What if the Franco-British union happened?

[U.K overseas Enthusiast]

what if France and britain united after the suez crisis?

the point of divergence is 7/11/1956
(day/month/year)

after the Suez crisis lead to France and Britain becoming isolated, the rejected WW2 proposal is put back into the public consciousness.
after losing Egypt as a colony, large protests in France and Britain advocating for the union.

after intense pressure from the public many leftist party's in both france and Brittan such as the liberal democrats and french workers party begin advocating for the union giving the proposal governmental legitimacy.
Some politicians began to propose less extreme measures to keep their empires such as some limited cooperation with the other country but this doesn't gain much support.
eventually, two seperate referendums are carried out:

France vote:
pro-union: 56%
anti-union: 31%
limited cooperation: 13%

Britain vote:
pro-union: 65%
anti-union: 12%
limited cooperation: 23%

eventually the union is brought into effect, the two governments are brought into one.
the head of states extend to the other member of the union, meaning france has a king and Britain a president.
However, there is one hurdle to the union, a country that is anti-imperialist and would vehemently oppose the union.

The United States of America.

due to financial pressure from the US, the new superpower must give up some colonies and make some concessions to gain american support.
India
South indochina
Sudan
Nigeria
Niger
and Chad
are all forced to be given up by the U.S




the year is 1979:

Anti american sentiment grows as the US & USSR are becoming very unstable.
most of europe threw in their support with Franco-Britain years ago leading the US and USSR to be isolated.
vietnam is never communist as the union still controls it.
propaganda is spread in the US about the government bungling home policy, the Angolan civil war and the US intervention lead to failure after failure, causing millions of deaths for the americans until the Franco-British intervened through south africa.
new england vias for independence and to join canada/Franco-Britain.
texas seeks further autonomy.
the pacific states fall into sino-soviet influence.
new mexico and arizona seek to join Mexico due to heavy mexican migration.

In the USSR many revolts break out in the baltics, Ukraine and the turkic states.

Both the US and USSR are in imminent collapse.



the year is 1987:

the USSR and USA collapsed years ago leading to the EU, china, and Franco-britain being the sole superpowers.
many independent states now exist from the US and USSR, balkanising both regions, Franco Brittan taking parts of new england and the EU taking parts of the USSR.
Russia is a shadow of its former self, a frozen husk instead of a superpower.

the US not being much better, the west coast left, along with new england and texas.
new mexico and arizona joined mexico due to having a High mexican population.
many zones of influence exist, all over, the world is now increasingly multipolar, no one superpower being greater than any other, always being in deadlock.

the americans may be dead, but imperialism, lives on!




but what do you think?
possible?
imposible?
post in the comments below!

 

[DougM]

You have so many all but impossible points of departure here that i am mot sure i could keep track of them all.

 

[Insane Ranter]

This thread might be better in ASB?

 

[Comte de Geneve]

I am aware of the proposals for a Franco-British union in 1940 as a desperation move to prevent the capitulation of France. Even then I doubt it had more purchase then within the always feverish mind of Winnie and a few desperate French politicians. There is no way such a union would have any footing after Suez, when finger pointing would be more prevalent than handshakes. Given the POD this is ASB.

 

[DougM]

I am aware of the proposals for a Franco-British union in 1940 as a desperation move to prevent the capitulation of France. Even then I doubt it had more purchase then within the always feverish mind of Winnie and a few desperate French politicians. There is no way such a union would have any footing after Suez, when finger pointing would be more prevalent than handshakes. Given the POD this is ASB.

Dont forget the OP has both the USSR and the US collapse (for no apparent reason) and somehow the US splits and part joins Briton… This is so far into ASB that the ASB forum may not want it….

 

[CalBear]

Dont forget the OP has both the USSR and the US collapse (for no apparent reason) and somehow the US splits and part joins Briton… This is so far into ASB that the ASB forum may not want it….

If you think a thread is in the wrong Forum, report it. Don't snipe at the author.

I would take this opportunity to remind everyone that implausible =/= ASB. Often it is simply insufficiently researched.

