What if Lee Harvey Oswald successfully escaped to the Soviet Union after assassinating JFK?

Lee Harvey Oswald was an open communist, and had lived in the Soviet Union (specifically Minsk) for two and a half years before returning to America. While there, had married Marina Nikolayevna, had two children, and the family moved back, settling in Dallas, Texas in February 1963. Of course, we all know that LHO would later assassinate John F. Kennedy in Dallas later that year.

Here's the really interesting part: According to the CIA, as LHO was on the run after the assassination, he was attempting to secure the needed documents to make a quick escape back to the Soviet Union before he could be found. That didn't happen, and this detail was only revealed recently in 2017. He was arrested, held for two days, before being killed by nightclub owner Jack Ruby.

But, as this is an interesting thought: What if in an alternate timeline, Lee Harvey Oswald managed to evade capture, and escape to the Soviet Union?

Would he have been safe there, would his presence escalate Cold War tensions (likely accusing LHO of being a Soviet assassin), and would the USSR agree to extradite him to face judgment back in the US? What other notable effects might there be?
 
Probably Soviet leadership would hand LHO to Americans. Protecting assassin of POTUS is not worth of risk of WW3. Soviets anyway might ask release someone Soviet spy against LHO.
 

SuperZtar64

Banned
Ignoring the fact that Oswald escaping Dallas would require divine intervention, the Soviets would haul his ass to the US government the very moment he set foot on their soil. The fact that he attempted to escape there at all would be cause for an enormous diplomatic incident. I concur with Lalli that at most, if the Soviets wanted to push their luck, they'd ask for someone in return, which the US gov would immediately comply with.
 

marathag

Banned
Would he have been safe there, would his presence escalate Cold War tensions (likely accusing LHO of being a Soviet assassin), and would the USSR agree to extradite him to face judgment back in the US? What other notable effects might there be?
An FBI memorandum written by J. Edgar Hoover in 1966 and declassified in 2017 suggests that the government of the Soviet Union was shocked by the assassination and blamed it on a right-wing conspiracy to overthrow the government, invade Cuba, and start World War III.[33][34][35] The KGB began investigating the new President Johnson, who it believed was responsible for the assassination
from the wiki
So yeah, would be a competition on how fast he could be turned over to the USA, because they really didn't want WWIII
 
The Soviets send his ass back to the states. The Soviets hated him as much as the Americans did. JFK’s assassination caused a large amount of tension between the two superpowers, and the Soviets didn’t particularly like Lyndon B. Johnson for escalating the Cold War.
 
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Escape from Dallas would sound like a piece from a James Bond story, but given the order of security in 1963, would not be ASB.
Not to hijack the topic, but what if he escaped to Cuba?

ric350
That or Oswald could simply "disappear."
 

Brylyth

Banned
An FBI memorandum written by J. Edgar Hoover in 1966 and declassified in 2017 suggests that the government of the Soviet Union was shocked by the assassination and blamed it on a right-wing conspiracy to overthrow the government, invade Cuba, and start World War III.[33][34][35] The KGB began investigating the new President Johnson, who it believed was responsible for the assassination
from the wiki
So yeah, would be a competition on how fast he could be turned over to the USA, because they really didn't want WWIII

The USSR investigated themselves as soon as the assasination happened to find out what happened, and turns out the KGB did try to recruit Lee but decided against it because they thought he was too unstable and too much of a loose cannon to be a good asset.

Honestly Johnson ordering the hit on JFK is one of the sanest conspiracy theories about the assasination.
 
So you're saying that one cold Moscow morning the Marine guards at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow find LHO on the front doorstep, tied up with one of Shelepin's dirty socks shoved into his mouth?

Seriously, if you read John Barron's Operation Solo (2014) you will see how the Politburo had a terror attack when they discovered that the accused assassin was a guy who had defected to them and then they had dumped him because he was absolutely worthless. However could the U.S. Bodyguard Directorate have been so inept?

They avidly questioned their source, the CPUSA's representative to foreign Communist Parties. He was a little surprised, too. You see, Morris Childs, the CPUSA official mentioned, was an FBI mole. That's right, the FBI knew everything the CPUSA was doing, including how much Chairman Gus Hall was mooching from the Soviet subsidy to the CPUSA.
 
Same result. Castro sends him straight back, though with possibly a bit more PRIVATE reluctance than the Soviets would.
Think so? I’m not so sure. After the Missile Crisis, Castro was pretty pissed at both the Americans and the Soviets. Even the Soviets thought he was a loose cannon. He might take Oswald just to piss them both off, and sod the consequences.

ric350
 

marktaha

Banned
The.consequences being war.with.America. with no.Soviet support,? Guevara might have been that crazy but.Castro wasn't.
 
Why anyone would even believe him? If goes to Mexico he would been seen as an insane USA citizen/gringo loco and denied even access to Urss embassy, the same Cuba
 
If he had simply disappeared, would it be assumed that the Soviets had him? How would that have affected future international relations and conspiracy theories?
 
The.consequences being war.with.America. with no.Soviet support,? Guevara might have been that crazy but.Castro wasn't.
Well at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, he told Khrushchev to launch the missiles against the US, even if it meant Cuba would be totally destroyed. Then when he found out Khrushchev had made a deal (and saving Cuba from attack then and in the future), Castro was pissed and felt the Soviets had betrayed world revolution. So yeah, the guy was not always putting the well being of his people first.

ric350
 
If he had simply disappeared, would it be assumed that the Soviets had him? How would that have affected future international relations and conspiracy theories?

