What if Hitler vetoed Operation Citadel

[Vera Strawberry]

While it's often been claimed that Germany lost World War II because of Hitler's interference in military planning and he should've left things to his generals, the reality was more complicated than that. There were times when Hitler was right and his generals were wrong, and one of these times was Operation Citadel, which started the famous Battle of Kursk. Hitler had severe reservations about the plan, even commenting that thinking about it made him sick to his stomach, but reluctantly approved it... and it was a major Soviet strategic victory, validating Hitler's misgivings.

So what if Hitler had trusted his instincts and refused to give the green light?

 

[GG2021]

While it's often been claimed that Germany lost World War II because of Hitler's interference in military planning and he should've left things to his generals, the reality was more complicated than that. There were times when Hitler was right and his generals were wrong, and one of these times was Operation Citadel, which started the famous Battle of Kursk. Hitler had severe reservations about the plan, even commenting that thinking about it made him sick to his stomach, but reluctantly approved it... and it was a major Soviet strategic victory, validating Hitler's misgivings.

So what if Hitler had trusted his instincts and refused to give the green light?

(Mere conjecture here.)

Hitler orders in a rare moment of military genius and not-so-rare sadisitic evil, "Return our Eastern Front in an orderly fashion to the Baltics and Eastern Poland. Keep the Atlantic Wall ready in Northern France. Abandon Italy and Yugoslavia and see to it that Austria, Hungary, and French Savoy are secured. If France and the Low Countries fall, we can set up a Western front of trench warfare to bleed the British and Americans dry, or at least force them into a separate peace while we keep the Soviets at bay, and destroy all Soviet industry as you retreat. Do not stop for political or racial cleansings.

Also, instead of exterminating the Jews in the camps, put rifles in the hands of all the fighting age Jewish males and see if they can earn their freedom by fighting for their lives on the Eastern Front. As for the Jewish women, we can simply do to them what their men had in mind for us and breed Europe free of Jews. The girls born of such unions will be adopted into loyal families and instructed to become courtesans for party men and other loyal Germans when they come of age. As for the boys, we can make slaves or soldiers of them. Those half-breeds who survive, well, we can send them to Palestine I suppose once they get old and weary. and are no longer useful to us."

 

[Captain Homicide]

Hitler orders in a rare moment of military genius and not-so-rare sadisitic evil, "Return our Eastern Front in an orderly fashion to the Baltics and Eastern Poland. Keep the Atlantic Wall ready in Northern France. Abandon Italy and Yugoslavia and see to it that Austria, Hungary, and French Savoy are secured. If France and the Low Countries fall, we can set up a Western front of trench warfare to bleed the British and Americans dry, or at least force them into a separate peace while we keep the Soviets at bay, and destroy all Soviet industry as you retreat. Do not stop for political or racial cleansings.

Also, instead of exterminating the Jews in the camps, put rifles in the hands of all the fighting age Jewish males and see if they can earn their freedom by fighting for their lives on the Eastern Front. As for the Jewish women, we can simply do to them what their men had in mind for us and breed Europe free of Jews. The girls born of such unions will be adopted into loyal families and instructed to become courtesans for party men and other loyal Germans when they come of age. As for the boys, we can make slaves or soldiers of them. Those half-breeds who survive, well, we can send them to Palestine I suppose once they get old and weary. and are no longer useful to us."

Hitler wouldn’t do any of this when Germany is still in a relative position of strength especially the part about stopping the Holocaust. If he did he wouldn’t be Hitler and the events of the war wouldn’t have transpired the way they did up to that point to begin with.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

While it's often been claimed that Germany lost World War II because of Hitler's interference in military planning and he should've left things to his generals, the reality was more complicated than that. There were times when Hitler was right and his generals were wrong, and one of these times was Operation Citadel, which started the famous Battle of Kursk. Hitler had severe reservations about the plan, even commenting that thinking about it made him sick to his stomach, but reluctantly approved it... and it was a major Soviet strategic victory, validating Hitler's misgivings.

So what if Hitler had trusted his instincts and refused to give the green light?