 

[DougM]

I am confused , if you wish to call me out for “pileing on” the OP then I will cop to it. And apologize to the OP for doing so. And I will admit that perhaps this should have been referred to someone to be moved. However doing so without explaining to the OP why it is considered ASB is probably pretty confusing to the OP. But if I am understanding your post this would not have been moved as it is not trully ASB. “improbable =/=ASB”
But if this does not count as ASB then I am really confused as to what does

Is there someplace we can find a definition of ASB/impossible? I ask because I am truly confused. There is very very very little that is truly Impossible. Even the Aliens from the term Alien Space Bat are not really impossible. There is no reason currently known that proves that Aliens don’t exist nor is it impossible for Aliens to travel the years/decades/centuries needed to voyage between the stars. So they COULD arrive at any point.
Alternatively it is not impossible that someone like Hitler or Stalin should wake up after a night of nightmares with a changed view on life. It is exteamly unlikely but not impossible. People have had radical changes in personality from various causes.
Heck even things we regularly consider impossible on this forum are not truly impossible just highly improbable. Things like Japan winning WW2 or Germany defeating the USSR or even certain sea mammal. If England did enough stupid things and Germany got lucky enough.

I will try to do this from memory…
So if the improbable POD gets first a Union between France and England ,
then that somehow leads to the US getting into a different war then what happened in OTL.
This war thdn goes so bad that it makes Vietnam and Korea look like a small hiccup with negligible casualties.
Then the Union of France and Great Britain somehow steps in and manages to affect the outcome where the US was not able to.
At some point in this Europe decides that the economy of the US is unimportant to them so they start supporting the Union of France and GB.
Then as a result of all this the USSR falls apart (apparently ahead of schedule)
And for some reason these changes also result in not just an economic implosion in the US but the US actually explodes into protests that overthrow the government and then part of the US (and part of the original revolution against England a few hundred years earlier) not only breaks away from the US but Joins with Canada which has at some point became more firmly part of the Unified France and Great Briton Then it was of GB in OTL.
And all of this explained in a couple paragraphs.

Technically NONE of this is impossible, but all of it is so individually improbable that I can’t even give any one part odds, and when added together is even more unlikely.

So I am TRULY confused with what is considered ASB.

.

 

[Insane Ranter]

I am confused , if you wish to call me out for “pileing on” the OP then I will cop to it. And apologize to the OP for doing so. And I will admit that perhaps this should have been referred to someone to be moved. However doing so without explaining to the OP why it is considered ASB is probably pretty confusing to the OP. But if I am understanding your post this would not have been moved as it is not trully ASB. “improbable =/=ASB”
But if this does not count as ASB then I am really confused as to what does

Is there someplace we can find a definition of ASB/impossible? I ask because I am truly confused. There is very very very little that is truly Impossible. Even the Aliens from the term Alien Space Bat are not really impossible. There is no reason currently known that proves that Aliens don’t exist nor is it impossible for Aliens to travel the years/decades/centuries needed to voyage between the stars. So they COULD arrive at any point.
Alternatively it is not impossible that someone like Hitler or Stalin should wake up after a night of nightmares with a changed view on life. It is exteamly unlikely but not impossible. People have had radical changes in personality from various causes.
Heck even things we regularly consider impossible on this forum are not truly impossible just highly improbable. Things like Japan winning WW2 or Germany defeating the USSR or even certain sea mammal. If England did enough stupid things and Germany got lucky enough.

I will try to do this from memory…
So if the improbable POD gets first a Union between France and England ,
then that somehow leads to the US getting into a different war then what happened in OTL.
This war thdn goes so bad that it makes Vietnam and Korea look like a small hiccup with negligible casualties.
Then the Union of France and Great Britain somehow steps in and manages to affect the outcome where the US was not able to.
At some point in this Europe decides that the economy of the US is unimportant to them so they start supporting the Union of France and GB.
Then as a result of all this the USSR falls apart (apparently ahead of schedule)
And for some reason these changes also result in not just an economic implosion in the US but the US actually explodes into protests that overthrow the government and then part of the US (and part of the original revolution against England a few hundred years earlier) not only breaks away from the US but Joins with Canada which has at some point became more firmly part of the Unified France and Great Briton Then it was of GB in OTL.
And all of this explained in a couple paragraphs.

Technically NONE of this is impossible, but all of it is so individually improbable that I can’t even give any one part odds, and when added together is even more unlikely.

So I am TRULY confused with what is considered ASB.

.

I should have simply reported as well. Apologies OP!

The Union between France and Britain - If French Prime Minister Guy Mollet supposedly entertained both France joining the commonwealth or Britain joining France with the Queen as the Queen. The UK Prime Minister Anthony Eden supposed to reject both ideas. There is debate I think on if this was even made official or not. There was something about it being brought up in the 2000s with a former high level French leader saying that Mollet would have been tried for treason if it had been official.

