What if Prussia lost at the battle of Sadowa/Koniggratz in 1866?

[John Farson]

Prussia still has one army left - it has just defeated the Hanoverians and is moving toward the Southern States. In this situation it is probably recalled to cover Berlin.

There could be some kind of revolt. Iirc there were riots against the war in several German cities, which only died away after the first victories were announced. OTOH, Prussia is still mostly rural, so that may not be enough to overthrow the government, and neither Austria nor Russia would want an outright revolution, which might give their own subjects insubordinate ideas. Wilhelm I may possibly abdicate in favour of his son, but even that is only a maybe.

If both Wilhelm I and his son Friedrich are taken out by Austrian artillery fire at Königgrätz, as suggested by @Basileus_Komnenos, then the quesstion of abdication becomes moot. Friedrich's son Prince Wilhelm would ascend to the throne... at the mature age of 7 and a half... Yeah, that's gonna lead to issues of its own.

 

[Faeelin]

Granting the Prussians have an army elsewhere, don't the French have one too?

 

[Mikestone8]

Granting the Prussians have an army elsewhere, don't the French have one too?

Yes, which would give them considerable clout re the peace settlement. They wouldn't necessarily need to use it, esp if they thought this might trigger Russian intervention on the other sise.

 

[raharris1973]

Granting the Prussians have an army elsewhere, don't the French have one too?

Good point - What might they try to use it to impose or get for themselves?

If France wants territorial expansion for itself, which of these old territorial borders is France more likely to claim from the German states if it wins, a relatively modest increase to get the borders of 1814 (in orange) or a much more dramatic increase to get the border of 1801 (in blue)?

Yet a third option, perhaps more sensitive to the divisions between German states, might involve French annexation of Prussian Rheinprovinz only, leaving Bavarian Palatinate alone.

How well, or poorly, would any of these alternative French territorial aggrandizements be received Europe-wide or in Britain or Germany in particular?

If France uses its leverage not to directly get German territory, does it use the leverage to get any territory outside Germany, like Luxembourg or in Belgium?

If it uses its leverage not for territorial gains but just to manipulate and puppet the map of western Germany to its perceived advantage, how would this be consistent with, or run counter to, ideas the Austrians may have for placement of the rulers of Modena and Tuscany, or ambitions that Hanover and Bavaria may have for expanding?

Yes, which would give them considerable clout re the peace settlement. They wouldn't necessarily need to use it, esp if they thought this might trigger Russian intervention on the other sise.

What if they did use it, miscalculating it could bring more advantage with limited cost and no blowback, and it turns into a miscalculation, with the Russians coming in on the other side. What happens then and how might it get resolved?

 

[Mikestone8]

What if they did use it, miscalculating it could bring more advantage with limited cost and no blowback, and it turns into a miscalculation, with the Russians coming in on the other side. What happens then and how might it get resolved?

Could be a lifesaver for Prussia, esp as such a massive aggrandisement of France may well trigger British intervention as well. OTL even her acquisition of Nice and Savoy had set alarm bells ringing in Britain, and some new fortifications on the South Coast. Seizure of the Rhineland could trigger a secnd round of Napoleonic wars.

OTOH Nap III might take the opportunity to grab Luxemburg, which would give him a modest profit at far less risk.

 

[raharris1973]

OTOH Nap III might take the opportunity to grab Luxemburg, which would give him a modest profit at far less risk.

Luxembourg annexation wouldn't violate the 1839 treaty that made Belgium neutral, right?

Could be a lifesaver for Prussia, esp as such a massive aggrandisement of France may well trigger British intervention as well. OTL even her acquisition of Nice and Savoy had set alarm bells ringing in Britain, and some new fortifications on the South Coast. Seizure of the Rhineland could trigger a second round of Napoleonic wars.

Maybe reclaiming of the 1814 borders from Bavaria, Prussia, and Belgium could be had without war though?

Or touching a Belgian acre means Britain up in arms?

But a larger scheme scheme of annexing either the specific Prussian Rheinprovinz or the geographic Rhineland is likely to trigger Russian *and* British intervention to rescue Prussia and save the balance of power.

Ironically, Russia and Britain would find themselves on the same page against France, which would surprise many. Britain's purposes would be mainly anti-French containment, and keeping Prussia alive for that purpose. Although I would imagine if Britain is sending an army to the continent and fighting France it is not signed on to *all* of Prussia's original objectives, for instance, it probably wants Hanover independent. Russia's purposes are equally to prop up Prussia, contain Austria, and contain France.

