What if the Austro-Hungarians put the Eastern Front first?

[von Adler]

Russia by 1915 survived on the prestige of the army, mostly. That prestige existed despite the losses against the Germans because the Russian army was doing well against the Ottomans and had gutted the Austro-Hungarians.

If the Austro-Hungarians are not gutted, the Russians will need to get more troops against them (especially if they had more losses themselves) which will mean only holding in the Caucasus and far less prestige for the army. I could see an upheaval coming early 1916, probably a Kerenskij-like government taking over, committed to continuing the war (pressured by the Entente), but with the army more or less disintegrating by late 1916, like OTL mid-1917.

I think the Romanians could join after a Gorlice-Tarnow equilent summer 1915, thinking the Russians are done for (they joined the Entente after the Brusilov Offensive, thinking Austria-Hungary was done for).

I do not think Italy will join when it did ITTL, if Austria-Hungary still looks strong. They might still do it, but by 1916, they are facing all of Austro-Hungary's might - and they are very close to the best infrastructure and most loyal and industrialised Austrian lands, which means the Austro-Hungarians will easily be able to throw lots at the Italians.

 

[DanF]

Sounds like the Germans and A-H are roughly at the August 1915 Gorlice-Tarnow line in November 1914, cool.

It is sort of funny that the only A-H artillery strength is their the Skoda 305s, and it seems 18 of the 26 pieces are in German hands in the timeline. They can at least take comfort that they are in good hands.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Russia by 1915 survived on the prestige of the army, mostly. That prestige existed despite the losses against the Germans because the Russian army was doing well against the Ottomans and had gutted the Austro-Hungarians.

If the Austro-Hungarians are not gutted, the Russians will need to get more troops against them (especially if they had more losses themselves) which will mean only holding in the Caucasus and far less prestige for the army. I could see an upheaval coming early 1916, probably a Kerenskij-like government taking over, committed to continuing the war (pressured by the Entente), but with the army more or less disintegrating by late 1916, like OTL mid-1917.

I think the Romanians could join after a Gorlice-Tarnow equilent summer 1915, thinking the Russians are done for (they joined the Entente after the Brusilov Offensive, thinking Austria-Hungary was done for).

I do not think Italy will join when it did ITTL, if Austria-Hungary still looks strong. They might still do it, but by 1916, they are facing all of Austro-Hungary's might - and they are very close to the best infrastructure and most loyal and industrialised Austrian lands, which means the Austro-Hungarians will easily be able to throw lots at the Italians.

I agree about the Italians, though the situation with the Romanians probably won't be that easy. It'd take more sustained victories, probably including the fall of Kiev to pull the Romanians in; they coveted Transylvania much more than Bessarbia (Moldovia).

Now the Russian home front was also more complex; it dissolved defeats in the field, administrative incompetence, and food shortages. The food shortages and breakdown in rail lines took time to build, as did the hostility with the peasantry over food prices. We might even see a resurgence in national will after these early defeats, but much of that depends on food. 1916 would probably be the year though, especially if Ukraine turns into a battlefront, reducing food output.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Serbian Front

Very rough outline:
For the map I couldn't find a clean copy, so I over wrote an existing map.
Serbia attacks north by August 20th across the Save river with their 1st and 2nd armies, really just reinforced corps (4 divisions each + 1 cavalry division). The Serbian army was very low on munitions before the war and limited on artillery, which they further reduced by giving Montenegro 1/4 of their guns.

Neither Serbia nor Montenegro had much of a supply network, which hamstrung both of their offensives. Landsturm defeat the Montenegrian after a few minor battles, thanks to a lack of supply or real command or control.

Serbia expends most of her ammo quickly and bogs down, having expected the Serbs in Southern Hungary and Bosnia to revolt. They don't. Partly because of the patriotic mood of the country, Croat and Muslim crackdowns on Serbs, and Habsburg deportation of trouble makers. Liberal field executions by paranoid Habsburg soldiers, who had been few constant stories of guerrilla attacks by their superiors, keep Serb AH civilians away from the front.