What needs to be changed for this to work is making the French and British feel like they need to shove off their own nationalism that if they do not merge they will no longer exist. In reality both are still major players in the world in 1956. The only real perceived threat in Europe is the USSR. France of course signed the Treaty of Rome creating the ECC. We have to have France somehow feel threatened or feel that this is not going to happen or they are better off with Britain than forming ultimately the EEC with Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and West Germany. Granted this is not to say that the ECC does not get formed with France but the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community 6 years prior between France and Germany already has laid the foundation for the ECC. Honestly it gets all a bit complicated from the end of World War 2 to Suez. You have this dynamic of making Western Europe strong enough to oppose the USSR but not too strong to be threatened by it. The tradition France-Germany-Britain triangle of King of the Hill power struggle then thrown in the USA mucking around in everyone's business. With all of these factors and a great deal more thrown in I still feel like the nationalism of France and Britain at the time would get the same response that a Union between Canada and the United States would and that is "We like each other enough to be neighbors but we do not like each other enough to share the same house." or We just fought a war 10 years ago to free the world from the Germans and you want to take away our country again? For me at least there is too much going on for this to happen unless someone waves a wand to make a great deal of things change for it to happen over the Suez.

The part about protests over loosing Egypt falls under the Calbear's not researched. Britain technically loss Egypt in ~1923 and retained the Suez.
I do not recall ever hearing or reading much outcry and not enough to to cause people in Britain to want to make the Queen/King a commoner head of state with Union to France.

Now France joining the Commonwealth might be a possibility. I'll stop here. Everything seems to hinge on the France-Britain Union.

 

[Enigmajones]

From what I know the Franco-British Union will only come into existence after the Fall of France. Instead of forming the Franco-British Union, the French government splintered into Vichy and Free France. If the French government had agreed the FBU would have come into existence from 1940-1945.

 

[Evil Crusader]

I am confused , if you wish to call me out for “pileing on” the OP then I will cop to it. And apologize to the OP for doing so. And I will admit that perhaps this should have been referred to someone to be moved. However doing so without explaining to the OP why it is considered ASB is probably pretty confusing to the OP. But if I am understanding your post this would not have been moved as it is not trully ASB. “improbable =/=ASB”
But if this does not count as ASB then I am really confused as to what does

Is there someplace we can find a definition of ASB/impossible? I ask because I am truly confused. There is very very very little that is truly Impossible. Even the Aliens from the term Alien Space Bat are not really impossible. There is no reason currently known that proves that Aliens don’t exist nor is it impossible for Aliens to travel the years/decades/centuries needed to voyage between the stars. So they COULD arrive at any point.
Alternatively it is not impossible that someone like Hitler or Stalin should wake up after a night of nightmares with a changed view on life. It is exteamly unlikely but not impossible. People have had radical changes in personality from various causes.
Heck even things we regularly consider impossible on this forum are not truly impossible just highly improbable. Things like Japan winning WW2 or Germany defeating the USSR or even certain sea mammal. If England did enough stupid things and Germany got lucky enough.

I will try to do this from memory…
So if the improbable POD gets first a Union between France and England ,
then that somehow leads to the US getting into a different war then what happened in OTL.
This war thdn goes so bad that it makes Vietnam and Korea look like a small hiccup with negligible casualties.
Then the Union of France and Great Britain somehow steps in and manages to affect the outcome where the US was not able to.
At some point in this Europe decides that the economy of the US is unimportant to them so they start supporting the Union of France and GB.
Then as a result of all this the USSR falls apart (apparently ahead of schedule)
And for some reason these changes also result in not just an economic implosion in the US but the US actually explodes into protests that overthrow the government and then part of the US (and part of the original revolution against England a few hundred years earlier) not only breaks away from the US but Joins with Canada which has at some point became more firmly part of the Unified France and Great Briton Then it was of GB in OTL.
And all of this explained in a couple paragraphs.

Technically NONE of this is impossible, but all of it is so individually improbable that I can’t even give any one part odds, and when added together is even more unlikely.

So I am TRULY confused with what is considered ASB.

Luckily, ASB Board has that definition.

To expound, I believe there's four flavors of implausibility floating around here, so to speak: naivety, theleology, wank, and ASB.
Naivety is OP: the frankly a bit clueless simplification of a complex situation that, in this case, led them to believe that a proposal that wasn't really entertained during a pretty extreme situation could be done under much stabler 1953 circumstances. It's part bad research, part pure enthusiasm.
Theleology is closely related, and OP has some too: the commitment to achieving a certain narrative goal even when it clearly cannot fit historical trends as of the POD, leading to a lot of gymnastics to reach it. There is research, but it's cherry-picked; it's often fairly plausible, but only with major starting changes.
Wank (and by extension screw) I consider different because there also are clear winners and losers to be realized, so there's a whole narrative dedicated to reaching it. At that point, research can be pretty deep, even mostly accurate, but the intention is kinda away from talking about AH and more about using AH to play favorites.
Lastly, bona fide ASB is when stuff literally hinges on magic or aliens, so that's probably when it's accurate to call it out as such.

