What if Jordan's monarchy was overthrown in 1958?

[The Banker]

Jordan's monarchy was overthrown in 1958?

1)Would Jordan join UAR
2)Would UAR still break up like otl?(Assuming Nasser's behavior stays the same)
3)What would Israel's reaction to this be?
4)Would 1967 war still be fought and would Arabs have a better chance of winning it if Jordan was a republic?

 

[Lalli]

If that coup is similar Baathist revolt as Iraq, Syria and Egypt had, then Israel will have really big problems. There is not way how Jordan is going to negotiating anything with Israel.

About UAR I don't know if Jordan would join to UAR but it might still collapse since Nasser probably wouldn't act really differently and Jordan has not power to pressure Egypt make fairer deal. Better would be get Iraq there.

 

[The Banker]

If that coup is similar Baathist revolt as Iraq, Syria and Egypt had, then Israel will have really big problems. There is not way how Jordan is going to negotiating anything with Israel.

About UAR I don't know if Jordan would join to UAR but it might still collapse since Nasser probably wouldn't act really differently and Jordan has not power to pressure Egypt make fairer deal. Better would be get Iraq there.

would this result in earlier 1967 war?

 

[starman]

Jordan's monarchy was overthrown in 1958?

1)Would Jordan join UAR

Depends on the nature of the new regime.

2)Would UAR still break up like otl?(Assuming Nasser's behavior stays the same)

Sure. No "unification" deal ever lasted very long.

3)What would Israel's reaction to this be?

Israel wouldn't go to war immediately even if the new regime were Nasserist. But among Israel's casi belli was inclusion of Jordan in a military alliance which involved positioning other arab forces in Jordan.

4)Would 1967 war still be fought and would Arabs have a better chance of winning it if Jordan was a republic?

An arab-israel war in the '60s would be just as likely as in otl if not more so. But I doubt a Jordanian republic would fare better in a conflict. It might even fare worse, performing little better than republics like Egypt and Syria. If a new Jordanian regime is willing to import soviet weapons to oppose Israel, hence weaken ties with the West, the decline in Jordanian military professionalism, already underway with the expulsion of British officers in the '50s, might've been accelerated. Jordanian performance in '67 benefitted somewhat from the remnants of British influence; in this scenario even that might've evaporated.

 

[starman]

If that coup is similar Baathist revolt as Iraq, Syria and Egypt had, then Israel will have really big problems.

Conflict would be more likely or occur sooner, but militarily I don't think a baathist Jordan would be more effective than the one in OTL; it might be less. In some ways Jordan might pose more of a challenge if the Soviets were generous and gave Amman plenty of 130mm guns to hit Israeli airfields, to cite one possibility. But overall I wouldn't be optimistic about Jordan's prospects.

 

[The Banker]

Conflict would be more likely or occur sooner, but militarily I don't think a baathist Jordan would be more effective than the one in OTL; it might be less. In some ways Jordan might pose more of a challenge if the Soviets were generous and gave Amman plenty of 130mm guns to hit Israeli airfields, to cite one possibility. But overall I wouldn't be optimistic about Jordan's prospects.

would this 100% result in earlier 1967 war?

wouldn't Israel attack the Arabs immediately after UAR forms in 1959(Because its surrounded by UAR on all sides now and needs defensive breathing space)

 

[The Banker]

how would the dissolution of this 'slightly bigger UAR' work?
would Syrian and Jordanian dissidents strike at the same time with coordination or would Jordan leave after the Syrians leave?
Because imo if Nasser notices either Syria or Jordan leaving the UAR then he will clamp down harder on the one that remains inside

what do you think is the most likely outcome/method for dissolution of this UAR with Jordan in it?

 

[walmart]

Wouldn't it be likely for Jordan to be part of Syria in the UAR.

 

[Ahab]

Wouldn't it be likely for Jordan to be part of Syria in the UAR.

I don't think so, the Jordanian elites enjoyed years of independence from Damascus, so they are not likely to want to stay under syrian rule once the pan arab project fails. Power in syria would always stay in Damascus, and will leave them without any influence.

 

[The Banker]

how would the dissolution of this 'slightly bigger UAR' work?
would Syrian and Jordanian dissidents strike at the same time with coordination or would Jordan leave after the Syrians leave?
Because imo if Nasser notices either Syria or Jordan leaving the UAR then he will clamp down harder on the one that remains inside

what do you think is the most likely outcome/method for dissolution of this UAR with Jordan in it?

what about this

 

[starman]

would this 100% result in earlier 1967 war?

Likely, yes but we can't say "100%." Just like Rabin used to say "You can't predict what's going to happen next in the middle east."

wouldn't Israel attack the Arabs immediately after UAR forms in 1959(Because its surrounded by UAR on all sides now and needs defensive breathing space)

Up to then, Israel had always been surrounded by unfriendly arab states. They couldn't just strike immediately; they'd need a pretext.

 

[The Banker]

how would the dissolution of this 'slightly bigger UAR' work?
would Syrian and Jordanian dissidents strike at the same time with coordination or would Jordan leave after the Syrians leave?
Because imo if Nasser notices either Syria or Jordan leaving the UAR then he will clamp down harder on the one that remains inside

what do you think is the most likely outcome/method for dissolution of this UAR with Jordan in it?

@starman Bro you got any ideas about this

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

There was also the short lived Arab Federation between the the Kingdoms of Iraq and Jordan. It came into existence on 14th February 1958, but King Faisal II was deposed by a military coup on 14 July, and the new Iraqi government officially dissolved the Federation on 2nd August 1958.

ITTL the Jordanian monarchy was also overthrown in 1958. What were the chances of the Federation continuing ITTL? If it did my guess is that the Arab Federation would have been a Greater Iraq in all but name as Iraq had a much greater population than Jordan (6,796,490 v 755,904) in 1958.

 

[mike of mass]

If the coup transforms Jordan into Palestine the Israelis may actually be pleased with the outcome

 

[The Banker]

how would the dissolution of this 'slightly bigger UAR' work?
would Syrian and Jordanian dissidents strike at the same time with coordination or would Jordan leave after the Syrians leave?
Because imo if Nasser notices either Syria or Jordan leaving the UAR then he will clamp down harder on the one that remains inside

what do you think is the most likely outcome/method for dissolution of this UAR with Jordan in it?

anyone knows any theories for this?

 

[The Banker]

Would Israel still annex the west bank in this timeline(of Jordan becoming republic of Jordan-Palestine) in 1967 war?