What if Czar Paul I Survives?

[Emperor Casey]

Watching a video on the Battle of Austerlitz the discussion came up about Russia's Paul I and how he was inclined to support the French but he was assassinated by dissidents funded by Great Britain. But I want to know what if he either survived the assassination attempt? Discovered Britain was behind the plot either before or after it occurs and what would have happened regarding Napoleon and Russia if he survived and continued to rule?

 

[alexmilman]

Watching a video on the Battle of Austerlitz the discussion came up about Russia's Paul I and how he was inclined to support the French but he was assassinated by dissidents funded by Great Britain. But I want to know what if he either survived the assassination attempt? Discovered Britain was behind the plot either before or after it occurs and what would have happened regarding Napoleon and Russia if he survived and continued to rule?

It is rather difficult to predict anything with Paul but if the plot fails and it is found that Britain is behind it, one can imagine his feelings. On the top of these feelings there would be something else: just at that time Nelson with his squadron sailed into the Baltic with the expressed goal to destroy Swedish and Russian navies. Judging by his correspondence, he was quite certain in his ability to “defeat” Paul. Initially, situation favored him because Russian Baltic fleet was split between Revel and Kronstadt. However, while he was doing whatever he was doing, the Revel squadron sailed for Kronstadt. In OTL the whole affair ended with Paul’s assassination but in your AH Paul is alive and Nelson is sailing toward Kronstadt.

No matter how (un)successful would be Nelson’s further actions (goog luck with attack on Kronstadt fortifications), the public sentiment toward Britain in Russia would swing from a neutral to negative at such an offense. Needless to say that even in the most lucky scenario Nelson would not be able to cause any serious damage to Russian Empire because it’s power was on the land (and good buy to the British ships in the Russian ports, British property in the empire, etc.). The diplomatic relations would be broken and effect could be lasting for years. Nappy and the French are firmly established as the good guys and Perfidious Albion is ... well .. perfidious.

No 3rd Coalition and the rest is open to the speculations.

 

[Emperor Casey]

It is rather difficult to predict anything with Paul but if the plot fails and it is found that Britain is behind it, one can imagine his feelings. On the top of these feelings there would be something else: just at that time Nelson with his squadron sailed into the Baltic with the expressed goal to destroy Swedish and Russian navies. Judging by his correspondence, he was quite certain in his ability to “defeat” Paul. Initially, situation favored him because Russian Baltic fleet was split between Revel and Kronstadt. However, while he was doing whatever he was doing, the Revel squadron sailed for Kronstadt. In OTL the whole affair ended with Paul’s assassination but in your AH Paul is alive and Nelson is sailing toward Kronstadt.

No matter how (un)successful would be Nelson’s further actions (goog luck with attack on Kronstadt fortifications), the public sentiment toward Britain in Russia would swing from a neutral to negative at such an offense. Needless to say that even in the most lucky scenario Nelson would not be able to cause any serious damage to Russian Empire because it’s power was on the land (and good buy to the British ships in the Russian ports, British property in the empire, etc.). The diplomatic relations would be broken and effect could be lasting for years. Nappy and the French are firmly established as the good guys and Perfidious Albion is ... well .. perfidious.

No 3rd Coalition and the rest is open to the speculations.

I seem to recall that the two had the idea of at least the Russians launching an attack against India and British territories there. Would Paul have followed through on this or attempt to go after the British Isles or possibly against the Ottoman Empire?

 

[alexmilman]

I seem to recall that the two had the idea of at least the Russians launching an attack against India and British territories there. Would Paul have followed through on this or attempt to go after the British Isles or possibly against the Ottoman Empire?

Paul sent few thousands Cossacks presumably toward India but this was a doomed expedition due to a long list of items starting with absence of the maps, absence of supplies, numbers inadequate for the stated goal, etc.

There were rumors about a coordinated plan on a large scale but I can’t tell for sure if it really existed. Anyway, within the realm of available logistics and today’s knowledge of geography, this was a fantasy.

Attack on the British Isles also was unrealistic. While Russian Baltic fleet was at that time in a good condition, it was much weaker than British. However, there was no need for anything as drastic and risky. It was enough to maintain, together with Sweden, embargo on exports to Britain (especially iron, timber and other materials needed for ships construction). Of course, this would not kill Britain but it would be hurting (the reason why the Brits wanted to break the Neutrality League).