 

[tophatgaming]

So here's my idea, if the Franco-British union did happen, then I could see the war in Europe ending a year earlier, with the west capturing berlin, I could see 1945 a year of the Japanese stubbornly refusing to surrender until the soviets invade Manchuria, it's possible this leads to all of Korea unified under communist rule. I could see the union dissolved post-war for several reasons, though perhaps France would create something equivalent to the European coal and steel community with Britain instead of Germany, I wonder how all of this would affect (effect?) decolonisation.

 

[RanulfC]

There are several "What-if" threads on the effects of a Franco-British Union at various times and somewhere there's an actual "alt-history" Franco-British union thread which I can't seem to find. (Loved the "Top Gear" post) but in effect the premise of the entire idea was a one-time-thing predicated on the situation in 1940 and unlikely to be viable at any other point.

Randy

 

[U.K overseas Enthusiast]

I didn't

You have so many all but impossible points of departure here that i am mot sure i could keep track of them all.

Dont forget the OP has both the USSR and the US collapse (for no apparent reason) and somehow the US splits and part joins Briton… This is so far into ASB that the ASB forum may not want it….

If you think a thread is in the wrong Forum, report it. Don't snipe at the author.

I would take this opportunity to remind everyone that implausible =/= ASB. Often it is simply insufficiently researched.

I am confused , if you wish to call me out for “pileing on” the OP then I will cop to it. And apologize to the OP for doing so. And I will admit that perhaps this should have been referred to someone to be moved. However doing so without explaining to the OP why it is considered ASB is probably pretty confusing to the OP. But if I am understanding your post this would not have been moved as it is not trully ASB. “improbable =/=ASB”
But if this does not count as ASB then I am really confused as to what does

Is there someplace we can find a definition of ASB/impossible? I ask because I am truly confused. There is very very very little that is truly Impossible. Even the Aliens from the term Alien Space Bat are not really impossible. There is no reason currently known that proves that Aliens don’t exist nor is it impossible for Aliens to travel the years/decades/centuries needed to voyage between the stars. So they COULD arrive at any point.
Alternatively it is not impossible that someone like Hitler or Stalin should wake up after a night of nightmares with a changed view on life. It is exteamly unlikely but not impossible. People have had radical changes in personality from various causes.
Heck even things we regularly consider impossible on this forum are not truly impossible just highly improbable. Things like Japan winning WW2 or Germany defeating the USSR or even certain sea mammal. If England did enough stupid things and Germany got lucky enough.

I will try to do this from memory…
So if the improbable POD gets first a Union between France and England ,
then that somehow leads to the US getting into a different war then what happened in OTL.
This war thdn goes so bad that it makes Vietnam and Korea look like a small hiccup with negligible casualties.
Then the Union of France and Great Britain somehow steps in and manages to affect the outcome where the US was not able to.
At some point in this Europe decides that the economy of the US is unimportant to them so they start supporting the Union of France and GB.
Then as a result of all this the USSR falls apart (apparently ahead of schedule)
And for some reason these changes also result in not just an economic implosion in the US but the US actually explodes into protests that overthrow the government and then part of the US (and part of the original revolution against England a few hundred years earlier) not only breaks away from the US but Joins with Canada which has at some point became more firmly part of the Unified France and Great Briton Then it was of GB in OTL.
And all of this explained in a couple paragraphs.

Technically NONE of this is impossible, but all of it is so individually improbable that I can’t even give any one part odds, and when added together is even more unlikely.

So I am TRULY confused with what is considered ASB.

.

Luckily, ASB Board has that definition.

To expound, I believe there's four flavors of implausibility floating around here, so to speak: naivety, theleology, wank, and ASB.
Naivety is OP: the frankly a bit clueless simplification of a complex situation that, in this case, led them to believe that a proposal that wasn't really entertained during a pretty extreme situation could be done under much stabler 1953 circumstances. It's part bad research, part pure enthusiasm.
Theleology is closely related, and OP has some too: the commitment to achieving a certain narrative goal even when it clearly cannot fit historical trends as of the POD, leading to a lot of gymnastics to reach it. There is research, but it's cherry-picked; it's often fairly plausible, but only with major starting changes.
Wank (and by extension screw) I consider different because there also are clear winners and losers to be realized, so there's a whole narrative dedicated to reaching it. At that point, research can be pretty deep, even mostly accurate, but the intention is kinda away from talking about AH and more about using AH to play favorites.
Lastly, bona fide ASB is when stuff literally hinges on magic or aliens, so that's probably when it's accurate to call it out as such.

