While there are many timelines about a successful Vinland, a few about China and the odd one about Mali discovering the Americas i have yet to see one involving all three of these scenarios happening at once. handwaving any ASB lets just say that the Ming dynasty was more ambitious and that there was increased investment in seafaring technology within west Africa leading up the Mali's fabled Atlantic voyage, and Vinland was simply more successful than OTL. What would be the effect of a successful Vinland along with Mail landing in the Americas in the 1300s and later China in the 1400s.
What if the Norse, China, and Mali all discovered America
- Thread starter Billy the Goat
- Start date
Well, no Columbus Day for One...The Funnier is how Chinese and Malian would capitalize on it. The bonus point is https://eu4.paradoxwikis.com/Kuba they got Cuba.
yeah chances are China and Mali would set up trading hubs before eventually spreading out once they notice that the diseases they carried over are doing numbers on the natives. with China expanding into californiora and Mali into brazil/the caribbeans with them both presumably trading with Mesoamerican nations like the Aztecs.So, I know its been awhile but given there's no warning I assume its OK to respond. This is a fun and interesting concept to say the least, though each one requires a lot of thought, especially regarding motives given the harrowing nature or simply cost of early expansion.
The Mali Empire is perhaps the easiest to make work, and in the thirteen hundred they were one of the largest empires in the world, and stupidly wealthy. Their relative lack of a navy does raise questions, but its not impossible to overcome, especially as by accounts they did at least seem to get as far as the Canary Current and cos we know smaller ships can make crazy long voyages if designed and used right, Especially as someone sailed a ship of Papyrus across the Atlantic to prove it was possible. Most seem to think it was led by Mansa Muhammad ibn Qu which seems reasonable enough. They would most likely land on what is now Venezuela or Guyana, though its possible they would reach mezzo America specifically.
Assuming the former, they'd likely encounter the Arawaks, Caribs, and Timoto-cuicas, who mostly lived as farmers at the time dealing in maize in the west and manioc in the east and also dabbled in oils and asphalts that seeped up through the ground for medicinal purposes, as an illumination source, and for the caulking of canoes. There's also some good islands for pearling in the area and I think all of these would catch the interest of the Mali to one degree or another, especially as corn can be brought home. The exact population of the local people is unknown but its estimate to maybe be 1 million, though how much political organization is... Sparsely covered.
Still, assuming initial violence is avoided, Qu could likely secure the rights to build a port with enough of a silver tongue and gifts, repair and fortify his ships and see about heading home, likely by passing by Mezzo America which could lead to another round of diplomacy. If they manage to catch the Gulf winds, they could very well make their way home on a rather round about trip, though avoiding discovering by Europe may be harder. It may be best for Qu to stay behind and send only a handful of ships back home to try and keep things at a low profile and avoid losing all his progress. A lot also depends on what consequences may have come from Vinland.
But for the time being, let's just say this could start a process of alliance making and colonization, Mansa Musa may not like it, but given he was so inclined to piss away gold and would still owe Qu some loyalty, compounded by the potential of maize would likely lead him to fund another expedition and it could grow from there. Mansa Musa may also deem it a convenient place to send dissidents or trouble makers that can't be easily sold as slaves, or otherwise to extract slaves from.
Now, only Vinland, this is hard because Vinland wasn't really a colony so much as a working station and the land was apparently getting harder to live on. With this in mind, I think you'd need a strong ideological reason to try and stick it out there, or otherwise move there permanently. However, there is one, namely that Christianization was taking place, so a charismatic worshipper of the Old Gods could potentially rally enough people and support to set sail for the distant island only about 120 people ever stayed on permanently to make a new homeland rather than risk persecution or irrelevance.
They'd likely be assumed lost at sea for a time, especially as their contemporizes on Greenland were already struggling and would not be sending ships after them. Assuming they make it they'd want to move to the Southern strip of the island to avoid the worst of the winters, some of the accounts (Semi mythologized) suggest they brought livestock, so they may well have brought bulls, pigs, or sheep and perhaps horses if they were lucky, but it'd be a tricky thing to make work, especially the last one.
