Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL

[Linense]

Since Germany uses Congolese uranium, will France be involved in the project ?

And what about Italy ? And Spain ?

I very much doubt that Wagner shares something like that with any of his allies, but if he decides to air the progress of the German nuclear program to its main allies, the only strategic allies that could feel completely secure are Japan and Francoist Spain.

France could turn against III Reich at any time, and Italy and Germany have too many competing interests in the same territories (and even both have territorial ambitions on several territories as South Tyrol and Switzerland) to trust it beyond their fascist regimes. In contrast, the strategic interests of Germany and Spain do not collide, but complement each other perfectly: both countries want to keep Britain and France as weak as possible, and are interested in having Italy as their ally or having it as submissive as possible to their own interests. And the same goes for Japan, although their main enemies in common are the Soviet Union and Britain, and are interested in take away the United States of their own spheres of influence.

 

[CrimsonKing]

I am not sure this makes sense. What is the driver for the Tizard mission being on time ITTL?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tizard_Mission

It isn't, but I'm not convinced the US atomic program would be significantly slowed down because it's been butterflied away.

Since Germany uses Congolese uranium, will France be involved in the project ?

And what about Italy ? And Spain ?

They won't be involved in the sense of participating in the research, but could be said to in an economic way.

I very much doubt that Wagner shares something like that with any of his allies, but if he decides to air the progress of the German nuclear program to its main allies, the only strategic allies that could feel completely secure are Japan and Francoist Spain.

France could turn against III Reich at any time, and Italy and Germany have too many competing interests in the same territories (and even both have territorial ambitions on several territories as South Tyrol and Switzerland) to trust it beyond their fascist regimes. In contrast, the strategic interests of Germany and Spain do not collide, but complement each other perfectly: both countries want to keep Britain and France as weak as possible, and are interested in having Italy as their ally or having it as submissive as possible to their own interests. And the same goes for Japan, although their main enemies in common are the Soviet Union and Britain, and are interested in take away the United States of their own spheres of influence.

The terms of the Second Treaty of Versailles prevent France from militarizing its border with Germany, and the combination of competent intelligence and the German military assets already based in France means that were Petain to try to turn against Germany, the OKV would have plenty of time to execute something like Case Anton.

That said, as stated above it is true that Wagner doesn't want to have other countries involved with the nuclear program more than necessary.

 

[Gudestein]

Ok, then, but what is the driver for initiating the project in earnest? IOTL it was WW2. Einstein got involved to have the belgian uranium reserves removed. That could only happen1.5-2 years late ITTL

 

[AugMag]

Good TL. Keep up the good work! Can't wait for the next update!

 

[CrimsonKing]

Ok, then, but what is the driver for initiating the project in earnest? IOTL it was WW2. Einstein got involved to have the belgian uranium reserves removed. That could only happen1.5-2 years late ITTL

Future updates will discuss this. Perhaps you're right about it ending up being delayed.

Good TL. Keep up the good work! Can't wait for the next update!

Thank you. It will be posted soon.

 

[Gudestein]

Future updates will discuss this. Perhaps you're right about it ending up being delayed.

Thank you. It will be posted soon.

I obviously dont know your long term plan, but the Manhattan project on time provides sone serious constraints on axis victory time lines. Just trying to help, not to be obnoxious.
Look forward to the next update.

 

[Linense]

I obviously dont know your long term plan, but the Manhattan project on time provides sone serious constraints on axis victory time lines. Just trying to help, not to be obnoxious.
Look forward to the next update.

A way to sabotage the Manhattan Project: Heydrich manages to put several spies to blow up the Los Alamos National Laboratory, after other German infiltrators sending the crucial atomic information obtained by US scientists in Los Alamos to Berlin, via radio. After all, TTL Heydrich has achieved great mastery of industrial espionage over US industrial conglomerates.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

On the other hand blowing up a US lab is not a good way to keep cordial relations. Which is an important goal of Wagner.

 

[Linense]

On the other hand blowing up a US lab is not a good way to keep cordial relations. Which is an important goal of Wagner.

But if Heydrich makes the explosion look like the work of the Soviets or the British...

 

[skarosianlifeform]

The British would not do that against their US ally. The Soviets, maybe.

Still, if it fails, it might backfire spectacularly.

 

[cortz#9]

If Heydrich could sabotage the Manhattan project and make it look like it was the Soviets trying to make it look like it was the Germans, that would be a hell of a coup de grace and a very impressive feather in his cap.

 

[Gudestein]

I Think you guys are asking a little too much of heydrich.