Germans survive on the east front another 3-6 months (assuming more troops aren't sent west) and Wallies seriously consider making a grab for Berlin.

 

[GG2021]

Hitler wouldn’t do any of this when Germany is still in a relative position of strength especially the part about stopping the Holocaust. If he did he wouldn’t be Hitler and the events of the war wouldn’t have transpired the way they did up to that point to begin with.

This would still be a Holocaust, just by different means. I was just conjecturing that maybe in this situation Hitler might on a whim see how truly tenuous the position is.

 

[TheDeveloper]

(Mere conjecture here.)

Hitler orders in a rare moment of military genius and not-so-rare sadisitic evil, "Return our Eastern Front in an orderly fashion to the Baltics and Eastern Poland. Keep the Atlantic Wall ready in Northern France. Abandon Italy and Yugoslavia and see to it that Austria, Hungary, and French Savoy are secured. If France and the Low Countries fall, we can set up a Western front of trench warfare to bleed the British and Americans dry, or at least force them into a separate peace while we keep the Soviets at bay, and destroy all Soviet industry as you retreat. Do not stop for political or racial cleansings.

Also, instead of exterminating the Jews in the camps, put rifles in the hands of all the fighting age Jewish males and see if they can earn their freedom by fighting for their lives on the Eastern Front. As for the Jewish women, we can simply do to them what their men had in mind for us and breed Europe free of Jews. The girls born of such unions will be adopted into loyal families and instructed to become courtesans for party men and other loyal Germans when they come of age. As for the boys, we can make slaves or soldiers of them. Those half-breeds who survive, well, we can send them to Palestine I suppose once they get old and weary. and are no longer useful to us."

So Hitler just decided not to be Hitler?

 

[CB13]

JMHO, but I think that would require a significant brain injury to Hitler to occur. The man was fixated on "being on the attack" (his adamant use of the Me262 in the ground attack role is a perfect example of that).

The only things that I think may forstall the OTL Citadel are:
1. Someone tells him if he waits, more of his wonder weapons Panthers and Tigers will be ready for the attack which will make it an even greater victory
2. Someone proposes an even bigger Citadel that goes wider and deeper to try to get all the way behind the Kursk Bulge's fortifications and minefields.
3. Or a combination of both....

Bottom Line is I think the only way for Hitler to avoid OTL Citadel, is if someone brings him an even bigger alternative. So it must be more aggressive, not less.

 

[GG2021]

So Hitler just decided not to be Hitler?

He's still Hitler, he just had the mother of all brain-farts and decided to put it into action is all. If that's to close to ASB for you, I'm happy to leave it at that and move on.

 

[Post]

While it's often been claimed that Germany lost World War II because of Hitler's interference in military planning and he should've left things to his generals, the reality was more complicated than that. There were times when Hitler was right and his generals were wrong, and one of these times was Operation Citadel, which started the famous Battle of Kursk. Hitler had severe reservations about the plan, even commenting that thinking about it made him sick to his stomach, but reluctantly approved it... and it was a major Soviet strategic victory, validating Hitler's misgivings.

I'm not sure this is what actually happened. AFAIK Von Manstein wanted a mobile defence and Hitler wanted to attack. The Kursk salient was chosen because it was the most obvious place shortening the front. Which was also what the Russians reasoned.

Also Hitler wanted to wait for the new Panthertanks to use them in the battle, postponing the offensive several times.

Edit: his comment about his stomach turning was made to Guderian when the latter asked why Hitler wanted to attack at all. But Hitler still insisted.

 

[Vabasion]

Stop the Soviets with what? Pulling back doesn’t magic fuel into existence. There’s no way to defend forever. Abandoning Italy and Yugoslavia creates dangerous southern fronts. Trench warfare with what feed and industry when you’re in range of allied bombers everywhere including Romanian oil fields and synthetic refineries.

Vetoing Citadel could prolong the war slightly. But that’s about the extent of it.

 

[Ambusher11]

This would still be a Holocaust, just by different means. I was just conjecturing that maybe in this situation Hitler might on a whim see how truly tenuous the position is.