But on the assumption it all goes reasonably well, they manage to maintain or begin nominally peaceful relations with the locals, likely the Beothuk and the Thule it'd be a hard bitten thing for the first generation or two given the harsh winters the like, but certainly survivable. I imagine it'd take some time before their influence, outside of disease, really spread much as they'd likely spend the first half century just trying to establish themselves, be it with farms, smiths, ships and the like.
Still, once things stabilize and with many things likely having bled over to their neighbors, there would likely be a small baby boom and they could start expanding on the island and exploring further South and beginning trade which would definitely have ripple effects. I think they'd be far from a dominant power, but that their cascading effects of their influence would grow over the course of the next couple of centuries as they integrate into the lands and among the people.
China now, China is flipping hard, like Mali people tended to come to them, but like, even more-so and even bigger. Still, if we're talking around the 1000's to 1300s then we have an advantage because the Yuan Dynasty did like to fuck around and find out, as shown with their naval expeditions against Japan. I'd probably utilize Kublai Khan myself, as he had very expansive interests from reaching out to Africa, to Siam, so wanting to see if there was anything of note to the East doesn't seem too improbable. Especially if someone managed to sell him on the idea.
If they found wholly unknown lands that'd probably intrigue him enough to want it investigated in further detail for commercial and tributary relationships potential. But like with many places it could also be deemed a useful locale to banish large swathes of trouble making people too under the pretense of expanding the empire. What's more the cold in the Northern Areas may not spook Kublai the way it might other leaders. I think it'd likely be fairly vestigial as an investment regardless of whom they meet given the distance, but that might change if someone ambitious enough to want to carve out their own fiefdom there gets put in charge and things just escalate.
Conclusion:
So yeah I think Mali would put in the biggest initial investment and likely be the first to start engaging with the mezzo American states, though likely not in any sufficient degree to try (& likely fail) at overthrowing them. What's more, despite being officially Muslim, the average citizen was very much usually not and even the ruling class did not observe many facets of Islam, for instance we know from that one tourist that he was scandalized to see how women could walk topless, even royalty and that friendships between men & women were deemed good practice ETC. Chances are, much of the population sent to colonize and trade would not even be Muslim so religious tensions would probably be fairly marginal.
Vinland would be less colonization and more integrations and dispersal, they'd be unlikely to have the numbers to pull off any major conquests and would be served better by collaborating. This would lead to a knock on effect with certain livestock being introduced, more naval exploration and trade via the Eastern Coast and iron working being introduced. Whatever Vinland forms or becomes a part of would likely be a very distinct state unto itself I am thinking.
Finally the Yuan would, unless someone got some very big ideas, likely view this Eastern land as more a curiosity than anything else, the side project of a side project. But again, get someone charismatic and charming enough with suitable ambition and it could go from "Oh that's interesting" to "Wait whose building a city where!?" that could easily go unexpected place.
As for local responses, I imagine the time involved in travel, investment, the lack of gun/cannons initially and a multitude of other factors would mean that even with diseases introduced the political instability would never reach the same degrees it did OTL. What's more the Spanish were stupidly, stupidly lucky in their ventures, such luck is not liable to happen here, especially given the drastically altered circumstances.
As a result, while Mali would likely build a respectably size Empire on the East Coast, they'd likely not take mezzo America or the Andes. Vinland would likely be one state among many rather than a hegemon. While the Yuan is less certain but still only have so much time and people. This means much of the lands that make up the modern USA would likely remain semi untouched at least for a good while and have already bounced back from some of the fallout of foreign diseases and begun adopting stuff like horses.
Those are just my theories.
The Mali Empire is perhaps the easiest to make work, and in the thirteen hundred they were one of the largest empires in the world, and stupidly wealthy. Their relative lack of a navy does raise questions, but its not impossible to overcome, especially as by accounts they did at least seem to get as far as the Canary Current and cos we know smaller ships can make crazy long voyages if designed and used right, Especially as someone sailed a ship of Papyrus across the Atlantic to prove it was possible. Most seem to think it was led by Mansa Muhammad ibn Qu which seems reasonable enough. They would most likely land on what is now Venezuela or Guyana, though its possible they would reach mezzo America specifically.
