There are many 9/11-related threads on this site, but I don’t think I’ve seen this scenario discussed. First, some background:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592318.2014.945634?src=recsys&journalCode=fswi20
Now let’s discuss a hypothetical timeline where Yeltsin and his advisers decide that continuing to supply Najibullah government with fuel and food serves Russia’s interests. Najibullah‘s government doesn’t collapse and the war ends in a draw — Kabul, through both force of arms and reconciliation is able to hold on to northern Afghanistan but lacks the power to hold onto the Pashtun areas next to Pakistan. Sure, Kabul claims that they are part of Afghanistan, but de facto “Pashtustan” is a Taliban-controlled, Pakistan-backed break-away Wahhabist state.
The Taliban still give refuge to Osma Bin-Laden and Al-Qaeda and they still perform a 9/11-like attack on USA around the year 2001 (and to make things simpler, yes, let’s assume G.W. Bush is still president in this ATL)
What would the American leadership do now? Would they ally with Najibullah (or whomever is his successor) after supporting the opposing side for so long? How would it go down with the US public/America’s Middle East allies, especially if the Kabul government is still at least nominally communist? Would Najibullah/his successor even agree to join forces with USA against the Taliban if Washington made that offer?
If US doesn’t ally with communist Kabul does it do something stupid like declaring war on both the Afghan government AND the Taliban at the same time? Or does it claim that the 9/11 attacks were organized by Al-Qaeda on orders from Afghan communists?
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592318.2014.945634?src=recsys&journalCode=fswi20
In the end, the Communist government lost the civil war in the 1990s in no small part because Yeltsin’s Russian government cut off food and fuel aid it was providing to Kabul.
Now let’s discuss a hypothetical timeline where Yeltsin and his advisers decide that continuing to supply Najibullah government with fuel and food serves Russia’s interests. Najibullah‘s government doesn’t collapse and the war ends in a draw — Kabul, through both force of arms and reconciliation is able to hold on to northern Afghanistan but lacks the power to hold onto the Pashtun areas next to Pakistan. Sure, Kabul claims that they are part of Afghanistan, but de facto “Pashtustan” is a Taliban-controlled, Pakistan-backed break-away Wahhabist state.
The Taliban still give refuge to Osma Bin-Laden and Al-Qaeda and they still perform a 9/11-like attack on USA around the year 2001 (and to make things simpler, yes, let’s assume G.W. Bush is still president in this ATL)
What would the American leadership do now? Would they ally with Najibullah (or whomever is his successor) after supporting the opposing side for so long? How would it go down with the US public/America’s Middle East allies, especially if the Kabul government is still at least nominally communist? Would Najibullah/his successor even agree to join forces with USA against the Taliban if Washington made that offer?
If US doesn’t ally with communist Kabul does it do something stupid like declaring war on both the Afghan government AND the Taliban at the same time? Or does it claim that the 9/11 attacks were organized by Al-Qaeda on orders from Afghan communists?
