What if Prussia lost at the battle of Sadowa/Koniggratz in 1866?

[raharris1973]

If Austria wins at Koniggratz and manages to keep France out, it would be very likely that it would try to beat Prussia for good. The Austro-Prussian war was the finale for a century of Austrian and Prussian rivalry. This war was fought to decide who unites Germany. Austria may or may not be capable of continuing after Koniggratz but that's where Russia could come in. Austria could promise Posen (maybe even Galicia in order to have the full Kingdom of Poland?) to Russia, as they were very much interested in it after the Napoleonic wars. AFAIK Austria IOTL was not willing to let go of her Transleithanian possessions and join the greater German solution because that Germany would have been dominated by Prussia and its population (16 million Prussians vs 12 million Austrians). However, without Silesia and Posen the odds would be in favor of Austria in a united Germany (15 million Austrians vs 12 million Prussians). Most of Germany was already on Austrias side IOTL, an Austrian victory would put Prussia back in its place as a second rate great power.

Color me skeptical given how bad Russo-Austrian mistrust was at this time. Even if Russia won't intervene to actively help Prussia, it's far, far more likely to prop up, ally with, and try to puppetize rump Prussia then try to feast on it.

*If* the Russians were to betray the Prussians and collude with the Austrians, the bribe would have to be much bigger than Posen. All of East Prussia and West Prussia (the lands east of the Confederation border) and all Galicia and Bukovina would be required too. Even then, hardly anybody would think this is in Russia's interest.

 

[Vanity 6]

Austria does have a victory even if it can not obtain territory or unite Germany. Austria wanted to prevent Prussia from uniting Germany and this will have been achieved. A regime change in Berlin is likely. It will probably espouse a cautious policy of just avoiding revolution.

 

[raharris1973]

Toskana am Rhein. Has a pretty ring. Still think it’s far fetched. But if it does transpire is Austria just recreating the dysfunction of the Italian peninsula onto Germany now?

Possibly. It depends what kind of regime is set up and how the new sovereign's meetings with community leaders go. Constitutions not at *at least* matching the representational aspects of Prussia just before Bismarck are asking for instant and bad trouble.

If Prussian inevitability is kaput and all Austria can come up with is installing its relatives, how unstable can Germany get?

Well, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_IV,_Grand_Duke_of_Tuscany & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_V,_Duke_of_Modena better be careful.

The formula that I could see gain the greatest stability would be if they could anticipate the consensus politics of the Catholic Centre policy, respecting the church and clergy, respecting private property and free enterprise and encouraging commerce, but softening the edges of capitalism with Christian informed rationale for providing basic social services for workers. I don't know if the sovereigns, ministers, and political classes would arrive at that solution fast enough.

Is republicanism the new movement?

Republicanism? If only. Communism Kamerad. Revolutionary disturbances in some of the more unstable states of Germany would likely result in attempts to set up Arbeiters Kommunes, possibly involving Marx and Engels themselves. Such attempts would be especially more likely in regions along the middle latitudes of Germany where there would be higher concentrations of industry and industrial workers, from Rhineland and Ruhr to Saxony and Silesia, you could call it Germany's "Red Belt". There along, with some of the North Sea and Baltic port cities where there's alot of dock workers is probably where you'd see the most militant and effective strikes, whereas Hanover, Mecklenberg, Schleswig-Holstein would be more conservative rural dairy land, Pomerania-Prussia would be rural conservative grain land, Brandenburg would be lousy with officials and wannabes, southern Germany would be more conservative with farms, scenery, merchants, and craft industries. The Kommunes could all end up crushed, but where they have the most local support compared to potentially weak local regimes, like Rhineland or Saxony, outside armies, Dutch, Belgians, Austrians, Prussians, etc. may need to come in to help.

 

[Mikestone8]

As for Wurttemburg's cost, the only place to really give them a contiguous, useful one, is out of Hohenzollern-Sigmarinen

Of course it wouldn't *have* to be contiguous. 19C Germany was full of non-contiguous bits ad bobs.

 

[John Farson]

I take it that a Prussian loss at Königgrätz and with it the war as a whole will at least delay German unification, though by how much is the question. I can't see any of the other non-Austrian German states in the Confederation become an engine for unification.

