What if the Siege of Salerno (871/872 AD) was successful?

[Pneumic]

The available sources at the time provide limited information about events beyond the Lombard core areas. Still, by 860, the Muslims appeared to be as strong in southern Italy as they were in Sicily, indicating their potential for complete conquest in the region. Their dominance extended the major ports of Bari and Taranto, as they also took control of Amantea on Calabria's western coast, and further expanded across the interior regions when they successfully captured Matera and Oria. At the same time, the Lombard rulers were deeply embroiled in personal rivalries and open hostilities which the Carolingian emperor Louis II had to navigate with mixed results, complicating any defense from the Bari and Taranto Arabs. Nonetheless, he managed to launch multiple offensives and captured both Matera and Oria in 867 and ultimately managed to retake Bari in February 871 with the help of the Byzantines. The relationship between Arabs and the various Christian actors in the region was, however, ultimately more ambivalent; Arab tradesmen were present in the towns of the Lombard principalities and Amalfitan merchants were present in Arab ports, and Lombard princes such as Guaifer entertained and employed the so-called "Saraceni".

This was roughly and very broadly the context for the siege of Salerno in late fall 871: an Aghlabid army from Sicily, thirty thousand men according to the chronicler Erchempert, at least indicating that this was a sizable force for its time regardless of exaggerations, ravaged Calabria and moved further North, capturing many towns. Unlike previous raids, this seems to have been a war of conquest, and it was aimed at Salerno, one of the most critical places in Southern Italy, though the town was prepared by advanced knowledge of the coming army on the part of the Christians. Even then, the situation has been desperate and the city was only relieved of the siege with both Amalfitan and Imperial support, the latter abandoning a siege of Taranto for their effort and eventually triggering even a personal intervention of Louis II, after several months. The unsuccessful siege of Salerno thus marked the pinnacle of organized Aghlabid engagement on the mainland, after which they ultimately sailed back to Sicily after more engagements with Italian armies after their retreat. After achieving triumph, Louis II spent a year stationed in Capua, advancing his authority over the Lombard principalities, a long-standing goal of his which was IOTL ultimately unsuccessful too. The fall of Salerno could be quite feasibly achieved by removing the preparedness of the Salernitans by containing information about the coming army. Another way would be to (significantly) delay the support from the other Christian actors, Louis II in particular was previously imprisoned by Prince Adelchis of Benevento who made the emperor swear to not return to Benevento, a period of time which could be extended by slowing negotiations of release. My point is that there are many points that went just right to save the city from capture, yet it still almost fell IOTL.

So, with all of that said, what if Salerno fell to the besieging Aghlabid forces under 'Abd Allah in 871 or 872? What would be the fate of Prince Guaifer of Salerno and Emperor Louis II? What would the consequences of an Aghlabid-controlled Apulia be? How long could it be feasibly controlled? I find this period in Italy to be highly interesting and a bit underexplored, I personally wouldn't be so sure about this being too much of a short-lasting conquest: As said before, Southern Italy was deeply troubled and disunited without having the resources to surgically strike against the Arab presence, the fall of Salerno would just further diminish the power that was IOTL needed to remove it in the next two centuries. One could also additionally expand this PoD by including an earlier death for the Carolingian Emperor in battle instead of his Count Cuntart, though the consequences thereof may be too unpredictable. What do you think?

 

[Nivek]

What would be the fate of Prince Guaifer of Salerno and Emperor Louis II?

Either they get ransomed or will Try something stupid and get killed

It would be very interesting a Muslim presence in the south of the boot, with more land a more organized defense against vikes would be achieved...

 

[Pneumic]

Either they get ransomed or will Try something stupid and get killed

It would be very interesting a Muslim presence in the south of the boot, with more land a more organized defense against vikes would be achieved...

To be fair, we're preceding the establishment of Normandy by almost four decades, more than a century until we see any significant Norman presence in Italy, I think it's at least fair to say that it's not too unlikely that at least the Norman Kingdom of Sicily is butterflown away, perhaps even the establishment of Normandy itself depending on the situation of the Imperial Crown and how this interacts with West Francia.

On another note, Aghlabid Apulia might accelerate the fall of Syracuse in Sicily. Maybe I'm stretching it, but it might actually be enough of a disturbance in the balance of power to allow a more permanent Arab presence in Italy, even assuming a similar trajectory for the Aghlabids as IOTL, since I struggle to see how the Christians could organize a liberation of an Arab-controlled Salerno, much less an organization of a campaign in Sicily. It would take the equivalent of some taifa period in Arab Italy to really allow for such a thing, though I guess it's up to the author how to proceed with it.

 

[Nivek]

To be fair, we're preceding the establishment of Normandy by almost four decades, more than a century until we see any significant Norman presence in Italy, I think it's at least fair to say that it's not too unlikely that at least the Norman Kingdom of Sicily is butterflown away, perhaps even the establishment of Normandy itself depending on the situation of the Imperial Crown and how this interacts with West Francia.

On another note, Aghlabid Apulia might accelerate the fall of Syracuse in Sicily. Maybe I'm stretching it, but it might actually be enough of a disturbance in the balance of power to allow a more permanent Arab presence in Italy, even assuming a similar trajectory for the Aghlabids as IOTL, since I struggle to see how the Christians could organize a liberation of an Arab-controlled Salerno, much less an organization of a campaign in Sicily. It would take the equivalent of some taifa period in Arab Italy to really allow for such a thing, though I guess it's up to the author how to proceed with it.

