What if Brazil never got rid of it's monarchy?

[Strategos' Risk]

On what do you base this? Sure there are occasional scandals, but this very rarely leads to a forced abdication. The European Constitutional Parliamentary Monarchies are actually quite strong, stronger than most Republics.

Juan Carlos, the very king who led Spain out of Francoist dictatorship, abdicating seems significant.

 

[Crazy Boris]

Juan Carlos, the very king who led Spain out of Francoist dictatorship, abdicating seems significant.

Juan Carlos himself said he wanted to abdicate because of his age, not because of mudslinging journalists.

 

[athgtq16129]

According to the internet, this is what the Empire of Brazil would be like in 2023:

 

[Spamavalanche]

According to the internet, this is what the Empire of Brazil would be like in 2023:

Eh, not really. It could have been better than OTL for sure, but just as any other period of Brazilian history could have been, I find the premise that the empire was somehow in a "better place" to really industrialize than all the republics we had, to be frank, laughable. If the old republic had somehow lived up to it positivist and french ideals, as some envisioned it being in the aftermath of the coup of 1889, the empire would have had its legacy being that of the Old Republic of OTL. Unfortunately, it didn't work out that way and the Old Republic was from the start just a continuation of the empire, which itself was just a continuation of the old Portuguese colonial elite.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Juan Carlos himself said he wanted to abdicate because of his age, not because of mudslinging journalists.

Could still have been expedited by tabloid scandals, since that decision was hot off the heels of all this.

Spanish news media speculated about the King's future in early 2014, following public criticism over his taking an elephant hunting safari in Botswana and an embezzlement scandal involving his daughter Cristina, and her husband Iñaki Urdangarin. The King's chief of staff denied in a briefing that the "abdication option" was being considered.[62] On the morning of 2 June 2014, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy made a televised announcement that the King had told him of his intention to abdicate. Later, the King delivered a televised address and announced that he would abdicate the throne in favour of the Prince of Asturias.[63] Royal officials described the King's choice as a personal decision which he had been contemplating since his 76th birthday at the start of the year.

 

[John I of Brazil]

Eh, not really. It could have been better than OTL for sure, but just as any other period of Brazilian history could have been, I find the premise that the empire was somehow in a "better place" to really industrialize than all the republics we had, to be frank, laughable. If the old republic had somehow lived up to it positivist and french ideals, as some envisioned it being in the aftermath of the coup of 1889, the empire would have had its legacy being that of the Old Republic of OTL. Unfortunately, it didn't work out that way and the Old Republic was from the start just a continuation of the empire, which itself was just a continuation of the old Portuguese colonial elite.

I'd say one of their flaws was that they actually tried to follow those ideals sometimes, because Auguste Comte, the developer of the positivist doctrine, believed the republican dictatorships were the ideal "positive" governments. Thus, positivism was frequently used to justify authoritarianism in Brazil, from the first phase of the Old Republic (also called the "Sword's Republic" for its militarist and authoritarian government) to 1964's military dictatorship.

 

[DDJR]

Damn. Is there a modern pro-monarchist fringe in Brazil, either right-wing extremist cosplayers like in Germany or in Russia, or dorky trad imperial nostalgia types like in Canada and Australia? Or in Portugal, I wonder. The House of Braganza there lasted quite some time.

There is indeed. However, it's is mostly between other kind of extreme right-wing types, and especially in the current environment it is always under the wing of another group, currently usually being associated with supporters of former president Bolsonaro. A actual descendant of Dom Pedro II is a federal deputy in Bolsonaro's party, and one of his uncles, prince Bertrand, is a far-right ideologue.

I'm not sure of how to get the monarchy to endure much more time. It was vaguely supported by most people, but the fact was that the political system that the monarchy sustained was severely compromised by the sheer exhaustion. One of Pedro's heirs, be his daughter or her children, would have to essentially revitalize the monarchy either by opening the oligarchic political system that already was in place by late Empire or by compromising somewhat in dividing the spoils better with the Brazilian Elites.