What If Hitler Was Captured by the Soviets in 1943?

[27zipski]

I'm sure many of you have seen this video:

.

What do you think the consequences would've been if Hitler actually was killed/ captured on that day? A power struggle in Germany this early would be really interesting since the major players would be caught totally off guard and most of them hadn't really started scheming yet. The leadership that eventually emerges will of course make different strategic choices, which would radically alter the course of the war and likely the shape of postwar Europe. Any thoughts?

 

[Gar48]

Well, Goering is the most likely candidate as he was Hitler's designated successor untile the last months of the war in OTL.

I can see him being a bit more pragmatic than Adolf regarding the war, namely listening to the German generals more and not pushing for the army to be on a constant offensive. However this will delay the German defeat at best.

By 1943 Germany has already lost against Russia and losing ground in Italy. Hitler's death or worse yet capture at the hands of the Soviets will also damage the morale of the German troops similarly to what happened in OTL after Adolf's suicide.

Also before people ask: no, there is no way Goering will be able to make peace with the Western Allies. If he tries, he will have to deal with the SS and other members of the German government who oppose the idea. If he is not immediately overthrown by said elements, it is unlikely the Western Allies (especially the US) will accept a peace deal now that they know the German war effort has been irremediably damaged

 

[David T]

I started a thread on that in soc.history.what-if many years ago: https://soc.history.what-if.narkive...d-or-captured-by-red-army-february-1943#post1

 

[Deleted member 2186]

I'm sure many of you have seen this video:

.

What do you think the consequences would've been if Hitler actually was killed/ captured on that day? A power struggle in Germany this early would be really interesting since the major players would be caught totally off guard and most of them hadn't really started scheming yet. The leadership that eventually emerges will of course make different strategic choices, which would radically alter the course of the war and likely the shape of postwar Europe. Any thoughts?

I assume he like Himmler has a false teeth filled with potassium cyanide.

 

[starman]

By 1943 Germany has already lost against Russia

Manstein wouldn't have said so, prior to Kursk. Given more freedom of action he might've pulled back to the Dneiper and smashed a Soviet offensive, perhaps leading to a negotiated settlement.

and losing ground in Italy. Hitler's death or worse yet capture at the hands of the Soviets will also damage the morale of the German troops similarly to what happened in OTL after Adolf's suicide.

By the time the Germans knew of Adolf's suicide--around May 1, 1945--the reich was overrun anyway.

Also before people ask: no, there is no way Goering will be able to make peace with the Western Allies. If he tries, he will have to deal with the SS and other members of the German government who oppose the idea.

I don't think the SS would've stood in the way of peace with the western allies. They had a problem with the so called untermenschen in the east.

it is unlikely the Western Allies (especially the US) will accept a peace deal now that they know the German war effort has been irremediably damaged

Irremediably damaged by the overthrow of Adolf with his brilliant decision making?

 

[Cudymcar]

Manstein wouldn't have said so, prior to Kursk. Given more freedom of action he might've pulled back to the Dneiper and smashed a Soviet offensive, perhaps leading to a negotiated settlement.

Verlorene Siege is unfounded self-gratification.

 

[Gar48]

By the time the Germans knew of Adolf's suicide--around May 1, 1945--the reich was overrun anyway.

Adolf Hitler made sure the entire Nazi regime was based around his cult of personality. Most of the German citiziens had come to believe that as long as he was in charge of the country, the war could have been won.

Immagine their reaction if he got killed or captured by the Untermensch.

leading to a negotiated settlement.

Why would the Soviets do this? OTL they had already tried this before 1943 and failed . ITTL the side of the war is turning and they have just obtained an extremly important victory for their morale and propaganda.

Manstein wouldn't have said so, prior to Kursk

Mainstein said a lot of things, like many other German generals after the war. The real question is how many of them were true.

You know what's important for a war besides a good strategy? Resources and industry for your armies. The Soviets had all of these things while the Germans barely had the first one (of course even this is up to debate)

It doesn't matter how many times Manstein can repel a Soviet attack. At the end of the day he will run out of fuel and ammunition thanks to the already existing shortages and the fact the British and the Americans are bombing the crap out of the Reich.

The Soviet on the other hand are still recieving the American land-lase

I don't think the SS would've stood in the way of peace with the western allies. They had a problem with the so called untermenschen in the east.

I mean this is kinda the problem. They don't want peace with the Soviets. They want to see the very idea of Russia wiped out.

The Soviet Union is one of the principal members of the Allies and I doubt Moscow will accept the kind of peace offered by the SS

 

[The Ranger]

Hitler woulds have an enforced appointment with a public gallows on Red Square.

 

[CalBear]

Hitler woulds have an enforced appointment with a public gallows on Red Square.

Possibly.

Stalin had a REALLY vicious streak. I could absolutely see Stalin and Beria putting him on display in Red Square for a few months while making sure he couldn't kill himself. Set up a tour where Soviet citizens could come by and "see the face of evil".

At least in this scenario Eva Braun (who has always struck me as Useful Idiot 1 each") doesn't wind up in Beria's hands. which os a common problem with the Soviets capturing him in the Berlin Bunker.

 

[Aubreyyy]

Possibly.

Stalin had a REALLY vicious streak. I could absolutely see Stalin and Beria putting him on display in Red Square for a few months while making sure he couldn't kill himself. Set up a tour where Soviet citizens could come by and "see the face of evil".

At least in this scenario Eva Braun (who has always struck me as Useful Idiot 1 each") doesn't wind up in Beria's hands. which os a common problem with the Soviets capturing him in the Berlin Bunker.

