What if Italy knocked out of WW II before invasion of Greece?

[ejpsan]

While it is very near impossible for this to happen, what if Italy is defeated in North Africa and East Africa before the planned invasion of Greece in October 1940?
Would Mussolini been able to keep power?
Would the invasion of Greece still happen?
I don't think that Italy would have been able to make a formal peace with Great Britain without Germany moving in, I do think that they could make an informal agreement to cease hostilities against the Allies.
If this happens, now does this affect Greece and Bulgaria?

 

[thaddeus]

thought it was the one-two of Egypt and Greece that diminished Mussolini? so if the invasion of Greece is canceled or postponed he is in (relatively) better position?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

While it is very near impossible for this to happen, what if Italy is defeated in North Africa and East Africa before the planned invasion of Greece in October 1940?...

Mussolini is weakend, even if not replaced. Lybia and the east African colonies at risk of loss so quickly would wake up the other Italian leaders.

...I don't think that Italy would have been able to make a formal peace with Great Britain without Germany moving in, I do think that they could make an informal agreement to cease hostilities against the Allies. ...

Germany was wholly unprepared to 'move in' to Italy. Organizing that would probably delay war with the USSR a year. However the Germans had zero interest in supporting Italy militarily in the summer & early autumn of 1940. There was considerable debate among the leaders and Hitler waffled on the issue until early 1941. He'd probably shrug since any Italian/Brit peace at this time would not involve any Brit armies any nearer Germany, and a neutral Italy would be of economic benefit to Germany.

...If this happens, now does this affect Greece and Bulgaria?

They continue as neutrals.

 

[thaddeus]

Mussolini is weakend, even if not replaced. Lybia and the east African colonies at risk of loss so quickly would wake up the other Italian leaders.

Germany was wholly unprepared to 'move in' to Italy. Organizing that would probably delay war with the USSR a year. However the Germans had zero interest in supporting Italy militarily in the summer & early autumn of 1940. There was considerable debate among the leaders and Hitler waffled on the issue until early 1941. He'd probably shrug since any Italian/Brit peace at this time would not involve any Brit armies any nearer Germany, and a neutral Italy would be of economic benefit to Germany.

the easiest way to be defeated earlier to start earlier? the planned July 15th date? (or Aug. 15th also schemed after Balbo's death) even then (if operations closely track historical events) the Greek invasion would occur?

have always wondered about timing of Taranto raid, that for political reasons they might have wanted to strike Italy instead of successive raids against the French (Mers-el-Kebir, Dakar.) THAT might have stalled any invasion of Greece? not wanting to risk any more ships.

 

[thaddeus]

While it is very near impossible for this to happen, what if Italy is defeated in North Africa and East Africa before the planned invasion of Greece in October 1940?

If this happens, now does this affect Greece and Bulgaria?

They continue as neutrals.

you do not think Crete too tempting for UK? IF they knocked Italy out.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

If Italy is defeated the Brits can add Rhoades to their collection. It is just as useful as Crete.

 

[thaddeus]

you do not think Crete too tempting for UK? IF they knocked Italy out.

If Italy is defeated the Brits can add Rhoades to their collection. It is just as useful as Crete.

thanks for pointing that out, UK could occupy Dodecanese "until the end of conflict" and nothing Germans could do about it unless they invade Greece as first step?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

.., UK could occupy Dodecanese "until the end of conflict" and nothing Germans could do about it unless they invade Greece as first step?

Or some how bring Turkey in as a friend or for.

 

[thaddeus]

thanks for pointing that out, UK could occupy Dodecanese "until the end of conflict" and nothing Germans could do about it unless they invade Greece as first step?

Or some how bring Turkey in as a friend or for.

Turkey was a determined neutral, which ended up serving Germany fairly well? (and of course they have no easy land route) If Italy has not invaded Greece, but still withdraws from the war, guess most likely course as you said, just ignore (any) British move on Dodecanese?

my speculation was more centered around Italy in middle of Greek invasion (in actuality stalled in Albania), their collapse in North Africa leads them to topple Mussolini, Germany forced to act (per historical) since the UK is in Greece?