If you want Britain to go war to defend Nicaragua, you're going to have to give them a major interest in doing so. They could keep the USA from annexing it, but that would also mean war all along the USA/BNA border.
Was American Nicaragua via filibuster ever plausible?
- Thread starter M.R.L
- Start date
They'd still need a conflicting interest to be willing to do that.
Honestly if Walker somehow stabilizes Nicaragua, it’ll be because a lack of outside involvement. The more the rest of the world forgets about him, the better for him and his rule. The more help he gets directly from the US, the more the UK will back his enemies.
Personally I think the most likely outcome to Walker successfully conquering Nicaragua and holding it, is that it might become the de facto confederate government in exile. Especially if it attracts a decent amount of Southerners who escape there during or after the fall of the confederacy.
Personally I think the most likely outcome to Walker successfully conquering Nicaragua and holding it, is that it might become the de facto confederate government in exile. Especially if it attracts a decent amount of Southerners who escape there during or after the fall of the confederacy.
Would you be interested in a TL where apparently William walker unites central America or at least secure nicaragua modernizes it with the help of US and European investors and loans. Practically ittl he leaves his beliefs in exchange for him securing his presidency. Later Going porfiriato, as there are like lacking of it I realized? Mainly TLs about central America and Latin america
I'm a bit tempted actually. What do you think about it?
In my opinion Walker's chances are somewhat underrated here. I do believe he had an opportunity to succeed in his plans for Nicaragua.
In regards to the thread question of integrating Nicaragua into America however that runs into a number of other issues. First of course is that Walker wanted to rule his own country and was against annexation, and in that regard the vast majority of Nicaragua's populace would be in agreement with him. It is possible that American settlers invited into Nicaragua then try to fillibuster or coup against Walker in an effort to bring it into the states once they realize he doesn't agree with their goals. Somewhat similar to what occurred in Texas and Hawaii.
America itself seems pretty dysfunctional right now. At the time Walker was active they were already itching towards the civil war. It seems difficult for Congress to agree to acquire new states when they can't even agree on keeping their existing territories.
In regards to the thread question of integrating Nicaragua into America however that runs into a number of other issues. First of course is that Walker wanted to rule his own country and was against annexation, and in that regard the vast majority of Nicaragua's populace would be in agreement with him. It is possible that American settlers invited into Nicaragua then try to fillibuster or coup against Walker in an effort to bring it into the states once they realize he doesn't agree with their goals. Somewhat similar to what occurred in Texas and Hawaii.
America itself seems pretty dysfunctional right now. At the time Walker was active they were already itching towards the civil war. It seems difficult for Congress to agree to acquire new states when they can't even agree on keeping their existing territories.
Do you think it's possible that walker doesn't go reinstituted slavery in Nicaragua or is it too ingrained to him
- Maintaining the Clayton–Bulwer Treaty
- Protection of the Mosquito Coast, Bay Islands, and British Honduras/Belize
- London's financial insurance within the region through consistent bonds, debts, trades, and investments that they could lose
From Walker's pov slavery was necessary in the long term to develop Nicaragua's economy and to attract American settlers and business. The idea being they would get black slaves from the American South and potentially from the Afro-Indiginous Mosquito Coast if they could ever get it from Britain.
Now Walker does seem to have been aware of the controversy and political difficulties of bringing slavery into Nicaragua. His measures to reintroduce it (along with his laws setting English as the national language) were only drafted after the war had decisively turned against the filibusters and their local allies abandoning them after a series of military defeats. Without local troops, Walker was aiming the new laws to attract further American volunteers. Nicaragua at that time didn't actually have much of an African population so rather than trying to enslave the Nicaraguans it was to encourage American southerners to come down and fight, knowing they'll be able to bring their slaves after the war was over. It also ironically didn't really work because the pool of pro-slavery manpower Walker thought was available was instead preoccupied by traveling to another conflict to fight for slavery: Bleeding Kansas.
In that case however it was clearly a wartime desperation measure after Walker had already lost his capital and support. And at that point the war was lost anyways. Before then Walker had been very careful to balance the interests of the Nicaraguans and Americans in his army. A more militarily successful William Walker would have approached the situation more slowly. Which also opens the possibility he might not have a chance to do it at all if outside factors (particularly threats from Britain or America) prevent him.
