what if the cold war did not end

[rip89]

Below is a an orbat that I have come up with for the RAF if the Cold War did not finish. Does any one else want to try one of these?

ROYAL AIR FORCE - GERMANY​

​

1. Bruggen, FRG:

a. No. 9 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR4
b. No. 14 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR4
c. No. 17 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR4
d. No. 31 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR4


2. Gutersloh, FRG:

a. No. 3 Squadron: 16 Harrier GR9
b. No. 4 Squadron: 16 Harrier GR9
c. No. 18 Squadron: 18 Chinooks HC2
d. No. 230 Squadron: 16 Merlin HC4

3. Laarbruch, FRG:

a. No. 2 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR4a
b. No. 15 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR4
c. No. 16 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR4
d. No. 20 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR4

4. Wildenrath, FRG:

a. No. 19 Squadron: 18 Typhoon F 2 (From Phantom 1998)
b. No. 92 Squadron: 18 Typhoon F 2 (From Phantom 1998)
c. No. 60 Squadron: 12 Islander CC2 (From Andovers 1992)

​

ROYAL AIR FORCE - UNITED KINGDOM​

Strike Command​

1 (Strike) Group

1. Marham, Norfolk, UK:

a. No. 27 Squadron: 18 Tornado GR Mk 4
b. No. 617 Squadron: 18 Tornado GR Mk 4
c. No. 57 Squadron: 12 Airbus A330 KC1 (from Victor K2 2001)

2. Honington

a. No. 13 Squadron: 16 Tornado GR Mk 4a
b. No. 230 OCU (No. 45 Squadron) : 30 Tornado GR4 (OCU for Tornado GR4/4a/4b units)
c. No. 39 Squadron: 12 Reaper UGR1 (From Canberra PR9 2006)


3. Coltishall, UK:

a. No. 6 Squadron: 16 Typhoon FGR4
b. No. 54 Squadron: 16 Typhoon FGR4
c. No. 41 squadron: 16 Typhoon FGR4 (Recon)
d. No. 226 OCU (64 Squadron): 16 Typhoon FGR4 (OCU for Typhoon FGR4 units)

4. Wittering, Cambs, UK:

a. No. 1 Squadron: 16 Harrier GR9a
b. No. 233 OCU (69 squadron): 18 Harrier GR9/T12 Harrier OCU

5. Cottesmore, UK

a. NATO Tri-National Training Unit:
1. 20 Tornado GR Mk 4 (UK)
2. 10 Tornado IDS (Italy)
3. 22 Tornado IDS (FRG)

11 (Air Defence) Group


1. Binbrook, Lincs, UK:

a. No. 5 Squadron: 16 Typhoon F2 (Tornado until 2002)
b. No. 11 Squadron: 16 Typhoon F2 (Tornado until 2003)
c. No. 228 OCU (65 Squadron): 20 Typhoon F2 OCU for Typhoon F2 units

2. Leuchars, Fife, UK:

a. No. 43 Squadron: 16 Tornado F5
b. No. 111 Squadron: 16 Tornado F5
c. 229. OCU (66 Squadron): 24 Tornado F5 OCU For Tornado F5 units

3. Wattisham, Suffolk, UK:

a. No. 56 Squadron: 16 Typhoon F2 (Phantom until 2000)
b. No. 74 Squadron: 16 Typhoon F2 (Phantom until 2001)

4. Leeming, UK

a. No. 25 Squadron 16 Tornado F5
b. No. 23 Squadron 16 Tornado F5

5. Conigsby, UK

a. No. 29 Squadron 16 Tornado F5
b. No. 101 Squadron 12 Airbus A330 KC1 (from VC10 2003)

6. Brawdy, UK

a. No. 1 Tactical Weapons Unit: Hawk T.2A with secondary air defense role
(Forming 63 and 79 Squadrons each 22 Hawk T2a on mobilization)

7. Chivenor, UK

b. No. 2 Tactical Weapons Unit: Hawk T.2A with secondary air defense role
(Forming 141 and 234 Squadrons each 22 Hawk T2a on mobilization)

No. 18 (Maritime) Group

1. Lossiemouth, Morayshire, UK:

a. No. 12 Squadron: 18 Tornado GR4b (Buccaneer until 1993)
b. No. 208 Squadron: 18 Tornado GR4b (Buccaneer until 1994)


