My guess is Hainan. It was one of their last strongholds, falling in May of 1950. It's much less defensible than Taiwan, but if the KMT there had access to some of the resources that had been diverted towards Taiwan in OTL, perhaps they can hold out a bit longer. If so, their fortunes may change dramatically. The Korean War kicked off only a month or so later, so even a minor delay might see Hainan become a sideshow of that conflict. The PRC is going to be majorly distracted on its northeast flank and now there's going to be a lot Western soldiers and equipment moving around that part of the world, so the KMT might just be able to stick it out. That said, Hainan would be in a much riskier situation if it did survive. The PRC wouldn't need nearly the same amount of military and logistical sophistication to reconquer it. Interestingly, I do wonder if its existence would take some of the focus off Taiwan, which historically and geographically is less connected to China. Hainan might be the enough of a prize that the PRC can live with Taiwan being the one that got away.
What if Japan gets to keep Formosa after 1945? How will this affect future PRC-Japan relations?
They really have no other good choices. Kinmen is very hard to defend as well so it's the only easily feasible choice in the median scenario anyway. I agree that Taiwan wouldn't matter as much as OTL here in terms of focus...
A thought: if Taiwan didn't get the population boost that it got IOTL (roughly three million it seems fled the Chinese mainland), then perhaps we could roughly guess the Taiwanese population to be about 14 million, 10% of Tokyo's. Deduct the outmigration that it might get and it'd be roughly exactly the same. Tokyo presently has 30. If you add in the proportional block it likely has, it gets roughly nineteen members. So 49 in total. Hainan, on the other hand, would be roughly double OTL population, provided the KMT still flees there.
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If the Allies did for whatever reason let Japan keep Taiwan, even if it were to be temporarily occupied by them for at least several years, the situation in Hainan might be butterflied away (as pointed out by a few people here), at least for now at the time in 1950, and then some, like how the Parcel Islands might play into geopolitics (especially in OTL's Vietnam War where China invaded and gave it to then North Vietnam).
How would Hainan hold out though? If Hainan is the ATL equivalent of Taiwan in terms of geopolitics, then how will the KMT defend it? Hainan fell because there were already communist guerillas on the island. It was not Chinese with crude junks that made it fall.
If the KMT is holding out in Hainan, I guess the U.S. would intervene by sending a battalion of Marines to defend it from the Chinese communists. Hainan would then develop similarly to OTL Taiwan, probably becoming a democracy at some point in the 1990s.
Hainan would probably be the flashpoint of U.S.-China tensions in East Asia rather than Japanese Taiwan.
The KMT only got lucky in Kinmen because the Communist Chinese didn't have proper amphibious equipment to stage an invasion. There was one LST that managed to destroy a big portion of the invasion force and those that did land in the beaches were run over by M3 Stuart light tanks.
Here, I'm guessing Kinmen would fall because the Japan after WWII would not even think it's worth claiming it.
Things are getting interesting later by the 1980s-1990s.
The ROC in Hainan and the PRC in the mainland would probably claim Japanese Taiwan as theirs.
As for the status of Hong Kong and Macau, where will the UK and Portugal handover these territories? To ROC in Hainan or the PRC?
As for the South China Sea, Japan will probably not claim some islands. OTL Taiwan claims a part of the South China Sea islands, atolls, and reefs, but since Taiwan remains part of Japan here, Tokyo probably won't even bother to claim as long as their shipborne trade isn't affected. I am guessing ROC in Hainan would go on to claim parts of the Spratly Islands and the Paracels.
If Japanese-Chinese relations are strained, I could see Japan claiming parts of the South China Sea that are strategically relevant to the defense and support of Taiwan, if not simply to prevent China from claiming the waters as their own. I think Japanese fishing around Taiwan would be subject to a lot of the PRC's ire, similar to the situation with the Philippines IOTL. Allowing China to claim the atolls and islands around Taiwan would not only potentially put Taiwan in a precarious strategic situation if war should ever break out, but would also lend credence to the PRC's policy of extending its EEZ as far out as it can.
Overall I see China being much more aggressive with regards to the South China Sea ITTL, especially if the ROC manages to hang on in Hainan - if the PRC can control the South China Sea then they have Hainan surrounded. We'd probably see a race between the PRC and ROC to claim as much of the islets and atolls as they can.
Probably the victorious Allied Powers would apply the laws of the SCAP (Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers) to the territory of Formosa, however, the PoD or the Point of Divergence which involves the different Cairo Conference and Postdam Conference, as well as decision of the American General MacArthur to launch a military operation in 'liberating' the island and discreetly retain the island under the possession of the Japanese, even when the postwar country is under Allied occupation.
