What If the United States won at Wake Island

[ejpsan]

While it is near impossible for this to happen, the United States Navy tried to relive the island after the first invasion attempt and only turned back when they found out that the IJN was there first with a superior force.
So what if the USN got there first, would the IJN would have been the ones to turn away?
The United States made no attempt to regain the island during the war and it used the island as way for the USN to gain experience for its aircrew by raiding the Japanese on the island by passing task forces. What would the effect on the war in the Pacific be if the United States was able to hold the island beyond the propaganda value?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

It does allow for some of the longer range aircraft to be ferried around but the distances are still vast

1200 miles from Midway to Wake

2000 odd miles to Pearl Harbour

Wake to Clark Air Force base in the PH is over 3,000 miles

So other than being a useful base for LRMPA to be based out of its location is difficult to see its retention being that useful in the 'early' Pacific war

There are several actions in WW2, of which this is one that really make me cross with regards to the utter futility of their loss (its up their with the Hong Kong Garrison which should have been evacuated to Malaya and at the very least not reinforced, Stand of the 30th Brigade at Calais - who should have been evacuated the day before the town surrendered ) and the abandonment of those men (including the dutch workers who were nearly all murdered) should be seen as an embarrassment by the leaders who left them there.

 

[Riain]

It's been a while but I think the relief failed because the cargo ships waited until the carrier was ready rather than leaving and getting the carrier to catch up.

As for its effect, iirc it was within medium bomber range of some Japanese island bases. If it was held it would exert an influence much like Tobruk did in 1941, a thorn in the Japanese side and useful if not decisive base of operations.

 

[jlckansas]

It puts a delay/defeat in the timetable of what happened IOTL. Depending on what they loose in battle it can hurt the timetable with everything from just a simple hiccoup all the way to knocking some other invasion completely off the board on down the line. Ships and units used here were later, as in days and weeks, used for other invasions and reinforcements of ongoing battles.

 

[marathag]

Makes for a morale boost. Not many of those before the Dolittle Raid.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

If a evacuation follows the second Japanese defeat it's a sound victory. A notable read guard action.

OTL there were a lot of planning failures. The mistimed refueling of the destroyers was another. In hindsight Fletcher could have pulled it off, but he had no clue where the IJN fleet was. Risking one of the three Pacific carriers at that point was a huge decision. Both he and his boss Adm Pye choose the low risk option.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I like the idea Carl

So they win the 2nd round with the timely arrival of Fletcher who with a cool head and then tacit permission from his superiors evacuates the Island - but not before destroying as much as possible - ie the runway, storage facilities and guns etc

This could be easily swung as a victory - I can see the Movie remake now

 

[Raferty]

They probably could do an evac with submarines or destroyers, just as the Japanese did as time went on in the war and transport ships became quite the fat juicy target for enemy submarines and planes. The garrison was not that large.

As for the concept of winning, keep in mind how isolated Wake is. The Japanese can easily control approaches to the Island using a submarine blockade, just as the USN did later on in the war. A relief effort is going to be exactly that, an effort at relieving the garrison from destruction, not for establishing naval control in the region and holding against a concentration of Japanese Naval Strength.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

submarine blockade,

Thats not the job of IJN submarines

 

[ejpsan]

So the consensus view so far is that a victory by the United States is able to withdraw from Wake Island in good form and destroying anything that is useful, and letting the Japanese get stuck with it.

 

[viperjock]

So the consensus view so far is that a victory by the United States is able to withdraw from Wake Island in good form and destroying anything that is useful, and letting the Japanese get stuck with it.

Yes that would be the best option, a Pacific Dunkirk. There really wouldn’t be much left on Wake Island after days of constant bombing by the Japanese. Pull out the 1st Marine Defense Battalion and they can reinforce the Midway garrison. Any surviving VMF-211 pilots are going to bring first hand experience on how to fight the Japanese in the air.
Maybe the Japanese occupy Wake Island as part of the Midway Operation to draw the US fleet out?

 

[eltf177]

[snip]If a evacuation follows the second Japanese defeat it's a sound victory. A notable rea[r] guard action.

The plan was once the supplies were unloaded most of the contractors were to be taken off the island. The Marines were to stay but be reinforced and resupplied.
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[snip]They probably could do an evac with submarines or destroyers, just as the Japanese did as time went on in the war and transport ships became quite the fat juicy target for enemy submarines and planes. The garrison was not that large.

The Marine garrison wasn't that large but there were over a thousand contractors on the island, subs can't get that many off quickly.

I agree with abandoning the island, save the men for later. But you can't do anything for the poor sods in the Philippines...

 

[jlckansas]

Keeping Wake does not hurt the US. The Japanese still have quite a distance to travel to the island and they would have an even worse time trying to blockade the island. They could not use surface ships and it was against IJN submarine doctrine to go after merchant ships.

 

[David Floyd]

If you base a full Marine Defense Battalion with a couple tank companies, a strong air component, and submarines at wake, nothing the IJN has is going to take it away, but you might tempt them into trying.

 

[Riain]

If Wake held its danger zone would only be a few months, it might be the centrepiece of early 1942 carrier battles instead of Coral Sea or a climactic battle like Midway. After the danger zone had passed its role would become offensive, supporting operations further southwest in late 1942 like OTL Guadalcanal. By 1943 it would be a useful backwater.

 

[Driftless]

If Wake held its danger zone would only be a few months, it might be the centrepiece of early 1942 carrier battles instead of Coral Sea or a climactic battle like Midway. After the danger zone had passed its role would become offensive, supporting operations further southwest in late 1942 like OTL Guadalcanal. By 1943 it would be a useful backwater.

Open up the lagoon more for a sub tender? That action would make Wake a useful location for a forward base for subs.

 

[viperjock]

There is the chance that Wake Island is not evacuated by The Marines in the name of national honor. Wake Island could finally get it's radar station which means Japanese air raids from the Marshall Islands get intercepted. I could see the navy staging some PBYs there for patrol duty (that was actually part of the pre-war plan). The USAAF might fly some B-24s out of there for an occasional raid against the Marshalls.
Engineers could improve the runway and use it as an emergency airfield for B-29s headed to the Marianas in 1944-45.