Let's say that Austria and Bavaria are able to negotiate in secret or fast enough to present the exchange of lands as a "fait accompli" to the other German Principalities, what would happen next? Would Prussia and other German Princes still declare war on Austria? What would be the long term consequences of Austria annexing Bavaria and Austrian Netherlands becoming its own kingdom with the Palatinate?
What if Austria is able to exchange Netherlands for Bavaria in 1785?
- Thread starter Diego
- Start date
Well, in OTL the following happened:
Charles-Theodore, was Prince-Elector of the county Palatine, and Duke of Julich and Berg when he inherited Bavaria in 1777. He never cared much about Bavaria and he also didn't have any legitimate children.
In 1778 the Austrians negotiated an agreement with Charles, Austria wanted to acquire part of Bavaria in exchange for part of the Austrian Netherlands, it led to the War of Bavarian Succession from 1778 to 1779 that nullified most of what was agreed.
The second agreement happened in 1785 when Charles-Theodore and Joseph II of Austria agreed to exchange the entirety of Bavaria for the entirety of the Austrian Netherlands. That agreement also didn't enter into effect because Prussia organized an alliance with other German Princes and created the Fürstenbund to counter Austria.
Charles-Theodore, was Prince-Elector of the county Palatine, and Duke of Julich and Berg when he inherited Bavaria in 1777. He never cared much about Bavaria and he also didn't have any legitimate children.
In 1778 the Austrians negotiated an agreement with Charles, Austria wanted to acquire part of Bavaria in exchange for part of the Austrian Netherlands, it led to the War of Bavarian Succession from 1778 to 1779 that nullified most of what was agreed.
The second agreement happened in 1785 when Charles-Theodore and Joseph II of Austria agreed to exchange the entirety of Bavaria for the entirety of the Austrian Netherlands. That agreement also didn't enter into effect because Prussia organized an alliance with other German Princes and created the Fürstenbund to counter Austria.
Deleted member 109224
If the 1785 swap of Bavaria for the Austrian Netherlands occurs, we'd see a Wittelsbach Netherlands, Palatinate, and Julich-Cleves-Berg. Charles Theodore wanted to swap the electorate of Bavaria so he could get a Royal Crown as King of Burgundy.
In 1794 the French marched into Julich and in 1795 they marched into the Palatinate; but this was part of the Flanders Campaign of 1792-1795. They tried to march through Bavaria in 1796 to get to the Austrians. Maybe France goes after Burgundy here, but my guess is that if Burgundy stays neutral in the War of the First Coalition the French will not see need to go after them.
But the big issue is the Liege Revolution. Liege sought annexation by France OTL (viewing it as the only alternative to being crushed by Austria). But Austria probably wouldn't be the threat here if it's Burgundy which surrounds Liege. I'm not sure what Charles Theodore's views were (he apparently was a bit of a dilettante more interested in the arts than in governance) but his successor Maximilian Joseph was and would be pro-French and pro-Enlightenment (he even served in the French military). A French-allied Burgundy to the North seems in the cards to me - if France fears Burgundy allying with the Austrians, they could depose Charles Theodore in favor of Maximilian Joseph.
No Austrian Netherlands means France doesn't have Austrian territory to invade when the Austrians and Prussians start threatening them. Maybe they just march into southern Germany instead? France could annex Austrian Baden like it annexed the Austrian Netherlands OTL, but that doesn't really play into the whole 'natural borders' schtick the French liked to talk up.
In 1794 the French marched into Julich and in 1795 they marched into the Palatinate; but this was part of the Flanders Campaign of 1792-1795. They tried to march through Bavaria in 1796 to get to the Austrians. Maybe France goes after Burgundy here, but my guess is that if Burgundy stays neutral in the War of the First Coalition the French will not see need to go after them.
But the big issue is the Liege Revolution. Liege sought annexation by France OTL (viewing it as the only alternative to being crushed by Austria). But Austria probably wouldn't be the threat here if it's Burgundy which surrounds Liege. I'm not sure what Charles Theodore's views were (he apparently was a bit of a dilettante more interested in the arts than in governance) but his successor Maximilian Joseph was and would be pro-French and pro-Enlightenment (he even served in the French military). A French-allied Burgundy to the North seems in the cards to me - if France fears Burgundy allying with the Austrians, they could depose Charles Theodore in favor of Maximilian Joseph.
No Austrian Netherlands means France doesn't have Austrian territory to invade when the Austrians and Prussians start threatening them. Maybe they just march into southern Germany instead? France could annex Austrian Baden like it annexed the Austrian Netherlands OTL, but that doesn't really play into the whole 'natural borders' schtick the French liked to talk up.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Louis XVI and Marie-Antoinette don't flee to Varennes with the intention of fleeing to Austrian Netherlands either, although it might be reasonably en route to the Austrian portion of Baden, Hither Austria.
What creates the permissive conditions for the swap to occur - an early death (by a year or so) for Frederick the Great? Postponement of the Austro-Bavarian deal by about a year until Frederick's death in 1786? I could imagine that beyond the German powers themselves, and possibly the local population, no other European powers would be inclined or terribly able to make a big stink about the trade.
