Some time in summer of 1942 seems likeliest. Situation after Kharkiv was quite bad. With Hitler dead and Germans offering some sort of reasonable terms? It might work. Stalin knows he can stay in power and is not going to try anything for atleast few years. With all of the Luftwaffe transferred to Europe, things in Mediterranean are going to get nasty.
It wouldn't be surrender, it would be negotiating, but with the Soviets accepting the loss of a lot of land in return of some and an end to hostilities.Why would Stalin agree to surrender?
It wouldn't be surrender, it would be negotiating, but with the Soviets accepting the loss of a lot of land in return of some and an end to hostilities.
Why would Stalin agree to surrender?
Lack of hindsight, fear for the future. In August 1942 the Germans are running unchecked into the Caucasus, have pushed into Stalingrad and haven't been contained, are ripping apart anything the Soviets have thrown against them, and are advancing deep into Egypt. Its only later that the Germans are clearly overextended and that wasn't clear by August. So with Hitler gone and Goering offering a Brest-Litovsk-lite deal is it that inconceivable that Stalin might not grab the only sure offer to save the USSR?Why would Stalin agree to this, then?
By 1942 to Britain the Word of Hitler and by extension the German State was valueless.
It would require a major change in leadership (ie the Nazi/National Socialist party) being effectively wipe out in a Coup and also for Germany to surrender most if not all of its hard won conquests at a point when it was at the height of its power in order for Britain to agree to any negotiated peace plan.
I think that this would be virtually impossible
After the 1st of the year 1942 was there any possibility of a negotiated end to WW2 in Europe? Obviously this assumes that the biggest obstacle, Hitler, would have to be removed, perhaps we can say as a POD if it makes it any easier that Hitler dies after DoWing the USA in December of natural causes or perhaps an overdose of amphetamines by Dr. Morell, leaving Goering in charge.
Would the Allies have taken a deal at the peak of Axis success in 1942 before they rolled back the tide and if so what sort of deal?
The evidence for the Soviets ever contemplated a separate peace is based on rumors and hearsay. No solid evidence for it has ever emerged. Stalin himself later observed that had the USSR attempted to make peace with Germany, the Soviet people would have probably revolted.
He is not going to accept surrender, but partitioning of Ukraine with some sort of buffer demilitarized zone?
It gives USSR breathing room and secures him in power. In summer of 1942 things looked bleak. Stalin was not hitler he was not a gambler, give a decent way out he might take it.
edit
To answer why directly, because with a treaty he is 100% guaranteed to be alive and in power. Without it from his POV in 1942.. not so much after Kharkiv disaster even 50/50 probably seemed like optimism.
What are you basing that on?With this treaty he is virtually 100% likely to be swinging from a lamppost once he is overthrown in a coup. There was no way the Soviet people would accept any sort of peace with Nazi Germany in Jan 1941, the Nazis simply pissed too many of them off!
http://www.jstor.org/stable/260160?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
http://www.jstor.org/stable/1861311?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
There does seem to be some legs to it and of course the Russians will never open that part of their archives.
May 24th, 1945, during a celebratory reception with his commanders. The statement has been echoed since by Soviet veterans, most notably by Pavel Sudoplatov who was supposedly one of the centers of such peace negotiations: "Stalin and the leadership sensed that any attempt at capitulation - in a war that was so harsh and unprecedented - would automatically ruin the leadership's ability to run the country."Where and when did he say that?
With this treaty he is virtually 100% likely to be swinging from a lamppost once he is overthrown in a coup. There was no way the Soviet people would accept any sort of peace with Nazi Germany in Jan 1941, the Nazis simply pissed too many of them off!
Your first source talks about negotiations which supposedly occurred in 1943 (not 1942) and sources the claims of some German. It also notes that the Soviets were demanding all of their territory back and were unwilling for a Brest-Litovsk kind of deal deal.
Your second source (which I've seen before) comes flat out and says that there was no real possibility of negotiations in 1941-42.
May 24th, 1945, during a celebratory reception with his commanders. The statement has been echoed since, most notably by Pavel Sudoplatov who was supposedly one of the centers of such peace negotiations: "Stalin and the leadership sensed that any attempt at capitulation - in a war that was so harsh and unprecedented - would automatically ruin the leadership's ability to run the country."
What are you basing that on?
Sure that was IOTL, I'm saying that if there were even talks IOTL pre-Kursk, then there is an option of doing it pre-Stalingrad for vastly different terms.
It says flat out on page 5:The 2nd source says that because Hitler was not willing; have Hitler dead and its a different story.
You can't get more specific then that.Very soon after June 1941 the Nazis proved by their behavior that so long as they retained the upper hand the only peace terms the Soviet Union could expect would be complete submission. Russia's sole alternative was to fight on, and any signs of faltering resolve would have, if anything, given further encouragement to the enemy; or even worse, they might make the dreaded Western reversal of alliances a self-fulfilling prophecy. Stalin could have been exasperated with the coalition, but he had to maintain it. On balance, therefore, any Russian efforts to come to terms with Germany before Stalingrad may be dismissed as mere products of anxious imagination.
By early 1942 the knowledge of atrocities wasn't really there only propaganda, which the Soviet government could reverse (like how they repeatedly pivoted on their alliance with Hitler). By 1942 other than the Einsatzgruppen, which was not really that well known until the Soviets liberated the areas where it happened, there had not been mass massacres of civilians, that would come later. So saying its your opinion with hindsight knowledge of events how the Soviets people would feel is not exactly historical evidence.Human nature, after the Nazi atrocities the Russians naturally wanted blood. If you go around mass murdering people they will want your blood. Unlike Stalin the Nazis didn't even pretend they were doing so to build a better future for Russia .
By early 1942 the knowledge of atrocities wasn't really there only propaganda, which the Soviet government could reverse (like how they repeatedly pivoted on their alliance with Hitler). By 1942 other than the Einsatzgruppen, which was not really that well known until the Soviets liberated the areas where it happened, there had not been mass massacres of civilians, that would come later. So saying its your opinion with hindsight knowledge of events how the Soviets people would feel is not exactly historical evidence.
No. Coup in USSR at any stage is a Western pipe dream. Stalin ruled through absolute fear. If he said, peace tomorrow. Then everyone would salute and say YES! By this point NKVD would not even need to shoot anyone for disobedience, they shot tortured and killed anyone who could, maybe potentially think of thinking about doing some thinking. They done it years ago. There is a reason Stalin was never threatened and Hitler had so many attempts at him.
USSR is run on one man decision that man is Stalin, if Stalin gets a good offer and in his sociopathic mind it makes sense. He will take it and that will be that.