AH 6th army attacks the flank of the Serb advance with much greater artillery power, buckling it. Losing 20,000 men while only inflicting 5,000, the Serbs are now without much of their munitions and dig trenches. Archduke Eugene does not pursue far, lacking the manpower for occupation and attacks. He also recognizes that there is no way to supply his forces very far across the border.

Skirmishing occurs in the down time, that is until Serbia gets resupplied via Salonkia by France and Russia, which requires them to attack again in support of their allies. Attempts to breach the Drina fail after initial success, mainly again to limited artillery stocks and supply problems, but also due to AH field works and mountain guns. Eugene also brings up two Landsturm brigades from occupation duties in Bosnia after there is no revolt, being formed into a division for service with the 6th army, while also receiving four more Landsturm territorial brigades, activated in September, but the quality of these troops and their equipment is very low, making them 4th line. Nevertheless, after retraining and some reequipment with machine guns and artillery from Bosnian fortresses, they are formed into a new corps for use with the 5th army.

Minor battles continue to grind down the Serbs, who lack munitions to respond to AH shelling. Another resupply effort in October once against comes with the strings that the Serbs must attack, but this is focused on the parts of Serbia seized by the AHs. Some progress is made, but the cost is too high, once again also using up the extra shells.

Poor sanitation and the lack of proper supply starts to cause widespread disease on the Serbian side, which spreads to the civilians population by the Winter. By December 1st Typhus is wreaking havoc in Serbia, though inoculations and proper medical/sanitation services in the AH ranks mostly protect them. Eugene requests additional forces for a wider attack, but is denied for the moment, as the Eastern Front requires every available unit, mainly due the vast distances needing coverage. Eventually some lower quality units filter in, those these need retraining, reequipping, and reorganization before they can be fully utilized. General Karl Tersztyánszky von Nádas is transferred to the Rayon Banat forces, bringing with him some more territorials and Landsturm, plus some newly formed units, which he attempts to organize with into an army group. AG Tersztyánszky is born, as its commander, discontent with his passive role, works with Eugene to develop an invasion plan. The Morova valley is deemed the best avenue for attack, meaning his force in Banat will take the lead role.

 

[Tom_B]

Serbian Front

The Montenegrins would probably make a token effort to take Cattaro quite possibly with some small French assistance (there was a French artillery detachment on Mt. Lovcen OTL) However the AH had an entire division guarding Cattaro so that gets shut down right quick

I really think the latest you can postpone a full scale KuK invasion of Serbia in TTL is mid Feb. There is a possibility that the Dual Monarchy does it solo but if and when Serbian resistance appears to crack that the Bulgarians would jump in and launch an improvised invasion of Macedonia

I agree with your comments about Italy I see Giolitti becoming PM before the end of 1915. I think your Kiev comment re Rumania joining the CP is a tad overstated but I agree with the sentiment that there is a long way to go before they join in this TL (actually Bulgaria joining first is a strong prerequisite)

Short of joining the CP there are 3 things Rumania can do to help the CP:

1] Sell as much oil as they can pump to the CP
2] Allow munitions to be shipped through their territory to the Ottomans
3] Allow CP forces to pass through their territory to attack Russia (this option is under explored in alt hist)

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I really think the latest you can postpone a full scale KuK invasion of Serbia in TTL is mid Feb. There is a possibility that the Dual Monarchy does it solo but if and when Serbian resistance appears to crack that the Bulgarians would jump in and launch an improvised invasion of Macedonia

I'm on board with the rest, however this part does raise some questions.
What about winter? Wouldn't it make operations too difficult to really advance anywhere but the Morova? The Bulgarians would definitely do so, though I wonder if they'd be on board from the beginning based on great AH prestige garnered from their victories in the East. OTL the Bulgarians did not trust the AHs because of their defeats on all front; here they would have beaten off several Serb attacks and defeated the Russians. With the advances in France and in the East, would not the Bulgarians be more willing to fight for the winning side?

