To my understanding, had Hogan not come to New York, Vince would have turned to Paul Orndorff, whom had just been signed out of Georgia, to be the new lead for the company. Orndorff certainly had the talent in the ring to be at the top, but one could ask if he had the personality to fill a similar role to Hogan.
As for Hogan, with him in the AWA does he have the type of National exposure to help them go out to a bigger stage? Verne Gagne was more typical of the old-school promoters and, while he did have a huge television distribution network, he didn't have a single national distribution point like the WWF (USA Network) or Georgia/Mid-Atlantic/ Jim Crocket Promotions (WTBS). Does keeping Hogan keep the AWA from reaching after talents like the Freebirds or the Road Warriors?
the AWA was on ESPN in its late days, so I could see ESPN carrying pro wrestling for a few years- maybe more if it stays a top rated show. Also, with the added money, I could see AWA keeping Road Warriors (unsure about Freebirds- they were willing to move around, but so were the Roadies)
I do think staying in the AWA would have influenced Hogan's work:
Potential baddies for Hogan I can see in the AWA: Stan Hansen (though Japanese commitments would have made Hansen unwilling to job), King Kong (aka Bruiser) Brody, Bad News Allen (Brown), Leon White (the man known as Vader in the future), heel turned Rick Martel, Larry Zybisco, young Curt Henning, a heel Lawler if he had better backup (though I think Lawler and Memphis bolt if Lawler can't get the belt)
Also, does this handwave Heenan going to WWF?
Another question: what would having a 3rd major promotion do to other upstarts like Mid-South/UWF and World Class?
I have a more radical scenario that I want to do a timeline of.
When I was a kid, I remember AWA being on the weekends, and World Class showing reruns after school on ESPN.