How do you see such a war playing out with a "northern alliance" of Britain, Prussia, and Russia versus a "southern alliance" of France and Austria?

Would Italy be ballsy enough to join the war on the side of the northern alliance to gain the Papal state and *all* its claims against France and Austria? Or could it force France to buy it off by throwing the Pope under the bus for neutrality?

 

[Mikestone8]

Luxembourg annexation wouldn't violate the 1839 treaty that made Belgium neutral, right?

It could well do, but we know that ap III had his eye on it.

How do you see such a war playing out with a "northern alliance" of Britain, Prussia, and Russia versus a "southern alliance" of France and Austria?

Would Italy be ballsy enough to join the war on the side of the northern alliance to gain the Papal state and *all* its claims against France and Austria? Or could it force France to buy it off by throwing the Pope under the bus for neutrality?

Italy of course is in the war already against Austria, though whether she'd risk declaring war on France as well is another matter.

Austria's army, though victorious, has been badly mauled and is not in a good position to take on Russia as well, so effectively France is alone.
Prussia has a breathing space in which she *ma* be able to raise new armies (I'm not absolutely sure on this). But overall, France is in trouble.

 

[John Farson]

Austria's army, though victorious, has been badly mauled and is not in a good position to take on Russia as well, so effectively France is alone.
Prussia has a breathing space in which she *ma* be able to raise new armies (I'm not absolutely sure on this). But overall, France is in trouble.

Yes. Can't forget that even in this scenario where Austria has won a "surprise" victory at Königgrätz and put the Prussian army to flight, particularly if it came about through Austrian artillery getting a lucky hit in and taking out King Wilhelm, Prince Friedrich and/or Moltke, it's only come about after Austria and her allies suffering a string of defeats in only two and a half weeks, with even the lone Austrian victory before Königgrätz, Trautenau, being a costly one and with Gablenz having to retreat almost immediately afterwards.

Austria will need time to rebuild and regroup, and war with Russia would be the last thing they'd want.

 

[Sarthak]

OTL, the Russian government plan was to growl, but do nothing, and only to intervene alongside the other great powers during the six weeks war. The military basically told the government upfront that they could not afford war with Austria, and they should abolish the thought. It was diplomatic growling and nothing else. By Konnigratz, the Austrians knew this, with Franz Joseph receiving letters from the Galician commanders who had found out that the Russians weren't going to do anything. It is Franco-British intervention that is more pressing than Russian in 1866.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Would Italy be ballsy enough to join the war on the side of the northern alliance to gain the Papal state and *all* its claims against France and Austria? Or could it force France to buy it off by throwing the Pope under the bus for neutrality?

Aside from the obvious that Italy already is in the conflict, even with the fiercely independent Rattazzi PM and Chief of Staff La Marmora, they're not going to actively fight France, especially not when it's clear that they are not managing to free Venetia with their own strength alone.

 

[raharris1973]

OTL, the Russian government plan was to growl, but do nothing, and only to intervene alongside the other great powers during the six weeks war. The military basically told the government upfront that they could not afford war with Austria, and they should abolish the thought. It was diplomatic growling and nothing else. By Konnigratz, the Austrians knew this, with Franz Joseph receiving letters from the Galician commanders who had found out that the Russians weren't going to do anything. It is Franco-British intervention that is more pressing than Russian in 1866.

But what about the scenario that @Mikestone8 is discussing. France intervenes in western Germany for its own aggrandizement, and since it wants Rhineland, that is against Prussia, and that stirs Britain to get in *against* France and for Prussia. Would Russia get in then? Maybe the Russians could get a British loan.

 

[Sarthak]

But what about the scenario that @Mikestone8 is discussing. France intervenes in western Germany for its own aggrandizement, and since it wants Rhineland, that is against Prussia, and that stirs Britain to get in *against* France and for Prussia. Would Russia get in then? Maybe the Russians could get a British loan.

while nappy iii did make grandiose noises about the rhine border otl, in private he only really cautioned the french government regarding the Saarland and not the Rhineland. It was 99% a scare tactic against the Prussians.

 

[Mikestone8]

OTL, the Russian government plan was to growl, but do nothing, and only to intervene alongside the other great powers during the six weeks war.

My own guess is that the French Ambassador in St Petersburg gets a note along the lines of "We'll stay neutral if you do," and Nappy III takes the hint.