Assuming the former, they'd likely encounter the Arawaks, Caribs, and Timoto-cuicas, who mostly lived as farmers at the time dealing in maize in the west and manioc in the east and also dabbled in oils and asphalts that seeped up through the ground for medicinal purposes, as an illumination source, and for the caulking of canoes. There's also some good islands for pearling in the area and I think all of these would catch the interest of the Mali to one degree or another, especially as corn can be brought home. The exact population of the local people is unknown but its estimate to maybe be 1 million, though how much political organization is... Sparsely covered.
Still, assuming initial violence is avoided, Qu could likely secure the rights to build a port with enough of a silver tongue and gifts, repair and fortify his ships and see about heading home, likely by passing by Mezzo America which could lead to another round of diplomacy. If they manage to catch the Gulf winds, they could very well make their way home on a rather round about trip, though avoiding discovering by Europe may be harder. It may be best for Qu to stay behind and send only a handful of ships back home to try and keep things at a low profile and avoid losing all his progress. A lot also depends on what consequences may have come from Vinland.
But for the time being, let's just say this could start a process of alliance making and colonization, Mansa Musa may not like it, but given he was so inclined to piss away gold and would still owe Qu some loyalty, compounded by the potential of maize would likely lead him to fund another expedition and it could grow from there. Mansa Musa may also deem it a convenient place to send dissidents or trouble makers that can't be easily sold as slaves, or otherwise to extract slaves from.
Now, only Vinland, this is hard because Vinland wasn't really a colony so much as a working station and the land was apparently getting harder to live on. With this in mind, I think you'd need a strong ideological reason to try and stick it out there, or otherwise move there permanently. However, there is one, namely that Christianization was taking place, so a charismatic worshipper of the Old Gods could potentially rally enough people and support to set sail for the distant island only about 120 people ever stayed on permanently to make a new homeland rather than risk persecution or irrelevance.
They'd likely be assumed lost at sea for a time, especially as their contemporizes on Greenland were already struggling and would not be sending ships after them. Assuming they make it they'd want to move to the Southern strip of the island to avoid the worst of the winters, some of the accounts (Semi mythologized) suggest they brought livestock, so they may well have brought bulls, pigs, or sheep and perhaps horses if they were lucky, but it'd be a tricky thing to make work, especially the last one.
But on the assumption it all goes reasonably well, they manage to maintain or begin nominally peaceful relations with the locals, likely the Beothuk and the Thule it'd be a hard bitten thing for the first generation or two given the harsh winters the like, but certainly survivable. I imagine it'd take some time before their influence, outside of disease, really spread much as they'd likely spend the first half century just trying to establish themselves, be it with farms, smiths, ships and the like.
Still, once things stabilize and with many things likely having bled over to their neighbors, there would likely be a small baby boom and they could start expanding on the island and exploring further South and beginning trade which would definitely have ripple effects. I think they'd be far from a dominant power, but that their cascading effects of their influence would grow over the course of the next couple of centuries as they integrate into the lands and among the people.
China now, China is flipping hard, like Mali people tended to come to them, but like, even more-so and even bigger. Still, if we're talking around the 1000's to 1300s then we have an advantage because the Yuan Dynasty did like to fuck around and find out, as shown with their naval expeditions against Japan. I'd probably utilize Kublai Khan myself, as he had very expansive interests from reaching out to Africa, to Siam, so wanting to see if there was anything of note to the East doesn't seem too improbable. Especially if someone managed to sell him on the idea.
If they found wholly unknown lands that'd probably intrigue him enough to want it investigated in further detail for commercial and tributary relationships potential. But like with many places it could also be deemed a useful locale to banish large swathes of trouble making people too under the pretense of expanding the empire. What's more the cold in the Northern Areas may not spook Kublai the way it might other leaders. I think it'd likely be fairly vestigial as an investment regardless of whom they meet given the distance, but that might change if someone ambitious enough to want to carve out their own fiefdom there gets put in charge and things just escalate.
