Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL

[CrimsonKing]

Another suggestion: FDR. What's he doing? I mean, yeah he isn't president any more, but I just don't see him sitting quietly and watching as the Axis implacably march to world/Eurasian domination. Also, what's happening in China? Have they made peace? Or are they slugging on?

You have a good point about FDR, as long as he had some kind of power or public voice he certainly wouldn't stand for that.

I'd imagine Roosevelt being a vocal advocate for Britain, but now they're out of the war. I could also imagine him being involved with fundraising and more direct efforts like Chennault's in aid of China.

But China is a classic stalemate. There's no way the Japanese can occupy the whole country, and the Nationalists don't have the means to drive the Japanese out of their coastal enclaves. (The Japanese military in OTL had begun to realize that this was a quagmire well before Pearl Harbor.) The best the Japanese could really hope for was a treaty that would give them Manchuko and maybe Shanghai and other port cities, which is a bit redundant if they have Hong Kong.

Huh, so you can get something through Japanese skulls after all, even without occupying their homeland.

With that said, peace with China, well I think the minimum Japan would ask for peace would be the Chinese recognize Manchukuo and Mengjiang, as well as Japanese annexation of Hong Kong (that's right, no more lease) and Hainan. They could ask for amnesty for Wang Jing-Wei and his collaborators, but more likely they'd be exiled to Japan with Chiang agreeing never to demand their extradition (they could still be useful as governors or something of Hainan or Hong Kong). The eastern Chinese cities can go back to China, Japan already has Hong Kong as you mentioned, no point in getting greedy.

Speaking of Hong Kong, is it just the city, or does it include the Kowloon Peninsula and the rest of the New Territories too?

Finally, plenty in the IJA will be unhappy with minimal gains (though I imagine the IJN will be quite satisfied with gaining Hainan), but if it can be sold as 'freeing up troops for refurbishment and reinforcement for a potential push into the USSR' it's likely they'll swallow the pill and accept what's on the table.

Actually, events elsewhere with a focus on Japan and the US is going to be the subject of the next update.

With regard to the China war, how significant is the flow of outside assistance to the Nationalists being cut off? My impression was that they were pretty dependent on it, but I'm not an expert in this area and welcome further information.

Well, moving German farmers into Poland (and maybe Ukraine and/or Byelorussia), enslaving the Slavs... can always wait for final victory.

And it SHOULD wait. If Wagner even plans on doing this.

Indeed, timing is, as always, of considerable importance.

 

[Benjamin the Donkey]

With regard to the China war, how significant is the flow of outside assistance to the Nationalists being cut off? My impression was that they were pretty dependent on it, but I'm not an expert in this area and welcome further information.

Western aid to China was less about national survival than maintaining the Chinese army as an offensive threat and keeping the KMT in power, since China was ultimately unconquerable by the Japanese. (Hence Chiang Kai-shek's refusal to negotiate a peace, plus hope that other powers would become involved in the war.) More significant to the war effort was the US embargo of Japan, but with TTL's Japanese access to strategic materials from the Soviet Union and the Dutch East Indies, this becomes much less damaging.

In OTL, China received military aid from Britain, the US, the USSR (contingent upon a united Communist-Nationalist front against Japan) and (before 1938) Germany. In TTL, of these, Germany and the Soviets are off the table as members of the Axis, and Britain is prohibited by treaty. That leaves the US, but the only supply routes go through Burma or India, meaning any aid would have to be secret, under the table, and very limited. Faced with a well-supplied Japan and little or no outside aid, I expect Chiang would have made peace, especially considering the internal Communist threat.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

When Barbarossa comes, Chiang can always take back Mongolia and Xinjiang (they were communist states), which would slightly soothe the wounded pride of China.

Also, Japan doesn't need China's resources as much as before, with its new South Asian colonies.
So, economically at least, Japan can settle for Manchuria and Hong Kong only.

That said, China is a juggernaut, and if left unchecked, will overshadow Japan someday, economically and military. Meaning Japanese empire (be it Manchuria, Korea or even SE Asia) will become untenable, with powerful China right next to it.

So, Japan should ask for military limitations on China (just enough to defend itself and no more), and a DMZ.
Plus unrestricted access to Chinese markets (if China develops, Japan might as well profit from it).