Also, without a unified Germany the Scramble for Africa, if there is one, will take a different form, if only by virtue of the territories that the German Empire colonized IOTL being absorbed by the other European powers, e.g., the area of modern-day Namibia being taken over by the British or an alt-Union of South Africa (if such an entity gets formed TTL - butterflies galore). The same goes for the territories in the Pacific that IOTL were colonized by Germany.

There might also be an effect on European military development. OTL, the Prussian successes against Denmark, Austria and especially France prompted pretty much the rest of the major powers in Europe to adopt the Prussian general staff and conscription systems, wargames, etc. Here, however, Prussia, after beating Denmark, has been laid low by Austria, despite winning 10 out of the 11 battles before Königgrätz. Will this Prussian efficiency on the battlefield go ignored in light of them having lost the one battle that counted? At this time, Napoleon III sought to reform the French military in response to the growing danger that Prussia posed, against significant opposition from both civilian politicians and the military. After alt-Königgrätz, I imagine there would be even less of a sense of alarm in France and more reluctance toward reforming the military.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

Territorial changes aside, I guess the main question is, could the Austrians actually follow up a victory at Koniggratz? They were pretty badly kicked around, and if the Prussians are retreating through a territory picked clean, the Austrians probably don't have a hope in hell of following. If the Prussians were turned back, I'd wager it would be a lot of diplomatic, rather than military, maneuvering. Both sides would be pretty badly bloodied, and I don't know that Austria could force Prussia to give up its annexations. I mean, they could probably force Prussia to guarantee the independence of Austria's allies, but would Prussia really be willing to give up everything without a fight?

 

[xmoose]

Guess all depend on how badly is Prussia beaten.
Yeah, I guess that Prussia want peace after defeat and with austrian reinforcements from Italy on their way... on the other hand, they loose one or two battles, they probably still stay on enemy territory... I am not sure if Austrians are able to invade Silesia... and victorious march on Berlin seem to be a bit ASB-ish - I can see some sort of white peace or mild terms there - Prussia renounce claims on Schleswig and Holstein and maybe loose some part of Silesia (I can hardly see anything more than whole Upper S. however... Glatz/Klodzko county is also likely)
As for "outer" factors: I think that France isn´t as anti-prussian at this moment? No, they don´t want strong Prussia as hegemon of Germany... but they don´t want Austria in that position either. I am sure they won´t hurry to help Austria destroy Prussia...
Yeah, Napoleon may try push for some border adjustment but I think, he is cautious - Luxembourg, Saarland or 1814 borders, definetely NOT whole left bank of Rhine.

 

[Faeelin]

Territorial changes aside, I guess the main question is, could the Austrians actually follow up a victory at Koniggratz? They were pretty badly kicked around, and if the Prussians are retreating through a territory picked clean, the Austrians probably don't have a hope in hell of following. If the Prussians were turned back, I'd wager it would be a lot of diplomatic, rather than military, maneuvering. Both sides would be pretty badly bloodied, and I don't know that Austria could force Prussia to give up its annexations. I mean, they could probably force Prussia to guarantee the independence of Austria's allies, but would Prussia really be willing to give up everything without a fight?

They had a fight; in this scenario, they lost it.

I am being glib, but this feels like weird speculation to me.

 

[John Farson]

As was mentioned earlier in the thread, Prussia has two armies on the field; one of them - consisting of the Prussian First, Second and Elbe Armies - has just been mauled at Königgrätz and whatever's left of it is fleeing across land its foragers had already stripped bare during their advance and would be facing starvation.

The other army has just defeated the Hanoverians and is moving toward the Southern States. However, defeating Hanover means bupkis once Berlin receives word of the disaster at Königgrätz; with no other realistic options it is likely recalled to cover Berlin from a potential Austrian (or Russian) invasion.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

They had a fight; in this scenario, they lost it.

I am being glib, but this feels like weird speculation to me.

The question is more, would the Prussians just sit back even after losing the battle? Or just regroup and attack again? Cuz a lot of the speculation seems to rely on follow up victories the Austrians might not be able to deliver.

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

As was mentioned earlier in the thread, Prussia has two armies on the field; one of them - consisting of the Prussian First, Second and Elbe Armies - has just been mauled at Königgrätz and whatever's left of it is fleeing across land its foragers had already stripped bare during their advance and would be facing starvation.

