I was wondering what possible scenarios could have happend id Russia had ignored the air blockade in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania and attempted unauthorized overflights to fly in troops during the incident at Pristina airport in 1999?
What if Russia ignored the air blockade during the Incident at Pristina airport?
- Thread starter DarkoRatic
- Start date
Depends on the scale. Single transport planes are not going to change anything substantial, and at best the Russian AOR inside NATO KFOR sector will be bigger. But if they go through with the full plan, all bets are off.
The Clinton administration was terrified of the prospect of Yeltsin being effectively bypassed by the silovik hardliners focused around Minister Igor Ivanov.
US military was not in a mood to compromise, but the European Nato allies were cautious and eager to avoid direct confrontations (this approach sounds depressingly familiar).
www.theguardian.com
The biggest short-term impact would be the undermining of the international crediblity of President Yeltsin, as well as the crediblity of Nato security guarantees given to eastern European countries still out of Nato.
Long-term the Russian plan was to keep Northern Kosovo as a part of Serbia under Russian peacekeeping operation, while KFOR would focus on Albanian-majority southern Kosovo. The obvious goal was to create a situation where Albania would directly annex southern Kosovo, but the important monasteries, Gazimestan and northern Serb-majority areas would remain a part of Serbia.
The Clinton administration was terrified of the prospect of Yeltsin being effectively bypassed by the silovik hardliners focused around Minister Igor Ivanov.
US military was not in a mood to compromise, but the European Nato allies were cautious and eager to avoid direct confrontations (this approach sounds depressingly familiar).
"I'm not going to start Third World War for you," Jackson told Clark
Nato supreme commander General Wesley Clark is not being allowed to fade away quietly. Days after the Clinton administration relieved him of his command two months early, Newsweek is reporting that the victor of Kosovo was blocked from sending paratroopers to Pristina airport to pre-empt an...
www.theguardian.com
The biggest short-term impact would be the undermining of the international crediblity of President Yeltsin, as well as the crediblity of Nato security guarantees given to eastern European countries still out of Nato.
Long-term the Russian plan was to keep Northern Kosovo as a part of Serbia under Russian peacekeeping operation, while KFOR would focus on Albanian-majority southern Kosovo. The obvious goal was to create a situation where Albania would directly annex southern Kosovo, but the important monasteries, Gazimestan and northern Serb-majority areas would remain a part of Serbia.
I am thinking that they...... would have gotten away with it and Russian confidence moves up several notches. Lets say that Russia continues to move and escorts transports with their few truly operational high performance jets.
- Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria were are not going to intercept Russian planes with out direct NATO backing and direct NATO assistance- and NATO commanders were sending mixed messages about how far they were willing to go in regards to a wider war over Kosovo.
- Furthermore, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, have no ties nor connections to Albanians as either a nation, or an ethnicity. Though hardly supportive of Serbia, the nations find even muted rumors of Islamicists operating in Kosovo troubling. The fact that the Albanian resistance was effectively all secular changes nothing.
- Russians ignore "No Fly" orders and land several battalions of paratroopers, a light armored battalion and a light artillery battalion before running out of logistical ability and NATO commanders find creative ways to block the airport.
- The Russians are now bottled up in a few districts of Pristina and are surrounded by NATO forces with far more combat power. Things look bleak for the Russians- their situation is descending towards a self supporting POW camp like Rabaul or Truk.
- Time for Russia to break out the diplomacy......
A. They will turn over the airport and occupied Pristina to France, and Frane alone, not the UK, nor the USA, nor "NATO". Yes, France may decide to give NATO nations access to Pristina and airport- but the symolic turn over will be to France.
B. The Russian Brigade will be given freedom of movement to Serbian majority areas in Kosovo. Russia alone will have an armed presence in these areas and will guarantee the areas demographic and political integrity. Liasion with NATO will be done through French intermediaries. French troops will also guarantee the integrity of scattered Serbian monasteries, cemetaries etc.