It's often said that Japan for the first six-months threw a 'six' as a way of explaining her success. So, what happens if the Royal navy had metaphorically thrown a 'six'. How much more successful could it have been? Moreover I think it needs to be longer than six months - after all nullifying the threat of the Graf Spee was at least a 'five'..
I'll leave it to your imagination - but a few things spring to mind - Does Royal Oak get sunk, maybe not. Save Courageous, how much better during Norway campaign - save Glorious - how badly damaged are the twins?. ,
Six months only takes us to March 1940. Catching
Graf Spee will still be the major victory, and
Courageous not being lost on 17 September 1939 will help in the long run. If we go to 9 months or a year, we can save
Glorious . We can save her by having
Renown damage both
Scharnhorst and
Gneisenau off Vestfjord on 9 April.
Royal Oak was the best of the R's, having received an extensive modernization in the early '30s. Having her available means she could be doing some of the work
Revenge was forced into, or a fifth battleship for Somerville's Force B . The latter was the worst of the Rs and barely able to do 18 knots by the time of the war. She could be taken out of service sooner than September 1943.
Glorious was the Med Fleet carrier pre-war, when CinC Med Dudley Pound, and her then captain, Lumley Lyster came up with the idea to attack the Italian Fleet at Taranto. Lyster had trained
Glourious' men into razors for such an attack, Not losing
Glorious and
Courageous means that when Lyster comes to the Med Fleet (Operation Hats) with his flag on
Illustrious, he has three carriers to attack Taranto (
Glorious, Eagle, Illustrious). I would assume
Courageous would be the Home Fleet carrier, at least until
Victorious commissions.
If we can get
Courageous a refit in 1941, we have a fully ready carrier to send east with Phillips. That gives him indigenous reconnaissance, and he won't have to rely on the RAF for recon nor fighter cover (he requested both, and got neither prior to Force Z sortieing. That means he will have a better picture of where the enemy is, as well as where they are not, and the ability to strike at range. That means less time in the danger zone, and could very well mean Force Z survives. That puts the RN in a pretty good position for the rest of the war from 1942 on. Adding
Courageous to Somerville's historic Eastern Fleet OOB for the Japanese Indian Ocean Raid puts him in a better position, as well as having two additional fast capital ships, including one with a modern AA suite.
My thoughts,