Conclusion:
So yeah I think Mali would put in the biggest initial investment and likely be the first to start engaging with the mezzo American states, though likely not in any sufficient degree to try (& likely fail) at overthrowing them. What's more, despite being officially Muslim, the average citizen was very much usually not and even the ruling class did not observe many facets of Islam, for instance we know from that one tourist that he was scandalized to see how women could walk topless, even royalty and that friendships between men & women were deemed good practice ETC. Chances are, much of the population sent to colonize and trade would not even be Muslim so religious tensions would probably be fairly marginal.
Vinland would be less colonization and more integrations and dispersal, they'd be unlikely to have the numbers to pull off any major conquests and would be served better by collaborating. This would lead to a knock on effect with certain livestock being introduced, more naval exploration and trade via the Eastern Coast and iron working being introduced. Whatever Vinland forms or becomes a part of would likely be a very distinct state unto itself I am thinking.
Finally the Yuan would, unless someone got some very big ideas, likely view this Eastern land as more a curiosity than anything else, the side project of a side project. But again, get someone charismatic and charming enough with suitable ambition and it could go from "Oh that's interesting" to "Wait whose building a city where!?" that could easily go unexpected place.
As for local responses, I imagine the time involved in travel, investment, the lack of gun/cannons initially and a multitude of other factors would mean that even with diseases introduced the political instability would never reach the same degrees it did OTL. What's more the Spanish were stupidly, stupidly lucky in their ventures, such luck is not liable to happen here, especially given the drastically altered circumstances.
As a result, while Mali would likely build a respectably size Empire on the East Coast, they'd likely not take mezzo America or the Andes. Vinland would likely be one state among many rather than a hegemon. While the Yuan is less certain but still only have so much time and people. This means much of the lands that make up the modern USA would likely remain semi untouched at least for a good while and have already bounced back from some of the fallout of foreign diseases and begun adopting stuff like horses.
Those are just my theories.
Thanks, I am glad you think so! Also yeah there's so many avenues it could o, from failing or petering out, to an explosion of cascading changes in population or from colonization's or anywhere in-between.
Some additional thoughts include:
Having seen more of the canary current the Malians would be using, I think they could avoid most of Europe on the return trip but may be spotted or engage with Portugal/Spain, but the latter is still dealing with plenty of internal issues.
But more to the point, both will soon be dealing with the Black Plague which barely impacted Mali. As a result, it'd be unlikely for Europe to be able to get involved for at a minimum, I'd say five decades, if that.
Especially given they'd need to figure out the truth, their own ships, a course and motive (Malians likely wouldn't be trading for gold) and then getting hit with the Plague & or recovering from it.
Its an interesting question, assuming Mansa Musa still does his "I am going to accidentally fuck up the economy of every country I pass through" Hajj, then people will know about Mali. Namely that its a mysterious, exotic, unbelievably wealthy empire from the South.
With that in mind, finding out that they also charted the Atlantic ocean in (Originally) fairly tiny ships, have begun building a Western Empire over there, made allies and trading partners with other regional powers and so on, well, it likely wouldn't be 'surprising' in the same way finding out China is huge would not be surprising.
It might however be quite nerve-wracking for some.
Most would know Mali as a Muslim empire, which as noted is not actually that accurate, or more, it was not so strenuously Islamic that it should stress out Europeans even if it would and I maintain my theory that given it'd mostly be the lower classes building up the Western settlements that side of the empire would likely be predominantly 'Pagan'.
All in all, lots of surprise this was possible/done, varying degrees of biblical concern and a sense of "Damn wish we had somehow done that" would likely be the prevailing takes, especially as this would mean New World gold is largely off the table as an easily exploitable resource not that anyone would have known that was even a possibility.
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Also was thinking more about Vinland and I very much do find it unlikely it could ever be founded long term by anyone except for those motivated by ideology over profit or political expansion. As noted the weather was harsh, the land was hard, neighbors could vary wildly in terms of friendliness, the journey could be hellish and for what?
Some trees, some iron, maybe some cool animal skins? (EDIT: Plus no sugarcane yet and it wouldn't grow around Vinland anyway so that's another motive off the table.)
That's a lot for stuff they could potentially find variants of at home. Mass colonization in the 'Americas' really only began in earnest because of Cortez's accursed stupid luck, without that the process would have been much slower.
So unless the people of Vinland stumbled ass backwards into a mountain of gold, there'd be significantly less motive to try and mass settle the place unless you had other reasons for wanting out of your old lands.