 

[cortz#9]

I Think you guys are asking a little too much of heydrich.

Probably but if Heydrich's intelligence network picked up on just one of the Soviet spies working on the Manhattan and leaked this info to the US after a sabotage mission, the US would most likely blame the Soviets but its a big if that Heydrich could find out about the Soviet moles.
A very big if.

 

[CrimsonKing]

I obviously dont know your long term plan, but the Manhattan project on time provides sone serious constraints on axis victory time lines. Just trying to help, not to be obnoxious.
Look forward to the next update.

I understand that. I will look into the matter and if it seems the changes of this TL would result in it being delayed, the plot will be modified accordingly.

A way to sabotage the Manhattan Project: Heydrich manages to put several spies to blow up the Los Alamos National Laboratory, after other German infiltrators sending the crucial atomic information obtained by US scientists in Los Alamos to Berlin, via radio. After all, TTL Heydrich has achieved great mastery of industrial espionage over US industrial conglomerates.

On the other hand blowing up a US lab is not a good way to keep cordial relations. Which is an important goal of Wagner.

But if Heydrich makes the explosion look like the work of the Soviets or the British...

The British would not do that against their US ally. The Soviets, maybe.

Still, if it fails, it might backfire spectacularly.

If Heydrich could sabotage the Manhattan project and make it look like it was the Soviets trying to make it look like it was the Germans, that would be a hell of a coup de grace and a very impressive feather in his cap.

I Think you guys are asking a little too much of heydrich.

Probably but if Heydrich's intelligence network picked up on just one of the Soviet spies working on the Manhattan and leaked this info to the US after a sabotage mission, the US would most likely blame the Soviets but its a big if that Heydrich could find out about the Soviet moles.
A very big if.

Such an operation, while highly risky, isn't entirely out of the question at some point, given that this is a matter of nuclear weapons.

 

[Pylon_Mountain]

Less risky and probably easier would be trying to sabotage things around the Manhattan project. It isn't and cannot be completely resource independent, so things like delays in recieving fissile material could slow down the project. It wouldn't be a killer, but in the race to the bomb every day helps. Another possibility would be to sabotage the development of heavy bombers, even at this early stage it will probably be clear to everyone that the eventual atomic bomb will be heavy, so much so that the B-29 was the first American bomber that could carry them over significant distances. Delaying the introduction of heavy bombers would then mean that even if the Americans get the bomb first they may not have anything that could carry it far enough to threaten Germany.

 

[ppaul16]

What would be the US motivation to work on the Manhattan Project at the same rate and level of resources as OTL?
After they realized an atomic bomb was theoretically possible of course the US would want one, but with the US not at war with the Germans it probably wouldn't be seen as urgent.

 

[CrimsonKing]

Less risky and probably easier would be trying to sabotage things around the Manhattan project. It isn't and cannot be completely resource independent, so things like delays in recieving fissile material could slow down the project. It wouldn't be a killer, but in the race to the bomb every day helps. Another possibility would be to sabotage the development of heavy bombers, even at this early stage it will probably be clear to everyone that the eventual atomic bomb will be heavy, so much so that the B-29 was the first American bomber that could carry them over significant distances. Delaying the introduction of heavy bombers would then mean that even if the Americans get the bomb first they may not have anything that could carry it far enough to threaten Germany.

The Abwehr will of course also be examining such options.

What would be the US motivation to work on the Manhattan Project at the same rate and level of resources as OTL?
After they realized an atomic bomb was theoretically possible of course the US would want one, but with the US not at war with the Germans it probably wouldn't be seen as urgent.

US thinking is to be covered in upcoming chapters. As I said above, perhaps the Manhattan Project does end up coming to fruition later than OTL.

 

[Keb]

What would be the US motivation to work on the Manhattan Project at the same rate and level of resources as OTL?
After they realized an atomic bomb was theoretically possible of course the US would want one, but with the US not at war with the Germans it probably wouldn't be seen as urgent.

One option to deal with reduced resources is for the project to pursue a single type of atomic bomb, rather than two models in parallel. So, instead of developing both the gun-type and the implosion-type, the project goes ahead with only one model. In that case, the gun-type is simpler and easier to produce (even if it results in very, very heavy devices) - choosing to pursue the gun-type could conceivably lead to the project being on-schedule compared to OTL with less resources.

It would be more damaging post-project - the gun-type was abandoned for a reason, the implosion-type is overall better in all aspects and not developing it would mean having to develop it all over again (albeit with the advantage of experience).

