What If the Fortunes of the 1972 Vice Presidential Tickets were Reversed?

[ejpsan]

In 1972 George McGovern's first choice for the Vice-Presidential nominee was R. Sargent Shriver, the Kennedy's Brother-in-Law but he was on a trip to the USSR during the convention and could not be reached.
After McGovern was turned down by some big names like Sens. Kennedy, Ribicoff, Muskie, and Humphery, the choice became Sen. Thomas Egleton of Missouri who failed to disclose his treatment for Depression including Electro-shock therapy.
Because the selection came so late in the process, the McGovern campaign could not close additional nominations from the floor of the convention, and that lead to McGovern's acceptance speech taking place after 3:00 AM.
So, this is Part One of the What If, Shriver is selected as plan and McGovern gets to make his speech in Prime Time.

Part Two: Vice President Agnew was taking bribes since his time as the County Executive of Baltimore County. continuing as Governor of Maryland, and even as Vice President.
So, What If the disclosure of Agnew taking bribes came out one year earlier and he resigned as Vice President in October 10, 1972, which by that time it would be too late to take him off the ballots.
Theoretically the Electors for the Nixion/ Agnew ticket could still vote for Agnew for Vice President, or the Republican National Committee could have nominated someone (Nixion's choice really) for Vice President after the General Election, thus bypassing the 22nd Amendment.

 

[Amadeus]

In 1972 George McGovern's first choice for the Vice-Presidential nominee was R. Sargent Shriver, the Kennedy's Brother-in-Law but he was on a trip to the USSR during the convention and could not be reached.
After McGovern was turned down by some big names like Sens. Kennedy, Ribicoff, Muskie, and Humphery, the choice became Sen. Thomas Egleton of Missouri who failed to disclose his treatment for Depression including Electro-shock therapy.
Because the selection came so late in the process, the McGovern campaign could not close additional nominations from the floor of the convention, and that lead to McGovern's acceptance speech taking place after 3:00 AM.
So, this is Part One of the What If, Shriver is selected as plan and McGovern gets to make his speech in Prime Time.

Part Two: Vice President Agnew was taking bribes since his time as the County Executive of Baltimore County. continuing as Governor of Maryland, and even as Vice President.
So, What If the disclosure of Agnew taking bribes came out one year earlier and he resigned as Vice President in October 10, 1972, which by that time it would be too late to take him off the ballots.
Theoretically the Electors for the Nixion/ Agnew ticket could still vote for Agnew for Vice President, or the Republican National Committee could have nominated someone (Nixion's choice really) for Vice President after the General Election, thus bypassing the 22nd Amendment.

Nixon probably still wins but more narrowly. Perhaps Congress would pass a law allowing for Agnew to be kicked off the ballot.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Considering how bad McGovern lost, Nixon probably still wins comfortably. Maybe the election looks like Reagan's 1980 win.

 

[Nelson Mikeson]

In 1972 George McGovern's first choice for the Vice-Presidential nominee was R. Sargent Shriver, the Kennedy's Brother-in-Law but he was on a trip to the USSR during the convention and could not be reached.
After McGovern was turned down by some big names like Sens. Kennedy, Ribicoff, Muskie, and Humphery, the choice became Sen. Thomas Egleton of Missouri who failed to disclose his treatment for Depression including Electro-shock therapy.
Because the selection came so late in the process, the McGovern campaign could not close additional nominations from the floor of the convention, and that lead to McGovern's acceptance speech taking place after 3:00 AM.
So, this is Part One of the What If, Shriver is selected as plan and McGovern gets to make his speech in Prime Time.

Part Two: Vice President Agnew was taking bribes since his time as the County Executive of Baltimore County. continuing as Governor of Maryland, and even as Vice President.
So, What If the disclosure of Agnew taking bribes came out one year earlier and he resigned as Vice President in October 10, 1972, which by that time it would be too late to take him off the ballots.
Theoretically the Electors for the Nixion/ Agnew ticket could still vote for Agnew for Vice President, or the Republican National Committee could have nominated someone (Nixion's choice really) for Vice President after the General Election, thus bypassing the 22nd Amendment.