Exactly. Though with this I feel like a possible peace agreement would likely be a return to the pre-war status quo. Though France would likely purchase Luxembourg as they tried to do a year later in otl, and probably intervene on Austria's behalf to gain the Saarland. Napoleon III wasn't bullish enough to really go all they way and try to take the Rhineland.

However, defeating Hanover means bupkis once Berlin receives word of the disaster at Königgrätz; with no other realistic options it is likely recalled to cover Berlin from a potential Austrian (or Russian) invasion.

True. Plus with how Wilhelm I, von Moltke, and Bismarck were nearly killed in otl by Austrian artillery, all that could really turn the battle in favor of the Austrians is for a stray shot to kill them. This would cause chaos and a power vacuum within Prussia itself.

 

[John Farson]

True. Plus with how Wilhelm I, von Moltke, and Bismarck were nearly killed in otl by Austrian artillery, all that could really turn the battle in favor of the Austrians is for a stray shot to kill them. This would cause chaos and a power vacuum within Prussia itself.

Was Bismarck at Königgrätz? I thought it was Crown Prince Friedrich who was the third one endangered by Austrian guns, along with his father and von Moltke...

 

[Faeelin]

The question is more, would the Prussians just sit back even after losing the battle? Or just regroup and attack again? Cuz a lot of the speculation seems to rely on follow up victories the Austrians might not be able to deliver.

Or maybe they would!

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

Was Bismarck at Königgrätz? I thought it was Crown Prince Friedrich who was the third one endangered by Austrian guns, along with his father and von Moltke...

I'm not quite sure tbh. But if not, then Bismarck is pretty screwed either way as his head will be on the chopping block when the people are looking for someone to blame. German nationalists/liberals will hate him for fighting against Austria and screwing over the war effort. German conservatives and the army would probably be pissed as now the King, his son, and von Moltke would now be dead leaving the Kingdom in the hands of a child Emperor.

There probably would be some sort of liberal uprising, or at least the appointment of a liberal government in reaction to Bismarck's faction who would be thoroughly discredited. Either way this works out splendidly for Emperor Napoleon III as he goes down in history as a successful monarch while Bismarck's legacy would be tarnished.

Franz-Joseph on the other hand would see his own political capital within Austria and his prestige greatly increase.

 

[John Farson]

Child King, not Emperor. It's only 1866... But if Bismarck wasn't at Königgrätz and hence wasn't killed, he might come to wish that he had...

 

[raharris1973]

Territorial changes aside, I guess the main question is, could the Austrians actually follow up a victory at Koniggratz? They were pretty badly kicked around, and if the Prussians are retreating through a territory picked clean, the Austrians probably don't have a hope in hell of following. If the Prussians were turned back, I'd wager it would be a lot of diplomatic, rather than military, maneuvering. Both sides would be pretty badly bloodied, and I don't know that Austria could force Prussia to give up its annexations. I mean, they could probably force Prussia to guarantee the independence of Austria's allies, but would Prussia really be willing to give up everything without a fight?

You have a valid point, as much fun as it is to speculate on a total Prussia-screw like we have been doing.

Had the Prussians advanced and foraged through *all* possible mobility corridors between Prussia and Bohemia, or were there some relatively untouched ones the Austrians could have used, even if they would require some slightly circuitous maneuvers?

Let's suppose there are not, and the Austrians cannot give chase to the Prussians.

The next moves are more diplomatic as you say, rather than military.

What do you see as the differences in any settlement reached from OTL?

a) None at all in territorial terms- Prussia keeps all its annexations in western/northern Germany, but perhaps Austria never concedes the end of German Confederation and the southern states and Saxony remain in it with Austria, and they have empty chairs for annexed northern states?
b) Prussia has to concede back significant territory to Austria's larger allies, restoring an independent Hanover, Hesse-Nassau, etc. However, Prussia does get to steal some territory from them, enough to make a contiguous land corridor between Westphalia and Brandenburg (like through Hanover's southern exclave) and Prussia gets to keep Holstein in addition to Schleswig.
c) something else?

 

[xmoose]

cover Berlin from a potential Austrian (or Russian) invasion.