In exchange for those concessions, China would get back all conquered territory (other than Manchukuo and Hong Kong). And the IJA would not feel like "Japan abandons her conquests for nothing in return".

 

[luis3007]

Add Hainan and all other offshore islands and Japan would be smart to negotiate such a deal.

 

[CrimsonKing]

With regard to the China war, how significant is the flow of outside assistance to the Nationalists being cut off? My impression was that they were pretty dependent on it, but I'm not an expert in this area and welcome further information.

Western aid to China was less about national survival than maintaining the Chinese army as an offensive threat and keeping the KMT in power, since China was ultimately unconquerable by the Japanese. (Hence Chiang Kai-shek's refusal to negotiate a peace, plus hope that other powers would become involved in the war.) More significant to the war effort was the US embargo of Japan, but with TTL's Japanese access to strategic materials from the Soviet Union and the Dutch East Indies, this becomes much less damaging.

In OTL, China received military aid from Britain, the US, the USSR (contingent upon a united Communist-Nationalist front against Japan) and (before 1938) Germany. In TTL, of these, Germany and the Soviets are off the table as members of the Axis, and Britain is prohibited by treaty. That leaves the US, but the only supply routes go through Burma or India, meaning any aid would have to be secret, under the table, and very limited. Faced with a well-supplied Japan and little or no outside aid, I expect Chiang would have made peace, especially considering the internal Communist threat.

When Barbarossa comes, Chiang can always take back Mongolia and Xinjiang (they were communist states), which would slightly soothe the wounded pride of China.

Also, Japan doesn't need China's resources as much as before, with its new South Asian colonies.
So, economically at least, Japan can settle for Manchuria and Hong Kong only.

That said, China is a juggernaut, and if left unchecked, will overshadow Japan someday, economically and military. Meaning Japanese empire (be it Manchuria, Korea or even SE Asia) will become untenable, with powerful China right next to it.

So, Japan should ask for military limitations on China (just enough to defend itself and no more), and a DMZ.
Plus unrestricted access to Chinese markets (if China develops, Japan might as well profit from it).

In exchange for those concessions, China would get back all conquered territory (other than Manchukuo and Hong Kong). And the IJA would not feel like "Japan abandons her conquests for nothing in return".

Add Hainan and all other offshore islands and Japan would be smart to negotiate such a deal.

I very much appreciate these comments. As you can see, the events described in the update below closely reflect what was suggested.

In the Light of the Rising Sun

Nearly finished aircraft constructed with raw materials imported from Southeast Asia.
​

While the German high command laid its plans for future wars beneath the cold electric lights which illuminated its headquarters in Berlin, much international attention had shifted elsewhere, to Asia, where the long, brutal six-year conflict between Japan and China was finally coming to an end. It had finally become apparent to both Chiang Kai-shek and the decision makers at IGHQ that the war was unalterably deadlocked and that neither side had anything to gain from further prolonging hostilities. Logistical constraints prevented the Imperial Japanese Army from advancing far enough into western China to win a complete victory over the Nationalists, who themselves were equally incapable, especially after the virtually complete cutoff of foreign assistance ensured by the Treaty of Tehran, of expelling the IJA from the eastern coastal areas. Therefore, in February, Chiang reached out via intermediaries in the United States to Tokyo to request a ceasefire, which was granted. Peace negotiations began in Shanghai shortly thereafter. The status of the Chinese east coast quickly emerged as the main area of contention, as many of the more zealous IJA leaders were unwilling to come to any agreement which did not place much of it under some sort of direct Japanese control. In the end, however, calmer heads prevailed, as Japan’s high level leadership was determined to find a way to extricate themselves from the quagmire. In the end, the terms of the Treaty of Shanghai, signed on April 2nd (just two days before Wagner, thousands of miles away, confirmed the decision for war with the Soviet Union) stipulated “1. China is to recognize the independence of Manchukuo and Mengjiang, and the inclusion of Inner Mongolia by the latter. 2. China is to recognize Japanese control of Hong Kong, its outlying regions, and the island of Hainan. 3. The east coast is to be a demilitarized zone, within which Japanese companies are not to be subject to tariffs or import fines. 4. The foregoing accepted, Japan is to withdraw from areas occupied since the beginning of the war.”