 

[Tom_B]

I'm on board with the rest, however this part does raise some questions.
What about winter? Wouldn't it make operations too difficult to really advance anywhere but the Morova? The Bulgarians would definitely do so, though I wonder if they'd be on board from the beginning based on great AH prestige garnered from their victories in the East. OTL the Bulgarians did not trust the AHs because of their defeats on all front; here they would have beaten off several Serb attacks and defeated the Russians. With the advances in France and in the East, would not the Bulgarians be more willing to fight for the winning side?

Unfortunately Conrad demonstrated all too well that he underestimates climate. Serbia would be little less harsh than the Carpathians IMO.

Conrad made some nasty comments about the Bulgarian army prewar which greatly annoyed Sofia. They would not submit to a command structure headed by the AH. So you would need a German headed army group involving at least 6 German divisions---which is a road I've taken in two TL's but in both of those projects Conrad still experienced bitter defeat in Serbia in 1914. Here you have given Conrad all the reasons possible to be overconfident about doing it solo in the depths of winter.

 

[Snake Featherston]

The more sensible action would have been to send all of Austria-Hungary's troops against the smaller, weaker Serbian state and take that one out first before trying to fight Imperial Russia. A nearly universal WWI mistake was trying to do too much with too little. If Austria-Hungary had moved to squish Serbia first it would thus have had a war solely against Russia, which would be at least a help to the Central Powers in the short-term as opposed to having three failed invasions and then a joint Central Powers invasion dedicated solely to defeating Serbia.

If anything that kind of rapid victory might actually strengthen the Habsburg Monarchy itself in the short-term.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The more sensible action would have been to send all of Austria-Hungary's troops against the smaller, weaker Serbian state and take that one out first before trying to fight Imperial Russia. A nearly universal WWI mistake was trying to do too much with too little. If Austria-Hungary had moved to squish Serbia first it would thus have had a war solely against Russia, which would be at least a help to the Central Powers in the short-term as opposed to having three failed invasions and then a joint Central Powers invasion dedicated solely to defeating Serbia.

If anything that kind of rapid victory might actually strengthen the Habsburg Monarchy itself in the short-term.

I'm not so sure. The loss of Galicia is damaging to the monarchy and Conrad will have to find a way to resist his monarch's order to attack. The time it would have taken for Serbia to be defeated would probably have been too long, as Russia would be hitting the San-Dniester line in early September. Even if the they hold, there is the issue of the Russian 9th army being a wild card, either flanking the AH defenses or attacking and probably overrunning East Prussia. There are a lot of butterflies here from AH not attacking, some potentially deadly. I'd actually be up for writing two concurrent TL's about the different strategies in August 1914.

 

[Snake Featherston]

I'm not so sure. The loss of Galicia is damaging to the monarchy and Conrad will have to find a way to resist his monarch's order to attack. The time it would have taken for Serbia to be defeated would probably have been too long, as Russia would be hitting the San-Dniester line in early September. Even if the they hold, there is the issue of the Russian 9th army being a wild card, either flanking the AH defenses or attacking and probably overrunning East Prussia. There are a lot of butterflies here from AH not attacking, some potentially deadly. I'd actually be up for writing two concurrent TL's about the different strategies in August 1914.

The loss of Galicia wouldn't negate that Russia got whupped in most battles against the Germans in 1914. They'll still get stomped in East Prussia and a full Austro-Hungarian attack against Serbia that takes it out before the fall of 1914 means an Austro-Hungarian army with more of an air of being able to win battles confronts the Russians by fall.

The morale factor would be different, at least initially.

 

[DanF]

In regards to Galicia if my reading the Economics of World War 1 book is correct about 1/5 of the Austria-Hungary agriculture value is in that province, so that it a huge hit that they took OTL.

If Austria-Hungary can wait at least until April-May then the Typhus Epidemic will have done most of the work for them. OTL it actually hit the Medical staff first (contracted trying to help the first victims), which is what made it so damaging. Also, with more men under arms, and even more people to feed the 150,000+ people killed by Typhus OTL might be far less than what this timeline Serbia suffers. Once the invasion gets going the lack of doctors and nurses (killed by Typhus) is going to make the abiltiy for the Serbian army to recover from attacks a lot worse.

