West Germany Buys the F-16

[Simon]

All the discussion about possibly sending fighter aircraft to Ukraine reminded me of something I'd wondered about previously: How do you get the F-16 into West German service? The most obvious juncture is in place of the Tornado. As I understand it the Tornado was originally seen as a Starfighter replacement, the preliminary group being called the F-104 Replacement Group, but with several countries dropping out or signing up this morphed into a larger two-seater aircraft with greater attack/strike capabilities. IIRC Britain was the main party pushing for a second crew member so keep them out of the Tornado project removes that. Easiest way to do that is have them go for TSR-2 or F-111 instead, although that still leaves an ADV stand-in for the GIUK Gap.

Two main challenges are going to be that as introduced the F-16 lacked attack capability thanks to the Fighter Mafia's concentration on air-to-air, and domestic industrial capacity which the Tornado was used to help develop. If they saw the opportunity for greater sales do people think that the US government or General Dynamics would be willing to fund an initial basic air-to-ground capability? On the industrial question I'm unsure. On the one hand signing up to the F-16 means less development of domestic design capabilities, on the other if they arrange something similar to our timeline's "deal of the century" then might a smaller (manufacturing and assembly) part of a larger project be considered a good enough trade-off? Might also need to tweak the dates of the LWF programme slightly.

 

[I lurk therefore I am]

F16 would not be selected in place of the Tornado as it is completely wrong for the requirement.

The Germans wanted an all weather low level interdictor/nuclear strike and maritime attack aircraft. An F16 is a light day fighter/bomber. In no way could a 70s/80s F16 do what a Tornado could. The Germans had a look at the Buccaneer before choosing the Starfighter, which was a much more likely buy for the role than an F16. Add on Germany wanted as much of the production as possible. Would Lockheed build F-16s in Germany?

An F16 is either a German F4 replacement, possibly delaying it and have the Eurofighter turn out how the French wanted it (i.e. have land based and CATOBAR carrier versions, like the Rafale). In OTL, one of the reasons why the French left the Eurofighter programme was due to no naval version . In this case, have the UK plan to go back to cats and traps for the QEs, so Eurofighter turns out like the Rafale, rather than the point defence interceptor the Germans wanted. Germany goes F-16 instead, while Italy and and Spain choose between Anglo-French preference or F-16.

 

[Ramontxo]

To be able to penetrate Warsaw Pact defended air space at very fast, very low the Tornado was by far the better aircraft. If you are going for the F 16 then the requirements should include Air Air capability (dual purpose I suppose). But given the original F16s were restricted to wvr fight (and anyway even the German Phantoms were not allowed anything other than Sidewinders)they were not that much of a game changer in that role. Later models were a different bird and anyway if you wanted dual role the true aircraft should have been the F 18.

 

[Blue cat]

All the discussion about possibly sending fighter aircraft to Ukraine reminded me of something I'd wondered about previously: How do you get the F-16 into West German service? The most obvious juncture is in place of the Tornado. As I understand it the Tornado was originally seen as a Starfighter replacement, the preliminary group being called the F-104 Replacement Group, but with several countries dropping out or signing up this morphed into a larger two-seater aircraft with greater attack/strike capabilities. IIRC Britain was the main party pushing for a second crew member so keep them out of the Tornado project removes that. Easiest way to do that is have them go for TSR-2 or F-111 instead, although that still leaves an ADV stand-in for the GIUK Gap.

Two main challenges are going to be that as introduced the F-16 lacked attack capability thanks to the Fighter Mafia's concentration on air-to-air, and domestic industrial capacity which the Tornado was used to help develop. If they saw the opportunity for greater sales do people think that the US government or General Dynamics would be willing to fund an initial basic air-to-ground capability? On the industrial question I'm unsure. On the one hand signing up to the F-16 means less development of domestic design capabilities, on the other if they arrange something similar to our timeline's "deal of the century" then might a smaller (manufacturing and assembly) part of a larger project be considered a good enough trade-off? Might also need to tweak the dates of the LWF programme slightly.

Maybe a post Cold War buy of some used F16 ADF’s ?

Perhaps in an alternate time line there are issues with their existing aircraft fleets and or projects to replace them and Germany looks for an inexpensive way to have a reasonably credible air defence capability ?

Edit to add I realize that West Germany (as opposed to Germany) likely wouldn't be operating them in this fictional alternate time line.

