What does a United Baltic Duchy look like?

[mikegold]

Standard fodder for CP victory scenarios is the United Baltic Duchy, consisting of Courland, Livland and Estland (modern Latvia and Estonia almost exactly). The ruling population is the Baltic Germans, and the Kaiser rules the three Duchies in personal union. Sometimes, it is posited that they enter the German empire as Reichslander at some point in the future; sometimes it is posited that the area is swamped by German settlers/fully assimilated into Germany.

In reality, would would a surviving UBR look like? What are the approximate percentages that are German, Latvian, Estonian, Jewish, and Russian, respectively? Would Lutheranism and fear of Russia bring the peoples of the Duchies together, or ethnic nationalism and Wilhelmine repression tear them apart? How much economic punch does the UBR, once developed, have within Mitteleuropa? What is the relationship between Berlin and Riga like some years down the road?

 

[ingemann]

Around around 70-80% Estonian and Latvian (Latvians was the bigger group), 10+% Russian, 6+%, German (6% at it lowest, the population may have been above 10% in 1918), 3-4% Jewish, 1% Swedish, small Livian remnant population.

 

[mikegold]

Around around 70-80% Estonian and Latvian (Latvians was the bigger group), 10+% Russian, 6+%, German (6% at it lowest, the population may have been above 10% in 1918), 3-4% Jewish, 1% Swedish, small Livian remnant population.

That Estonian and Latvian divide may be a big deal. Do the populations tend to get along? Are they a joint front for a more representative UBR, or do the Baltic Germans successfully divide and rule?

 

[Enigmajones]

Like this...

 

[Saladan]

I'm not sure how accurate this is but I've heard how it was both the German and Russian nobility that supported its creation (in the Russians case because they apparently preferred any monarchy, even a foreign one to a native democratic/republican/socialist/bolshevik state). So assuming that bit is true then what role would these Russian nobles have?

 

[ingemann]

That Estonian and Latvian divide may be a big deal. Do the populations tend to get along? Are they a joint front for a more representative UBR, or do the Baltic Germans successfully divide and rule?

The two populations have little to do with each other, they lived separate and mostly ignored each others. But from the German side sum them up as one group make sense. Both population had a small intelligentsia, was mostly the underclass, poor, protestants and bilingual in German. From German way of thinking they wasn't very different from the rural population of Pomerania or Mecklenburg. As for divide or rule, I think that as long as the Baltic Germans have the empire behind them, they will not need to do so. In fact the empire may be seen as positive by both groups, as it will push for more rights to the common man of the duchies, while the Baltic German elite, the Jewish and Russian minority will be seen as connected with the Tsar and his rule.

 

[ingemann]

I'm not sure how accurate this is but I've heard how it was both the German and Russian nobility that supported its creation (in the Russians case because they apparently preferred any monarchy, even a foreign one to a native democratic/republican/socialist/bolshevik state). So assuming that bit is true then what role would these Russian nobles have?

They would have been treated as fellow nobles. An nobleman have no nationalistyhe have only his class, and these nobles would have done as the refugees in Copenhagen and London integrated themselves into the new elite (of course many of them were also assimilated Baltic Germans and Swedes).

 

[Nietzsche]

I could see German becoming the lingua franca of the Duchy, and in the largest cities it be the language period. Might never overtake the local languages across the whole state, but the centers of power & trade would become German cities not unlike Hamburg, Danzig, Koenigsbderg, ect.

 

[Thoresby]

They would have been treated as fellow nobles. An nobleman have no nationalistyhe have only his class, and these nobles would have done as the refugees in Copenhagen and London integrated themselves into the new elite (of course many of them were also assimilated Baltic Germans and Swedes).

While the German nobility was somewhat different due to the historical absence of a proper nation state for so long most European nobles were definitely country before class and often extremely snobbish about other countries nobility. Remember "A British gentleman is equivalent to a French Baron, a German Count, a Spanish Duke and an Italian Prince."

 

[Thoresby]

I could see German becoming the lingua franca of the Duchy, and in the largest cities it be the language period. Might never overtake the local languages across the whole state, but the centers of power & trade would become German cities not unlike Hamburg, Danzig, Koenigsbderg, ect.