Yeah i forgot the Normandy and Normans were much later. And if the butterflies hit Francia...that will be fun in the Chinese sense.

The Whole Mediterranean would be very fun too, Sicily could be Muslim for a long time to forever depending the butterflies too, But the presence in Salerno is more interesting, a gradual powerbase and moving north?

 

[Pneumic]

Another thing, IOTL rumors of Louis II's death spread north of the Alps even without the success of the siege of Salerno during the arrest of the imperial household by Prince Adelchis of Benevento, leading to Charles the Bald of West Francia preparing his bid for the imperial title. Louis II had to be recrowned by Pope Adrian II shortly before the defense of Salerno to renew his claim to the title of Emperor of Rome. Another such wave of rumors in the case of the fall of Salerno in 872 might have very well led to an actual invasion of Italy by Louis II's uncle.

Yeah i forgot the Normandy and Normans were much later. And if the butterflies hit Francia...that will be fun in the Chinese sense.

The Whole Mediterranean would be very fun too, Sicily could be Muslim for a long time to forever depending the butterflies too, But the presence in Salerno is more interesting, a gradual powerbase and moving north?

It might be enough to at least completely boot out the Byzantines from what would be reorganized into the Theme of Longobardia for good, given their previous tenacious hold onto the ports of Calabria and Apulia, though I'm honestly not sure. We're speaking about the early years of the Macedonian restoration here and Basil I did try his best to come to good terms with the Carolingian emperor to stabilize and retake control over the Mediterranean.

Looking further into it, perhaps the success of the siege could allow for the marriage between Ermengard of Italy and Constantine, son of Basil I, to actually go through due to this renewed pressure and as a sign of goodwill despite previous failures, but that might also be arranged through more minor butterflies. A lot

 

[Nivek]

Another thing, IOTL rumors of Louis II's death spread north of the Alps even without the success of the siege of Salerno during the arrest of the imperial household by Prince Adelchis of Benevento, leading to Charles the Bald of West Francia preparing his bid for the imperial title. Louis II had to be recrowned by Pope Adrian II shortly before the defense of Salerno to renew his claim to the title of Emperor of Rome. Another such wave of rumors in the case of the fall of Salerno in 872 might have very well led to an actual invasion of Italy by Louis II's uncle.

in few words, more chaos, that will be fun, and as a people say, a perfect way to fish during an upstream.

It might be enough to at least completely boot out the Byzantines from what would be reorganized into the Theme of Longobardia for good, given their previous tenacious hold onto the ports of Calabria and Apulia, though I'm honestly not sure. We're speaking about the early years of the Macedonian restoration here and Basil I did try his best to come to good terms with the Carolingian emperor to stabilize and retake control over the Mediterranean.

I think that's the perfect chance to kick the ERE out of the south of the boot/longobardia and would be a big W for the Abbasaids too.

 

[Pneumic]

Another potential butterfly could be that Bishop Athanasius II of Naples doesn't launch or doesn't succeed in his coup against the pro-Aghlabid Duke Sergius II of Naples in 877 as the Arabs are now in a position to actually aid their de facto ally in the North, which in turn changes the course of the papacy of Pope John VIII and who gets to control the Lombard principality of Capua; overall, even outside of Calabria and Apulia, Italy as a whole would be definitely significantly different within a decade of the PoD.

I think that's the perfect chance to kick the ERE out of the south of the boot/longobardia and would be a big W for the Abbasaids too.

Perhaps, though the resources put into Italy at that time were not really in use along the Arab-Byzantine frontier region, an earlier loss of Byzantine presence in Italy might ironically strengthen the Byzantine focus on its other borders, though I'm not well-read on the military polices of Constantinople at that time.

 

[Nivek]

Perhaps, though the resources put into Italy at that time were not really in use along the Arab-Byzantine frontier region, an earlier loss of Byzantine presence in Italy might ironically strengthen the Byzantine focus on its other borders, though I'm not well-read on the military polices of Constantinople at that time.

But at the time both ERE and Abbasadid were into a stasis of just semi-ceremonial raids as the Abassadis focused more on the Iraq region and the MENA, ITTL if Italy is open for expansion, their effort will be there...is the Turks the one the ERE should worry about but if kick out of Italy early, they would focus on them far earlier too

 

[Pneumic]

But at the time both ERE and Abbasadid were into a stasis of just semi-ceremonial raids as the Abassadis focused more on the Iraq region and the MENA, ITTL if Italy is open for expansion, their effort will be there...is the Turks the one the ERE should worry about but if kick out of Italy early, they would focus on them far earlier too

The Abbasids at this point in history were falling apart along all seams, we have the ongoing Zanj Revolt threatening Baghdad and Ys'qub Ibn al-Layth as-Saffar marching into Iraq to put the caliphate under new management, Khawarij rising up left and right in al-Jazira... The raids across the frontier continued, to be sure, but the affairs of the Aghlabids in Africa and later Sicily were largely out of the control of Baghdad and didn't significantly impact policy in the Mediterranean or at home. They're at least not a cohesive force for the Byzantines to reckon with as far as I understood.