 

[1Big Rich]

F16 would not be selected in place of the Tornado as it is completely wrong for the requirement.

The Germans wanted an all weather low level interdictor/nuclear strike and maritime attack aircraft.

That sounds more like the F-16XL Strike Falcon....

https://media.defense.gov/2007/May/16/2000543867/-1/-1/0/060905-F-1234S-049.JPGg

Regards,

 

[Riain]

My guess is next to impossible.

The Luftwaffe wasn't in the market for a fighter having procured 175 F4Fs from 1973.

It was in the market for a strike aircraft, which was what the F104 was used for. Prior to taking on the British UKVG/AFVG in 1968 the Germans were working on the A400 AVS from 1964.

In a Britwank scenario where the UKVG isn't available for the Germans and Italians to turn into the Tornado they might be in trouble.

 

[I lurk therefore I am]

My guess is next to impossible.

The Luftwaffe wasn't in the market for a fighter having procured 175 F4Fs from 1973.

It was in the market for a strike aircraft, which was what the F104 was used for. Prior to taking on the British UKVG/AFVG in 1968 the Germans were working on the A400 AVS from 1964.

In a Britwank scenario where the UKVG isn't available for the Germans and Italians to turn into the Tornado they might be in trouble.

In that case, then the Germans and Italians can go for the TSR2 instead

 

[Riain]

In that case, then the Germans and Italians can go for the TSR2 instead

On the face of it, yes. But the TSR2,and F111 for that matter, are EXTREMELY powerful long range theatre strike aircraft. They have the range to hit Moscow and Leningrad from bases in Britain for example.

While this is entirely appropriate for Official nuclear powers as per the Non-Proliferation Treaty what would the political ramifications be if former Axis powers have such power in their hands? Forward based for that matter, giving even greater reach. Would the Germans even want the TSR2/F111 for that reason? Australia avoided in-flight refuelling its F111s for their entire lives to avoid upsetting Indonesia, as a similar example.

 

[Riain]

This era of defence procurement history is so interesting. It's full of twists and turns and the decisions made lasted for 30 or even 40 or more years and can be felt to this day.

 

[Lascaris]

My guess is next to impossible.

The Luftwaffe wasn't in the market for a fighter having procured 175 F4Fs from 1973.

It was in the market for a strike aircraft, which was what the F104 was used for. Prior to taking on the British UKVG/AFVG in 1968 the Germans were working on the A400 AVS from 1964.

In a Britwank scenario where the UKVG isn't available for the Germans and Italians to turn into the Tornado they might be in trouble.

The one likely in trouble in that scenario may be... F-16 in Europe. Post 1968 pr so AVS had become NKF-75 as an F-104 replacement retaining the variable wing but removing the VSTOL requirement, in effect a single engined, single seater Tornado likely with an F100 engine. Then Britain got into the project, effectively hijacked it and we've got instead Tornado while Canada and the Netherlands left the project. Remove the UK involvement and you end with the Germans sticking to NKF with the Canadians and Dutch likely going along as probably does Italy.

But you've just removed the Dutch from the quartet of European countries buying F-16. Which likely means the Belgians also go their way, in OTL they were the most likely of the four to waver in OTL there was a lot of political pressure to go for Mirage F1E instead.

Images courtesy of secretprojects forum

 

[jsb]

The Germans wanted an all weather low level interdictor/nuclear strike and maritime attack aircraft. An F16 is a light day fighter/bomber. In no way could a 70s/80s F16 do what a Tornado could. The Germans had a look at the Buccaneer before choosing the Starfighter, which was a much more likely buy for the role than an F16. Add on Germany wanted as much of the production as possible. Would Lockheed build F-16s in Germany?

That sounds more like the F-16XL Strike Falcon....

If UK had gone by itself with TSR2 etc and was out, then would Germany & Italy going for an F-16XL Strike Falcon in very late 70s/early 80s not work? With the other Europeans already building F16s this would look like the best for a standard NATO fighter bomber? Or would they need to go with an earlier strike normal F16 due to Tornado service date? But I think that would work for Germany as its range would be fine, and the lower cost would mean more aircraft?

 

[Riain]

Then Britain got into the project, effectively hijacked it

It's amazing how much Britain bought to the table in terms of design and technology, so much so that with a mere 42% workshare they could hijack the design.