Most of the cities in the Baltic had switched from German majority only in the last few decades. From the conquest of the area by the Teutonic knights and the establishment of the first cities most cities were a mix of German and Jewish and majority German speaking, that had persisted right up until the 1850-1900 when the beginnings of industrialisation brought Estonian/Latvian peasants in from rural areas in sufficient numbers that they weren't assimilated into the "German" population.

 

[BlondieBC]

A lot will depend on the exact details of the win. A world with a Tsar is different from one with a White government is different from USSR world. Some thoughts.

1) The status would be similar to Luxembourg. German but not necessarily a part of Germany.

2) If the Russia/USSR has ambitions to reclaim them, this will tend to unite them behind Germany. I lean towards much better economic performance under Germany than Russia.

3) There will be ethnic cleansing in a CP win, as their was IOTL over the 1917-1946 period. A lot depends on how this falls out. Likely the Poles will leave. A lot of Russians and others will leave before the German advance if slow enough. They likely will not be allow to return or fully return. It is likely there will be pogroms. Large scale Jewish expulsion from Russia is possible. Where do they end up? Are there counter flows? Does the war cause major disease epidemics besides the Spanish flu. If typhus gets going, then losing well over 10% of the population is possible. All this makes the demographics hard to project, and can very by TL. When I did a TL, I ended up with part of the Baltic being a German state that was actually Jewish majority. Lots of other results are possible.

4) Over time assuming the Russians do not regain the area, the language will become German. At least everyone will be able to speak German. A German win creates a German trade zone by default. The Germans will be exclude from the British Empire and possibly French Empire for trade.

5) So lets take some numbers based on ignemann 75 Lat/Estonian, 10 Russian, 10 German, 4 Jewish, 1 Swede. So what type of result would I guess in most common in an ATL after war accounting for immigration and movements. Assume 10% death rate of population (Romanian levels).

Post War:

50-65 Lat/Estonian (Some will prefer to live in Russia or will not be allowed to return.) Russian 2-5. German 9. (There were plans for German settlers, but I have looked at demographics a lot. Where do you find them?) Jewish 3-30. (Huge range. Low end assumes just losses in war. High end assume harsh environment in Russia for Jews combined with German unwillingness to take refugee flows.) Swede 1.

Fifty years later: I would expect the Lat/Estonian to be some type of hybrid nation. Likely speak Lat/Estonian at home, but do business and university in German. A lot of blurring will occur. Sort of how Mexico and USA blurs in Texas.

 

[Nietzsche]

I don't see Germany bothering with EC on the Duchy. What purpose would it serve? Especially when Germanization is a viable option?

 

[Athelstane]

I don't see Germany bothering with EC on the Duchy. What purpose would it serve? Especially when Germanization is a viable option?

The Russians would be undesirable in any case, and would certainly feel undesirable. Their status in the Baltics was tied to Russian rule, which wasn't always received well.

 

[BlondieBC]

I don't see Germany bothering with EC on the Duchy. What purpose would it serve? Especially when Germanization is a viable option?

First, Germanization is not really a viable option if you mean settle new Germans in the area within 20 years. WW1 gutted the working age population of Germany like most of the major powers involved. It would mean taking a city that was already short 10% of its prewar workforce and doing forced relocations. It does not make sense to have empty house and factories in city X in Germany and then move some of these Germans to City Y in Latvia where there are no extra units.

Second, EC will happened ITTL and did happen IOTL. Anytimes refugees flee in large numbers and don't return, you end up with EC. Russia did a burned earth policy in Poland, and even with a rapid advance of the Germans OTL at least a million Slavs left the Congress of Poland. Probably closer to 3. If you simply refuse to allow them to return in a CP win, you have a 10% EC or so. Same can happen and will happen in the Baltics.

Third, you have the possibility of more direct EC. The Germans or Latvians or winners might just expel people directly. We can see limited amounts of this with Poles to Jews post WW1 OTL. And we see it with the Russians doing Jews and other non Slavs in Galicia OTL. We also saw it in the Balkans OTL. IT is simply par for the course. The Germans will consider and have a real possibility of doing. Note: I am not using EC as some politically correct word for Genocide. It will be mostly expulsions designed to move people out who are seen as disloyal. It is likely of a much lower scale than what we saw the Soviets do IOTL in WW2.