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The case for Vinland is akin to the economic logic of water being worth more than gold in a desert, since timber was rare in Iceland and practically non-existant in Greenland, especially timber suitable for building large knarrs. Iron for that matter too. The land itself was actually very nice, and even Markland was as good (or better) than any place the Norse lived in Greenland plus, you know, had trees.
The neighbours were quite bad, however, especially since Greenland itself would have plenty of problems with Inuit raids.
I see I see, that explains a great deal, that'd definitely provide more encouragement for the idea, though given the aforementioned issues in Greenland it might still e the sort of thing reserved for the wide eyed or desperate, but that might just be me. Regardless, that does radically shift the context of their investment there, thanks for the info!
I had definitely heard about issues in Greenland, Vinland seemed a bit more vague outside of like, the sagas which I view as mythologized to the point of only being vaguely useful. I doubt a ton of warriors were scared away by a woman slapping a sword against her breast for example, as gutsy as such a move would be.
Regardless, thanks a ton for the info!
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I was thinking more about Mali, both in isolation for a separate idea and here and had some additional thoughts:
During Mansa Musa's reign I maintain that this would be mostly a side project, he's obliged to keep it funded it has its uses but he's far more invested in the Islamic world and making Mai more Muslim/scholarly. His son didn't reign for long but was even more reckless with his money for the for years he lived and might throw money behind the colonial efforts more but as noted, not super competent.
Mansa Suleyaman however is very interesting as he needed to be a lot more careful with money, he's dealing with fallout from the Black Plague impacting trade his brother and nephews obscene spending and is trying to project stability in the empire. But, rather than make him less invested in the West this might make him more-so. Mostly because even ignoring the potential gold imports and the boon of maize, overseas trade both with the West but also heading North would appeal to him because it would make the empire less dependent on the Amasingh, as well as powerful states like Gao that are only loyal through force of arms and are over all richer than the Mali capital thanks to their position. Thus, I could see him investing in naval trade for his projects over what he historically did, in order to expedite oceanic trade and weaken the Eastern Block. Though this could obviously lead to war/rebellions, still, it could be a very practical investment.
So, having done some more research on this front, thanks again for these insights, I have a revised take on the Norse situation. Now some of this may be my pro pagan agenda at work so feel free to call me on it but:
982:
Erik the Red still explored the Greenland coast, but was unsure if people would be willing to move there even if he gave it a good name and as he was functionally banished, he decided to stick it out and keep searching on the assumption if this land existed, others must too. Thus he did eventually stumble on Vinland, which was over all much easier to live on, much richer in resources and so he decided it would be ideal for his ambitions.
He had an exchange or two with the intrigued but wary Beothuk people, but trading away some spare weapons and acting more like a lost sailor than a man planning a settlement let him get on reasonably well with them. Enough so that he and his crew were able to repair their ship and even managed to coax a local into joining their voyage to see more of the world and to bring back gifts to their band.
(It might be optimistic for them to survive given potential sickness, not sure)
986:
Returning home, his exile complete, Erik set about seeking others for his quest showing off his repaired ship, samples of beast and log, as well as his travelling companion who was equal parts intrigued and wary of his new travelling partners ambitions. The prospect of wealthy lands was of great interest to several beyond Erik's own family, it was a motley lot with several Christians, including Erik's own wife and son, but as the man himself was a devout worshipper of the old gods his own company was more reflective of that and so their numbers did outstrip the Christians on the returning voyage.
Thirty two ships would leave Iceland and set sail, bringing with them several sheep and goats, as well as tools of trade an war, to mine and build a new home for themselves where they could claim lands and prestige. Along the way thirteen of those ships would sink beneath the icy depths. Despite the treacherous journey they would arrive in Vinland, landing in a suitably impressive bay along the Northern stretch of land. After a small and somewhat exhausted celebration, work and exploration would quickly begin, creating pens for the livestock and charting out ideal places for key structures.