Does hitler even last a few months in red square without being assassinated by someone who lost family? Could see it being like the assassination of Talaat Pasha where everyone just kinda shrugs their shoulders and says they cant blame the assassin afterwards too and they get off free

 

[torten]

No doubt the Nazis will try and launch some utterly suidical rescue mission if they find out where their Fuhrer is held.

I put the chances of success as somewhere below 0%.

And that's if Hitler doesn't commit suicide just before he is captured, which is an strong possibility.

 

[The Tai-Pan]

Possibly.

Stalin had a REALLY vicious streak. I could absolutely see Stalin and Beria putting him on display in Red Square for a few months while making sure he couldn't kill himself. Set up a tour where Soviet citizens could come by and "see the face of evil".

At least in this scenario Eva Braun (who has always struck me as Useful Idiot 1 each") doesn't wind up in Beria's hands. which os a common problem with the Soviets capturing him in the Berlin Bunker.

Stalin would love to put Hitler in an iron cage and display him, but the risk of rescue or suicide or whatever is probably too high. he'd probably be killed before even getting to Moscow.

 

[Jonah Carter]

My guess is that Hitler gets dragged back to Moscow, immediately put on trial, found guilty of practically every crime in the book, and publicly hanged. After all, Stalin loved a good show trial, and this one has the added bonus of the defendant actually being guilty.

As for the impact on the wider war, the obvious issue is that there's now a huge power vacuum with nobody really positioned to exploit it. As with any Hitler death scenario, I think the main issue for succession is that practically every member of the Nazi hierarchy hated each other and had little popular base. To me, the most likely outcome is probably the military putting a more traditional conservative in power then trying to cut a deal with the Western Allies. By 1943, I don't think anyone in America or Britain is willing to cut a deal, so the only long-term effect is that Germany is brought down slightly ahead of schedule thanks to the instability.

 

[BELFAST]

Who every is the leader in Germany after Hitler they are in a no-win scenario and start looking for a peace deal.
Germany would be dealing with a relative position of strength compared to OTL in 1945.
if Germany surrenders in 1943 how is Europe dived in 1943 compared to 1945?
Will there be a race between the allies and the soviets to take as much ground as possible?

 

[pattersonautobody]

Well, it's unlikely would let himself be taken alive honestly.

In any event, no Hitler in Feb 1943 pretty much guarantees mushroom clouds over Italy because the power vacuum will butterfly away Kursk and likely Germans would withdraw in good order to the Dnieper to the Panter-wotan line. After that, a withdraw back to the Carpathians is largely possible. This keeps Axis minor allies in the war about six more months. And so, this means the Wallies advance into Germany first, which leads to a mass German withdrawal from the East, and the war ends about 4-5 months later than OTL.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Mainstein said a lot of things, like many other German generals after the war. The real question is how many of them were true.

Not to mention, Manstein was at that same meeting. He may very well be captured or dead right alongside Hitler. The decapitation of both AGS and OKH command - not just in terms of the leaders themselves but also their headquarters staff - would derail the entire counter-offensive that resulted in 3rd Kharkov and lead to the Soviets crushing the bulk of AGS against the Sea of Azov. The Soviets would thus end the winter campaign season of 1942/43 in control of all of Eastern Ukraine and with major bridgeheads over the D'niepr.

In any event, no Hitler in Feb 1943 pretty much guarantees mushroom clouds over Italy because the power vacuum will butterfly away Kursk and likely Germans would withdraw in good order to the Dnieper to the Panter-wotan line. After that, a withdraw back to the Carpathians is largely possible. This keeps Axis minor allies in the war about six more months.

The often posited post-war preference for a defensive war in mid-'43 relies on the assumption that the Germans retained an operational superiority they rather manifestly did not have by mid-'43. If the Germans withdraw to the Panther-Wotan Line months ahead of time, then that means the Soviets have that many additional more months to crack it, not to mention additional manpower resources from both lack of casualties and recovery of territory as well as the ability to begin restoration of Eastern Ukraines mines and industries further ahead of time. That's not going to lead to the Soviet advance slowing or the Axis minor allies being in the war longer...

In any case, the idea that there was a widespread preference for a defensive stand amongst the German generals in mid-'43 is ahistoric. The primary debate amongst them even at the time was not whether to defend or attack, but where to attack.

 

[Gillan1220]

Hitler gets paraded in Red Square before being publicly executed.

 

[Captain Homicide]

The primary debate amongst them even at the time was not whether to defend or attack, but where to attack.

What targets were they divided over?

 

[ObssesedNuker]

What targets were they divided over?

Kursk was obviously the big, glaring one because of that blatant salient, but alternative ideas that were variously floated were against the Kupyansk direction (to the southeast of Kursk), towards Sukhinchi (north of the Orel salient), and even trying to reseal and destroy Leningrad.

 

[27zipski]

Thanks for the interesting responses everyone. Hilter's control of the Wermacht was so consolidated by this point that his removal would effectively decapitate its decision making capability, at least for a time. Remember that there will also be power struggles within the Army, though probably not as severe as the one in Berlin. The "resistance" officers (von Treskow, etc) will likely try to take advantage of the chaos and make a move at the least.

This probably speeds up the overall Russian advance to some degree, and the iron curtain would likely end up somewhat further west than OTL, perhaps with Yugoslavia, Austria, Bavaria, or even Denmark in the Soviet sphere.

I think there's even an outside but nonzero chance that the German war machine pretty much collapses entirely, in which case all bets are off and the likelihood of Western-Soviet conflict begins to inch up as something of a "scramble for Europe" develops.