France is allied to Austria anyway, and in massive debt. It's not unfriendly to the Wittelsbach's either.
Britain may be nervous about the southern Netherlands going to an independent, lower-ranking power, under a dynasty traditionally pro-French. But it's licking its wounds from the ARW and paying off its debts, doesn't care about Bavaria, and at least this way it knows it won't need to worry about Joseph trying to revive an Ostend-Antwerp Indies company again.
The Netherlands is facing internal trouble and not doing much by force in Europe these days.
Russia is distant.
This was why Karl Theodor wanted the Netherlands. So that Max (or rather, Max's older brother) wouldn't be his heirs, and instead, Karl Theodor could pass the lands directly to his bastard son.
Well a major difference for Joseph II is that they don’t have to deal with the uprising in the Austrian Netherlands, maybe they see a uprising in Bavaria instead, but it’s less likely and easier to deal with. This give Joseph a better opportunity to deal with the Hungarian uprisings (which is not necessary a good thing), but the avoidance of the War of Bavarian Succession also mean no deal with Russia and no war with the Ottomans, this keep Joseph alive longer and keep Leopold II in Tuscany, where he avoided getting accidental murdered by his doctors, this also serve to ensure Francis II is older before he gain power.
So we can expect Joseph being more successful in pushing his reforms through, this de facto mean the creation of a Austrian Catholic Church, German as administrative language instead of Latin, land reforms in Hungary, Galicia (and Bavaria).
If the French Revolutionary Wars are still fought, the battlefield is more likely to be mainly in Italy. Of course without Austria on the French border, we may see the French being less afraid of a Austrian intervention, also the French Royal Family may successful flee and we could imagine that the Revolution stay a internal French matter with French Royal Family trying to get Austria to intervene, but Vienna deciding to stay out of it.
So we can expect Joseph being more successful in pushing his reforms through, this de facto mean the creation of a Austrian Catholic Church, German as administrative language instead of Latin, land reforms in Hungary, Galicia (and Bavaria).
If the French Revolutionary Wars are still fought, the battlefield is more likely to be mainly in Italy. Of course without Austria on the French border, we may see the French being less afraid of a Austrian intervention, also the French Royal Family may successful flee and we could imagine that the Revolution stay a internal French matter with French Royal Family trying to get Austria to intervene, but Vienna deciding to stay out of it.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
Why would switching lands give him more flexibility in bastard heirs, or an opportunity for Royal Crown? Southern Netherlands was still just as much part of the HRE as Germany proper. Was Emperor Joseph granting him a special dispensation as part of the trade? Was that even in the Holy Roman Emperor's toolkit?
That will be a mess, but the main Reason I think the trade was mostly because even with the swap, the Wittelbasch still keep their electoral vote(elector palatine to begin with) but won the more profitable Anthrewp and the possibility of worldwide trade with it
Well, the change in the rule of succession doesn't happen because of the lands per se, but because it is a new kingdom with new laws.
About if the Emperor had that power... well, probably yes. The Golden Bull of Sicily created the Kingdom of Bohemia, also it seems like Charles the Bold wanted to be a king and petitioned the Emperor for that, so it seems like the emperor had this power of granting kingdoms.
It's a sort of combination between new kingdom, new laws, and the laws already in place. Morganatic marriages (AIUI) didn't exist in the Netherlands, nor was there a bloc towards "legitimized" heirs inheriting (again AIUI). Not to mention that Karl Theodor could simply pay the Hochadel tax (once his equally born wife dies) to have his morganatic marriage declared equal by the emperor (Anhalt-Dessau descended from the daughter of a local pharmacist for that reason). Kids wouldn't necessarily inherit the Palatinate, but they would be legal heirs to "Burgundy".
Maurits of Nassau threatened his brother, Frederik Hendrik, with "legitimating his bastards" in order to force Frik to get married. I doubt that Maurits could've done this if there wasn't some loophole in Netherlandish law the allowed for it.
That said, Julich-Kleves-Berg is a quagmire of female succession in the 14th century, so it clearly didn't operate on the same principles of Salic Law as the rest of the Empire. So there's a headache coming on there
Not necessarily. Karl Theodor's line would inherit "Burgundy" while the Zweibrucken line (in the person of Karl II of Zweibrucken), at best, would only inherit the Palatinate. And, considering how close the Zweibrucken line came to extinction (Karl II only had one son, Max IV/I of Bavaria only married after Karl's son died; Karl-Max's sister was married to the prince of Gelnhausen, the last other Wittelsbach at the time, and they only had one kid, and Gelnhausen was pretty abusive towards his wife IIRC, since she spent more time in Munich than with her husband - hence the low number of kids, who was brought up by uncle Max).
Recent in 1785 or recent in 2021? Also, link please.
As KT would exchange Bavaria for the Austrian Netherlands, the line of Zweibrücken would definitely claim that this was no 'new' land at all. The AN just replaced Bavaria.
And both in Bavaria and the Palatine illegitime male children existed before and there had been pretty clear-cut decisions, both in the Palatine and Bavaria, against them inheriting
Recent from 1785 of course