What if the Goths ended up in OTL New Zealand?

Kolibri8

This has been in my mind for quite a while and I wanted this to be discussed. The fact that New Zealand was not settled by any humans until around 1280, makes it an already interesting spot for an AH, and I also have quite some linking for the Goths, so I figured, why not combine both?

I know it might be improbable but not impossible.

To start I had something like this in mind with a PoD arount 375 when the Huns invaded Eastern Europe.

  • Instead of only the Thervingi/Visigoths crossing the Danube into Moesia, they are acompanied by the Greuthungi/Ostrogoths and the Gepids.
    • According to my history Prof each of the migrating Gentes of this time had around 100k people on average with the Lombards beeing the largest group with 150k (all including women, children and elderly people).
    • Alltogether the Goths (Visigoths, Ostrogoths and Gepids) should/could have up to 300k people.
  • Emperor Valens figures it would be impossible to supply 300k new settlers in Moesia and decides to ship them to Egypt instead and settle them there at the Suez isthmus as foederati.
  • Some years later in 380/390 (what would be realistic?) after all Goths have arrived in Egypt and have become Arian Christians by this point, their leading Bishop suffers a heat stroke. The Bishop (lets just assume it's Wulfila) recovers and claims he had a vision from God, who told him to leave Egypt and search for new Land across the sea (maybe ASB, maybe it has something to do with Wulfila reading the Exodus before his stroke, who knows?).
  • Anyway Wulfila is succesfull in convincing the majority of the Goths to sail the seas and search for unoccupied Land. The Goths start to migrate again and move south to the roman red sea ports and capture a large enough fleet of Trading Ships, on their way they've raided a wee bit and captured livestock, supplies, seeds and seed stocks. Also, as with other migrations, some people decide to stay, while other people like (former/free) slaves join the goths. Then the goths disappear from western history - for now.
  • An apropriate amount of time later the gothic fleet appears in India, trading and occasionally raiding, when possible or necessary. In Southern India the gothic clergy and nobility visits the grave of Saint Thomas and prays for further directions.
  • Again later the gothic fleet passes the Indonesian Islands. Following rumors of Islands in the south east, inhabited by strange Birds, the finally find OTL New Zealand.
So let's assume for the sake of this thread all of the above happens in this or a similar way. At this point there are some important questions to be asked:

  • What happens in Europe next, after the goths disappeared? Will the roles the goths played OTL be filled by other peoples/gentes? Will Islam still rise, or is Mohammed butterflied away? I'd assume if Islam still happens, Europe up to the 6th or 7th century wouldn't look all that different. Lombards would still end up in Italy, Angles, Saxons, Jutes, etc. would still go to Britain, the Franks would dominate Gaul, and Muslims would have conquered all of northern Africa and most of Iberia. Instead of Gothic Influences the Spaniards would have vandalic and alan influences.
  • How far could the Goths expand in and around New Zealand? North, South and Steward Island are given, but what about Norfolk and Chatham island? What about the subantarctic Islands of OTL Australia and NZL (Antipodes Islands, Auckland Islands etc.)? Would "Colonies" in Australia be feasible at one point?
  • What about the Maori? When finally Polynesians appear in NZL, would it lead to War or would they be integrated into Gothic Culture?
  • How would the Goths organize? One Kingdom? Some kind of tribal Confederation? Or a bunch of Petty Kingdoms?
  • How would Gothic Culture and Gothic-Arian-Christianity develop?
  • And lastly, how would a first Contact with other Europeans play out?
 
LSCatilina

LSCatilina

I don't think this is remotely plausible, to be honest.
The problem is less, for Romans, than settling Goths (300 000 men is probably too important of an estimation, maybe 10% of it might be realistic enough*) in a suppliable land than to protect Moesian border against possible other groups and make it productive enough trough Barbarian workforce. Putting them in Egypt where there was no real strategical threat would be probably putting one in the form of a bored Gothic settlement more than ready to plunder and takeover Egypt in term.

You can consider that Barbarians maybe consisted of 5% compared of the whole Roman population of the era. It's impossible to really tell how many each people got, but telling there were 100 000 of each Barbarian people is...well, misguided (especially since some represented large enough confederations, some sub-branches acting on their own, etc.). But 300 000 Goths is unbelievable, even if they somehow integrated all of provincial population.
Let's remember that Barbarians managed to form a main cultural identity in Romania because they were the ones getting absorbed by Roman population, demographically and culturally.

For instance, Victor of Vita mentions 80 000 Vandals in the Vth century counting everyone up to children, slaves and old men, while Vandals amassed a lot of people since entering Romania (Barbarians such as Alans, but also Romans), and becoming one of the main groups of the era.
Procopius, in turn, mentions 50 000 men.
Thinking that Gepids alone could have represented more than this strikes me as a miscalculation at best of Barbarian forces.
 
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GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Kolibri8 said:
  • What about the Maori? When finally Polynesians appear in NZL, would it lead to War or would they be integrated into Gothic Culture?
Click to expand...
Let's say some of both trade and war, and optimistically we'll say more on the trade side.

And since NZ wasn't peopled till 1280 CE, I love the aspect that we can have colonization without wiping out existing people, not even by disease.
 
Remitonov

Remitonov

I mean... it can be done. It's just that it would take so damn long to get to the point where Goths would colonize New Zealand that the world would be unrecognizable. Just getting to New Zealand would require oceanographic know-how that's only accessible to the Austronesians at the time. And then there's the distance, which would either mean going around the Cape of Good Hope or cutting through Roman Egypt via the Sinai (Suez canal isn't exactly a thing until the last couple of centuries. You can't do this without ample supplies, ample will, ample knowledge and a severe lack of quality land within your vicinity.

In effect, to find out the immediate effects of Migration Era Goths on New Zealand would require ASB. Otherwise, doing this plausibly takes centuries of human development that would have changed the Goths considerably as a people, not unlike the people who did colonize New Zealand after the Maori.
 
CHKeeley

CHKeeley

Even if you hurdle through all the implausible things like even getting the Goths in their entirety to all settle in the Sinai (allowing massive groups of barbarians to settle all together within the empire is a big no no anyway), you still have the problem that New Zealand is an extremely far distance and there is no incentive to reach it. Sailing down the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean, why wouldn’t the Goths simply settle on Sri Lanka, or the Indies, or even Australia?

The idea that they’d keep pushing on through the ocean to reach an island so far out of the way that they don’t even know exists is pretty implausible ignoring all the rest of the scenario. I think the idea is actually pretty interesting and unique, but it’s more suited to an ISOT scenario than a plausible AH.
 
JonasResende

JonasResende

Pischinovski said:
Thousands of people do not simply hop on ships because some bishop had a strange vision.
Click to expand...

According to the medieval folklore, there was an island of seven cities populated by seven bishops who had removed the inhabitants of their dioceses by ship to this island to escape approachinh Muslim/Vandal/ICR whose arny
 
Vuu

Vuu

Banned
Way too distant. If they ACTUALLY did that, then basically they'd acquire a naval tradition on par with the Austronesians, but with more advanced societies. The entire Pacific just got naenaed and good chunk of Asia is oof'd too.

I mean it's plausible, but it's basically travelling from Paris to London via Vladivostok and Punta Arenas
 
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