Tin mined in Malaya and shipped to Japan.​

Although some of Japan’s leadership was still concerned about the possible challenge which a future China could mount to the Japanese Empire in the long run, the overwhelming feeling felt throughout the entire nation was one of relief that the war was finally over. To restore a sense of normality to the economy, the units of the IJA raised since 1937 were disbanded, with the Army to focus mainly on improving its equipment and training in the event of a rematch against the Soviet Union, which seemed increasingly likely the greater the number of indications there were of an imminent falling out between Germany and the USSR as the spring of 1942 grew warmer. The IJN was to protect the exposed shipping routes from Southeast Asia through the South China Sea from possible interference on the part of the US, although virtually all were well aware that there was little chance of success alone in a protracted war with America, which put a high premium on reducing the risk of direct conflict. Malaya and nominally Dutch Indonesia were the two colonies in Japan’s sphere of influence subject to the most direct management from Tokyo, as the former provided valuable tin and rubber and the latter oil. Indochina remained somewhat more under de facto French control than Indonesia did under Holland, but Petain attached a lesser significance than did his predecessors to the colony, being preoccupied with the great gains in Africa. Burma was placed under the State of Myanmar, a somewhat autonomous puppet regime. A formal alliance with Siam was also concluded.

Former President Roosevelt warning of Axis ambitions.​

The dramatic expansion of German, Japanese, and Soviet influence throughout the Eastern Hemisphere was seen with considerable alarm in the United States, many of whom urged a closer relationship with Britain as a response. The most prominent of these was Franklin Roosevelt, who still held great approval on the part of the American public for his role in leading the United States through the Great Depression, in addition to the normal influence held by former presidents. In one of the many public addresses he made in the cause of closer Anglo-American ties, he warned “It is a great error, my fellow citizens, to think that the greed of the Fascists and their Communist allies would be satisfied with even the entirety of Europe, Asia, and Africa under their sway, which they already nearly have in any case. Britain, our ally of the last Great War, is the bulwark of freedom in the Old World, that the tyranny of the Axis empires not stretch into the New.” Nevertheless, many others held with equal firmness the belief that the vast expanses of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans rendered void any significant threat from the Axis Alliance, and such voices tended to predominate, albeit not by a great margin, in the Dewey Administration. The sleeping giant was awake, but was content, for the moment at least, to watch and wait.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

I can see Dewey signing a security treaty with the British, sort of an Anglo-American version of NATO.
Interesting about Japan. How have they become this sane?

 

[Mackus]

I am also curious about Japanese bowing out so gracefully.
Continuing war might've been bad idea, but anyone who argued in favour of peace would risk more than his career, since military officers were fond of murdering those who in their view were guilty of insufficiently loving the Emperor and Japan.

 

[Praetor98]

I am also curious about Japanese bowing out so gracefully.
Continuing war might've been bad idea, but anyone who argued in favour of peace would risk more than his career, since military officers were fond of murdering those who in their view were guilty of insufficiently loving the Emperor and Japan.

The Emperor might well have said that it was his will that peace come to pass. There is a time for peace as well as war.

 

[cortz#9]

I agree it might seem unlike the Japanese to suddenly become sensible but they just won a war and a good chunk of new territory and cooler heads could convince the war hawks that new opportunities beckon in the North.
There were a good number of Japanese army officers who wanted to go to war with the USSR, some to get revenge for the war they in 39, some because the communist murdered their Czar and they found this an insult to their own Emperor.

If Wagner is also consulting with the Japanese about his plans for the East, then maybe the crazier Japanese could be convinced that this peace is just temporary.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

So the Pacific War is averted.

Personnally, I can see Japan accepting such a peace. It's a clear victory on China. Japan has also just conquered SE Asia and beaten Britain. So their pride is well. And yes, a lot of officers favored Option North because sheer anti-communism (plus enmity with Russia).

If Japan is smart, the IJA will sit at Soviet border during Barbarossa, and not actually attack. Which will still help Germany.

And only cross the border, to take Outer Manchuria, and maybe Mongolia and a bit of Siberia, all the way to Baikal Lake, when the Soviets are badly beaten and have to withdraw.
Which they will. European Russia (and to a lesser extent Caucasus and Central Asia) are the Soviet Heartland, not Far Eastern Siberia. So if they are really desperate they will just let the Japanese take whatever they want.