In regard to Conrad and timing. Did not Conrad nominate Archduke Eugene to command this front? As a Habsburg and the Grandson of the Great Habsburg General Archduke Charles, Eugene's word would carry a lot of weight on when to invade. Also, for internal PR purposes having a Habsburg General and the Grandson of Archduke Charles showing his military heritage, would be a huge win. Heck maybe they can give it a fancy name like the Black Yellow Offensive. You know to wrap it into the Habsburg mystic.

Good update!

 

[Deleted member 1487]

In regards to Galicia if my reading the Economics of World War 1 book is correct about 1/5 of the Austria-Hungary agriculture value is in that province, so that it a huge hit that they took OTL.

If Austria-Hungary can wait at least until April-May then the Typhus will have done most of the work for them. OTL it actually hit the Medical staff first, so that is what made it so damaging. Also, with more men under arms, and more people to feed the 150,000+ losses OTL might be far less than what this Serbia suffers here. Once the invasion gets going the lack of doctors and nurses is going to make the abiltiy for the Serbian army to recover from attacks a lot worse.

In regard to Conrad and timing. Did not Conrad nominate Archduke Eugene to command this front? As a Habsburg and the Grandson of the Great Habsburg General Archduke Charles, Eugene's word would carry a lot of weight on when to invade. Also, for internal PR purposes having a Habsburg General and the Grandson of Archduke Charles showing his military heritage, would be a huge win. Heck maybe they can give it a fancy name like the Black Yellow Offensive. You know to wrap it more into the Habsburg mystic.

Good update!

That raises a good point. I like the offensive name
Both Eugene and Tersztyánszky were very well respected, the former even outside of AH. The later had Archduke Fredrich's favor as well (Conrad's direct superior), so those two combined, coupled with Conrad's respect for his former mentor/superior, probably would be enough to hold off the offensive pressures until proper weather came about, you know, like March.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=175301
If Sebia got priority

 

[DanF]

That raises a good point. I like the offensive name
Both Eugene and Tersztyánszky were very well respected, the former even outside of AH. The later had Archduke Fredrich's favor as well (Conrad's direct superior), so those two combined, coupled with Conrad's respect for his former mentor/superior, probably would be enough to hold off the offensive pressures until proper weather came about, you know, like March.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=175301
If Sebia got priority

Didn't Tisza and Tersztyanszky hate each other? Sounds like all the more reason to like Tersztyanszky. I mean Tisza was better then than the Hungarian nobles that wanted Indepedence, but then again loss of a limb is better than death.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Didn't Tisza and Tersztyanszky hate each other? Sounds like all the more reason to like Tersztyanszky. I mean Tisza was better then than the Hungarian nobles that wanted Indepedence, but then again loss of a limb is better than death.

Tisza was the smartest guy in the Hungarian political scene; he understood that Hungary needed Austria, but he didn't let the Austrians know that. He played the Habsburgs every which way while trying to keep the extreme nationalism he himself had built under control. Ultimately he lost control of the debate, but he played the game well. Evil genius that one.

Tersztyanszky was Hungarian, but was a Habsburg loyalist. In fact, he ended up having a hard time with his native language because he spoke German so much! All the best Hungarian soldiers/officers went into the K.u.K. army because it had the best opportunities and did not discriminate at all (except when FF intervened to prevent Jews from being promoted...guess he never met Eduard Fischer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eduard_Fischer He and the other Jewish inhabitants (and targets of the Cossacks) of Bukowina maintained a guerrilla war against the Russians until Pflanzer-Baltin showed up. Its a damn shame that more of this attitude was not harnessed in the Jewish population).

