What if Gerald Ford had won in 1976?

[Masteroftheuniverse]

Given how close the election was I'm surprised that Ford winning hasn't been brought up more often. Any number of POD's could give him a boost -for instance if he hadn't pardoned Nixon or if he'd avoided his "soviet domination" gaffe. So suppose things had gone a little better for him and he'd won a narrow but real victory in the election (although he might end up losing the popular vote,W style). What happens next?

I'm inclined to think that his second term wouldn't be a very happy one. All the issues that plagued Carter -stagflation,Iran etc. had their roots before then , although I suppose there is the possibility that Ford might be able to deal with them better. He'll also have something of an image problem- his most distinguishing feature is falling down the stairs that one time. In any case ,given the trouble he had securing the nomination in 76 I doubt he'd seek another term.

So what would happen in 1980? Would the GOP still nominate Reagan or would someone else have a chance? Who would the Democrats nominate? Can even the Great Communicator win when his party is the face of malaise?
I'm interested in hearing everyone's thoughts on this.

 

[Indicus]

Ford would do slightly better than Carter, and I think he'd keep Iran from falling. However, the horrible economy would likely doom any Republican.

I think, after the failure of Carter, the Democratic Party would nominate a northerner. I think their best candidate would be Hugh Carey, the popular, pragmatic governor of New York. Jerry Brown would be a good pick as well. As for the GOP, I don't see Reagan running in a year his defeat is all but guaranteed. Vice President Dole would be the frontrunner for sure.

If Dole runs, I expect a Democratic landslide, with their majorities in Congress increased even further. If Reagan runs, I expect the Democratic Party to win by a considerable, if smaller, margin, with their majorities in Congress stable.

 

[Deleted member 83898]

Ford is able to do a lot better than Carter, I think. Ford, a Republican, had years of legislative experience and could work even with a Democratic Congress. Carter was a political outsider who had no knowledge of how to be an effective political operator, a person who couldn't even get a bill scrapping a couple water projects past his own Democratic-controlled Congress.

The economy still goes into recession, but it is probably not as bad as a Ford Administration is better equipped to handle it. I agree that Ford could keep Iran from falling, and if it did, Ford wouldn't have kept the Shah, so there might be no hostage crisis and less ill will between the IRI and the US.

Whichever Republican runs in 1980 will still probably lose, as incumbency fatigue will be strong and a recession won't make it any easier.

Ted Kennedy '80?

 

[The Red]

Can even the Great Communicator win when his party is the face of malaise?

Of course he can.

Though as has been mentioned Ford is arguably far better equipped to deal wth the challenges Carter faced and as such Reagan will have an easier time of it than Carter had. Not to mention that he's so different from Ford's ideology that the Teflon Ron effect is still going to be there to shrug whenever there's a failure of the Ford administration he has to deal with.

 

[Indicus]

Ted Kennedy '80?

Doubt it. The only reason he ran IOTL was in order to provide a more liberal alternative to Carter. It won't be necessary in a year in which multiple liberals will run.

 

[GeographyDude]

I'm not sure why we think Ford would have had an easier time with the situation in Iran.

Unless maybe he does what Reagan did in '86 when Marcos in the Philippines faced People Power. As I understand it, Reagan basically told the guy, If you leave now, you can come to the United States. But if you try to hang on till the bitter end, you can't.

*the shame of it is that Aquino came from a rich family, and she did not push through land reform in any kind of meaningful way.

 

[Johnrankins]

Ford is able to do a lot better than Carter, I think. Ford, a Republican, had years of legislative experience and could work even with a Democratic Congress. Carter was a political outsider who had no knowledge of how to be an effective political operator, a person who couldn't even get a bill scrapping a couple water projects past his own Democratic-controlled Congress.

The economy still goes into recession, but it is probably not as bad as a Ford Administration is better equipped to handle it. I agree that Ford could keep Iran from falling, and if it did, Ford wouldn't have kept the Shah, so there might be no hostage crisis and less ill will between the IRI and the US.

Whichever Republican runs in 1980 will still probably lose, as incumbency fatigue will be strong and a recession won't make it any easier.

Ted Kennedy '80?

If he runs he loses, Chappaquiddick makes any Kennedy victory virtually impossible. Most of the ones that don't believe he panicked and left Mary Joe to die think he straight out murdered her.