So in short, resettling Germans from anywhere is unlikely. Some EC will happen with refugee flows as in most ethnic wars. And we may get deliberate policies by either side.

 

[Thoresby]

While I agree you aren't going to get large scale Warthegau style expulsions and resettlement you will get some "Reich" Germans moving to the Baltic as carpet baggers if nothing else, plus the families of the administrators and military garrison some of whom will become permanent residents. As you said Germany lacks the "surplus" population for large scale, organised ethnic cleansing but the same processes that created the Russian and German populations in region in the first place are going to occur and are going to see the ethnic German population rise faster than the general population, at least in the short term. Add to that German will retain it's place as the language of the educated urban middle class.

So personally by 1950 I would expect something like 15% German, 10% Jewish, 5% Russian, 5% Other*, 65% "locals" in ethnic terms. But linguistically I would expect Swedish to probably die out within a few generations as they would be the most susceptible to Germanisation and Russian would take a hammer blow though I suspect the Russian community would keep on using it at home. Most Jews already speak German in preference to Estonian/Latvian and that dominance would only grow while a substantial group of urban, middle-class social climbing Estonian/Lats would probably adopt German as well. 35% German as a first language, 60% Latvian/Estonian, 5% Other.



*Swedes, Poles, Estonian in Lithuanian areas, Lits in Estonian area etc.

 

[Mikestone8]

While I agree you aren't going to get large scale Warthegau style expulsions and resettlement you will get some "Reich" Germans moving to the Baltic as carpet baggers if nothing else, plus the families of the administrators and military garrison some of whom will become permanent residents. As you said Germany lacks the "surplus" population for large scale, organised ethnic cleansing but the same processes that created the Russian and German populations in region in the first place are going to occur and are going to see the ethnic German population rise faster than the general population, at least in the short term. Add to that German will retain it's place as the language of the educated urban middle class.

So personally by 1950 I would expect something like 15% German, 10% Jewish, 5% Russian, 5% Other*, 65% "locals" in ethnic terms. But linguistically I would expect Swedish to probably die out within a few generations as they would be the most susceptible to Germanisation and Russian would take a hammer blow though I suspect the Russian community would keep on using it at home. Most Jews already speak German in preference to Estonian/Latvian and that dominance would only grow while a substantial group of urban, middle-class social climbing Estonian/Lats would probably adopt German as well. 35% German as a first language, 60% Latvian/Estonian, 5% Other.


*Swedes, Poles, Estonian in Lithuanian areas, Lits in Estonian area etc.

Iirc, under Soviet rule the population of Latvia got to about 40% Russian, so such things ain't impossible.

Alos, there are quite a few Germans in Russia, on the Volga and elsewhere. If conditions in Russia get too unpleasant, some of them might be willing to resettle under German rule.

 

[Thoresby]

Iirc, under Soviet rule the population of Latvia got to about 40% Russian, so such things ain't impossible.

The Kaiserreich isn't the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany when it comes to forcibly moving people around in order to achieve it's goals. I'm not suggesting that there won't be efforts to encourage Germans to move to the area and I acknowledge that they will have an effect but they won't be comparable to why the Soviets did. Anyway I suspect the if the Kaiserreich is going to try and Germanize anywhere it would be Western Poland rather than the UBD.

Alos, there are quite a few Germans in Russia, on the Volga and elsewhere. If conditions in Russia get too unpleasant, some of them might be willing to resettle under German rule.

As I said above, I think it's very likely that many of the Volga Germans and other German populations outside Germany like the Transylvanian Saxons will move to Germany but they'll want to go where the jobs and opportunities are and that will be Berlin and the Rhineland, though some might well end up on the Baltic the majority won't, not least because I think the Government will be trying to encourage them to move to Western Poland.