2. Kinloss, UK
a. No. 201 Squadron: 8 Nimrod MR3
b. No. 206 Squadron: 8 Nimrod MR3
c. No. 120 Squadron: 8 Nimrod MR3

3. St. Mawgan, UK
a. No. 42 Squadron: 8 Nimrod MR3
b. No. 235 OCU (210 Squadron): 4 Nimrod MR3

4. Boulmer, UK
a. No. 22 Squadron: HQ at RAF Finningley, A Flight at Chivenor, B Flight at Leuchars, C Flight at RAF Valley, E Flight at Coltishall : 2 Merlin HAR.2 per flight
b. No. 202 Sqadron: HQ at RAF Finningley, A Flight at Boulmer, B Flight at Brawdy, C Flight at Manston, D Flight at Lossiemouth, E Flight at Leconfield: 2 Merlin HAR.3 per flight

No. 38 (Air Mobility) Group

1. Brize Norton, UK:
a. No. 10 Squadron: 12 Airbus A330 KC1 (from VC10 2002)
b. No. 216 Squadron: 12 Airbus A330 KC1 (from Tristar KC1 2004)

2. Odiham, UK
a. No. 7 Squadron: 18 Chinook HC2
b. No. 33 Squadron: 16 Merlin HC4
c. No. 28. Squadron 16 Merlin HC4

3. Lyneham, UK
a. No. 24 Squadron: Hercules C4/C5
b. No. 30 Squadron: Hercules C4/C5
c. No. 47 Squadron: Hercules C4/C5
d. No. 70 Squadron: Hercules C4/C5
e. No. 242 OCU (278 squadron): Hercules C4/C5 (OCU for Hercules Sqadrons)

8. Northolt, UK
a. No. 32 Squadron: Metropolitan Communications Squadron with 8 Dominie CC2, 4 Islander CC2 and 6 Squirrel HCC1.
b. The Royal Flight: 3 BAE146 CC1, 2 Merlin HCC6

Overseas

1. Akrotiri, Cyprus
a. No. 84 Squadron: 12 Merlin HC4

2. Falkland Islands
a. No. 1435 Flight: 4 Typhoon F2 (Phantom until 2001)
b. No. 1312 Flight: 1 Airbus A330 KC1, 1 C130 Hercules C5
c. No. 78 Squadron: 4 Merlin HAR5 and 2 Chinook HC2

 

[CanadianGoose]

Unlike the US the USSR had a large population of Islamic citizens, who could be susceptible to radicalization in a decaying USSR.

Believe it or not, decaying USSR would likely guarantee better living standards for 'Stans population than what they had IOTL in 1991-1999. And whatever Sunni radical movements were there, they were dealt with by locals, without Russian participation (well, except Tadjikistan, which was more complicated).

 

[Blochead]

Believe it or not, decaying USSR would likely guarantee better living standards for 'Stans population than what they had IOTL in 1991-1999. And whatever Sunni radical movements were there, they were dealt with by locals, without Russian participation (well, except Tadjikistan, which was more complicated).

Yes, but people rarely measure their standard of living against the worst hypothetical outcome.

And you're assuming that Western/Pakistani/Saudi support of anti-communist Islamic fighters and governments would not continue even if the USSR remained an intact superpower. This seems rather unlikely that it would cease as it did in OTL with the end of the Cold War.

 

[Urban fox]

During the 80s the eastern block was cracking. Poland had Solidarity, dissidents everywhere. Everyone from the Pope and down was working on it. Even parts of the Soviet Union (the baltic states) wanted to be free, but were of course discreet about it. The workers paradise hadn't delivered the promised goods, and the believers had died off. The rest wanted out. This trend would almost need ASB to stop.

Poland had suffered other periods of instability. Solidarity was a serious problem but the military had clamped down hard on them and arrested their leadership, and with a Soviet goverment still adhering to the Brezhnev doctrine the Polish Communists would remain in power, Solidarity would be a major thorn in their side but that assumes they retain their influence with the polish masses and remain a united movement and don’t suffer schism’s.

Soviets actions were always the decisive factor in the Easton Bloc, as everyone there well knew there's no way the Iron Curtian could crumble with the Brezhnev doctrine still in place.

The Baltic States are tiny and have/had a large Russian population this fact together harsh government action would firmly keep separatist tendencies in check. Everyone seems to forget the Baltic States had major insurgencies and large scale guerrilla fighting until the end of the 50's and smaller skirmishes with diehard bands of ''forest brothers'' until 1970. The Baltics could be held if Moscow had the political will.