If anything, Hitler if he saw the situation as more tenuous would likely dial up the mass murder and terror even further. Hitler was continuing the Holocaust after 1942 not just because of his vitriolic antisemitism and destructive impulses, he was also continuing it since, from his POV, further increasing the mass murder and terror looked like the best way to prevent the German "bloc" from disintegrating.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Leaving aside the Notzi/Notler elements....

How would a defensive stance on the Eastern Front have worked out?

 

[TDM]

While it's often been claimed that Germany lost World War II because of Hitler's interference in military planning and he should've left things to his generals, the reality was more complicated than that. There were times when Hitler was right and his generals were wrong, and one of these times was Operation Citadel, which started the famous Battle of Kursk. Hitler had severe reservations about the plan, even commenting that thinking about it made him sick to his stomach, but reluctantly approved it... and it was a major Soviet strategic victory, validating Hitler's misgivings.

So what if Hitler had trusted his instincts and refused to give the green light?

problem is on the face of it attacking and defeating the red army at Kursk potentially ticks too many boxes on the German check list for them not to do it:

1). A decisive engagement that puts the German army back on the front foot which is where it needs to be to achieve any of its war aims.

2). Allows them to utilize the German offensive ability and advantages to carve into an apparently badly positioned more static enemy

2). It's a way out of a war of attrition with the USSR. that is already 18 months behind schedule and showing no other likely routes to victory

3). Ending the threat in the east in 1943 allows them to bolster the west where clearly the wallies are making moves.

4). It's the old Barbarossa plan find and defeat the Red army anyway, and the Red army has apparently obliged.

5). A proper decisive head to head of ideologies made flesh, crank up the Wagner and demonstrate Nazi/aryian superiority over judeao-boshevism, now the enemy has stopped lurking behind logistics issues, urban warfare and winter. After all the German army was able to destroy massive Red army formations out in the open in 1941 whenever they met them by being better right?

Of course it's not 1941 it's 1943, the red army isn't the red army of 1941 and neither is the German army it's 1941 self



But the main issue with Hitler vetoing it is what else are they going to do? If you've invaded a country and can't fight it's army, what's your plan?

Unless Hitler thinks he can arrange a better situation to defeat the Read Army in than the one presented at Kursk the future is just more of the same as has been happening, them getting slowly pushed out of the territory they took in 1941 by attrition. All the while the US is ramping up mobilization and resources, the bombing campaign over Germany is increasing and in July the wallies will have invaded Sicily and pretty soon after that Italy and so on.

So the real question isn't just "what if Hitler vetoes Citadel?",

it's:

what would he veto it in favor of that at the time of the decision would look better for him than Citadel

 

[TDM]

(Mere conjecture here.)

Hitler orders in a rare moment of military genius and not-so-rare sadisitic evil, "Return our Eastern Front in an orderly fashion to the Baltics and Eastern Poland. Keep the Atlantic Wall ready in Northern France. Abandon Italy and Yugoslavia and see to it that Austria, Hungary, and French Savoy are secured. If France and the Low Countries fall, we can set up a Western front of trench warfare to bleed the British and Americans dry, or at least force them into a separate peace while we keep the Soviets at bay, and destroy all Soviet industry as you retreat. Do not stop for political or racial cleansings.

Hitler like many national leaders of WW2 will not want a return to WW1 static trench fighting. He can't afford the men it would take plus he already knows Germany loses that fight. Plus tactics have already moved on by 1943. Germany is not the only country that can use Blitzkrieg/penetration tactics and the Axis have already lost air superiority over the western occupied territories by this point. Basically Defensive lines against flamethrower tanks and under enemy air superiority while armored and mechanized forces marauder behind you will not be fun.

Abandoning Italy will likely mean Italy swapping sides (either under Il Duce or otherwise)

There is no more Soviet industry in German occupied areas to destroy

There is no proof they can keep the soviets at bay especially not when also fighting a bloody defensive war against the wallies in the West

Also, instead of exterminating the Jews in the camps, put rifles in the hands of all the fighting age Jewish males and see if they can earn their freedom by fighting for their lives on the Eastern Front.