 

[Nietzsche]

First, Germanization is not really a viable option if you mean settle new Germans in the area within 20 years. WW1 gutted the working age population of Germany like most of the major powers involved. It would mean taking a city that was already short 10% of its prewar workforce and doing forced relocations. It does not make sense to have empty house and factories in city X in Germany and then move some of these Germans to City Y in Latvia where there are no extra units.

Second, EC will happened ITTL and did happen IOTL. Anytimes refugees flee in large numbers and don't return, you end up with EC. Russia did a burned earth policy in Poland, and even with a rapid advance of the Germans OTL at least a million Slavs left the Congress of Poland. Probably closer to 3. If you simply refuse to allow them to return in a CP win, you have a 10% EC or so. Same can happen and will happen in the Baltics.

Third, you have the possibility of more direct EC. The Germans or Latvians or winners might just expel people directly. We can see limited amounts of this with Poles to Jews post WW1 OTL. And we see it with the Russians doing Jews and other non Slavs in Galicia OTL. We also saw it in the Balkans OTL. IT is simply par for the course. The Germans will consider and have a real possibility of doing. Note: I am not using EC as some politically correct word for Genocide. It will be mostly expulsions designed to move people out who are seen as disloyal. It is likely of a much lower scale than what we saw the Soviets do IOTL in WW2.

So in short, resettling Germans from anywhere is unlikely. Some EC will happen with refugee flows as in most ethnic wars. And we may get deliberate policies by either side.

When I said 'Germanization' I meant the process of, well, Germanizing Latvians, Estonians, ect.

 

[ingemann]

While the German nobility was somewhat different due to the historical absence of a proper nation state for so long most European nobles were definitely country before class and often extremely snobbish about other countries nobility. Remember "A British gentleman is equivalent to a French Baron, a German Count, a Spanish Duke and an Italian Prince."

It's important to remember that the British at that time was arrogant and obnoxious twits, who loved one-lines. In truth a British "gentleman" was around the same place below titleless nobility in Germany (around the same place as the patrician families in the city states, if they were lucky). On the other British nobles was the ones who intermarried with German nobles at the same rank.

As for recognise each others, while historical a nobleman needed to be titled into the local nobility if he moved country, by the 19th century the different countries recognised each other titles if they had the lineage to back it up, and Russian nobles at this point did have the lineage (two centuries earlier they didn't, but 200 years of integration of Russia into European culture had changed that).

 

[ingemann]

While I agree you aren't going to get large scale Warthegau style expulsions and resettlement you will get some "Reich" Germans moving to the Baltic as carpet baggers if nothing else, plus the families of the administrators and military garrison some of whom will become permanent residents. As you said Germany lacks the "surplus" population for large scale, organised ethnic cleansing but the same processes that created the Russian and German populations in region in the first place are going to occur and are going to see the ethnic German population rise faster than the general population, at least in the short term. Add to that German will retain it's place as the language of the educated urban middle class.

So personally by 1950 I would expect something like 15% German, 10% Jewish, 5% Russian, 5% Other*, 65% "locals" in ethnic terms. But linguistically I would expect Swedish to probably die out within a few generations as they would be the most susceptible to Germanisation and Russian would take a hammer blow though I suspect the Russian community would keep on using it at home. Most Jews already speak German in preference to Estonian/Latvian and that dominance would only grow while a substantial group of urban, middle-class social climbing Estonian/Lats would probably adopt German as well. 35% German as a first language, 60% Latvian/Estonian, 5% Other.

*Swedes, Poles, Estonian in Lithuanian areas, Lits in Estonian area etc.

On average administrators (includes police and military) was 10% of the population at this point in history, as the locals in general have little education, the administration will to large degree be recruited among the local elite (Baltic Germans and the Russian middle class) and being imported from the rest of empire. Non German in the administration would have a large interest in assimilate into a German identity. All in all I think German population would likely be between 20-30% by 1950 (through it's unlikely that it will grow larger than that). As for the Swedish minority, their lifestyle (fishing and coastal farming in a relative isolated area) and the existence of a small but important intelligentsia will make their assimilation unlikely, through the increasing urbanisation would likely lower their percent of the entire population. My guess is that Riga may even end up a German enclave again (the Baltic Brussel).