What if Japan forgoes China and instead goes for the European colonies in 1940?
- Thread starter Lee-Sensei
- Start date
Part of the entire point of going for the European colonies was so that Japan could continue fighting China.
Of course. It also meant a 3 year build up to American sanctions. If they go for the European colonies first, they'd get the resources they need for their war with China at a later date.
RousseauX
Donor
Japan has already being at war with China since 1937, and fighting in China since 1931.
How does it forgoe China?
Just to add to these. It is not impossible for Japan to forgo China. But you need an earlier PoD than 1940. With PoD 1940, this already impossible due Japan being already in China.
By not invading in 1937? In this scenarios they stay out of China and invade the European colonies in 1940.
Which ones? Serious question, because if you are talking DEI then they are going to go to war with the USA. The Philippines present an unacceptable obstacle sitting on the Japanese supply lines to Indonesia. It would depend how the Japanese stay out if China, the militarists were pretty Hellbent on puppetizing or colonizing the Chinese mainland.
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I thought it was pretty obvious what you meant from the beginning.
This doesn't make sense- Japan did not invade Indochina, and occupy some of Indochina between September 1940 through May 1944 without having a land connection between their Chinese and Indochinese fronts.
Shipborne forces occupied Indochina. Taiwan was a sufficiently close base. After the fall of metropolitan France, French Indochina wasn't in a position to resist.
It creates a tangle of geopolitical friction but may not make such a fight a foregone conclusion, at least not in Japanese minds. Without the war fighting in China there will not have been substantial western sanctions or even much rage at Japan built up. Occupying French Indochina wouldn't involve any bloodshed, and the Japanese could also try to intimidate the Dutch.
Pretty hard. The war with China was the main reason for the Pacific War (Japan needed oil), and the reason for the war with China in 1937 was the conquest of Manchuria in 1931. So the problem goes back a long ways.
One possibility is for the Manchuria incident (or an alternate version of this incident) to develop into an all-out war with a China that is even weaker due to less political unity or military-industrial might. This was before the Sino-German cooperation after all. Anyway, the results of this war could be a disaster for China, and very well force the KMT to accept the loss of Manchuria.
But Chinese nationalist sentiment will not be amused, and by the latter half of the 1930s we start seeing a rather militantly anti-Japanese administration take the reins. By 1940, seeing that the Chinese aren't simply going to behave, the Japanese navy develops their "Strike south" idea as IOTL, which they intend to carry out in order to gain a better position with which to dominate and check China indirectly.
Since the Philippines are in the way of whatever the Japanese would try to take, the US probably still goes to war.
One possibility is for the Manchuria incident (or an alternate version of this incident) to develop into an all-out war with a China that is even weaker due to less political unity or military-industrial might. This was before the Sino-German cooperation after all. Anyway, the results of this war could be a disaster for China, and very well force the KMT to accept the loss of Manchuria.
But Chinese nationalist sentiment will not be amused, and by the latter half of the 1930s we start seeing a rather militantly anti-Japanese administration take the reins. By 1940, seeing that the Chinese aren't simply going to behave, the Japanese navy develops their "Strike south" idea as IOTL, which they intend to carry out in order to gain a better position with which to dominate and check China indirectly.
Since the Philippines are in the way of whatever the Japanese would try to take, the US probably still goes to war.