Or better have McGovern select a stronger running mate, like Ted Kennedy or Lloyd Bentsen. Add to Agnew's corruption revelations, revelations about Nixon's sabotaging of Muskie's campaign and even some early discovery of his involvement in Watergate. Also, Nixon is so hurt electoraly by relevations about Agnew's kickbacks that he drops him from the ticket and picks Nelson Rockefeller, who proves to be a weak campaigner. And finally, the peace negotiations in Paris fail and the Viet Cong launches a new offensive and, if possible, seize the South by October, right in time for the decisive election surprise.

And there you have it, Nixon's reputation is in shambles, his foreign policy expertise compromised, his Administration discredited for corruption and meddling in the Democratic primary process, while McGovern is seen as a fresh new start for honest government. By election day, McGovern sweeps the country, while Nixon only holds unto the South.

 

[ejpsan]

I really don't see Nixon losing, but it will be a bit closer with McGovern winning 10+ states and maybe some close House and Senate races swing from Republican to Democratic which leads Nixon to be more vulnerable when the Watergate scandal heats up.
The main issue becomes who will Nixon name to replace Agnew.
Nixon will want to name John Connolly but there will be push back from both Democrats and Republicans, naming Gov. Reagan will alienate moderates, naming Gov. Rockefeller alienates conservatives, and whomever is named is automatically the front runner in 1976 for the Republican nomination.
Maybe Nixon tries to run out the clock and not name anyone before the election, but that leads to accusations that Nixon is planning to name a " Stealth Candidate ", another possibility is that the electors on their own vote who they want, which leads to even more problems if there are no candidate that gets a majority in the Electoral College, then the Senate votes between the two top vote recipients, and with the Senate firmly in Democratic hands, they hold off on voting until Nixon agrees to use the process in the 22nd Amendment, or if Shriver is one of the top two vote recipients the possibility (very unlikely) the Senate elects him as Vice President.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

And finally, the peace negotiations in Paris fail and the Viet Cong launches a new offensive and, if possible, seize the South by October, right in time for the decisive election surprise.

And while we're at, have the Ku Klux Klan issue a public endorsement of Nixon which he gratefully accepts.

That's about as likely as a successful Viet Cong offensive in 1972. In fact, by 1972 the Viet Cong had been all but destroyed: most of their cadres were sacrificed in the 1968 Tet Offensive, Only reinforcement from the north kept the Communst insurgency going. And the US bombing of North Vietnam in 1972 was so effective that the guards at the PoW compounds tried to make nice with the prisoners so they would have character witnesses at the war crimes trials they expected.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Or better have McGovern select a stronger running mate, like Ted Kennedy or Lloyd Bentsen. Add to Agnew's corruption revelations, revelations about Nixon's sabotaging of Muskie's campaign and even some early discovery of his involvement in Watergate. Also, Nixon is so hurt electoraly by relevations about Agnew's kickbacks that he drops him from the ticket and picks Nelson Rockefeller, who proves to be a weak campaigner. And finally, the peace negotiations in Paris fail and the Viet Cong launches a new offensive and, if possible, seize the South by October, right in time for the decisive election surprise.

And there you have it, Nixon's reputation is in shambles, his foreign policy expertise compromised, his Administration discredited for corruption and meddling in the Democratic primary process, while McGovern is seen as a fresh new start for honest government. By election day, McGovern sweeps the country, while Nixon only holds unto the South.

If Lloyd Bentsen is the running mate, and McGovern is doing so well, it's possible the Republicans lose the Solid South. Texas was actually heavily targeted by Michael Dukakis and Lloyd Bentsen was a true Texan unlike Bush who was a New England migrant and yet Dukakis did so badly in general just because he was terrible at campaigning.

 

[marktaha]

VP Ford earlier? US never crazy enough to elect McGovern.

 

[Amadeus]

VP Ford earlier? US never crazy enough to elect McGovern.