Would LHO be able or even realise that him should remain very hidden? He would be most hunted man in the owrld if FBI just realises who did that.
 
If he had simply disappeared, would it be assumed that the Soviets had him? How would that have affected future international relations and conspiracy theories?
As said before have someone even know It was him did he send a letter to the press or something? If someone told me randomly he shoot the president I would believe he is insane.

All of this is a thinly veiled USA fuck yeah and usawank
 

marktaha

Banned
Well at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, he told Khrushchev to launch the missiles against the US, even if it meant Cuba would be totally destroyed. Then when he found out Khrushchev had made a deal (and saving Cuba from attack then and in the future), Castro was pissed and felt the Soviets had betrayed world revolution. So yeah, the guy was not always putting the well being of his people first.

ric350
I stand corrected.It seems Castro was!
 
Well at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, he told Khrushchev to launch the missiles against the US, even if it meant Cuba would be totally destroyed. Then when he found out Khrushchev had made a deal (and saving Cuba from attack then and in the future), Castro was pissed and felt the Soviets had betrayed world revolution. So yeah, the guy was not always putting the well being of his people first.
I stand corrected.It seems Castro was!
This telling of events is out of context and wrong.

Castro was not blindly urging Khrushchev to end the world for kicks. He was stating, at the height of the crisis, that the only option in the event of an invasion of Cuba or an air attack on Cuban installations would be for the Soviets to launch their nuclear weapons. He wrote the following to Khrushchev:

From an analysis of the situation and the reports in our possession, I consider that the aggression is almost imminent within the next 24 - 72 hours. There are two possible variants: the first and most likely is an air attack against certain targets with the limited objective of destroying them. The second, less probable although possible, is invasion. I understand that this variant would call for a large number of forces and it is, in addition, the most repulsive form of aggression. It might inhibit them. You can rest assured that we will firmly and resolutely resist attack. Whatever it may be. The morale of the Cuban people is extremely high and the aggressor will be confronted heroically.

At this time, I want to convey to you my personal opinion. If the second variant is implemented and the imperialists invade Cuba with the goal of occupying it, the danger that such an aggressive policy poses for humanity is so great that following that event, the Soviet Union must never allow the circumstances in which the imperialists could launch the first nuclear strike against it. I tell you this because I believe the imperialist’s aggressiveness is extremely dangerous. And if they actually carry out the brutal act of invading Cuba, in violation of international law and morality, that would be the moment to eliminate such danger forever through an act of clear and legitimate defense - however harsh and terrible the solution would be. For there is no other. Up to the last moment, we will maintain the hope that peace will be safeguarded and we are willing to contribute to this as much as we can. At the same time, we are ready to calmly confront a situation which we view as quite real and quite close
.”

Fairly standard Cold War operating procedure. And of course we know from the Kennedy tapes during the crisis that Castro was not making this up out of thin air. An American attack was very likely and heavily pushed, only by Kennedy’s clear sightedness did this not occur.

As to the other point: Castro was not pissed that Khrushchev did not launch a pre-emptive attack on the United States. Castro was upset for being left out of the secret negotiations between the White House and the Kremlin and then essentially told what the terms would be by the deal reached between Kennedy and Khrushchev. This deal included the removal of Soviet missiles.. in their mind this was the only thing preventing American troops landing on their shores. Other demands were dictated. Cuba was told that it would have to allow American inspectors on the island, among which spies could be shepherded. Furthermore, many of the issues facing Cuba were not raised or demanded by the Soviet Union during negotiations. This included piracy and terrorism from US-sponsored insurgents, ongoing military blockade of the island, the economic embargo, the American base in Guantanamo Bay, or really any steady ground for a neutralization of the threat posed to Cuba by the United States. And during further talks, the US added new demands such as the removal of two Soviet bombers from the island.

All this in exchange for what? American nuclear assets being removed from the Soviet frontier, not the Cuban one. It was a loss, plain and simple. A raw deal they were not involved with making and then were told to accept by another nation. The fact that Khrushchev deal “saved Cuba from attack then and in the future” as you say, was not readily apparent in the early 1960s. To the Cuban government, Soviet nuclear assets and troops on the island would save Cuba from attack then and in the future through mutually assured destruction. The capitulation and withdrawal of these protective elements seemed disastrous. While nuclear war was prevented, geopolitically this was a blow to Cuba and without the blessing of hindsight there were legitimate fears that Cuba was being sold out to the potential of invasion.

Castro pointed out that nowhere in the entire Crisis had Cuba violated anyone else’s sovereignty or international law, and yet was now having to concede its own sovereignty on a number of points because of a deal in which it was not consulted. Guevara made it clear when he said, “You offended our feelings by not consulting us. But the main danger is you as if recognized the right of the United States to violate international law. This is great damage done to your policy. This fact really worries us.” In fact, during the same meeting with Mikoyan, Guevara would say something that directly contradicts what you’re saying. Instead of being some passionate madman seeking to end the world by nuclear war, he had this to say: “There will come a time when we will show our enemies. But we don’t want to die beautifully. Socialism must live on.” And this is what Cuba’s policy bore out.

In short: No, the Cuban state was pursuing a rational policy of deterrence within the bounds of a Cold War environment. It wasn’t urging the Soviets to strike without any prior cause, and it certainly was not biting the hand that fed it by being upset that they did not blow up the world. The Cuban leaders were upset at the way the crisis was handled including the legitimate perception of being sold out and to have gained nothing tangible for the resolution of the crisis despite largely being the victim of aggression during the entire affair.

Very different reading when you add context. Castro and Guevara were no General Rippers..
 
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