 

[GeographyDude]

If he runs he loses, Chappaquiddick makes any Kennedy victory virtually impossible. Most of the ones that don't believe he panicked and left Mary Joe to die think he straight out murdered her.

Maybe a Navy rescue diver and helicopter pilot and co-pilot has actual practice with a night ditching and first making sure colleagues are unbuckled and aware and alert.

When Kennedy's car hit the water, there's a good chance he was concussed. I mean, hitting the water at this rate of speed is almost like hitting a hard surface.

I think the criticism of him is very unfair.

All the same, I agree with you on the perception. The perception of him panicking, or worse, is definitely there.

 

[Glass Onion]

In the late 1970's the Democratic Party would be the party of Ted Kennedy. Without President Carter there is not anyone who can challenge Kennedy's influence over the ideological shape of the party. He's also the only figure who appeals to all of the competing factions in the party.

Consequently the Democrats will be more unified. They still won't have the margins to pass major liberal priorties over Ford's veto-but the party will be much more united. Domestically there's going to be a lot of frustration on both sides.


Kennedy be under tremendous pressure to run. More so than in 1976. It's possible his effort to win the nomination could fail depending on how his campaign is and who his opponents are.

He might not even run and defy the pressure. That decision will be come as a surprise-there will be a general expectationIf he doesn't run the Kennedy endorsement is going to be a valuable commodity for whoever does run. By virtue of his role in the party I think Kennedy will have to at least make an endorsement.

With Ford the Panama Canal Treaties and SALT II are probably enacted. U.S.-Soviet relations will be much better than under Carter.

The Israel/Egypt treaty does not happen.

The Democratic Nominee probably wins 1980. I think He'd probably be more ideologically akin to Kennedy than Carter. But I could be wrong. In any case even a conservative Democratic administration is obviously to Reagan's left. Reagan's anti-labor policies never happen.

 

[i'm a person]

Read "Then Everything Changed" by Jeff Greenfield.

 

[Richmond_Pope]

The head shot to the Carter presidency was the hostage crisis. (Probably several of them, to be honest.) If a second Ford administration butterflies away the actual taking of the embassy, then I'd say Reagan in 1980 would have a chance. And it would be Reagan. Not after the near-thing that was the '76 convention.

 

[dw93]

Ford deals with Stagflation and Iran just like Carter did, but I would think that while Iran still wouldn't end well for him and Stagflation would still exist by the end of his term, Ford would still be slightly better equipped to handle them both. The Panama Canal treaty still happens and SALT II is still pushed as well. One thing I do think that would be butterflied away with Ford is the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, as I think U.S./Soviet Relations would fair better under Ford than they did under Carter. 1980 on the Republican side is Reagan vs. would be Vice President Dole and given how close he came to beating Ford in the '76 primary, I think the 1980 primary TTL would be won for the Gipper. Dole might stay on as VP though as he as no other elected office to go back to. On the Democratic side, I see Mondale, Hugh Carey, Jerry Brown, and Scoop Jackson running for it, I'd also throw in a Southern Governor or Senator as well. Teddy Kennedy isn't running, he sat out 76 and as others said, he only ran in '80 OTL because he didn't like where Carter was taking the Country and the party. I could see Mondale winning the nomination with Dale Bumpers or Lloyd Bentsen as his running mate, no one would blame Mondale for Carter's loss and given the economic problems, I'd think the Dems would want a New Dealer at the helm.

Mondale then goes on to beat Reagan in a landslide in 1980, after 12 years of Republican rule that included Watergate, the Fall of Saigon, Stagflation, energy shortages, and an Iranian Revolution, and Reagan, being 69 years old, retires from politics. Bob Dole most likely gets the GOP nomination in 1984, and that election will depend on how Mondale does as President.