The Soviet Union had gigantic problems by the time Brezjnev died. Demograficly soviet males drank themself to death, and soviet women didn't have children. The non-russian population of Soviet grew. The economy was a tragedy that no one could control or even knew (a rumor is that GOSPLAN at the end used CIAs data on the Soviet economy, since they didn't trust data from their own countrymen). Corruption was huge and growing. Since the oil price fell Soviet lost a lot of hard currency. A Soviet car was worth less than the raw materials that were used in the production of the car.

Russian/Ukrainian drinking problems pre-dated the USSR, it was/is not a insurmountable problem and could in no way threaten government stability. demographic trends in Russia toward lower birth rates are similar to those in Western Europe, and I understand the abortion rate was high. Still the Russians were unlikely to lose thier majority status until after the year 2000, and presumably they could’ve taken action to raise the Russian birth-rate or lower the birth rate in the ''Stans''

By 1980 "industry" was so much more complicated than "industry" by 1930 that the planning system didn't work. A lot of inerta, improvisation and ignorance let the system drag on for a decade more - but it couldn't survive and couldn't adapt (unless the planning system was abandoned)

Hmmm, the Stalinist planning system seemed geared toward extensive rather than intensive growth.It's true industry had become more complicated as had the tasks facing planners in Moscow, but with the advent of computerisation and IT technology information sharing would become easier if the Soviets invested in this area. The planning syestem couldnt just be ''abandoned'' as managers and officials had become so accustomed to it that simply dropping the central planning could (and did IRL) cause utter chaos and later an asset stripping feeding frenzy under Yetsin.

By the 80's the planning syestem didnt work well but it still worked.
Corruption was perhaps the biggest problem and limited reform to the planning system combined with a vigorous anti-corruption campaign and others measures to improve productivity.

Andropov tried this and had a degree of success perhaps if he’s lived longer (IRL he only had about 18 months and his successor Cherninko stopped the anti-corruption drive and halted his modest reforms) his more cautious reforms policies would’ve had so real dividends. There was no ''quick-fix'' to USSR’s problems. not even the magical godly power of the free-market could solve them overnight.

In sum the USSR's economy was stagnant but it'swasn’t a basket-case after all
capitalist free-market economies suffer major setbacks too look at Japan during the 90’s for example.

Star Wars showed that Soviet couldn't compete with high tech. They had fallen behind in computer science research, had nothing like Silicon Valley or MIT with the result that both military and civilian industry lagged behind - and would fall even more behind during the 90s. I guess that satellite dishes to recieve CNN would have been a big black market problem during a "Soviet survives".

Meh, the USSR in fact had plenty of talented computer designers and experts etc, and the military always had priority military industry would remain competitive and the KGB was highly adept at stealing western tech if needed the Western tech embargo worked only to a limited degree.

The state of the civilian industry would really depend on East-West relations since during détente the West was more willing to trade non-militery tech. As for satellite TV it'd be much easier to control than other mediums of commutation such as radio since you can’t hide a rather large satellite dish (if you could even get one, since likely the privileged party bosses would get first dibs)

Not to mention another trend: during the 70s and 80s party bosses started to travel abroad, and realised that the auto mechanic in West Germany had higher standard of living than themselves back in Soviet Union. Better healthcare, better washingmachine, well sorted grocery stores, nicer homes - for someone five steps below themselves on a social scale. Why work for a system that keeps them in ugly housing and non-working washinmachines?

Ha where'd you get that info? The Party bosses led a charmed lifestyle and had plenty of room for advancement by beating out their rivals. Maybe you're referring to lesser officials and the lower middle-class.

Yes, but people rarely measure their standard of living against the worst hypothetical outcome.

And you're assuming that Western/Pakistani/Saudi support of anti-communist Islamic fighters and governments would not continue even if the USSR remained an intact superpower. This seems rather unlikely that it would cease as it did in OTL with the end of the Cold War.

You cant lump all Muslims together as one unified group ready to commit to Jihad at any given opportunity just as with Christians Muslims come from all manner of races and cultures. The Muslims in the USSR had very little common with those in the Mid-East or even Afghanistan. They were also educated and grew up in a sectular/athist nation that and other factors such better living standards the Muslim countries would mitigate against foreign radicals in Iran and Al Qaida gaining more than marginal support unless a full
blown civil war breaks out.

As far as I can tell the Stans were stable with little appetite for an Islamic revolt or separatism.

 

[lord of war]

I think if they did continue on with the cold war there would be a huge advancement and if they did go to war then the soviet union would switch to a wartime econmie which is not too hard for a communist nation and the soviets had some of the best scientists in the world.