Wars against the Ottomans had been at that time something of a Russian hobby and could happen regardless relations with the Brits.

 

[Emperor Casey]

Paul sent few thousands Cossacks presumably toward India but this was a doomed expedition due to a long list of items starting with absence of the maps, absence of supplies, numbers inadequate for the stated goal, etc.

There were rumors about a coordinated plan on a large scale but I can’t tell for sure if it really existed. Anyway, within the realm of available logistics and today’s knowledge of geography, this was a fantasy.

Attack on the British Isles also was unrealistic. While Russian Baltic fleet was at that time in a good condition, it was much weaker than British. However, there was no need for anything as drastic and risky. It was enough to maintain, together with Sweden, embargo on exports to Britain (especially iron, timber and other materials needed for ships construction). Of course, this would not kill Britain but it would be hurting (the reason why the Brits wanted to break the Neutrality League).

Wars against the Ottomans had been at that time something of a Russian hobby and could happen regardless relations with the Brits.

Could we see another Napoleonic campaign in coordination with the Russians against the Ottomans? Presumably with Russia essentially allied with Napoleon the mainland nations would be worried about joining any coalition they would stuck in the middle of.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Could we see another Napoleonic campaign in coordination with the Russians against the Ottomans? Presumably with Russia essentially allied with Napoleon the mainland nations would be worried about joining any coalition they would stuck in the middle of.

In OTL, the Ottomans declared war on Russia based on promised help from Nappy. If that were absent, Selim III won't declare war on Russia. He goes on with his reforms in the military. Not sure what Paul would use as justification for war but that is up to the possibilities and Paul's nature.

A war with the Ottoman Empire, Persia and Sweden is not out of question. Although it will be a declaration of war by Russia though.

 

[Emperor Casey]

In OTL, the Ottomans declared war on Russia based on promised help from Nappy. If that were absent, Selim III won't declare war on Russia. He goes on with his reforms in the military. Not sure what Paul would use as justification for war but that is up to the possibilities and Paul's nature.

A war with the Ottoman Empire, Persia and Sweden is not out of question. Although it will be a declaration of war by Russia though.

Would it be unrealistic to form a mutual anti-British understanding between the three over the Egypt? If Britain is caught having conspired to assassinate the Russian Czar it could fuel that anti-British sentiment if the Russians play it well.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Would it be unrealistic to form a mutual anti-British understanding between the three over the Egypt? If Britain is caught having conspired to assassinate the Russian Czar it could fuel that anti-British sentiment if the Russians play it well.

Well... The Ottomans have no reason to be anti-British unless Paul I pressures Selim III in such an alliance. Selim might lack courage but he was smart. He knew not to face a Russo-French Alliance with nothing but British promises.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Relevant

 

[alexmilman]

Could we see another Napoleonic campaign in coordination with the Russians against the Ottomans? Presumably with Russia essentially allied with Napoleon the mainland nations would be worried about joining any coalition they would stuck in the middle of.

There was no obvious reason for Napoleon to start a war against the Ottomans. During the War of the 2nd Coalition Russians conducted joined operations with the Ottomans (including taking Corfu) and even created Republic of 7 Islands under a joined Russian-Ottoman overlordship.

Quite agree with your last post: Franco-Russian alliance would make effective anti-French Coalition practically impossible.

 

[Emperor Casey]

There was no obvious reason for Napoleon to start a war against the Ottomans. During the War of the 2nd Coalition Russians conducted joined operations with the Ottomans (including taking Corfu) and even created Republic of 7 Islands under a joined Russian-Ottoman overlordship.

Quite agree with your last post: Franco-Russian alliance would make effective anti-French Coalition practically impossible.

Depending on how time goes Napoleon could be firmly entrenched in power for a long time. The Russians may be confident enough to launch a full attack against the Ottomans if they don't have to worry about the French attacking them.

And if Britain is SOL what options does it have for countering Napoleon?

 

[alexmilman]

Depending on how time goes Napoleon could be firmly entrenched in power for a long time. The Russians may be confident enough to launch a full attack against the Ottomans if they don't have to worry about the French attacking them.

And if Britain is SOL what options does it have for countering Napoleon?

At that specific time it is not quite clear why would Paul be looking for a new war with the Ottomans: in general, he was know for expressing opinion that Russia is already big enough.

As for the Brits, they still would be dominant on the sea. On land, without the useful idiots, they would not be able to do too much.