So if walker had instead like found the UK or France as a backer, bringing aid, investments and loans, building stuff as the USA doesnt wanna. It's very likely that if they say stop reintroducing that he'll stop it. Technically this is assuming that he successfully secured his regime. Also how does the elite apparently feel about slavery being reintroduced as like his backers being the liberals might not want it back also alongside the conservatives as he reunified the country under a new coalition during his filibuster
I did some research apparently Vanderbilt funded the coalition of Central American nations who toppled him as walker went and instead found a new backer with alot more money. Technically being Charles Morgan and C.K Garisson. If they had sent more aid walker might survive and even reunite central America.
Apparently he stopped a civil war, tried to regenerate and heal the wounds and division of the conservatives and liberals in Nicaragua. And became the defacto leader of it after.
Apparently he stopped a civil war, tried to regenerate and heal the wounds and division of the conservatives and liberals in Nicaragua. And became the defacto leader of it after.
Belize is not nor has it ever been part of Nicaragua. The Mosquito Coast does overlap. The Clayton-Bulwer treaty could be an issue, but that would depend on the POD. Britain can have conflicting interests but it's not assured, and like I said, I'm arguing that a successful filibuster is the most likely outcome, just that's its plausible.
What does Belize not being a part of Nicaragua have anything to do with this? A deeply pro-American state that has considerably altered the balance of power in Central America puts it in threat. Its security implies Walker is satisfied with just Nicaragua, which I doubt he would be. Considering the POD is between his entrance into Nicaragua and winning the Filibuster war: Britain's presence in Central America doesn't change, the exact POD is irrelevant. Britain's interests are pretty self-explanatory, and Walker's ascension is rooted against them.
The USA had a long border with BNA/Canada and there hasn't been a war over it in 200 years. Like I said it's possible to get British intervention, but it's not guaranteed. The OP asked if a successful filibuster is plausible. That's not the same thing as asking if it's likely or if it could fail in ways different from OTL. A successful filibuster is not ASB.
I guess we have some precedent regarding proposed 19th-century American overseas territory in Central America:
"...the Yucatecan delegation in Washington made a formal offer for the annexation of Yucatán to the United States...President James Knox Polk was pleased with the idea and the "Yucatán Bill" passed the U.S. House of Representatives, but was discarded by the Senate.[49][41][50] The war with Mexico had become more complicated than anticipated, and the Congress of the United States did not want a second war with the indigenous of Yucatán."
"...the Yucatecan delegation in Washington made a formal offer for the annexation of Yucatán to the United States...President James Knox Polk was pleased with the idea and the "Yucatán Bill" passed the U.S. House of Representatives, but was discarded by the Senate.[49][41][50] The war with Mexico had become more complicated than anticipated, and the Congress of the United States did not want a second war with the indigenous of Yucatán."
Any war along the US/Can long border would not be eventful, it's wild prairies full of indigenous peoples. A successful Filibuster requires its survival, it won't survive if it butts heads with Britain, which is essentially inevitable.
I guess a core part of the question is how likely are Pierce, Buchanan, Polk, Tyler, or a TTL expansionist President to get annexation through Congress after a Nicaraguan government requests annexation as a slave state, assuming said President absolutely wants to? Does it only require a large Democrat plus Southern/acquiescent Whig majority? Or will it be a major uphill battle for said President even then?
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Its... possible I suppose. Many of Walker's fillibusters were various Europeans who didn't really understand the American fixation on slavery. And William Walker was an immense racist but not necessarily in the same way that the future confederates tried to push slavery simply for the sake of slavery. Instead he put more emphasis (in the words from his own writings) on how he was going to civilize the inferior Hispanics with the Anglo-Saxon values of the superior White race and revitalize their country.
Which is still pretty damn racist. But so were most people in the 19th century.
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Well if he stayed in Nicaragua maybe like secured his regime, do you think about his opinion mainly changing as apparently majority of the people there are not white and the whites there are mainly Criollos or even the peninsulares surviving not really giving care about slavery and such. Technically viewjng them like how the criollosand rich view the people. Mainly based on wealth instead of race