What If Reagan flamed out in the 1976 GOP Primaries

[ejpsan]

In 1976 Reagan lost the first six contests in the '76 Republican primaries and was almost out of money when he won the North Carolina Primary with a new issue: The Panama Canal Treaty.
So if Reagan loses the NC primary would he be able to.run again in 1980?

 

[RousseauX]

In 1976 Reagan lost the first six contests in the '76 Republican primaries and was almost out of money when he won the North Carolina Primary with a new issue: The Panama Canal Treaty.
So if Reagan loses the NC primary would be be able to.run again in 1980?

Yes

Reagan was clearly the leader of the conservative wing of the GOP, losing against an incumbent even badly in a primary doesn't kill your chances in future elections

 

[GeographyDude]

No

If Reagan flares out, he’s largely finished politically. And add to this that Reagan was born on Feb. 6, 1911, so he’d be 69, “ . . almost 70 . . ” during the 1980 Republican primaries.

 

[David T]

If Carter is still elected, I don't think Reagan's loss in NC in 1976 will make too much difference. He can say he made a good showing (incumbent presidents are almost impossible to beat in primaries, etc.), he will still have the conservative wing of the GOP behind him, he can still run and win in 1980. (As in OTL, he would be helped by the fact that moderate Republicans could not unite around a single candidate.)

But suppose (as some people around Ford believed) that if not for the bitterness engendered by the lengthy primary campaign, Ford would have won in 1976? Given the difficulties the US would face in 1977-80 under any president, and given that the GOP would have controlled the White House for twelve years, it seems likely that the GOP brand would be tarnished beyond the ability of any candidate--including Reagan--to save it from defeat in 1980.

In other words, if Reagan had lost in NC in 1976, it is conceivable that neither he nor Jimmy Carter would ever have become president.

 

[David T]

No

If Reagan flares out, he’s largely finished politically. And add to this that Reagan was born on Feb. 6, 1911, so he’d be 69, “ . . almost 70 . . ” during the 1980 Republican primaries.

You underestimate the fidelity of conservative Republicans to Reagan. And not only were conservatives increasingly dominant in the party (due in part to Ford's loss) but the moderate vote would be divided (Bush, Baker, Anderson) in the crucial early primaries.

 

[RousseauX]

No

If Reagan flares out, he’s largely finished politically. And add to this that Reagan was born on Feb. 6, 1911, so he’d be 69, “ . . almost 70 . . ” during the 1980 Republican primaries.

why? it's pretty hard to primary out incumbents, losing primaries for presidency tend not to be career ending. McCain and Romney both lost primaries only to win them next time round

 

[ejpsan]

why? it's pretty hard to primary out incumbents, losing primaries for presidency tend not to be career ending. McCain and Romney both lost primaries only to win them next time round

In this case Reagan if he lost to Ford a seventh straight time would have been out of money and would have alienated a lot of the Republican base for what would have been perceived as a Quixotic campaign.
In my very ignorant opinion, Reagan was able to unite the various strands of conservatism by the time the Republican Convention was held in August '76, without him staying in the race as long as he did that may not have happened and he could not spend the next four years building support for another run in 1980.

 

[RousseauX]

In this case Reagan if he lost to Ford a seventh straight time would have been out of money and would have alienated a lot of the Republican base for what would have been perceived as a Quixotic campaign.

Would he really? He still would have gotten on stage at the convention and 100% supported Ford but then gave a speech which ellipses him. Which is the same thing he did otl.

There wasn't a lot of bitterness towards mccain or romeny for running against the eventual winner, nor buchanan vs GHB. In fact, there probably be less bitterness simply because Ford and Reagan wouldn't have fought nearly as much since the primaries end much sooner.

In my very ignorant opinion, Reagan was able to unite the various strands of conservatism by the time the Republican Convention was held in August '76, without him staying in the race as long as he did that may not have happened and he could not spend the next four years building support for another run in 1980.

Why? Reagan has being the darling of American conservatism since Goldwater lost in 1964, he didn't built his political base in the few month of the primaries, he's being building them for over a decade by 1976. There's nothing stopping him from giving speaking tours and stuff in the next 4 years. He's a bit weaker than otl but come 1980 he's still super charismatic and has the core conservative base backing him. And voters have short memories they tend not to even remember what the primary scores from 4 years (basically 1 million years) ago.