think people would be so critical

 

[RedSword12]

I am confused , if you wish to call me out for “pileing on” the OP then I will cop to it. And apologize to the OP for doing so. And I will admit that perhaps this should have been referred to someone to be moved. However doing so without explaining to the OP why it is considered ASB is probably pretty confusing to the OP. But if I am understanding your post this would not have been moved as it is not trully ASB. “improbable =/=ASB”
But if this does not count as ASB then I am really confused as to what does

Is there someplace we can find a definition of ASB/impossible? I ask because I am truly confused. There is very very very little that is truly Impossible. Even the Aliens from the term Alien Space Bat are not really impossible. There is no reason currently known that proves that Aliens don’t exist nor is it impossible for Aliens to travel the years/decades/centuries needed to voyage between the stars. So they COULD arrive at any point.
Alternatively it is not impossible that someone like Hitler or Stalin should wake up after a night of nightmares with a changed view on life. It is exteamly unlikely but not impossible. People have had radical changes in personality from various causes.
Heck even things we regularly consider impossible on this forum are not truly impossible just highly improbable. Things like Japan winning WW2 or Germany defeating the USSR or even certain sea mammal. If England did enough stupid things and Germany got lucky enough.

I will try to do this from memory…
So if the improbable POD gets first a Union between France and England ,
then that somehow leads to the US getting into a different war then what happened in OTL.
This war thdn goes so bad that it makes Vietnam and Korea look like a small hiccup with negligible casualties.
Then the Union of France and Great Britain somehow steps in and manages to affect the outcome where the US was not able to.
At some point in this Europe decides that the economy of the US is unimportant to them so they start supporting the Union of France and GB.
Then as a result of all this the USSR falls apart (apparently ahead of schedule)
And for some reason these changes also result in not just an economic implosion in the US but the US actually explodes into protests that overthrow the government and then part of the US (and part of the original revolution against England a few hundred years earlier) not only breaks away from the US but Joins with Canada which has at some point became more firmly part of the Unified France and Great Briton Then it was of GB in OTL.
And all of this explained in a couple paragraphs.

Technically NONE of this is impossible, but all of it is so individually improbable that I can’t even give any one part odds, and when added together is even more unlikely.

So I am TRULY confused with what is considered ASB.

.

In general, ASB is a shortcut to the discussion the OP wants, to avoid getting sidetracked by boring (and endless) "this could not happen/this is ASB/unlikely."

 

[Dunois]

There are several "What-if" threads on the effects of a Franco-British Union at various times and somewhere there's an actual "alt-history" Franco-British union thread which I can't seem to find. (Loved the "Top Gear" post) but in effect the premise of the entire idea was a one-time-thing predicated on the situation in 1940 and unlikely to be viable at any other point.

Randy

I think you're referring to my TL here

A full-on Franco-British Union emerging from the Suez Crisis is unlikely to happen. But one from the 1940 proposal can emerge. I plan to re-explore the subject at some point.

 

[RanulfC]

I didn't
think people would be so critical

Well it's mainly a question of timing and outcomes. By the time of the Suez crisis both Britain and France are not only in decline from wartime debt and reconstruction but they are drifting further apart with Suez actually driving them even more-so. The French public saw Suez as fighting for British interests while their own were ignored. The British saw the loss of prestige being partially Frances fault and so the idea of a union at that point in time would literally take a miracle.

It's really a question of the POD being non-viable and needing some sort of earlier change to make it plausible or even possible.

The "outcomes" of 1979/1987 are also full of issues which would need deeper and more expanded explanation as the proposed outcomes are highly unlikely even with an existing Franco-British Union in Europe. The chances of the Union being able to actually hang on to "empire" is questionable at best and there would be little sense in the US not following through to force a total withdrawal/rearrangement if they got anything out of it at all. There'd have to be some very good reason for US/USSR "instability" at that point in time let alone a collapse as it's just not easy to arrange as one might think. The establishment of an EU with an existing FBU is unlikely as it would more likely be a functional block allied to the FBU rather than anything like the EU. Likely a more expansive and coordinated EEC.

Again the biggest issue is the initial timing and most of the "outcomes" not actually flowing from that point. Why did you pick that particular point anyway?

Randy

 

[Garrison]

I think the problem is that there is no explanation for how the initial POD leads to things like the USA collapsing, one does not seem to reasonably lead to the other. Perhaps if the OP could provide more 'connective tissue' it would hang together better but I suspect that would increase the implausibility not reduce it.