There is just no way Ideologically Hitler will do this, moreover it's very unlikely the Jewish chaps in question will go along with it in earnest (might well wait to get their hands on some weapons though) you will need to designate other troops to keep an eye on them and that leaving aside the state your new soldiers will be in after "living" in your camps. Just go with the Volksturm.

As for the Jewish women, we can simply do to them what their men had in mind for us and breed Europe free of Jews. The girls born of such unions will be adopted into loyal families and instructed to become courtesans for party men and other loyal Germans when they come of age. As for the boys, we can make slaves or soldiers of them. Those half-breeds who survive, well, we can send them to Palestine I suppose once they get old and weary. and are no longer useful to us."

This was already discussed and dismissed as an option by the Nazis, also it does nothing to help the German situation anyway

 

[TDM]

Leaving aside the Notzi/Notler elements....

How would a defensive stance on the Eastern Front have worked out?

The problem is unless they fall back a long way their defensive line will still be very long meaning it will be thin.

This actaully brings a new logistics problem that's sort of different from the previously seen ones when the Germans are attacking. In that while its obviously easier to run logistics to static defensive positions especially if they're now closer to your factories and infrastructure hubs than you were previously, but if you are manning a defensive line that stretches from the Baltic to the Black sea that is still a lot of ground your logistics has to cover to supply all of it!

It also means giving up the initiative to the soviets who can now concentrate force and push where they like. The Soviets will be helped by the fact that it's not 1914-17 it's 1943-44 and they will be doing this facilitated with a million 2-1/2 ton trucks, Jeeps and 10,000's of T34's not the marching infantry armies and horse draw wagon trains of WW1

That defensive long line will certainly allow the Germans to conserve troops from loses, but that won't help them is those troops are safely holding the line in Riga and Odessa but the Red army is punching holes through the line at Minsk.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

@TDM My thoughts too but i wonder if any of the strategy's advocates has thought it through or gamed it out. Might there be an article on the topic in a military history journal?

 

[TDM]

@TDM My thoughts too but i wonder if any of the strategy's advocates has thought it through or gamed it out. Might there be an article on the topic in a military history journal?

Ah that I don't know, sorry!

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

Ah that I don't know, sorry!

No problem, i can search for these sometime.

I just have problems seeing how a "flexible defence" strategy would work out. Given the lack of mobility of ~80% of the German army on the Eastern Front, most of it can't retreat fast enough to stay ahead a major offensive. So even if Manstein's counterstroke is repeated, the Germans still have difficulty forming a new front line.

Retreating early just concedes territory and resources. Where is a line that could be held with breakthroughs successfully repelled?

 

[TDM]

No problem, i can search for these sometime.

I just have problems seeing how a "flexible defence" strategy would work out. Given the lack of mobility of ~80% of the German army on the Eastern Front, most of it can't retreat fast enough to stay ahead a major offensive. So even if Manstein's counterstroke is repeated, the Germans still have difficulty forming a new front line.

I agree, and frankly I suspect the Red army in 1943 onward can absorb any loses from a backhand blow and just keep rolling (which is basically what they did anyway after Kursk).

Also even if the pace of teh red army advance slows compared to 1943-1944 that's only going to help their logistics issues which were often their greatest constraining factor anyway!

Retreating early just concedes territory and resources. Where is a line that could be held with breakthroughs successfully repelled?

Yep, an earlier post was talking about retreating back to Poland and drawing the line there. Only as 1941 showed there is no great defensive Bulwark to build a line on, and frankly if they do that then why did they bother go East at all?!

 

[ordinarylittleme]

This would still be a Holocaust, just by different means. I was just conjecturing that maybe in this situation Hitler might on a whim see how truly tenuous the position is.

This is Holocaust BUT it won't be seen as "quite" so bad since there is no direct order of assassination
(Yes it is horrific either way to wipe out an entire group of people's lives)