 

[Indicus]

Ford deals with Stagflation and Iran just like Carter did, but I would think that while Iran still wouldn't end well for him and Stagflation would still exist by the end of his term, Ford would still be slightly better equipped to handle them both. The Panama Canal treaty still happens and SALT II is still pushed as well. One thing I do think that would be butterflied away with Ford is the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, as I think U.S./Soviet Relations would fair better under Ford than they did under Carter. 1980 on the Republican side is Reagan vs. would be Vice President Dole and given how close he came to beating Ford in the '76 primary, I think the 1980 primary TTL would be won for the Gipper. Dole might stay on as VP though as he as no other elected office to go back to. On the Democratic side, I see Mondale, Hugh Carey, Jerry Brown, and Scoop Jackson running for it, I'd also throw in a Southern Governor or Senator as well. Teddy Kennedy isn't running, he sat out 76 and as others said, he only ran in '80 OTL because he didn't like where Carter was taking the Country and the party. I could see Mondale winning the nomination with Dale Bumpers or Lloyd Bentsen as his running mate, no one would blame Mondale for Carter's loss and given the economic problems, I'd think the Dems would want a New Dealer at the helm.

Mondale then goes on to beat Reagan in a landslide in 1980, after 12 years of Republican rule that included Watergate, the Fall of Saigon, Stagflation, energy shortages, and an Iranian Revolution, and Reagan, being 69 years old, retires from politics. Bob Dole most likely gets the GOP nomination in 1984, and that election will depend on how Mondale does as President.

Mondale likely has too much baggage after 1976. Besides, better and admittedly more charismatic candidates exist.

 

[dw93]

Mondale likely has too much baggage after 1976. Besides, better and admittedly more charismatic candidates exist.

I doubt anyone would blame Mondale for Carter's loss. Mondale did nothing OTL to hurt the ticket, so Carter would take all the blame, being written off as a Democratic Thomas Dewey for losing what should've been a Democratic landslide, and given that the Democratic party of the 70s was in similar shape to today's GOP, I have to wonder how much better those better more charismatic candidates are.

 

[Indicus]

I doubt anyone would blame Mondale for Carter's loss. Mondale did nothing OTL to hurt the ticket, so Carter would take all the blame, being written off as a Democratic Thomas Dewey for losing what should've been a Democratic landslide, and given that the Democratic party of the 70s was in similar shape to today's GOP, I have to wonder how much better those better more charismatic candidates are.

Brown, namely. He made (and makes) good public speeches and he was (and is) the popular governor of California. Carey was (and is) a celebrated governor of New York. Mondale, on the other hand.... There is a reason he nearly lost to Gary Hart.

 

[dw93]

Brown, namely. He made (and makes) good public speeches and he was (and is) the popular governor of California. Carey was (and is) a celebrated governor of New York. Mondale, on the other hand.... There is a reason he nearly lost to Gary Hart.

I don't think Moonbeam would win in 1980. After a moderate like Carter lost in 1976, I don't think the party would nominate a fiscal conservative four years later, especially with a bad economy. Carey I guess would be a good possibility though.

 

[Indicus]

I don't think Moonbeam would win in 1980. After a moderate like Carter lost in 1976, I don't think the party would nominate a fiscal conservative four years later, especially with a bad economy.

Would they blame Carter's defeat on that, or his obscurity or gaffes? And in any case, Brown would be able to stress social issues and the good state of California during his governorship during his campaign.

 

[dw93]

Would they blame Carter's defeat on that, or his obscurity or gaffes? And in any case, Brown would be able to stress social issues and the good state of California during his governorship during his campaign.

Some on the left might, obscurity and gaffes would get blamed as well. As for Brown, 1980 was a year, both in OTL and TTL, that people are going to be, as my Grandfather would say "Voting their Pocket Books," and with that in mind, I still have a hard time believing Brown would win the Democratic nomination due to his more Conservative economic stances, even with his Social Liberalism. Plus, Brown is a very eccentric person overall, I think that to would cost him votes and would hurt the Democrats in the General if he is on the ticket (granted they would still win, it just wouldn't be a landslide).

 

[Maeglin]

Note that the Nixon pardon is a "damned if he does, damned if he doesn't situation" for Ford. If he does, you get OTL. If he doesn't, you get Republican dirty laundry obscuring everything.

I'd also point out that Ford would have been unlikely to appoint Paul Volcker as Fed Chair. This means that inflation is more of an issue for longer, but you avoid the nastiness of the early 1980s recession.

 

[Johnrankins]

In the late 1970's the Democratic Party would be the party of Ted Kennedy. Without President Carter there is not anyone who can challenge Kennedy's influence over the ideological shape of the party. He's also the only figure who appeals to all of the competing factions in the party.

Kennedy was popular in the Northeast and the Far West and nothing in between. You need a broader base than that to make it "your" party.