The big problems that stemmed from Chiang Kai-shek, the Generalissimo who took part in the Cairo Conference firmly advocated for an eventual return of the island, known as Taiwan or Formosa (incl. Penghu Island) back to China, since it was ceded during the First Sino-Japanese War in between 1894 to 1895 which has Qing Dynasty, the previous regime that has claims on the island along with the succeeding state like the Republic of China.
en.wikipedia.org
If Taiwan or Formosa is retained under the possession of Japan, it will require China to split up between the Communist North or reduced to Manchuria and a democratic or pro-US autocratic South, it would even lead to some consequences where people on that island are more likely to vote anti-Communist parties in the elections. Also, don't forget that Taiwan/Formosa could be a major powerhouse for the manufacturing industry, especially the semiconductor and information industry, as in terms of the economic effects if Japan retains the sovereignty or territory of the island that Formosa will be a major contributor to the economy, in part due to the said industrial sector that made up for contributions to the economy of the country.
The big problems that stemmed from Chiang Kai-shek, the Generalissimo who took part in the Cairo Conference firmly advocated for an eventual return of the island, known as Taiwan or Formosa (incl. Penghu Island) back to China, since it was ceded during the First Sino-Japanese War in between 1894 to 1895 which has Qing Dynasty, the previous regime that has claims on the island along with the succeeding state like the Republic of China.
Retrocession Day - Wikipedia
Looks like no matter what position China is (whether PRC, ROC, Qing), it's always bound for aggressive expansionism. Especially since China would rely on the coast. Just look at how the Myanmar Coup and rebel insurgency is affecting China's foothold in the Andaman Sea and the Indian Ocean.
Here, a Japanese Taiwan would even complicate things further.
With Hainan being the ROC for TTL, China would have even lesser access to the South China Sea. If this was an aggressive or belligerent PRC, I guess the handover of Hong Kong and Macau would probably go to Hainan instead.
Good points. The POD for this must be before 1943.Probably the victorious Allied Powers would apply the laws of the SCAP (Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers) to the territory of Formosa, however, the PoD or the Point of Divergence which involves the different Cairo Conference and Postdam Conference, as well as decision of the American General MacArthur to launch a military operation in 'liberating' the island and discreetly retain the island under the possession of the Japanese, even when the postwar country is under Allied occupation.
The big problems that stemmed from Chiang Kai-shek, the Generalissimo who took part in the Cairo Conference firmly advocated for an eventual return of the island, known as Taiwan or Formosa (incl. Penghu Island) back to China, since it was ceded during the First Sino-Japanese War in between 1894 to 1895 which has Qing Dynasty, the previous regime that has claims on the island along with the succeeding state like the Republic of China.
If Taiwan or Formosa is retained under the possession of Japan, it will require China to split up between the Communist North or reduced to Manchuria and a democratic or pro-US autocratic South, it would even lead to some consequences where people on that island are more likely to vote anti-Communist parties in the elections. Also, don't forget that Taiwan/Formosa could be a major powerhouse for the manufacturing industry, especially the semiconductor and information industry, as in terms of the economic effects if Japan retains the sovereignty or territory of the island that Formosa will be a major contributor to the economy, in part due to the said industrial sector that made up for contributions to the economy of the country.Retrocession Day - Wikipedia
So we have a Korea or Vietnam scenario for mainland China. This will butterfly a lot of happenings in the alternate Cold War.
This is a good scenario in the making.
I don't see the USSR getting half of Hokkaido. The U.S. would have blocked all Soviet efforts to get a piece of the Home Islands.
What about the idea of Japan being occupied while retaining control of Formosa and Pescadores islands but were split, ala Germany?
Well, maybe Ichi-go is a massive success for the Japanese and the NRA is completely broken, but the IJA is way overstreched and unable to capitalize on any gains and the CPC fills the void, by the time Japan surrenders the Chinese Civil War immediately restarts and the Communists win big and quick, so the Chinese transition in Taiwan is aborted as the KMT is unable to even organize an evacuation. Basically the Cold War in Asia begins 3-4 years earlier.
Even then I dunno how that makes Taiwan remain Japanese, the accord between the Allies was to reduce Japan to just the four home islands, not even Okinawa and the Ryukyus were kept postwar (although they were returned in the 70s), and the Truman doctrine is still 2 years away so completely breaking with wartime conventions might not be in the table, or not... too many variables.
One thing to note is that postwar the Japanese society went away from the Imperial dogma of Japan being a multicultural nation under Yamato leadership to a more self-centered "one language, one people, one nation" approach, Taiwan adds 5 million non-ethnic Japanese people into the mix.
Even then I dunno how that makes Taiwan remain Japanese, the accord between the Allies was to reduce Japan to just the four home islands, not even Okinawa and the Ryukyus were kept postwar (although they were returned in the 70s), and the Truman doctrine is still 2 years away so completely breaking with wartime conventions might not be in the table, or not... too many variables.
One thing to note is that postwar the Japanese society went away from the Imperial dogma of Japan being a multicultural nation under Yamato leadership to a more self-centered "one language, one people, one nation" approach, Taiwan adds 5 million non-ethnic Japanese people into the mix.
So that requires Operation Downfall to happen? But what happens is Formosa and Pescadores get "Taiwanised"?