 

[Riain]

If UK had gone by itself with TSR2 etc and was out, then would Germany & Italy going for an F-16XL Strike Falcon in very late 70s/early 80s not work? With the other Europeans already building F16s this would look like the best for a standard NATO fighter bomber? Or would they need to go with an earlier strike normal F16 due to Tornado service date? But I think that would work for Germany as its range would be fine, and the lower cost would mean more aircraft?

The Tornado entered service in 1979 as an all
weather, deep strike aircraft and the F16 in 1978 as a lightweight day fighter.

The F16XL didn't have its first flight until 1982 and flew for a couple of years. So it won't be able to enter service until close to a decade after the Tornado, leaving the Luftwaffe with a major capability gap in the strike role.

 

[Lascaris]

It's amazing how much Britain bought to the table in terms of design and technology, so much so that with a mere 42% workshare they could hijack the design.

Britain turned what was supposed to be an F-104G replacement into UKVG. Good for it, the French before leaving the group were trying the same thing and failed, but it was not what the other members were initially looking for who wanted a cheaper, lighter, single engined, have I mentioned cheaper? machine. So I'll stick to what I said about hijacking the project, which I'll note is a different thing than the design. There's little doubt that Tornado was a better aircraft than the German led NKF would had been in the strike role. There is also little doubt that it was a more pricey aircraft closer to the UK specks than the initial ones.

 

[Anime Ninja]

What about the F-18L? It was a bit of a non-starter but if you have Germany wanting it you might have Canada and Australia going that route?

 

[Riain]

Britain turned what was supposed to be an F-104G replacement into UKVG. Good for it, the French before leaving the group were trying the same thing and failed, but it was not what the other members were initially looking for who wanted a cheaper, lighter, single engined, have I mentioned cheaper? machine. So I'll stick to what I said about hijacking the project, which I'll note is a different thing than the design. There's little doubt that Tornado was a better aircraft than the German led NKF would had been in the strike role. There is also little doubt that it was a more pricey aircraft closer to the UK specks than the initial ones.

The EWR-F-H A400 AVS that the US and WG was working on 1964-68 was a reasonably large and complex aircraft, similar to the UKVG in many respects.

Bear in mind too the general political environment of the time. In 1957 when WGermany selected the F104G it had been in NATO 2 years, occupied 8 years earlier and defeated 12 years earlier. It was probably only politically acceptable that they have a small, short range fighter-bomber. Fast forward 10 years you have the US mired in Vietnam, BAOR down from 80,000 to 55,000, the pound devalued and British power on the wane. It's probably politically acceptable that wealthy West Germany shoulder some of the security burden with advanced and expensive capabilities that previously were the exclusive preserves of the US and UK.

 

[Riain]

What about the F-18L? It was a bit of a non-starter but if you have Germany wanting it you might have Canada and Australia going that route?

The regular F/A18A, which is a much better aircraft than the same year F16, entered service in 1983. I can't imagine that the F18L would enter service any earlier than that, which is too late for the Luftwaffe.

However if the Germans did want the Hornet they might be able to work out something with one of their allies to cover that 4-5 year capability gap.

 

[Lascaris]

The EWR-F-H A400 AVS that the US and WG was working on 1964-68 was a reasonably large and complex aircraft, similar to the UKVG in many respects.

Bear in mind too the general political environment of the time. In 1957 when WGermany selected the F104G it had been in NATO 2 years, occupied 8 years earlier and defeated 12 years earlier. It was probably only politically acceptable that they have a small, short range fighter-bomber. Fast forward 10 years you have the US mired in Vietnam, BAOR down from 80,000 to 55,000, the pound devalued and British power on the wane. It's probably politically acceptable that wealthy West Germany shoulder some of the security burden with advanced and expensive capabilities that previously were the exclusive preserves of the US and UK.

To put my engineer's hat on AVS was not a "reasonably large and complex aircraft" it was insanity. Who's in his right mind tries to build a V/STOLV variable wing aircraft? That's the kind of overcomplicated design you know it's likely to be failing from the concept phase. As such NKF was a much needed return to sanity.

 

[Mike D]

In that case, then the Germans and Italians can go for the TSR2 instead

The Germans didn't want the Tornado to be too big or long ranged in case it looked like a strategic threat to the Soviets, I can't see them wanting an aircraft that is purely designed as a strategic threat to the Soviets.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

First thought is the F-16 XL. It came a bit late but if there is a clear German requirement they might start the development earlier.

Second is... well they want a dual-seat, variable wing heavy fighter bomber... why not the Tomcat?