If Soviet Union really crumbles, Japan won't have to conquer all of this in one go, and will have more time (to deploy its army so far, with the supply train).

There are a lot of resources in that area, and it provides a bulwark against Russian or Chinese resurgence.

 

[Mackus]

The Emperor might well have said that it was his will that peace come to pass. There is a time for peace as well as war.

The thing with 1930s Japanese military love for Emperor, was that it was mostly divorced from actually obeying emperor. If emperor tells you to do something that is contrary to how you're used to express your love for him, its because his traitorous advisors have poisoned his mind, and for his own good you must save him from himself by killing anyone who looks as if he doesn't love emperor as much as you do.
I mean, you know that you love emperor more than anyone, so you cannot be the one who's in the wrong.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

I can see Dewey signing a security treaty with the British, sort of an Anglo-American version of NATO.
Interesting about Japan. How have they become this sane?

As others have pointed out, many in the Japanese High Command were already bitterly aware they were in a stalemate. And it's not like they lost the war: the Chinese were forced to acknowledge Manchukuo and Menjiang, which is a large chunk of Northern China, and the former is a critical resource area to boot. Hainan and Hong Kong provide/make it easier for Japanese power projection into the South China Sea, and East China is demilitarized, which provides for a convenient tripwire should China ever turn hostile. Japan also have Nanjing and Shanghai as effective concessions. The IJN and army moderates would be satisfied with this, and with preparations for a potential war with the USSR apparently an open secret among the high command, the radicals would probably accept such 'meager' gains for a greater prize in the future.

Speaking of the IJN, actually AFAIK most of them were aware they couldn't win a long war against America, though apart from Yonai and Yamamoto most didn't dare voice this publicly. It was implied in their obsession with surprise attack and decisive battle though, something to 'shock' America into negotiating before the war dragged out. Completely erroneously of course: while 1905 Russia could be 'shocked' into a quick peace (and they weren't exactly a naval power of note), America of any period is a completely different beast. BTW, seeing as the IJN's primary role in a future war is to secure the vital lifelines from SE Asia, does this mean they'll be shoring up ASW doctrines and tech? The Japanese have something of an investment in Germany/the Battle of the Atlantic, given the German use of Japanese-derived oxygen torpedoes, so I wouldn't be surprised if they wanted to know everything they could of how they performed...and with it, information on how damaging a submarine blockade against an island nation could be. Given German respect for the Americans ITTL, the American naval expansion plan, and Japan's key role as the Axis of the Pacific, I can see the Germans urging the IJN (who will probably be launching their own modernization program to match the IJA which is modernizing for war with the Soviets) to learn from the British example. The Axis actually have competent strategists this time around, so I don't really see them - Germany being the de facto leader/first among equals of the Axis - neglecting any aspect of the global strategy they need to win.

Finally, we have the security treaty with Britain. Personally I think this will be difficult. The isolationists are going strong after all, and they wouldn't accept a treaty that obliges America to enter a war of aggression. What's more trade with Fascist Europe has been mentioned as profitable. No, while a mutual defense treaty is possible, it'd be defensive in nature, i.e. if Britain declared war simply because an opportunity for revenge against Germany appeared, then America would/should not be obliged to join. Only when Britain is attacked would/should they be.

 

[Benjamin the Donkey]

So Japan gets the most complete victory possible under the circumstances. Still, it's a devil's bargain, with the payback probably well beyond the scope of this thread. They've defeated and humiliated a sleeping giant that will never forget. (Just look at the anti-Japanese hysteria that occasionally boils over today in China in OTL, and they won.) Of course, Britain did the same with the Opium Wars, but they didn't have to live with China as a neighbor. From this point on, Japan has to make sure that China never modernizes, or at least never comes anywhere close to Japanese military capabilities. The development of a real Chinese air force alone (capable of hitting Japan) would be a disaster.