My assumption was that the bulk of KMT resources being diverted to Hainan rather than Taiwan will give them the ability to drag out its defense a bit longer, possibly rolling the conflict into the Korean War, at which point I think US support would probably stabilize the situation. Frankly I think Hainan’s less defensible geographic situation is going to make it much more susceptible to some surprise conflict with the PRC down the line, so a Taiwan Strait style conflict might simply result in a rapid PRC victory and lot huffing and puffing from the US. As I mentioned, this might actually be enough of a symbolic victory, having defied Western interference and finally resolving the Cival War, that the PRC doesn’t feel pressed to resolve the dispute with Japan regarding Taiwan in as bellicose a manner.
Taiwan's going to demand independence sooner or later (considering how racist OTL Japan is to "lesser status" members of the Japanese diaspora (see treatment of Brazilian Japanese), Okinawese (sp). If Taiwan is very lucky, they'll get the treatment of Ainu or resident Koreans (I say resident since a good deal of Koreans in Japan, IIRC, are not Japanese nationals). And there is the issue of an ethnically Japanese upper class/elite hogging up resources and opportunities on Japan)
If Japan is smart, they let Taiwan split off in a referendum. If they're not, then we end up with a separatist movement (which ironically the PRC would probably arm and train).
If Japan is smart, they let Taiwan split off in a referendum. If they're not, then we end up with a separatist movement (which ironically the PRC would probably arm and train).
The UK and Portugal could try, but then those territories promptly find their water supplies cut off by the PRC. And they are not very defensible in military terms.
Sargon
The People's Republic of China would make anti-Japanese foreign policy the axis of its foreign policy, in the same way that they demand that the Republic of China not be recognized in Taiwan.
We can expect PRC to try to use financial threats "either you say Taiwan is China or you can say goodbye to accessing our markets."
Which of course would end in the fact that starting in 1980 the United States aligned itself with China and began to pressure Japan to "return" Taiwan to the PRC in the name of accessing the rich Chinese markets.
Given that at this time anyway the United States was suffering a virulent streak of anti-Japanese racism, in the name of the unfounded belief that Japan was "economically colonizing" the country, this abrupt turn in foreign policy would be supported by the majority of the American population.
Ironically we could see the European Allies (Britain) be against this (if China manages to get Taiwan returned to Japan, there is no doubt that they and Hong Kong will be next).
Alternatively, London makes a deal with DC: Britain will back the US and China in their plan to force Japan to hand over Taiwan to China... in exchange for China stopping pushing for Hong Kong to be returned to it.
We can expect PRC to try to use financial threats "either you say Taiwan is China or you can say goodbye to accessing our markets."
Which of course would end in the fact that starting in 1980 the United States aligned itself with China and began to pressure Japan to "return" Taiwan to the PRC in the name of accessing the rich Chinese markets.
Given that at this time anyway the United States was suffering a virulent streak of anti-Japanese racism, in the name of the unfounded belief that Japan was "economically colonizing" the country, this abrupt turn in foreign policy would be supported by the majority of the American population.
Ironically we could see the European Allies (Britain) be against this (if China manages to get Taiwan returned to Japan, there is no doubt that they and Hong Kong will be next).
Alternatively, London makes a deal with DC: Britain will back the US and China in their plan to force Japan to hand over Taiwan to China... in exchange for China stopping pushing for Hong Kong to be returned to it.
One reason to allow Japan to keep Farmosa would be a larger fear of the communists and so the need to creat a stronger buffer. (possibly the battles in Okinawa and the like end sooner).
However with Japanese Farmosa there will inevitably be a larger presence of American's in general. This means if the KMT can organize and get American direct support we could see the formation of the Guangdong-Hinan state in south china. The Communist facing the threat of more direct American involvment for the future.
Assuming not much else changes Geo-politically...
Well This Japan is going to be far more active in Asia and possibly even no artical 7 especially after the PRC becomes a huge threat. Japans economy and worldwide engagement will be larger with a larger population. I think the lost decades will be butterflied away.
Its possible the PRC could invade the ROC across their land boarder now but that would probably cause a conventional ww3.
However with Japanese Farmosa there will inevitably be a larger presence of American's in general. This means if the KMT can organize and get American direct support we could see the formation of the Guangdong-Hinan state in south china. The Communist facing the threat of more direct American involvment for the future.
Assuming not much else changes Geo-politically...
Well This Japan is going to be far more active in Asia and possibly even no artical 7 especially after the PRC becomes a huge threat. Japans economy and worldwide engagement will be larger with a larger population. I think the lost decades will be butterflied away.
Its possible the PRC could invade the ROC across their land boarder now but that would probably cause a conventional ww3.
This is an overworked and over-elaborate way to throw shade on real American racism and imperialism and to overestimate to the rooted depth and inevitability of modern-day PRC nationalist propaganda. The CCP didn't assert with any certainty that Taiwan was Chinese until after the world powers by consensus, and pushing by Chiang's regime, said it was so. If the Allies stiff-armed Chiang on this question at Cairo, there's no guarantee Taiwan becomes the North Star of a postwar Chinese Communist foreign policy.