Jogaila's second wife Anna of Cili wasn't very healthy, so let's assume she dies during late 1405, over decade earlier than IOTL, leaving no children. King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania is thus in need to find another spouse and agewise best candidates are:
-Elizabeth of Görlitz, niece of Wenceslaus and Sigismund of Luxembourg (Jagiełło asked for her hand IOTL after death of Anna of Cili, Elizabeth refused to marry him, as for her he was pagan barbarian savage from Lithuanian forest, in 1405 she is much younger and pissibly has less to say about it, but we could assume that Elizabeth would be no more enthusiastic about that match and it would not happen).
-Catherine of Pomerania, sister of Eric, King of Denmark, Norway and Sweden. She is roughly of the same age as Elizabeth of Görlitz, and her brother kept good relations with Poland, like his other relatives from Słupsk line of House of Griffins. At the time of POD talks of her marriage with Wittelsbach duke have not started yet. At the time Margaret of Denmark is still alive, but importance of such marriage should be clear also for her. Count Palatine of Neumarkt is not the same as King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania. Also Eric's native Duchy of Słupsk was at the time Poland's fief and Polish access to the Baltic before Pomerelia was reconquered from Teutonic Order was through the lands of Duchy of Słupsk. Thus there is good reason for making family ties between Jogaila and Griffins.
So let's say option B happens. What would be effect? Catherine, unlike Elizabeth of Görlitz, lacked blood of Casimir III, but she is not Elżbieta Granowska or Zofia Holszańska either. She is of Royal blood and her marriage with King would be seen as equal. Thus son(s) born from that marriage should be recognized as heirs to the Polish crown. Jogaila tried it also with his OTL sons, but ITTL it would be much easier for several reasons:
-they're born from mother of Royal blood
-they have no older half-sister with better claims, who need to be disinherited.
-they'll be much older than Jogaila's OTL sons
-Zbigniew Oleśnicki is not important figure yet. IOTL at the time of birth of Jogaila's sons he was bishop of Cracow, most important (pollitically, in Church's hierarchy he was lower than Archbishop of Gniezno, but due to Cracow's status as capital of Poland he has more influence of politics) hierarch of Polish Church, and in addition he was ambitious and talented man and main opponent of recognizing hereditary rights of Jogaila's sons to Polish throne.
In ITTL conditions Jogaila likely achieve his goal and Jagiellons would rule Poland as hereditary monarchs, like they did in Lithuania. Also there is no need for regency after death of Władysław II (and again, no occassion for Oleśnicki to play such role like IOTL). These are effects on Poland ( someting to add @krieger ?) But what about Scandinavia? IOTL after Eric of Pomerania was deposed he was replaced by his nephew, Christopher of Bavaria, son of Catherine, who would never be born ITTL. After deposition of Eric Christopher only legitimate descendant of Valdemar IV available. ITTL the only legitimate descendants of Valdemar IV would be descendants of Jogaila. So would Kalmar Union stick with semi-dynastic succession and elect Jagiellon (perhaps one of younger sons) as their monarch, or would Scandinavians see such candidate as potentially too strong and dynastic principle would be abandoned?
-Elizabeth of Görlitz, niece of Wenceslaus and Sigismund of Luxembourg (Jagiełło asked for her hand IOTL after death of Anna of Cili, Elizabeth refused to marry him, as for her he was pagan barbarian savage from Lithuanian forest, in 1405 she is much younger and pissibly has less to say about it, but we could assume that Elizabeth would be no more enthusiastic about that match and it would not happen).
-Catherine of Pomerania, sister of Eric, King of Denmark, Norway and Sweden. She is roughly of the same age as Elizabeth of Görlitz, and her brother kept good relations with Poland, like his other relatives from Słupsk line of House of Griffins. At the time of POD talks of her marriage with Wittelsbach duke have not started yet. At the time Margaret of Denmark is still alive, but importance of such marriage should be clear also for her. Count Palatine of Neumarkt is not the same as King of Poland and Grand Duke of Lithuania. Also Eric's native Duchy of Słupsk was at the time Poland's fief and Polish access to the Baltic before Pomerelia was reconquered from Teutonic Order was through the lands of Duchy of Słupsk. Thus there is good reason for making family ties between Jogaila and Griffins.
So let's say option B happens. What would be effect? Catherine, unlike Elizabeth of Görlitz, lacked blood of Casimir III, but she is not Elżbieta Granowska or Zofia Holszańska either. She is of Royal blood and her marriage with King would be seen as equal. Thus son(s) born from that marriage should be recognized as heirs to the Polish crown. Jogaila tried it also with his OTL sons, but ITTL it would be much easier for several reasons:
-they're born from mother of Royal blood
-they have no older half-sister with better claims, who need to be disinherited.
-they'll be much older than Jogaila's OTL sons
-Zbigniew Oleśnicki is not important figure yet. IOTL at the time of birth of Jogaila's sons he was bishop of Cracow, most important (pollitically, in Church's hierarchy he was lower than Archbishop of Gniezno, but due to Cracow's status as capital of Poland he has more influence of politics) hierarch of Polish Church, and in addition he was ambitious and talented man and main opponent of recognizing hereditary rights of Jogaila's sons to Polish throne.
In ITTL conditions Jogaila likely achieve his goal and Jagiellons would rule Poland as hereditary monarchs, like they did in Lithuania. Also there is no need for regency after death of Władysław II (and again, no occassion for Oleśnicki to play such role like IOTL). These are effects on Poland ( someting to add @krieger ?) But what about Scandinavia? IOTL after Eric of Pomerania was deposed he was replaced by his nephew, Christopher of Bavaria, son of Catherine, who would never be born ITTL. After deposition of Eric Christopher only legitimate descendant of Valdemar IV available. ITTL the only legitimate descendants of Valdemar IV would be descendants of Jogaila. So would Kalmar Union stick with semi-dynastic succession and elect Jagiellon (perhaps one of younger sons) as their monarch, or would Scandinavians see such candidate as potentially too strong and dynastic principle would be abandoned?