 

[CrimsonKing]

One option to deal with reduced resources is for the project to pursue a single type of atomic bomb, rather than two models in parallel. So, instead of developing both the gun-type and the implosion-type, the project goes ahead with only one model. In that case, the gun-type is simpler and easier to produce (even if it results in very, very heavy devices) - choosing to pursue the gun-type could conceivably lead to the project being on-schedule compared to OTL with less resources.

It would be more damaging post-project - the gun-type was abandoned for a reason, the implosion-type is overall better in all aspects and not developing it would mean having to develop it all over again (albeit with the advantage of experience).

An interesting idea. I will keep it in mind.

Disclaimer: Inevitably given the subject of this TL, some of the actions and statements made will be reminiscent of contemporary political controversies surrounding the European Union. Nothing here should be taken as an endorsement, rejection, or commentary on any of the positions of the participants or the events themselves.

That said, on to the next update.

Part V
Clash of the Titans​

A New Order Coalesces

A train carrying coal mined in northern France to the Ruhr.


“A new Europe is taking shape, one which will allow the heritage of the entire continent, united as it has not been since the time of Charlemagne, to prosper and thrive in harmony. It is only natural that in this process, Germany should assume a leading role.”

-Walter Kohler, speaking at the inauguration of the European Common Market​

The end of the first phase of the Second Global War marked a truly epochal shift in the balance of global power. For generations, it had been the United States which had been the world’s leading economic and technological powerhouse. It was to America that most minds went when the word “opportunity” was mentioned, and with the recovery from the Great Depression in the US presided over by Franklin Roosevelt, it had seemed that the trend would continue on the course it had been on before the Crash of 1929. To the extent that the United States was perceived to have a competitor in the sphere of economics, it was the world-spanning British Empire, which had exercised preeminence in the prior century, and which, albeit at great cost, had emerged on the victorious side of the Great War. With the outcome sealed at the signing of the Treaty of Tehran, these seemingly unshakeable realities were cast aside.(a) From the Rock of Gibraltar in the west to the borders of the USSR in the east, Wagner and his NSVP had created a fascist Europe possessing a vast colonial empire free at last from the shackles of blockade.

Walter Kohler.​

“Europe - and not America - will from now on be the land of unlimited possibilities,” he had declared upon being told of the French request for an armistice in May. But there was in fact considerable dispute over how the vast area now at Germany’s disposal should be optimally put to use. Early on, proposals first for the crude plunder of France and the Low Countries and then the imposition of heavy reparations had been rejected. In the end, the raw materials required for the continued functioning of the German home front had been acquired through trade with the Soviet Union. The only items seized during the occupation were stocks of weapons, such as the famous Char B1 heavy tank, which mass-produced in the period prior to war with the USSR was to provide invaluable as a support vehicle for the Heer. This did not mean however, that the purpose of Wagner’s designs for the rest of Europe had changed, merely that the means were to be altered for reasons of expediency. “It is the Chancellor’s intention that all the rest work for Germany, although they may be well rewarded for their efforts,” remarked Fritz Todt.

A Char B1 in German use, one of many weapons of foreign manufacture utilized by the Volkswehr. ​

The heart of the new Grossraum (“Great space”) was to be made up of the advanced economies of western Europe-France, Holland (the two possessing between them the former Belgium, a country which, not surprisingly given the role it had played in the last war, many in Berlin were pleased to see disappear) and Denmark. Ruled by collaborationist regimes, the entire area was to be integrated with the Rhineland, forming “a giant extension of the Ruhr,” allowing the Third Reich at last to compete on an equal footing with the British Empire and the United States. In this, Wagner was greatly aided by Walter Kohler, a longtime associate whose acquaintance he had first made shortly after the Beer Hall Putsch. Kohler was charged with the task of implementing the desired integration, and ensuring that once integrated, a high degree of responsiveness to the demands of future war efforts was achieved. His method for achieving this was the innocuously-named European Common Market (ECM), proclaimed officially in early 1942 and headquartered in Luxembourg, which aimed to remove customs and trade barriers and unify the central banks of the member nations into one central bank. For all the celebration in the Reich Chancellery and beyond, however, the question of how the supply of the commodities necessary for the ECM to function as intended was to be fully secured, given the necessity of their import remained unresolved.


Notes:
(a) The Wages of Destruction says on page 383 “If it had been possible to preserve activity at pre-war levels, the German European bloc would have comprised an economy with a combined GDP greater than that of either the United States or the British Empire.”

 

[Cregan]

Norway isn't included?