The Beothuk would return and blood would almost be shed, but Erik's companion would still his compatriots hands with gifts and words, carefully insisted that this was merely a trading spot. In truth he was somewhat concerned about his bands chances to combat the Norse, even victory which was possible, would potentially leave them broken beyond measure. Some part of him was also, perhaps, nursing ambition to take on some of the traits in Norse society he felt were useful, so much so, that he had even added the Norse gods to their own religious rites, though not at the expense of their older beliefs.
987:
Initial tensions abated and tolls traded for aid in hunting, scouting and furs, the settlement would begin to stabilize, if with some harsh early months. The Northern Beothuk, while ambivalent at best regarding the damage done to the forests, were netting fine profits in iron tools and the like which were proving useful against man and beast alike. Some tension was further eased by the fraught nature of return voyages, it would be several years before Vinland was profitable enough to conceive of trading with home and given how many died returning home, many felt doing so may not be for the best.
Tensions were not absent however, within the settlement, Christians and 'Pagans' were often times at odds, especially with the formers insistence on spending precious resources on a Church. Christians efforts to convert the Beothuk were also not helping matters in some people's eyes, though the Beothuk mostly found the preaching an odd quirk, though the actions of travelling preachers would serve to agitate for entirely different reasons. The real external tension came from the onset of sickness, with several Beothuk who had taken up residence in the settlement long term falling ill and several dying and a similar fate befalling many of their fellows.
While these illnesses were not as extensive or varied as those that might have come in another time and place, they were still brutal and had spread beyond the expanding settlements of the Norse thanks to trade, travel and even conflict with or among the local population. Many took the illnesses as maliciously spread, leading to many-a stand offs and raids in the deeper woods and even attacks on the core Vinland settlement and their allies. Neither faction could be said to have the numbers or inclination for mass combat, so this state of ongoing skirmishing and raids would persist for sometime, though sickness, key alliances and iron would eventually win the Norse the island.
1007
At the age of fifty seven, Erik the Red would fall ill and pass on, he would be be offered full honors as the father f Vinland and a loyal adherent of the Old Gods, who had ultimately come to prevail in the cultural clash of Vinland with only a few Christians lingering in the background. He would be survived by his daughter Freydís who would remain a respected figure in Vinland politics for the rest of her days, as well as his sons, Thorvald and Thorstein. Tragically, his most adventurous son Leif Erikson perished at sea trying to chart a way home to bring more settlers. With the island well in hand, the people of Vinland now comfortable chart the waters around them for trade, thralls and tribute.
NOTES:
Not sure if some successful voyages home should happen or if they should bring horses or not.
Also if i was writing a story I'd naturally try and characterize everyone more, but this is just a general outline, thoughts?
Slight realization, but the Mali in particular would see a massive population boom thanks to the introduction of potato and maze, in our own worlds, scholars have tied a 25–26 percent of the increase in total population and 27–34 percent of the increase in urbanization to the introduction of potatoes alone, let alone maze, guano and farming strategies.
Potatoes would likely be far less important than cassava since cassava is tolerant to the drought-prone climate of the Sahel and has been quite an important crop OTL for many centuries. It was also among the staple crops of Brazil's natives as opposed to potatoes which were unknown.
Fair point there, yeah apparently maize and cassava are huge staple crops in a lot of areas of Africa now so that makes sense.
A spin on this concept might end up becoming the best case scenario for Native Americans as a whole: every would-be colonizer of the continent (Norse and Malians from the west, Chinese and Polynesians from the east, and so on) reaches it, without being able to establish actual colonies: those die out fairly quickly, but the colonists still manage to exchange some of their animals, technology and viruses with the peoples they interact with, before being subsumed into those, or just dying out.
By the time the Americas are "discovered" once and for all, most of the continent's peoples are more or less protected from Eurasian diseases, have had access to horses and other useful animals since at least a few centuries prior, while ironworking and literacy are far more widespread; not to mention how the local cultures would preserve faint echoes of Confucianism or Islam that might end up making Eurasian chroniclers' heads explode.
By the time the Americas are "discovered" once and for all, most of the continent's peoples are more or less protected from Eurasian diseases, have had access to horses and other useful animals since at least a few centuries prior, while ironworking and literacy are far more widespread; not to mention how the local cultures would preserve faint echoes of Confucianism or Islam that might end up making Eurasian chroniclers' heads explode.