What if the Umayyads win the Battle of Toulouse (721)?

[Sirius]

From Wikipedia:

Al-Samh ibn Malik al-Khawlani, the wali (governor) of Al-Andalus, built up a strong army from Umayyad territories to conquer Aquitaine, a large duchy in the southwest of modern-day France, formally under Frankish sovereignty, but in practice almost independent in the hands of the dukes of Aquitaine. He besieged the city of Toulouse, then Aquitaine's most important city, and Duke Odo of Aquitaine, also known as Eudes, immediately left to find help. He asked the assistance of Charles Martel, who in turn preferred to wait and see rather than help his southern rival. Odo returned three months later, just as the city was about to surrender, and attacked the Umayyad investing force on June 9.


The victory was essentially the result of a classic enveloping movement by Odo. After Odo originally fled, the Umayyads became overconfident, and instead of maintaining strong outer defenses around their siege camp, and continuously scouting, did neither. Thus, when Odo returned, he was able to launch an almost total surprise attack on the siege force, scattering it with the first attack, and slaughtering units that were resting or fled without weapons or armour.

Say that the Umayyad army maintained proper vigilance and thus was able to defeat Odo's army and then take Toulouse. Aquitane is now under Muslim control and the Umayyad army will be looking to continue north, to conquer the Franks. Can they do it? How far can they go?

 

[LSCatilina]

Say that the Umayyad army maintained proper vigilance and thus was able to defeat Odo's army and then take Toulouse. Aquitane is now under Muslim control and the Umayyad army will be looking to continue north, to conquer the Franks. Can they do it? How far can they go?

The problem with Arabo-Berbers army (rather than Umayyad, as the caliphal authority over Al-Andalus was limited, at best), was they were limited. IOTL, you had only one lasting garrison north of Pyrennes, in Narbonne.
At best, they would have a garrison in Toulouse (admitting they maintain their rule on the city and not just plunder it) and would be able to reach further points for their raids, with all the rest of southern Aquitaine being under local Christian rule (under Arabo-Berber suzerainty).

But even there, it's likely that Arabo-Berber would loose Aquitaine even before they loose Septimania : the region was a bit undefendable (safe on Pyrenean piemont), and the unstability of early Al-Andalus (Berbers revolts, factional conflicts, Yemenit vs. Syrians, etc.) wouldn't help at all.

What's more important is that Vasconia, even with a conquered Toulouse, would still stand and that was the main military ressource of Aquitaine with its northern part. So, Franco-Aquitains have still the manpower to deal with Arabo-Berbers locally.

With Franks being united at this point (critically with Aquitains being under their influence, after this defeat), even a relativly more further outpost isn't going to do much good. If things happen more or less as IOTL, I could see Southern Aquitaine under Arabo-Berber domination collapsing at latest in the 730's as northern Septimania IOTL.

That said, I think a capture of Toulouse could quicken events, and having raids on Rhone and Loire valleys happening earlier with Charles of Herstal using them to gain enough prestige and legitimacy to take out Aquitaine in a whole, something he wasn't able to do IOTL.

 

[Huehuecoyotl]

I think the expansionary power of the Andalusi Muslims past the Pyrenees is sometimes over-exaggerated. This is when their great waves of conquest into western Europe were ebbing, and no amount of military victories against the Franks will change that.

 

[Scorpius72]

I don't know much about this particular bit of history but what I do know suggests that the Muslims were over-extended by the time they got to Toulouse so even if they won the battle they wouldn't be able to keep it for long. Even if Odo hadn't won I suspect the presence of a large Muslim army that far north would've acted as a rallying point for the other Frankish forces and so in term they would be forced out so it then becomes a question of how much, if any, loot and slaves they manage to take with them and how many men they lose in the process.