 38 AK-47 rifles, 300 ammunition magazines and five pistols aboard the aircraft."

 

[njslim]

Here is some more I found - declassified CIA memo outlining number of Soviet Bloc personnel on island

EVACUATION OF SOVIET AND BLOC PERSONNEL FROM GRENADA | CIA FOIA (foia.cia.gov)

www.cia.gov

 

[Thehappyvampire]

Castro was an ideologue but he wasn’t stupid and he would have enough sense to not sign his own death wish by attacking America directly. The most I can see is him pulling like what he did in Angola and put in massive amounts of resources and men into Grenada. Not sure how helpful that would be as there is only so much you can do for a small island that will eventually be over run and surrounded he will also be sighing a death wish for any troops stuck on the island as escape will be impossible with American navel superiority

Castro would probably conclude that the Grenada Communists, despite their determination in this scenario, are doomed and decide that it best to concentrate resources on fortifying Cuba for an American sea invasion.

 

[Gillan1220]

Castro would probably conclude that the Grenada Communists, despite their determination in this scenario, are doomed and decide that it best to concentrate resources on fortifying Cuba for an American sea invasion.

Castro also does not have the resources to support the Grenadan communists. A huge portion of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces were in Angola supporting the MPLA. As you said, the rest would be needed at home to prevent an invasion, In 1983, memories of the Bay of Pigs invasion would still be fresh among the Cubans.

 

[Thehappyvampire]

Cuba possesses T-55s, T-62s, and PT-76 tanks. Because of these vehicles, would this mean the M1 Abrams tanks will have their first taste of real combat in the Caribbean War instead of the Gulf War? If so, would the Abrams be getting a less glorious introduction because the terrain of Cuba is notably less tank-friendly when comparing it to Kuwait and Iraq with very determined Cuban fighters?