Tersztyanszky was actually FF's second choice for CoS if Conrad did not go for it. But he was a hot head who told off people for being stupid; he did not get along with Franz Josef

The man was actually very, very able and would have made an excellent CoS if he had had the opportunity. The OTL invasion plan of Serbia was his idea; he actually was stationed in Banat and out of frustration and boredom developed the plan and logistics for taking on Serbia.
http://www.austro-hungarian-army.co.uk/biog/tersztyanszky.htm

 

[The Sandman]

Might Conrad be too focused on some grand scheme to smash the battered Russians to concern himself over-much with Serbia in winter 1914-15?

Especially if the typhus epidemic hits before the invasion; aside from the degree to which it would weaken the Serbians, it might seem prudent to wait to send large A-H formations into Serbia until the epidemic has more-or-less burned itself out.

 

[Tom_B]

Tersztyánszky

I only recall Stone mentioning Tersztyánszky twice. Once in connection with the Carpathian offensives and then later as the possible commander of Third Army against Serbia. In neither case did Stone seem impressed by Tersztyánszky and IIRC thought the ultimate choice of Kovess was a step up.

 

[DanF]

Tisza was the smartest guy in the Hungarian political scene; he understood that Hungary needed Austria, but he didn't let the Austrians know that. He played the Habsburgs every which way while trying to keep the extreme nationalism he himself had built under control. Ultimately he lost control of the debate, but he played the game well. Evil genius that one.

Tersztyanszky was Hungarian, but was a Habsburg loyalist. In fact, he ended up having a hard time with his native language because he spoke German so much! All the best Hungarian soldiers/officers went into the K.u.K. army because it had the best opportunities and did not discriminate at all (except when FF intervened to prevent Jews from being promoted...guess he never met Eduard Fischer http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eduard_Fischer He and the other Jewish inhabitants (and targets of the Cossacks) of Bukowina maintained a guerrilla war against the Russians until Pflanzer-Baltin showed up. Its a damn shame that more of this attitude was not harnessed in the Jewish population).

Tersztyanszky was actually FF's second choice for CoS if Conrad did not go for it. But he was a hot head who told off people for being stupid; he did not get along with Franz Josef

The man was actually very, very able and would have made an excellent CoS if he had had the opportunity. The OTL invasion plan of Serbia was his idea; he actually was stationed in Banat and out of frustration and boredom developed the plan and logistics for taking on Serbia.
http://www.austro-hungarian-army.co.uk/biog/tersztyanszky.htm

Read the bio on Karl Tersztyanszky, and the best part: Conrad said, "I need a General that would not be intimidated by the Germans, and rude enough to enforce our own interest." Considering the Bio talkes a lot about Karl's temper it is like the job was tailor made for him. I wonder in another time or with another country if Karl would of gone down as one of those "eccentric genius" Generals? He seemed very smart just had a huge temper.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I only recall Stone mentioning Tersztyánszky twice. Once in connection with the Carpathian offensives and then later as the possible commander of Third Army against Serbia. In neither case did Stone seem impressed by Tersztyánszky and IIRC thought the ultimate choice of Kovess was a step up.

Tersztyánszky, at least from the limited resourced I could find about him, didn't seem too bad. In fact in the case of Serbia, Koevess took the credit he deserved for creating the battle plan that was used to crush the enemy.
Koevess was a sound general himself and I'd rank both men in the top 10 of AH generals in the war.

 

[Josephus]

Interestingly, both men declined Hungarian posts by stating their 'great lack of command of the Hungarian tongue'. Since both men were born Hungarians, and loyal to the monarchy as a whole and to the common army, this seems a tad formulaic to me.

 

[DanF]

Interestingly, both men declined Hungarian posts by stating their 'great lack of command of the Hungarian tongue'. Since both men were born Hungarians, and loyal to the monarchy as a whole and to the common army, this seems a tad formulaic to me.

Kovess at least had the fact he was a Transylvanian Saxon to fall back on as a quasi-excuse for his lack of Magyar knowledge. However, Tersztyanszky according to the BIO is from an old Hungarian Noble family, so his refusal is obviously more for political reasons then anything else.

Since you pointed it out, I too wonder if refusing for "lack of Magyar knowledge" is the politically correct way of saying I am Pro-Empire and not Pro-Kingdom of Hungary?