I can´t imagine Russian itervention against Prussia - from Crimean war, Prussia is Russia "best neighbor" - they hardly go against it, and not to help "treacherous" Austria, even if Vienna try to appease them with Posen, as someone suggested here - want they really at this point MORE Poles in their empire?
Russia staying almost surely neutral, while this neutrality is, more or less, pro-prussian

 

[Mikestone8]

As for "outer" factors: I think that France isn´t as anti-prussian at this moment? No, they don´t want strong Prussia as hegemon of Germany... but they don´t want Austria in that position either. I am sure they won´t hurry to help Austria destroy Prussia...
Yeah, Napoleon may try push for some border adjustment but I think, he is cautious - Luxembourg, Saarland or 1814 borders, definetely NOT whole left bank of Rhine.

He won't try to *annex* the Rhenish provinces, but he'll certainly want Prussia out of them - as would virtually any Frenchman.

 

[xmoose]

Bismarck did after all have back-up plans to use against Austria. In addition to his alliance with the Italians, he had opened up lines of collaboration with Hungarian and South Slavic dissidents wanting to break away from the Austrian monarchy. In OTL, the war ended soon enough that he made no use of those links.

But, if Prussia suffered military setbacks, could or would Prussia have played a Hungarian/Slavic uprisings card to try to recover its position? To what ultimate effect? How would Russia react?

What about Romanians? Hohenzollern was king of Romania at that time... heck, in combination with turmoil in Hungary, we may see union of Hungary and Romania under Hohenzollern
Though is very unrealistic scenario
Most likely outcome after prussian defeat at Koeniggratz is quick and mild peace, prolonged war isn´t in anyone interest: Prussia just lost battle and enemies will grow stronger (Austrian forces from italian front)
On the other hand, at this moment no enemy soldier stand on prussian ground while its armies stil occupy Hannover, Schleswig, Holstein and parts of Bohemia... I doubt it would, in such situation, accept some bigger territorial losses - for that would be needed some sort of invasion - I don´t think there is enough strenght or will for this, so no victorious march on Berlin and no reconquest of Silesia - althugh I know very little about austrian (not to mention bavarian and others) army
Then there is Russia - unwilling to war, but surely not happy with prospect of Prussia mauled by Austria... and France which, if war drag long enough, may attack whoever comes at top...
We will probably not see any big change on the map of Europe, on the other hand, impact on inner politics of both main opponents could be big - Austria was, from 1860, in process of reforms,* while in Prussia at least ends its chancellor, as others suggested before me...

* negotiations with hungarian politics ending in ausgleich started BEFORE the war - here, with different outcome of war, result will be different from OTL?

 

[Avalon]

What about Romanians? Hohenzollern was king of Romania at that time... heck, in combination with turmoil in Hungary, we may see union of Hungary and Romania under Hohenzollern
Though is very unrealistic scenario
Most likely outcome after prussian defeat at Koeniggratz is quick and mild peace, prolonged war isn´t in anyone interest: Prussia just lost battle and enemies will grow stronger (Austrian forces from italian front)
On the other hand, at this moment no enemy soldier stand on prussian ground while its armies stil occupy Hannover, Schleswig, Holstein and parts of Bohemia... I doubt it would, in such situation, accept some bigger territorial losses - for that would be needed some sort of invasion - I don´t think there is enough strenght or will for this, so no victorious march on Berlin and no reconquest of Silesia - althugh I know very little about austrian (not to mention bavarian and others) army
Then there is Russia - unwilling to war, but surely not happy with prospect of Prussia mauled by Austria... and France which, if war drag long enough, may attack whoever comes at top...
We will probably not see any big change on the map of Europe, on the other hand, impact on inner politics of both main opponents could be big - Austria was, from 1860, in process of reforms,* while in Prussia at least ends its chancellor, as others suggested before me...

* negotiations with hungarian politics ending in ausgleich started BEFORE the war - here, with different outcome of war, result will be different from OTL?

This is the most likely course of events in my opinion. Assuming a grand victory like most people are presuming here, the Prussian army routs and keeps a weak cohesion due to having to traverse over stripped land. At the same time, they almost certainly extricate themselves relatively intact and reel home for the defence. The other Prussian army doing the circuit across Germany and being used to occupy conquests almost certainly is withdrawn home too at the very least leaving the Southern states unthreatened and most likely relinquishing Hannover et al. to avoid a prolonged conflict. In terms of the Italian theatre, some above are saying France treated with Austria to relinquish Venetia for their non-belligerence. Such is honestly the first time I've heard of such and in my opinion, you probably get a negotiated peace up north and then reinforcement down south and fought peace if the Italians aren't able to deal a hearty blow during the post-Custozza period.