What if France won the War of the Spanish Succession, but OTL's Louis XV died in infancy?

[charlesBlackFrey]

In this scenario, let's say that the Battle of Blenheim ended in a French victory, which resulted in the French Victory in the War of the Spanish Succession. However, the familial disasters in the House of Bourbon still takes place with the Grand Dauphin, the Petit Dauphin and his immediate family, and Charles Duke of Berry and his immediate family dying before 1715 with the addition of OTL's Louis XV dying of measles in infancy.

Would a personal union between France and Spain be possible or would the French crown go to the House of Orleans?
Assuming that it resulted in a personal union happen under Philip V of Spain, who would be crowned as Philippe VII of France, do you think a personal union between France and Spain could last to the present day?

 

[VVD0D95]

In this scenario, let's say that the Battle of Blenheim ended in a French victory, which resulted in the French Victory in the War of the Spanish Succession. However, the familial disasters in the House of Bourbon still takes place with the Grand Dauphin, the Petit Dauphin and his immediate family, and Charles Duke of Berry and his immediate family dying before 1715 with the addition of OTL's Louis XV dying of measles in infancy.

Would a personal union between France and Spain be possible or would the French crown go to the House of Orleans?
Assuming that it resulted in a personal union happen under Philip V of Spain, who would be crowned as Philippe VII of France, do you think a personal union between France and Spain could last to the present day?

Crown goes to the Orleans.

 

[unprincipled peter]

A personal union isn't happening. The world will not allow it. The two countries likely don't want it. All the deaths as OTL, including Philip's first wife, probably don't happen, as daily lives get altered, but that wasn't the WI.
There was a good discussion on this in the last year or two.

My take is that Philip abdicates the crown of Spain in favor of his son and tries to take the crown of France. House of Orleans claims Philip has given up his rights in France, and claims the throne themselves. How great the chaos depends on strength of the factions. XIV has had time to set a line of succession and the two factions will have been jockeying to set themselves in good position. XIV may have already called for one of Philip's sons to come to France as heir, which throws a monkey wrench into Philip's plans. Orleans, if he hasn't overplayed his hand and been ostracized, probably seizes the regency as OTL, and then looks to make it permanent.

 

[Vanity 6]

Seems first we have to understand what French victory at Blenheim means. I think it means Austria is knocked out of the war, the Grand Alliance collapses and Felipe takes the Spanish inheritance with no concessions to the allies.

Some more thoughts. France takes Lorraine, Savoy and Nice. Bavaria takes the Spanish Netherlands and is perhaps elevated to a Kingdom. France abandons its Hungarian friends. Britain has to come to the table.

Not sure who would be in the position to meddle in the internal affairs of the Bourbons given their victory in the WoSS. Perhaps Luis is put forward as the heir in the OP scenario?

 

[charlesBlackFrey]

France abandons its Hungarian friends. Britain has to come to the table.

How come? Wouldn't this result to Hungarian independence from Austria or would the French allow the Hungarians to deal with the Ottomans and Russians alone?

Bavaria takes the Spanish Netherlands and is perhaps elevated to a Kingdom.

Wouldn't the Spanish under Philip V oppose this? Afterall one of Spain's goals in the War of the Spanish Succession would be to keep the Spanish Empire intact, which in this case would include the Spanish Netherlands.

France takes Lorraine, Savoy and Nice

I guess this means the House of Savoy would be reduced to a minor noble family in France instead of rulers of an independent duchy.

Perhaps Luis is put forward as the heir in the OP scenario

In a personal union scenario, Louis would be both Dauphin and Prince of Asturias.

 

[Vanity 6]

I could be wrong but I am surmising that Louis’ purpose is to obtain a favorable outcome to the Spanish succession question not dismember Austria. So if they bow out of the war and agree to terms, unfortunately, the Hungarians are just left in the lurch.

I suggest the Spanish Netherlands is the price of all that French support and they are transferred to French client Bavaria for easy manipulation. I guess that could also be achieved leaving them with Spain.

By Savoy I mean the county of Savoy aka Savoy proper. So there are still lands for the Savoy dukes to manage.

Maybe when/if Ferdinand is born he becomes Prince of Asturias. I think the Bourbons can do as they will after their win. Luis and Ferdinand are in Louis’ direct bloodline and I think that would be deemed better than anything going to Orleans.

 

[Urbanus VII]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/louis-15th-dies-in-1712.509935/#post-21915042

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/louis-15th-dies-in-1712.509935/#post-21921888

 

[unprincipled peter]

I suggest the Spanish Netherlands is the price of all that French support and they are transferred to French client Bavaria for easy manipulation. I guess that could also be achieved leaving them with Spain

I believe that the Spanish Netherlands were promised to Maximilian II of Bavaria in return for him allowing French troops free entry (he was governor of SN at the time). And, during the period when Austria occupied Bavaria and it looked like Bavaria might be absorbed, Louis tried to get SN for Max. France was in no position to bargain, so the request was rebuffed.

Max is going to want something sizable for his involvement. Of course, what he wants and what he gets are two different things. He torpedoed one of the major battles (was it Blenheim?) by going his own way instead of sticking with the battle plan. If victory is after (in spite of) his gaffe, he might be left out in the cold. If his gaffe is butterflied by the POD, he probably gets something.