What if Agnew's scandals had come out two years earlier, in October 1971? Agnew is forced to resign, and Ford is appointed to replace him. Nixon's credibility is weakened by the whole affair, and as a result the national media pays closer attention to the Watergate break in. Instead of Eagleton, McGovern selects Bentsen (or another Southern moderate like Carter) and gives his speech during prime time. That would be enough to swing a large number of votes to McGovern and even give him a not unrealistic shot at winning. (In January 1972 Nixon led Edmund Muskie by a single point in a Harris poll, so a landslide for Nixon was never a foregone conclusion).

 

[marktaha]

Against McGovern it was.

 

[troosvelt_68]

The one issue here would be whether Ford would accept VP in 1972, his goal was to be Speaker of House and many thought this could happen in 72 election

 

[Sabin]

Or better have McGovern select a stronger running mate, like Ted Kennedy or Lloyd Bentsen. Add to Agnew's corruption revelations, revelations about Nixon's sabotaging of Muskie's campaign and even some early discovery of his involvement in Watergate. Also, Nixon is so hurt electorally by revelations about Agnew's kickbacks that he drops him from the ticket and picks Nelson Rockefeller, who proves to be a weak campaigner. And finally, the peace negotiations in Paris fail and the Viet Cong launches a new offensive and, if possible, seize the South by October, right in time for the decisive election surprise.

And there you have it, Nixon's reputation is in shambles, his foreign policy expertise compromised, his Administration discredited for corruption and meddling in the Democratic primary process, while McGovern is seen as a fresh new start for honest government. By election day, McGovern sweeps the country, while Nixon only holds unto the South.

Early Watergate would do it. I'm not sure that Agnew's corruption does, although it certainly could hasten Watergate revelations.

I know that Nixon in '72 seems like a fixed point in history but Allan Lichtman gave him four negative Keys going into the election: disappointing midterms, real-per-capita economic growth not exceeding mean growth during the previous two terms, no major policy change, and candidate is not a historically charismatic figure. A Nixon scandal like early Watergate plus a major foreign policy failure re: Vietnam would tip the scales to George McGovern. Both of these narratives feed into McGovern's framing of Nixon.

It's important to remember that in this scenario, the DNC goes better so Americans get the opportunity to hear McGovern's speech. Sergeant Shriver is going to be a good proxy with the media, which is going to be very helpful . Maybe these events persuade McGovern to discuss his war experiences with the public. All of these things are going to tighten the polls, especially considering that Nixon is going to become increasingly erratic and while I doubt he ends up debating McGovern it's not going to be as easy for him.

An erratic Richard Nixon trying to cling to power during the 1972 election when he thinks he's losing it would be very entertaining (to imagine, if not live through).

 

[ejpsan]

One of the things that hurt the Mcgovern campaign was that it was incompetent because of how the convention was run with the acceptance speech starting at 2:48 AM and the debacle of the Egleton pick, in all actuality, the convention was well run for the most part with the McGovern forces winning the Rules and Credential fights that secured the nomination for McGovern on Monday night, and while the 1972 Democratic Platform has been described as "The World's Longest Suicide Note", it still that big of a mess on the floor, the roll call for the nomination of McGovern went well.
It was on the last night that everything went to pieces with McGovern's first pick for Vice President, Shriver not being available which led to Sen, Egleton being picked.
That lead to stories during the summer in the press on how bad the McGovern campaign was being run which drove down McGovern's approval ratings.
With Shriver being picked as first planned, and the McGovern speech happening in prime time, the campaign is praised as being tough and competent.

With Agnew's crimes being revealed one-year earlier, Nixon's reputation as being the "Law and Order" candidate takes a major hit with the voters, and the subsequent controversy on who will be picked by Nixon to replace Agnew drowns out any message that the Nixon campaign wants to focus on.

With all of this in mind I still think Nixon wins but by much less with the main effect that it changes the down ballot races as more Democrats go to the polls and less Republicans vote in the election.