 

[raharris1973]

How is this for the ending territorial settlement, supposing the Austrians win, the French, Russians, and British stay neutral (although the French pocket Saarland), and Prussia's territorial losses are parceled out to Austria, the Princes of Tuscany and Modena, and Austria's mid-sized German allies?

 

[raharris1973]

Italy of course is in the war already against Austria, though whether she'd risk declaring war on France as well is another matter.

Austria's army, though victorious, has been badly mauled and is not in a good position to take on Russia as well, so effectively France is alone.
Prussia has a breathing space in which she *ma* be able to raise new armies (I'm not absolutely sure on this). But overall, France is in trouble.

Speaking of the escalated war scenario-

OK - France gets too greedy over Rhineland, Russia and Britain cry foul and declare war on France and move to back Prussia.

But, Italy isn't doing great against Austria alone, and won't risk declaring war on France. France is actively trying to woo them out of the war, possibly basically telling them that he *got Venetia for them already* and perhaps willing to evacuate Rome and Lazio.

Austria victorious, can hold its own against Italy if Italy persists, but is mauled and not in a good position to take on Russia as well.

So France is effectively alone against Prussia and Britain. Prussia *might* be able to raise new armies in its breathing space. What if it can't do it any time fast or soon?

Then France is getting to occupy the territory it wants in the Rhineland pretty convincingly and is effectively alone against Britain alone.

And Britain's army is alot smaller, while Britain's navy is alot bigger. So that's less than ideal, it's "trouble", but not necessarily dire. The Russians are practically speaking far away and probably tempted to deal with the Austrians before finishing any marches to the Rhine. This could go for awhile with the British and any of their allies outmatched by the French in northwest Europe while the British dominate in the colonial sphere.

 

[Vanity 6]

Toskana am Rhein. Has a pretty ring. Still think it’s far fetched. But if it does transpire is Austria just recreating the dysfunction of the Italian peninsula onto Germany now? If Prussian inevitability is kaput and all Austria can come up with is installing its relatives, how unstable can Germany get? Is republicanism the new movement?

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

How is this for the ending territorial settlement, supposing the Austrians win, the French, Russians, and British stay neutral (although the French pocket Saarland), and Prussia's territorial losses are parceled out to Austria, the Princes of Tuscany and Modena, and Austria's mid-sized German allies?

View attachment 678571

I like the map, but I disagree with some of the decisions made here. I think France likely would be seeking to annex the Luxembourg (though he'd probably buy this as there wouldn't be the 1867 Luxembourg Crisis now with Bismarck dead or either discredited). and the Saarland for sure along with other portions of the Rhine. I don't see Bavaria getting territory as part of an expanded Palatinate as realistic. France after all would still have designs on the Rhineland and Bavaria has been a historic ally/friend of France. France wouldn't really want another potential ally in its way. As for Britain, I don't think they'd be willing to declare a continental war over this just yet though if France does take a large chunk of the Rhineland.

Though if Prussia does regain portions of the Rhine-province and de-jure Westphalia, its likely that in whatever Great War that is upcoming they'd likely go for the entire Rhineland. And since Germany isn't really united, France still is considered a first-rate European power. A successful Napoleon III does alter French geopolitical strategy as well as the otl Scramble for Africa. I'd bet that it likely doesn't occur at all in ttl as France after Napoleon III largely pursued a largely useless space-filling Empire in North Africa to sate its bruised ego after the loss of Alsace-Lorraine to try and feed the idea of "Revanche."

As for Saxony, I think the restoration to its old borders is realistic. Now its gonna take a while for it to actually recover its former status as a regional power though.

I don't think Hannover should be expanded like that. I think its more realistic that Schleswig/Holstein would likely go to a Habsurg relative (likely the former Grand Dukes of Tuscany and Duke of Modena).

As for Silesia, if they don't take all of it I think they'd probably take Upper Silesia and a good portion of Lower Silesia with Breslau returning once again to Habsburg control. I think this a fairly good trade for Austria if they actually give up Venice in ttl which I don't think they'd do willingly just to save face. Though this has interesting implications for Austria itself as the Emperor's policies aren't discredited. Its likely that the Ausgleich isn't a thing in ttl because of Austria's triumph over Prussia. So Franz-Joseph's program of Neo-Absolutist rule probably still continues on for the foreseeable future. The Second French Empire would however be more of a Constitutional Monarchy, though Napoleon III would likely live close enough to Napoleon IV's age of majority such that the monarchy doesn't lose its power in a power vaccum over the issue of a regency (there were various factions such as Plon-Plon/Prince Napoleon-Charles "The Red Bonaparte" and Empress Eugenie).