Barring some preventable incident, I can't see the US getting involved in a German-Soviet war. Isolationism is strong, most of the desire to get involved that did exist was out of sympathy with Britain, and there's not much moral or political reason to favor the USSR over TTL Germany--quite the opposite, if you're an anti-communist.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

So Japan gets the most complete victory possible under the circumstances. Still, it's a devil's bargain, with the payback probably well beyond the scope of this thread. They've defeated and humiliated a sleeping giant that will never forget. (Just look at the anti-Japanese hysteria that occasionally boils over today in China in OTL, and they won.) Of course, Britain did the same with the Opium Wars, but they didn't have to live with China as a neighbor. From this point on, Japan has to make sure that China never modernizes, or at least never comes anywhere close to Japanese military capabilities. The development of a real Chinese air force alone (capable of hitting Japan) would be a disaster.

Well Japan could always develop a nuclear deterrent, probably with German help.

Barring some preventable incident, I can't see the US getting involved in a German-Soviet war. Isolationism is strong, most of the desire to get involved that did exist was out of sympathy with Britain, and there's not much moral or political reason to favor the USSR over Germany--quite the opposite, if you're an anti-communist.

Quite, on the contrary, they could/would greatly profit selling a lot to the European Axis. Though, if the British are vengeful enough, they might attack the Axis while they're busy with the Soviets. Although, it could/would be a huge opportunity for Petain. France is the Axis' bulwark against invasion from the British Isles. If he manages to catch Britain by the ear and throw them out of the continent, then he could potentially lever France into a relatively-equal position to Germany in the European Axis block ala OTL EU, which has both France and Germany as their biggest/most important members. And while Germany is the European Axis' industrial backbone, and has colonies of its own (again), France is still the colonial power in Africa. If Petain can win the prestige needed to lever France as equal to Germany in Europe, well his place in history is assured. And given Wagner's past allusion to Charlemagne, it won't be easy (if at all) to force France back down (IIRC France and Germany were the Carolingian Empire), and he'll have to compromise with Petain. In Western Europe and Africa, at least. Eastern and Central Europe remain Germany's backyard by virtue of geography.

 

[Gudestein]

I am just wondering here. Cut off from help from outside, Japan with South-East asia as its ressource bed.
Could they not ultimately subdue China, or at least remain on the offensive long enough to actually control the Chinese coast after the cease-fire.
Seems like they have a Wagner as well. I think terms under these conditions would have been much harder.

 

[Linense]

It's a great update. Japan gets the best piece of cake under those circumstances.

However, it is quite possible that there is some kind of new conflict of Japan with the Republic of China if Chiang Kai-shek exploits the German invasion of the Soviet Union to recover Mongolia, Tannu Tuva and Xinjiang, while the Japanese are waiting as the Soviets withdraw a considerable amount of their eastern troops to stop the invasion of the European Axis. In addition, Japan will have to make a considerable effort to create a huge air force capable of threatening all of China as its main deterrent -as long as the Germans give them technological support to achieve the nuclear weapon- to stop their desire for revenge by the Japanese invasion that they suffered.

On the other hand, I hope that in the next chapter can see the internal panorama of Britain, as well as of the neutral European countries can be glimpsed, and as the recent war has affected the European colonies in Africa and Asia, since it have certainly aroused their desire for independence (especially in the Middle East).

 

[245]

whats happening in Latin america.

 

[Praetor98]

The thing with 1930s Japanese military love for Emperor, was that it was mostly divorced from actually obeying emperor. If emperor tells you to do something that is contrary to how you're used to express your love for him, its because his traitorous advisors have poisoned his mind, and for his own good you must save him from himself by killing anyone who looks as if he doesn't love emperor as much as you do.
I mean, you know that you love emperor more than anyone, so you cannot be the one who's in the wrong.

They dare question Him?! The orders of the Emperor are absolute!

 

[Benjamin the Donkey]

Well Japan could always develop a nuclear deterrent, probably with German help.

That or a massive, long-range conventional bomber fleet. But seriously, look at the lack of coordination and overall dysfunction of the pre-Pearl Harbor Japanese military command. Then imagine that gang with nuclear weapons. Terrifying.

 

[Cregan]

1. Japan should have gotten military basing rights/treaty ports/concessions in Shanghai and other coastal cities.
2. All of Inner Mongolia annexed into Menjiang.
3. Japanese zaibatsu should not be subject to any trade barriers (tariffs, import restrictions, etc) throughout all of China, and in fact should get a favourable trade deal (similar to the one between Petain and Wagner).

Otherwise good update.