 

[Mikestone8]

How is this for the ending territorial settlement,

Quite credible overall. Possibly a bit overgenerous to Hanover, and if all the other Kings make gains, I'd expect Wurttemberg to get a modest cut, but in general I'd buy it.

 

[hirsch91]

If Austria wins at Koniggratz and manages to keep France out, it would be very likely that it would try to beat Prussia for good. The Austro-Prussian war was the finale for a century of Austrian and Prussian rivalry. This war was fought to decide who unites Germany. Austria may or may not be capable of continuing after Koniggratz but that's where Russia could come in. Austria could promise Posen (maybe even Galicia in order to have the full Kingdom of Poland?) to Russia, as they were very much interested in it after the Napoleonic wars. AFAIK Austria IOTL was not willing to let go of her Transleithanian possessions and join the greater German solution because that Germany would have been dominated by Prussia and its population (16 million Prussians vs 12 million Austrians). However, without Silesia and Posen the odds would be in favor of Austria in a united Germany (15 million Austrians vs 12 million Prussians). Most of Germany was already on Austrias side IOTL, an Austrian victory would put Prussia back in its place as a second rate great power.

 

[raharris1973]

I like the map, but I disagree with some of the decisions made here.

I would love to see your version. All it takes is microsoft paint and some playtime to mess with lines, the eyedropper, bucket, and text.

I think France likely would be seeking to annex the Luxembourg (though he'd probably buy this as there wouldn't be the 1867 Luxembourg Crisis now with Bismarck dead or either discredited).

I wouldn't doubt a Luxembourg annexation as a follow-up.

and the Saarland for sure along with other portions of the Rhine.

I did include Saarland to France. What else, nuggets lost in 1814-1815? How much becomes too much for others to accept? A seemingly convenient size might be the whole Palatinate wedge consisting of everything west of the Rhine and southeast of the Moselle, but that's starting to get greedy, and it takes land from not just Prussia, but from France's old traditional Bavarian ally.

I don't see Bavaria getting territory as part of an expanded Palatinate as realistic. France after all would still have designs on the Rhineland and Bavaria has been a historic ally/friend of France. France wouldn't really want another potential ally in its way.

I guess the question is - is there anywhere else, except the Rhineland, where Bavaria can be territorially rewarded for being on the winning side?

As for Britain, I don't think they'd be willing to declare a continental war over this just yet though if France does take a large chunk of the Rhineland.

That's the rub and just how much is too much for Britain, and Russia, and how scary is it if its simultaneous with a move on Luxembourg, being seen as a prelude to take Belgium, etc.

Though if Prussia does regain portions of the Rhine-province and de-jure Westphalia, its likely that in whatever Great War that is upcoming they'd likely go for the entire Rhineland.

Who is the "they" here, France or Prussia? In terms of Prussian regains or retention in a peace settlement, I would suppose that in a defeat of the magnitude we are discussing, the Prussians would most likely be left with either, a) it's separated pre-1815 pockets in the region, or b) Westphalia

I'd bet that it likely doesn't occur at all in ttl

Scramble for Africa? Maybe not- But there's certainly alternate ways the 'space-filling' to get rolling anyway, even if more slowly. 1) British "men on the spot" expanding without central direction, and this eventually spurs some French competition, 2) Prussia, not a heavily coastal state, salving its pride beating up "the WOGs", 3) A Hanoverian, Hamburger or Zollverein driven enterprise, 4) King Leopold's eventual greed.

I think its more realistic that Schleswig/Holstein would likely go to a Habsurg relative (likely the former Grand Dukes of Tuscany and Duke of Modena).

Possibly so -- that avoids over-feeding the Hanoverian beast. On the other hand, when I planned and drew my map, I was trying to avoid putting Catholic rulers over uniformly Protestant populations, or vice versa. Also, Britain might like the southern part of the strategic Jutland isthmus being attached to the dynastically associated Hanover and give a strong endorsement to that outcome.

Possibly a bit overgenerous to Hanover, and if all the other Kings make gains, I'd expect Wurttemberg to get a modest cut, but in general I'd buy it.

Indeed, as drawn it is quite generous to Hanover. As for Wurttemburg's cost, the only place to really give them a contiguous, useful one, is out of Hohenzollern-Sigmarinen in their interior, so on my map, that would mean finding another estate/state for the Duke of Modena. I'm sure that could figured out.